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Very disappointing that Iowa, Wisconsin, and Ohio, which used to be the centers of left-wing populism, are now running towards white nationalism at a faster rate than the rest of the country.
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Nov 2, 2016 20:34
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Bhaal posted:I was wondering, what methods do people here use to go through the local election parts of their ballot? Ballotpedia might help you.
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Nov 2, 2016 20:35
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Furnaceface posted:B-b-b-but emails! I think it's dishonest to paint the email issue as non important, since it did put confidential material at risk. Still, better than Trump.
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Nov 2, 2016 20:35
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Basically she's going to win but with bad margins and no coattails.
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Nov 2, 2016 20:36
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Herstory Begins Now posted:It's really worth noting that that lawsuit predates the wave of sexual assault accusations. That's when all of the 'there's probably nothing here, that just seems too unlikely that a man of his stature (who associates gladly with Epstein and treats women terribly) would do something so stupid.' I mean, I want to think that this country wouldn't nominate a loving child rapist, but that story is about a million times more in line with Trump's character as now known than it was six months ago when all those 'this is probably just someone who wants attention' articles were coming out. Not untrue, I almost noted that in my initial post - but one thing that is very absent from even Trump's dozen current accusers is an accusation of him going past groping into actual rape (rather than sexual assault)*. And this is much more than that - the accusation says that he had women brought up to his room knowingly by other people and served to him like he was a Roman Emperor. I'm not saying that it's impossible for such a thing to have happened, but it would be a severe deviation from the groping that's been in the prior accusations. In short, I wouldn't expect the child case to be the only one that's come out. *this is not meant in any way to diminish the awfulness of Trump's behavior, or to imply that he has "only" committed sexual assault. His behavior is horrific.
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Nov 2, 2016 20:37
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mcmagic posted:Basically she's going to win but with bad margins and no coattails.  Those same polls show Dems winning the senate, but I don't know why I even bother with you at this point. BI NOW GAY LATER fucked around with this message at 20:39 on Nov 2, 2016 |
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Nov 2, 2016 20:37
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Bhaal posted:I was wondering, what methods do people here use to go through the local election parts of their ballot? I already early-voted in California and this part of the ballot took the most research by far. The judges all had identical personal statements about how they believed in fairness, which is nice and all but I really want to know about things like how they feel about minimum sentencing, punitive vs. rehabilitative justice, trying minors as adults, and how cozy they are with the cops and the DAs. I don't know that I made perfect choices. The most useful info I found was their list of endorsements - Policeman's Union = No Thanks, for instance. What state do you live in? We might be able to find some online resources.
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Nov 2, 2016 20:37
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Guy Goodbody posted:That's the plight of you, but it's not fair to suggest that white people don't suffer from poverty in America. yes and since the conversation was more about racism and the metonymy (thanks for the new word TB), that's more what I was referring to. I know white people can be poor because I used to be a poor white kid. I also know it was prooooobably a little easier for me to overcome than it was for the more diverse crowd. Tiny Brontosaurus posted:I already early-voted in California and this part of the ballot took the most research by far. The judges all had identical personal statements about how they believed in fairness, which is nice and all but I really want to know about things like how they feel about minimum sentencing, punitive vs. rehabilitative justice, trying minors as adults, and how cozy they are with the cops and the DAs. I don't know that I made perfect choices. The most useful info I found was their list of endorsements - Policeman's Union = No Thanks, for instance. Just spent hours reading about the judges that are up for retention in my district, and then the local sheriff candidates (incumbent dem domestic abuser or challenger republican lgbt hater) I hate my stupid state.
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Nov 2, 2016 20:38
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Teriyaki Koinku posted:Just stopped by my local Hillary GOTV office to grab signs and stickers/Dem voting guides/etc, I plan on volunteering for phone banking/canvassing tomorrow evening. I just saw the first yard signs go up near me(I've seen some in town, but not out where I live). Surprisingly, it was Hillary, along with a Duckworth sign. No House race signs though since we don't have a Dem candidate.
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Nov 2, 2016 20:37
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Very disappointing that Iowa, Wisconsin, and Ohio, which used to be the centers of left-wing populism, are now running towards white nationalism at a faster rate than the rest of the country. Once the Great White Hope loses and they are utterly humiliated, they'll slink back under a rock for a few cycles and be even less relevant when they do resurface. White nationalists, that is
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Nov 2, 2016 20:38
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mcmagic posted:Basically she's going to win but with bad margins and no coattails. The lean states all collapsed promptly yesterday anyhow. The Senate races might still be salvageable, but you can guarantee a lot of pissed off almost-Senators will be calling Obama to let him know his FBI stooge hosed them good.
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Nov 2, 2016 20:39
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I have a confession. I took a lot of extra "I voted today!" stickers when I voted on Sunday. I committed sticker-based voter fraud. RIGGED! SAD!
