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bawfuls posted:c'mon it's supposed to be you vets of this thread laughing at these polls and reassuring us newbies that we should BUY BUY BUY everything at a discount this week! I'm not sweating national EV results. I stand to lose a lot in Florida and North Carolina at this point, however. (Also, national polls don't matter nearly as much as state polls, and the latter have been much dicier as of late.)
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Nov 1, 2016 23:57
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Ah yeah that makes more sense. I am lightly in on FL and that doesn't feel safe at all right now. edit: I did bail out of the 370.REPPREZ16 NO at a push to free up cash for other things, but right now there is nothing priced as good as PenceNO ~64 that I have as much confidence in. Even NV, which feels like the biggest lock of the so-called swing states is like 67 now. bawfuls has issued a correction as of 00:13 on Nov 2, 2016 |
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Nov 2, 2016 00:01
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Vox Nihili posted:I'm not sweating national EV results. I stand to lose a lot in Florida and North Carolina at this point, however. Yup, same. Half thinking of dumping at a loss right now, and trying to buy back when returns come in to just make up for the initial losses.
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Nov 2, 2016 00:17
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huge pile of hamburger posted:Yup, same. Half thinking of dumping at a loss right now, and trying to buy back when returns come in to just make up for the initial losses. We should know where things really stand by Sunday night/Monday morning, when we'll have most of the early voting information.
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Nov 2, 2016 00:26
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I'm really glad I just went whole hog on Hillary winning (Female Pres, Kaine VP YES, etc) rather than state level poo poo. Hillary winning is the only consistent thing about this election that doesn't have me constantly freaking out about.
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Nov 2, 2016 00:32
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i'm pretty much in most of the hillary wins markets, woman, prez party, vp, and then i have most of the rest in florida, with a bit in long-shot poo poo like texas and indiana. i got them in tiers in my spreadsheet: safe, safe?, lol no. just safe makes me get a tiny bit of profit (really just hedge losses), florida (safe + safe?) gets me nice profits, and "lol no" (texas 370+ indiana) gets me like thousands of dollars of profits. this is fun! woooo!
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Nov 2, 2016 00:41
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Fidel Castronaut posted:i'm pretty much in most of the hillary wins markets, woman, prez party, vp, and then i have most of the rest in florida, with a bit in long-shot poo poo like texas and indiana. i got them in tiers in my spreadsheet: safe, safe?, lol no. just safe makes me get a tiny bit of profit (really just hedge losses), florida (safe + safe?) gets me nice profits, and "lol no" (texas 370+ indiana) gets me like thousands of dollars of profits. this is fun! woooo! Pretty much same, but my reach states are Arizona (still a 50/50 state IMO, especially given that latino turnout is STRONG this year) and Georgia (not feeling so good about Georgia, but it was cheap).
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Nov 2, 2016 00:48
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yeah, arizona is probably a better reach state. regrets!
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Nov 2, 2016 01:29
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I pulled out of Florida and as a result I guess I will just lose some of my profit from safe presidential ones.
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Nov 2, 2016 01:30
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e: ignore me i am dumb
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Nov 2, 2016 01:46
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man my no investment in republican pres 370+ evs just feels better and better every day, gently caress state level markets
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Nov 2, 2016 02:04
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Yeah I moved my State bets to Pence No. Pence No is now .63
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Nov 2, 2016 02:30
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michigan hit 64 cents. i am a broken man.
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Nov 2, 2016 02:44
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lmao "wisdom of the crowds"
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Nov 2, 2016 02:47
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“No one in this world, so far as I know—and I have researched the records for years, and employed agents to help me—has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people.” —H. L. Mencken But beware: “Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent.” —John Maynard Keynes
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Nov 2, 2016 02:53
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Platystemon posted:“Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent.” Fortunately for us all markets in this scenario have a predetermined expiration date 
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Nov 2, 2016 03:02
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Necc0 posted:Fortunately for us all markets in this scenario have a predetermined expiration date Yeah, like if people are really shook, just log out and come back on November 9th. This is one of the things that makes this kind of market great; whereas an undiscovered gem in the stock market (or vastly overpriced turd) can stay that way for years, whether you're right or wrong here will with 99% certainty be decided in roughly seven days. I'll probably still be dumping cash into state races for the next 2-3 days if they stay like this.
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Nov 2, 2016 03:19
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Of course like an hour after I bail on FL with a small loss to get in on the pence no action a C+8 poll comes out
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Nov 2, 2016 03:27
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nachos posted:Of course like an hour after I bail on FL with a small loss to get in on the pence no action a C+8 poll comes out It's an outlier. Florida is going to be close LinYutang has issued a correction as of 04:05 on Nov 2, 2016 |
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Nov 2, 2016 03:55
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LinYutang posted:It's an outlier. Florida is going to be close The pumping is coming from inside the thread!
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Nov 2, 2016 04:15
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LinYutang posted:It's an outlier. Florida is going to be close I think Hillary is more likely than not to win Florida and should establish a substantial early voting lead this weekend. That's really all I've got at the moment, though--it certainly will be close.
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Nov 2, 2016 05:50
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http://www.mediaite.com/tv/gary-johnsons-vp-on-msnbc-im-here-vouching-for-mrs-clinton-high-time-someone-did/ https://www.predictit.org/Contract/3911/Will-Bill-Weld-endorse-Hillary-Clinton-before-Election-Day Any idea how this will resolve? (Probably no, but "vouch" standing in for "endorse" is getting very close.)
