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e: forums double posted for some reason
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Nov 2, 2016 18:34
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mcmagic posted:Ron Johnson is the dumbest motherfucker in the Senate. He should be polling at like 30%. You do know that Feingold consistently never won races by more than 2-3%, right? Of course you do. Surely you don't intend to blame this on Hillary. BI NOW GAY LATER fucked around with this message at 18:36 on Nov 2, 2016 |
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Nov 2, 2016 18:34
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HorseRenoir posted:ugh. I'm sure Feingold will win but gently caress WI for making this even remotely close
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Nov 2, 2016 18:34
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Clinton ran against someone who wasn't a Real Republican so the results don't count. She didn't really "win." That's going to be story, delegitimizing the Democratic President as always. After today's polls I'm definitely way more worried about the Senate than the White House. Seeing Feingold lose to loving Ron Johnson would be incredibly sad.
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Nov 2, 2016 18:35
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BI NOW GAY LATER posted:You do know that Feingold consistently never won races by more than 2-3%, right? Of course you do.
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Nov 2, 2016 18:36
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Email effect: https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/793868464733716480 https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/793865469111468034
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Nov 2, 2016 18:36
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FactsAreUseless posted:No, I mean what do you want them to do? suspend accounts that do poo poo like that?
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Nov 2, 2016 18:36
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Antti posted:Clinton ran against someone who wasn't a Real Republican so the results don't count. She didn't really "win." That's going to be story, delegitimizing the Democratic President as always. They do count of course but she is also very lucky to be running against Trump.
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Nov 2, 2016 18:37
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https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/793868852027269120 
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Nov 2, 2016 18:36
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Are there any polls out on who people expect to win? I remember reading that those are more predictive than "who do u like more lol" polls.
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Nov 2, 2016 18:37
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BiohazrD posted:suspend accounts that do poo poo like that?
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Nov 2, 2016 18:37
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The Shortest Path posted:As a NH resident, why do all of these maps keep showing NH as a near guaranteed blue state? We aren't anywhere near that liberal unfortunately. We are during presidential election years. Obama crushed McCain and beat Romney who had ties to the state and was basically an ideal NH Republican. Democrats have had the governors mansion for a very long time, the Senate is close and the house flips every other election. Hillary will destroy Trump. I'm not so convinced about Hassan vs Ayotte but Trump is too crazy for our breed of Republicans. We like to pretend we aren't racist or socially regressive. After all if you have no minorities how can you be racist? Just as long as you don't raise taxes or try to have a tax plan that is fair.
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Nov 2, 2016 18:37
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farraday posted:Add an hour and an hour and a half to any state you think might be too close to call immediately. unless clinton actually wins nc bigly by like 6+ it won't get called before 10 fl will take forever because people will still be in line when polls in ca close networks won't make an official call until 11 anyway
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Nov 2, 2016 18:38
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*Works two jobs to make ends meet* + *Gets no time off; paid or otherwise* = *Is lazy* - A Republican
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Nov 2, 2016 18:39
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https://twitter.com/MrEschatologist/status/793869476844474368
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Nov 2, 2016 18:39
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iospace posted:Email effect: Are people really that wishy-washy?
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Nov 2, 2016 18:39
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Roland Jones posted:Yeah, given that at this point "Trump wins" is practically synonymous with "almost all the polls are wrong", the question of why his model rates the likelihood of catastrophic polling failure at 30% arises. In 2012 at this point the polling average put Obama-Romney at 1%. The final margin was 4%. So there's good grounds to expect the final polls to be a few percent off from the value - and while it was in the Dems' favour last time, the model doesn't know or believe that it will be this election. Add on that the Electoral College isn't as favourable as in 2012, and it's easy to me to see that a Clinton lead of 2-4% now might turn out to be a tie or a Trump lead on the day of the election with a probability like about 30%, and that this might lead to a Trump win.
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Nov 2, 2016 18:40
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Admiral Ray posted:Are there any polls out on who people expect to win? I remember reading that those are more predictive than "who do u like more lol" polls. On the USC/LAT one, which is the one most positive for Trump consistently, the prediction is 54.2 C to 41.3 T. The lowest it has been, during Pneumonia, was 49.7 C to 44.8 T Every other poll that I can see is expecting Hillary to win 60%+ E: this is now canon
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Nov 2, 2016 18:40
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FactsAreUseless posted:What, specifically, would be the bannable action? Presumably, those tweets are coming from accounts with a veneer of authenticity. Pretending to be the local Democratic party, or something similar. Let's start with that.