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Nov 2, 2016 20:39
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Nonsense posted:Donald Trump has literally no idea that a new accuser is about to surface And it hasn't been hurting his polls at all.
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Nov 2, 2016 20:39
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wilderthanmild posted:I have a confession. I took a lot of extra "I voted today!" stickers when I voted on Sunday. Rage against the machine
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Nov 2, 2016 20:40
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Yo. Non Serviam. A And I'm posting this poo poo.  
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Nov 2, 2016 20:41
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yeah the senate is a lost cause due to Comey imo. So get ready for another 4 years like the last 8, with Democrats compromising in order to desperately stave off the machinery of the country grinding to a halt (when's the next debt ceiling fight, again?). The lesson of "stop voting Republican if you want your country to work properly" isn't one the American public has picked up on i guess
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Nov 2, 2016 20:41
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Nonsense posted:The lean states all collapsed promptly yesterday anyhow. The Senate races might still be salvageable, but you can guarantee a lot of pissed off almost-Senators will be calling Obama to let him know his FBI stooge hosed them good. The Senate is fine. PA, NH, and NV are going to be fine. FL is now somehow in reach. NC might also be fine too, Burr's a loving moron, and the Governor's race is holding him down too. a shameful boehner posted:yeah the senate is a lost cause due to Comey imo. Why do you guys keep falling for this poo poo. The same CNN poll showed the Senate being perfectly fine for Dems. Q-Poll did too. Both of those have R-House Leans to them.
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Nov 2, 2016 20:41
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I've taken graduate courses in statistics too, does that mean I'm allowed to debate about 538? Actually, I don't have any real problems with Nate's model because while it definitely has its quirks, they have justification. I prefer others because I dislike some of the assumptions and I think the jumpiness is proving the point. But, dude, come on: https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/793869273076760576 **plausible** Off a one-day swing in a poll. Who isn't rolling their eyes at this poo poo, at this point? I really don't get this guy at all. He's not an idiot, but he's sure good at playing one.
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Nov 2, 2016 20:41
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Crows Turn Off posted:Trump's sexual assault history is vast, detailed, ever-expanding, with lots of witnesses and victims, and has been in the news pretty consistently for a month. Yes it has, the bus video was a big hit in his polling. It's just that the decision voters are making isn't "Trump or Clinton?" it's "Trump or No One?" or "Clinton or No One?" and people who are likely voters are likely to, well, vote.
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Nov 2, 2016 20:41
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Crain posted:Yo. Non Serviam. isn't posting people irl phone numbers a dox? lol
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Nov 2, 2016 20:42
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Eugene V. Dabs posted:Once the Great White Hope loses and they are utterly humiliated, they'll slink back under a rock for a few cycles and be even less relevant when they do resurface. Nah, they'll be the Teabaggers of '18
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Nov 2, 2016 20:42
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TheGreatGnocchi posted:How the hell did Ohio vote for a black president twice, but is polling so high for Trump? You can't simply say white people. Is Cuyahoga County LV's really that much lower this election? Higher misogyny than racism? Ohio is very white. Trump's White Grievance platform is finding fertile soil.
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Nov 2, 2016 20:43
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Crain posted:Yo. Non Serviam. Hahaha I'm sorry you felt attacked. This guy's a valuable member of the community but don't let a black poster use an exclamation point by god
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Nov 2, 2016 20:43
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https://twitter.com/chrislhayes/status/793896636506316800 Sleep well friends of Trump, surely nothing too disturbing is swirling in your head right about now!
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Nov 2, 2016 20:43
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Tiny Brontosaurus posted:I already early-voted in California and this part of the ballot took the most research by far. The judges all had identical personal statements about how they believed in fairness, which is nice and all but I really want to know about things like how they feel about minimum sentencing, punitive vs. rehabilitative justice, trying minors as adults, and how cozy they are with the cops and the DAs. I don't know that I made perfect choices. The most useful info I found was their list of endorsements - Policeman's Union = No Thanks, for instance. I work law-adjacent in Los Angeles and have dealt with, on both sides, the DOJ (for the most part, good!) and the local LA DA's office (often terrible!) so I don't know if this applies to you at all but basically for the judicial stuff, the process my colleagues and I use if we don't know the candidates is: Vote for whichever one isn't a prosecutor If they're both prosecutors, vote for the female or non-white male (the judiciary and justice system would DRAMATICALLY benefit from more women and people of color) If they're both white male prosecutors, vote for the one whose department sounds the least bad (a "child sexual crimes" prosecutor is probably a better choice than the "VIOLENT GANG PROSECUTOR") If by some insane miracle neither person running is a prosecutor, look into their law firms and see what kind of law they do and vote based on that (this almost never happens)
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Nov 2, 2016 20:43
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spacetoaster posted:isn't posting people irl phone numbers a dox? lol I know you're pants on loving head retarded, but 555 is fake.