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Nov 2, 2016 08:39
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Vox Nihili posted:http://www.mediaite.com/tv/gary-johnsons-vp-on-msnbc-im-here-vouching-for-mrs-clinton-high-time-someone-did/ Rules (my bold): quote:... an affirmative use of some form of the word "endorse" and/or convey a decision made by Mr. Weld's to vote for or otherwise support Clinton's candidacy for president ... That seems to be the relevant phrase, but I can't imagine PI intended that to catch candidates saying anything nice about each other (as remote a possibility as that seems). I'm snapping up cheap noes, in case you disagree.
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Nov 2, 2016 08:49
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quote:On or before November 7, 2016, former Massachusetts governor Bill Weld shall publicly declare his endorsement of Hillary Clinton's candidacy for president in the 2016 general election. A qualifying announcement may be made verbally or in writing by Mr. Weld or an authorized representative thereof, and may either include an affirmative use of some form of the word "endorse" and/or convey a decision made by Mr. Weld's to vote for or otherwise support Clinton's candidacy for president. Once it is determined that a qualifying announcement has been made, any subsequent withdrawal thereof shall have no effect on the resolution of this market. Mr. Weld need not withdraw from the Libertarian ticket, nor suspend his own candidacy for vice president for this market to resolve as Yes. Emphasis mine. My opinion is that he did indeed “otherwise support Clinton's candidacy for president”. That phrase shouldn’t be in the rules if statements like that don’t count, especially considering the presence of the “no takesies‐backsies” and “no need to withdraw” clauses. If “I vouch for her” doesn’t count, what would? That is, aside from the forms of the word “endorse”, which are explicitly sufficient but not necessary. I wouldn’t buy it at 99¢, but I think it should be trading higher than 40¢. Platystemon has issued a correction as of 08:53 on Nov 2, 2016 |
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Nov 2, 2016 08:50
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I just love when we end up betting on PI's interpretations of their rules, instead of actual events.
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Nov 2, 2016 08:56
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Platystemon posted:Emphasis mine. He's "otherwise supported Clinton's candidacy" several times now. If you want in I would put in an order at 25c or so, lots of people are still convinced it can't/won't happen. I won't be touching it myself, in part because all of my funds are tied up in huge, underwater Clinton bets and also because the likely result appears truly ambiguous to me.
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Nov 2, 2016 09:38
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John McCain had to defend Obama against being called an Arab, even clarifying that he was a "a decent person and a person you don’t have to be scared of as president of the United States," and I wouldn't consider that to meet the threshold of being an endorsement. The Bill Weld quote is the same thing, vouching that Clinton is not a personification of evil. That market will not resolve to 'YES' unless he flat-out says he is going to vote for Clinton, or that others should vote for her. I just bought up a bunch of 'NO' shares for .75, and I expect the market to settle back down in the next 24 hours letting me make some quick profit. Edit: Or, since its such a low-volume market, I'll likely have to hold on to the shares until Nov. 8th, but its still a better value than most state markets at the moment. Discospawn has issued a correction as of 12:16 on Nov 2, 2016 |
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Nov 2, 2016 10:12
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i might need to deposit more, how is PENCE.USVP16 still so high 
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Nov 2, 2016 13:48
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Series DD Funding posted:i might need to deposit more, how is PENCE.USVP16 still so high lmfao I'm glad I waited. Yeah I think I'm gonna take a second plunge as well. Christ
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Nov 2, 2016 13:53
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I took it as Weld vouching for her as a person, not a candidate. Happy to ride the NO flip and get out this morning just to be safe, though. How do we feel about the Comey resignation market? I know these "will X do Y in 2016" ones rarely pan out, but I feel like he's definitely toast post-Election Day. He's taking hits from all sides.
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Nov 2, 2016 13:56
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Just maxxed the VP market. To be honest I feel like it'll probably push even lower but I felt now's a good time to buy anyways. .64 is straight-up theft
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Nov 2, 2016 13:58
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https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/793682522991308800 My understanding is that a 60k firewall is basically game over and the next 3 days should be strong days for dems. NV still priced around .69 right now for dem yes/rep no
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Nov 2, 2016 14:08
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Raivin posted:How do we feel about the Comey resignation market? I know these "will X do Y in 2016" ones rarely pan out, but I feel like he's definitely toast post-Election Day. He's taking hits from all sides. It's an incredibly low-volume market right now, so it's probably not worth worrying about until after November 8th when people start looking for non-election markets to put money into. Personally, I don't know how relevant he'll be after the election unless Trump somehow wins (in which case, his resignation is the least of anybody's concerns). Edit: Here's the response for the Bill Weld market from earlier: 
Discospawn has issued a correction as of 17:15 on Nov 2, 2016 |
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Nov 2, 2016 15:04
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Nevada is now down to .62 because of that new CNN poll
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Nov 2, 2016 17:33
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I've yet to see GOP.NV.USPREZ16 NO priced lower than PENCE.USVP16 NO
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Nov 2, 2016 17:45
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Looks like the tide finally broke in the VP market and is slowly retreating.
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Nov 2, 2016 22:07
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Necc0 posted:Looks like the tide finally broke in the VP market and is slowly retreating. In it to win it with another $200 @ .66 per share. $300 total into Hilldawg beating Trump now. Wish I had more to play with but since technically I could lose it all I'm playing with cash I won't cry over. 
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Nov 3, 2016 00:10
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I think given the ridiculousness of this election season, its gonna be a tie. We need a market for that.
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Nov 3, 2016 00:40
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Trump has been spending way too much time in NH exactly because he desperately hopes for this map but it ain't gonna happen.
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Nov 3, 2016 01:05
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Baddog posted:I think given the ridiculousness of this election season, its gonna be a tie. We need a market for that. There is a market for that. Buy NO on both sides.
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Nov 3, 2016 02:58
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