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Nate RFB posted:In the time since 2012 I've cut my cable; what are the general suggestions for streams and/or twitter accounts to follow election night to find out when states are called? I'm trying to remember when 2012 was called in general because I don't remember staying up too late but it was probably still like midnight or something. 2012 was called the instant California polls closed, so 8pm Pacific, 11pm Eastern.
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Nov 2, 2016 18:09
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canepazzo posted:https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/793860641887051777 That's a bit more narrow than I'd like to see :/.
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Nov 2, 2016 18:09
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OddObserver posted:What in the world are Indiana and Kentucky thinking !? I can't speak for Indiana, but half of Kentucky is in a different time zone.
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Nov 2, 2016 18:08
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theflyingorc posted:OK, so - If Trump doesn't pick up NH, WI or CO then she's already won before you get to Nevada.
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Nov 2, 2016 18:09
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FactsAreUseless posted:Anyone else want to say this? Nah I'm cool
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Nov 2, 2016 18:09
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Do phone banks regularly call cell phones? I've never gotten a poll or survey and no one I know has either, and we're all cell phone only sorts.
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Nov 2, 2016 18:09
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Built 4 Cuban Linux posted:This thread has too much digging through the crosstabs to unskew polls. No poo poo. The election is less than a week away, and you're probably not a better armchair pollster than that company. If the polls are right, Hilldog wins. If they're wrong, it will be because the pollsters made a universal error that by definition couldn't be predicted. So who cares.
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Nov 2, 2016 18:09
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WampaLord posted:Mom? Palace Station is pretty ghetto but holy hell that seafood bar is  and I'm not even a big seafood fan.
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Nov 2, 2016 18:09
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theflyingorc posted:OK, so - Add an hour and an hour and a half to any state you think might be too close to call immediately. Unless it turns into a bloodbath 9 is about the earliest to expect to know the results. As always it's not going to tick to 270 until after 11 when the west coast comes in.
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Nov 2, 2016 18:10
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FactsAreUseless posted:Anyone else want to say this? Say the words FAU: Radical D&D Moderating. 
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Nov 2, 2016 18:10
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GalacticAcid posted:You'd likely enjoy this two-part conversation between Obama and Marilynne Robinson if you haven't read or listened to it yet - Part I, Part II. Thanks for this.
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Nov 2, 2016 18:10
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PT6A posted:Why do you think that? Doesn't everyone screen calls to some degree? Some random examples of a variation would be poor people with debt collector calls are more likely to screen, while olds who don't know how smartphones really work would be less likely. Also what the other guy said about Spanish speakers not responding.
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Nov 2, 2016 18:10
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Since I know other people are going to ask about this: apparently the post didn't get reported right away, and the TFR mod only found out about it a few minutes ago, and then I dug up the unedited version that was quoted in this thread. He was, in fact, banned almost immediately for it. TFR takes that sort of post really seriously, which is also why the admins generally let moderators make most of the actual probation/banning decisions. They actually know the forums and the posters in question. Edit: I also realize that I should have just reported the post or PMed it to the mod myself, but legit didn't think of it at all. Nobody's perfect.
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Nov 2, 2016 18:12
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CascadeBeta posted:I don't know if it's unskewing to go "Hey this poll of loving Las Vegas doesn't have a meaningful Hispanic response." Its also notable that Clark County is an enormous portion of Nevada. If you dive deep into the crosstabs and say "hey, in this Florida poll, lower class hispanic millennials with a college degree are voting Trump! That doesn't sound right, so the whole thing is invalid", then you are doing it wrong. At that tiny level you just figure the errors in each small subgroup will offset each other and you are still good at the state level, and if its off, well just throw it into the averages anyway and it won't move the needle much. Clark County is a massive chunk of Nevada, and if you try to tell me its going Trump, I don't need to go any further, the pollster hosed up somewhere.
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Nov 2, 2016 18:12
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Julio Cruz posted:If Trump doesn't pick up NH, WI or CO then she's already won before you get to Nevada. You're correct, I thought that the count of 258 already included Wisconsin - it doesn't. Trump needs to flip Pennsylvania to have any sort of chance, which is basically where he's been all year.