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Nov 2, 2016 18:39
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TARGET REMAINS I REPEAT: TARGET REMAINS
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Nov 2, 2016 18:40
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Alec Bald Snatch posted:fl will take forever because people will still be in line when polls in ca close FL is 3 hours ahead of CA though?
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Nov 2, 2016 18:40
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BiohazrD posted:Presumably, those tweets are coming from accounts with a veneer of authenticity. Pretending to be the local Democratic party, or something similar. Let's start with that.
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Nov 2, 2016 18:40
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I think I'm going to commit to this map: http://www.270towin.com/maps/D3722 I am not going to put effort into finding out about those tiny districts in Maine and Nebraska, and they will not decide the election.
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Nov 2, 2016 18:40
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FactsAreUseless posted:I think I see a flaw in the assumptions that drive how you talk to McMagic, and the new Double McMagic and Classic Southern Chicken McMagic. lol
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Nov 2, 2016 18:40
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https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/793870363935420417
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Nov 2, 2016 18:41
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Covok posted:Are people really that wishy-washy? Just noise. 500 people makes for about a 5% MOE.
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Nov 2, 2016 18:41
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Covok posted:Are people really that wishy-washy? No, polls also measure enthusiasm. You're more likely to answer a poll when your candidate is doing well and vice versa.
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Nov 2, 2016 18:41
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Eugene V. Dabs posted:FL is 3 hours ahead of CA though? yeah people will likely still be in line to vote at 11pm eastern in florida, as happened in 2012
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Nov 2, 2016 18:41
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I actually think voter disenfranchisement like fraudulent phone calls and the like is illegal in several states. Edit: Yeah it is it's part of the electoral fraud / misinformation laws.
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Nov 2, 2016 18:42
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FactsAreUseless posted:Okay, so you're banning people who misrepresent their identity? Sure. They already do this when people were grabbing celeb names in the early days
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Nov 2, 2016 18:42
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FactsAreUseless posted:Okay, so you're banning people who misrepresent their identity? Can't Twitter just, like, ban people at their own discretion for attempting to defraud people of their vote? Do they have to rules lawyer it? I'm sure their TOS must have some 'we can ban you at any time at our own discretion' clause to cover their rear end.
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Nov 2, 2016 18:42
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https://twitter.com/hollybdc/status/793853958716522496 Well ok then
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Nov 2, 2016 18:43
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Gotta agree with that Independence Day reference, but to make it more SA suitable: We're in the part of the anime final battle where the villain has revealed their final form and blasted the hero. But then the hero staggers back up and says something like "I'll never let you win!" and gains power from all their friends, letting them use one final attack that barely defeats the villain (or maybe just blasts them to pieces? who knows). Then they wake up like three weeks later.
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Nov 2, 2016 18:43
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Covok posted:Are people really that wishy-washy? Part of the problem with polling this year is people not picking up the phone and/or hanging up on the caller.
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Nov 2, 2016 18:43
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I'm starting to think Trump is going to win and it terrifies me. Any recent (post email) decent polling of MI, CO, PA, and NV that I can look at to help myself feel better (or worse). I want to sleep the week away
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Nov 2, 2016 18:44
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FactsAreUseless posted:Okay, so you're banning people who misrepresent their identity? Dude, Twitter isn't some sort of lawyer robot. They're a company, and able to punish things that violate their terms of service. Deliberately impersonating someone or an entity for political purposes should be against their terms of service. Not sure why you're being hung up on this.
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Nov 2, 2016 18:44
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Fangz posted:Just noise. 500 people makes for about a 5% MOE. And 157 people?
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Nov 2, 2016 18:45
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Haha how long before Ecuador stuffs Assange in a duffel and throws him out.
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Nov 2, 2016 18:45
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iospace posted:Part of the problem with polling this year is people not picking up the phone and/or hanging up on the caller. A pollster in C-SPAM said their response rate was 1%. They have to call 100 people to get 1 response.
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Nov 2, 2016 18:45
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https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/793868306373603328 SURPRISE. No one cares.
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Nov 2, 2016 18:45
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