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Nov 2, 2016 20:43
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BRAKE FOR MOOSE posted:I've taken graduate courses in statistics too, does that mean I'm allowed to debate about 538? Actually, I don't have any real problems with Nate's model because while it definitely has its quirks, they have justification. I prefer others because I dislike some of the assumptions and I think the jumpiness is proving the point. I think what he was trying to say is that it might have made a dent in "snap-polling" [lack of a better term here] but that it faded quickly once more details came out and we reset to something like 4-6% margin.
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Nov 2, 2016 20:43
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spacetoaster posted:isn't posting people irl phone numbers a dox? lol Considering the 555, I don't think it's a real number.
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Nov 2, 2016 20:43
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Bhaal posted:I was wondering, what methods do people here use to go through the local election parts of their ballot? This year is different than normal, I'm voting straight D and will only do research on strictly non-partisan races that don't list party. Normally I vote Democrat for all federal races, governor, and state legislative races. After that, I'll give points for being a Democrat and for being a competent incumbent and then I read about them, what they plan to do with the office they are running for. I normally find one or two Republicans to vote for, but this year I won't bother. For stuff like school board and hospital board its tougher, I'm mainly looking to see who is the crazy gadfly who doesn't know what they are doing and not vote for them. Initiatives, you just have to read up on it from multiple trusted sources and figure out what you'd like the state to do. Judges are difficult. In my state, we have retention elections, the governor appoints them and every so often we're asked if they can keep their job. If I do not know and can't find anything, then by default I vote to retain. There's usually some lawyer group or state bar association that puts together info on the judges up for retention, and I just basically assume they know what they are doing and accept that information as gospol. I'll sometimmes find a judge or two that the state bar is unhappy with and vote to boot them out of their courtrooms. Its probably a wasted effort though, because judges are never kicked out, except for that one time when the religious right flipped out and got 3 Iowa Supreme Court justices booted for the gay marriage ruling. A couple years later when the next set of justices were up for retention, the Iowa voters were able to see that the gay apocalypse wasn't upon us and retained them. Northjayhawk fucked around with this message at 20:46 on Nov 2, 2016 |
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Nov 2, 2016 20:43
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Maybe this is just my feeling or whatever, but I think Hillary's massive GOTV strategy (and by extension Trump's non-strategy) is what's going to help her secure the senate and help her maybe even surprise a few people by not only winning North Carolina but also Ohio and mayyyybe even Arizona.
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Nov 2, 2016 20:44
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Aerox posted:I work law-adjacent in Los Angeles and have dealt with, on both sides, the DOJ (for the most part, good!) and the local LA DA's office (often terrible!) so I don't know if this applies to you at all but basically for the judicial stuff, the process my colleagues and I use if we don't know the candidates is: Yeah! That's pretty much what I did, thanks for affirming my instincts there.
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Nov 2, 2016 20:44
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Tiny Brontosaurus posted:It is in fact that, guy who is also on my ignore list. Metonymy is dehumanizing. am I on your ignore list 
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Nov 2, 2016 20:45
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Munkeymon posted:Nah, they'll be the Teabaggers of '18 Maybe, but there won't be anything like "Black Man in the White House" to keep them energized for 6+ years.
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Nov 2, 2016 20:45
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A Fancy 400 lbs posted:Considering the 555, I don't think it's a real number. So he was trying out a sick burn over pm? lol
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Nov 2, 2016 20:45
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spacetoaster posted:isn't posting people irl phone numbers a dox? lol In the off chance he was dumb enough to send a real fax number to a random person on the internet: I'll remove it if a mod/admin tells me to. edit: 555 is fake anyway so gently caress him
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Nov 2, 2016 20:45
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Welcome to the darkness. https://twitter.com/chrislhayes/status/793900935135264768
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Nov 2, 2016 20:45
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Mel Mudkiper posted:am I on your ignore list Perish the thought 
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Nov 2, 2016 20:46
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Crain posted:Yo. Non Serviam. I loving love this forum sometimes
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Nov 2, 2016 20:46
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PT6A posted:
If you are a white male and have empathy you should definitely feel guilty about the advantages you own but don't deserve. It shouldn't be a crippling malaise that runs your life but if you don't feel even a little ashamed of your unearned privilege then it's hard to see how your worldview isn't warped.
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Nov 2, 2016 20:47
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Xarthor posted:Maybe this is just my feeling or whatever, but I think Hillary's massive GOTV strategy (and by extension Trump's non-strategy) is what's going to help her secure the senate and help her maybe even surprise a few people by not only winning North Carolina but also Ohio and mayyyybe even Arizona. No, I'm all about this and I think it's going to be the "surprise" story of election night analysis.
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Nov 2, 2016 20:48
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