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Nov 2, 2016 18:12
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FactsAreUseless posted:TFR mods take that stuff really seriously, don't think they're ignoring it. makes sense have there been any others? checking the perma list is kinda difficult since it's so clogged w/ dare FactsAreUseless posted:Since I know other people are going to ask about this: apparently the post didn't get reported right away, and the TFR mod only found out about it a few minutes ago, and then I dug up the unedited version that was quoted in this thread. He was, in fact, banned almost immediately for it. TFR takes that sort of post really seriously, which is also why the admins generally let moderators make most of the actual probation/banning decisions. They actually know the forums and the posters in question. hell yeah
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Nov 2, 2016 18:14
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farraday posted:Add an hour and an hour and a half to any state you think might be too close to call immediately. If Clinton takes all the swing states and upsets in Arizona it could potentially end at 9pm:  e: removed Nevada case; I had forgotten to disable Hawaii Smackbilly fucked around with this message at 18:16 on Nov 2, 2016 |
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Nov 2, 2016 18:14
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WampaLord posted:No matter what the result, this truth remains. I look forward to the post analysis by places like FiveThirtyEight. He will just hide behind the idea of statistics and probably "it said it could happen not that it would happen". The problem is that in many cases modeling based on polls without the raw data is a fool's errand because polls have particular biases which are not random and do not lend themselves to correction via statistical analysis. He needs the raw data, not published aggregates and cross tabs.
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Nov 2, 2016 18:14
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FactsAreUseless posted:Since I know other people are going to ask about this: apparently the post didn't get reported right away, and the TFR mod only found out about it a few minutes ago, and then I dug up the unedited version that was quoted in this thread. He was, in fact, banned almost immediately for it. TFR takes that sort of post really seriously, which is also why the admins generally let moderators make most of the actual probation/banning decisions. They actually know the forums and the posters in question. There is even a sticky in TFR saying that threats towards presidential candidates are immediately punishable by a ban and probation. The comments in this thread about it made me see if I could find the post just out of curiosity, and I think reading posts in TFR about the election has scarred my soul.
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Nov 2, 2016 18:14
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Renon Vesir posted:I can't speak for Indiana, but half of Kentucky is in a different time zone. That's actually worse, though, it makes it 5pm local.
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Nov 2, 2016 18:15
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seiferguy posted:Palace Station is pretty ghetto but holy hell that seafood bar is At this point I honestly would think you are my mom, but she's not a Seahawks fan. Seriously, she loves Palace Station.
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Nov 2, 2016 18:15
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OH gently caress THIS MOUSE, double post
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Nov 2, 2016 18:15
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H.P. Hovercraft posted:makes sense
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Nov 2, 2016 18:15
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Northjayhawk posted:Its also notable that Clark County is an enormous portion of Nevada. If you dive deep into the crosstabs and say "hey, in this Florida poll, lower class hispanic millennials with a college degree are voting Trump! That doesn't sound right, so the whole thing is invalid", then you are doing it wrong. At that tiny level you just figure the errors in each small subgroup will offset each other and you are still good at the state level, and if its off, well just throw it into the averages anyway and it won't move the needle much. And again - if we take that pollster uncritically - Hillary wins Florida. We don't NEED Nevada to be unskewed.
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Nov 2, 2016 18:15
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Mr Hootington posted:The hotel is overpriced too. It's not all that bad, comparatively. But hotel prices in Vegas are pretty much not worth looking into because they're all over the map based on any number of things.
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Nov 2, 2016 18:15
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DaveWoo posted:Oh, and Trump's literally attacking reporters by name now gently caress you Trump for inciting a mob to abuse a reporter/reporters
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Nov 2, 2016 18:15
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Smackbilly posted:If Clinton takes all the swing states, it could hit 270 at 10pm (with Nevada), or possibly 9pm (with an upset in Arizona): That's a stupid scenario depending on the idea all states are able to be called as soon as the polls are closed.
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Nov 2, 2016 18:17
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Khisanth Magus posted:There is even a sticky in TFR saying that threats towards presidential candidates are immediately punishable by a ban and probation. Makes sense, I assume lowtax doesn't want to talk to the secret service every other week.
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Nov 2, 2016 18:17
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FactsAreUseless posted:Not many. By all reports, TFR is one of the best-behaved gun forums on the internet. I don't have any basis for comparison, but there's a reason it's still part of the forums. iirc there's just that one murder/suicide incident from like '06 where the guy asked tfr about some kinda ammo even yospos has a higher deathcount
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Nov 2, 2016 18:18
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FactsAreUseless posted:Not many. By all reports, TFR is one of the best-behaved gun forums on the internet. I don't have any basis for comparison, but there's a reason it's still part of the forums. http://www.m4carbine.net/forumdisplay.php?60-General-Discussion https://www.ar15.com/forums/ freckle fucked around with this message at 18:20 on Nov 2, 2016 |
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Nov 2, 2016 18:18
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FactsAreUseless posted:Not many. By all reports, TFR is one of the best-behaved gun forums on the internet. I don't have any basis for comparison, but there's a reason it's still part of the forums.
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Nov 2, 2016 18:18
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Northjayhawk posted:Its also notable that Clark County is an enormous portion of Nevada. If you dive deep into the crosstabs and say "hey, in this Florida poll, lower class hispanic millennials with a college degree are voting Trump! That doesn't sound right, so the whole thing is invalid", then you are doing it wrong. At that tiny level you just figure the errors in each small subgroup will offset each other and you are still good at the state level, and if its off, well just throw it into the averages anyway and it won't move the needle much. We also have actual early voting numbers coming in that have the Democrats building up a lead similar to what they had in 2012 when Obama carried it by 6.5%
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Nov 2, 2016 18:18
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Shifty Pony posted:He will just hide behind the idea of statistics and probably "it said it could happen not that it would happen". The question is - how do you call Nate Silver "wrong"? The only way you can prove that a probability distribution is right or wrong is to run it thousands of times and noting that it roughly converges to the point you set it at. You can't run iterations of an election. Smackbilly posted:If Clinton takes all the swing states and upsets in Arizona it could potentially end at 9pm:
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Nov 2, 2016 18:19
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Smackbilly posted:If Clinton takes all the swing states and upsets in Arizona it could potentially end at 9pm The states don't just have to close, the have to be called, which will happen long after 9 PM for some of those states. Here is a timeline showing when NBC called some states in 2012. Obviously it won't be exactly the same this year, but that's a ballpark. EDIT: Here's a list of the AP calls from 2012, which is a lot more complete/legible than what I linked to above. yoctoontologist fucked around with this message at 18:22 on Nov 2, 2016 |
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Nov 2, 2016 18:20
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theflyingorc posted:The question is - how do you call Nate Silver "wrong"? Easily, you point at all his bullshit punditry articles. The model itself is just doing it's thing, but there's also an argument to be made that his model bakes in way too much risk of "all the polls are wrong."
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Nov 2, 2016 18:20
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OddObserver posted:That's actually worse, though, it makes it 5pm local. Nah, the times are all in EST. Part of Kentucky is EST and part is CST. So, polls close at 6pm for all inhabitants. Still dumb but not that dumb.
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Nov 2, 2016 18:21
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theflyingorc posted:The question is - how do you call Nate Silver "wrong"? In about 2120 after another 100 years of presidential elections, our descendants will probably have enough data to announce that Nate Silver was too conservative in his model. To which, everyone around them will ask "who is Nate Silver?"
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Nov 2, 2016 18:21
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theflyingorc posted:The question is - how do you call Nate Silver "wrong"? The probability thing is deceptive though because if you did the actual election 500 times you'd probably get the same result 500 times. The probabilities reflect uncertainty, not random chance.
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Nov 2, 2016 18:22
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OddObserver posted:That's actually worse, though, it makes it 5pm local. My state isn't exactly known for being smart. The western half of the state shuts down an hour after the eastern half does, as they're an hour 'behind'. If you go by EST only, half of the state is done at 6:00 and the other is done at 7:00.
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Nov 2, 2016 18:23
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Clinton +6 in the best WI poll.
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Nov 2, 2016 18:23
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