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https://twitter.com/alivitali/status/793973340096430080 troublesome.
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Nov 3, 2016 02:00
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GI_Clutch posted:Saw this trending on Facebook today. Apparently, if you are Catholic and want the best chance to get away with child molestation, move to Louisiana. A judge decided that priests are not mandatory reporters because confession is supposed to be kept confidential. I''m honestly surprised those laws haven't been struck down on 1A grounds. I could easily see a majority doing so, even if some of the justices go with a "it's horrible poo poo but religion freedoms exist" or something like that. If it wouldn't be an 8-0 ruling I'd actually be pretty surprised. It'd be like requiring doctors or lawyers to break client privilege.
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Nov 3, 2016 02:00
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Taran posted:It has to be nationwide, I've been seeing ads like that in Boston. It's still probably worth it for campaigns since live sports have viewers that are unique to all other TV.
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Nov 3, 2016 02:00
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Cingulate posted:In principle yes, though in the long run, you want somebody who is calibrated well. At the moment he is predicting a higher probability of winning the senate than the elections, (at least) one of those two seems not to be calibrated well.
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Nov 3, 2016 02:00
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Oh, christ. He really is crazy
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Nov 3, 2016 02:03
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Munkeymon posted:Why does this look painted? ...whitewashed 
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Nov 3, 2016 02:03
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Evil Fluffy posted:I''m honestly surprised those laws haven't been struck down on 1A grounds. I could easily see a majority doing so, even if some of the justices go with a "it's horrible poo poo but religion freedoms exist" or something like that. If it wouldn't be an 8-0 ruling I'd actually be pretty surprised. It'd be like requiring doctors or lawyers to break client privilege. Doctors and lawyers are both subject to mandatory reporter laws, fyi (It gets tricky with client privilege, and can be a minefield to navigate, but they definitely are subject to them).
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Nov 3, 2016 02:04
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He projects so hard and so often that I'm pretty sure he has a fake birth certificate and was born in Kenya.
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Nov 3, 2016 02:04
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Saw a Trump add in Virginia on I think ESPN? Really desperate "TRUMP SAVE ECONOMY, MAKE COUNTRY STRONG" again without saying how while Hilldawg exists in some monochrome filter where she is bad because she is bad. Also see local government races fighting over obamacare. It never stops being funny watching olds bitch about this while the system as so far probably been less costly than what they have been paying before it was set up, but you know memories just get fuzzy when your president is black. Now I don't care about sports, so maybe I just didn't see the adds we could have been getting for months, but its loving hilarious that I only see trump signs and bumper-stickers now, like loving a week away from the election and after Trump's loving abandoned this state.
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Nov 3, 2016 02:05
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Munkeymon posted:Why does this look painted? I agree. Maybe it's got something to do with like this.. https://www.quora.com/What-do-atheists-say-about-golden-ratio-I-have-seen-God-being-justified-by-golden-ratio
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Nov 3, 2016 02:05
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Northjayhawk posted:Oh, christ. He really is crazy as long as he doesn't start having conversations with "Other Donny" I think we'll be fine.
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Nov 3, 2016 02:06
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chumbler posted:You should still feel bad for voting for either of those clowns. Nobody's perfect. I was thinking either Alyson Kennedy or Gloria Estela La Riva. Also thinking of writing in Rabbi Michael Lerner just because he's an advocate for basic income. Could also write in you know who 
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Nov 3, 2016 02:06
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I'm going to have legit stress runs until the race is called Tuesday night. The prospect of raising my newborn daughter in Trump's America is goddamned terrifying.
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Nov 3, 2016 02:09
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Samuel Clemens posted:Sure, but with elections only happening every four years and so many factors changing in the interim, identifying the best model is no easy feat. Maybe Nate's assumptions are the most accurate ones. Or maybe Wang is right and presidential elections are actually very stable because they mostly come down to fundamentals. computer parts posted:By your own admission, you don't know that it is calibrated well. 
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Nov 3, 2016 02:10
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If there are any remaining oppo bombs expect them to drop tomorrow. Today is too early because of the World Series dominating attention. Friday is too late to capture the weekday news cycle before the election weekend. Should be fun/terrifying.
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Nov 3, 2016 02:10
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So much discipline!
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Nov 3, 2016 02:11
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uncertainty posted:At the moment he is predicting a higher probability of winning the senate than the elections, (at least) one of those two seems not to be calibrated well.
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Nov 3, 2016 02:11
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For the record, and once again. PEC and Drew Linzer (now at KOS) have better track records than Nate over the last few presidential elections. They predicted the past elections with more certainty and earlier. The "errors are correlated" bit is a red herring and not the main reason the estimates differ. The main reason they differ are the adjustments made to polls by Nate. And we can't know how exactly he adjusts them because that is proprietary. Take a look at Florida. PEC and daily kos have Clinton as the favorite in Florida. Pollster's poll average shows Clinton ahead. But Nate give's Trump a 50.6%. The reason for that is because a trend line adjustment (essentially a measure of momentum) and a house adjustment gives Trump a slight edge on vote projection. Based on past elections, trend adjustments and house adjustments do not increase predictive power. They do increase volatility in predictions.
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Nov 3, 2016 02:13
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There are no more oppo bombs. And even if there were, people are now completely desensitized and polarized to the point where there is almost nothing that would have a significant impact on Trump's final vote count. He's still going to lose, though.
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Nov 3, 2016 02:15
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Cingulate posted:I'm not sure I understand exactly what you mean, but calibration in this case doesn't mean "conforms to common sense", but "is right as often as it claims to be right". A model is well calibrated if 60%, not more and not less, of the predictions to which it assigns a 60% chance come true. Brier scores for past elections indicate that PEC and Drew Linzer (now at daily kos) have been more accurate, earlier, than Nate.
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Nov 3, 2016 02:16
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Everything I accuse my opponents of...
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Nov 3, 2016 02:16
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Northjayhawk posted:Oh, christ. He really is crazy Are, uh, are you only just now noticing?
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Nov 3, 2016 02:19
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joepinetree posted:For the record, and once again. PEC and Drew Linzer (now at KOS) have better track records than Nate over the last few presidential elections. They predicted the past elections with more certainty and earlier. The "errors are correlated" bit is a red herring and not the main reason the estimates differ. The main reason they differ are the adjustments made to polls by Nate. And we can't know how exactly he adjusts them because that is proprietary. Take a look at Florida. PEC and daily kos have Clinton as the favorite in Florida. Pollster's poll average shows Clinton ahead. But Nate give's Trump a 50.6%. The reason for that is because a trend line adjustment (essentially a measure of momentum) and a house adjustment gives Trump a slight edge on vote projection. Based on past elections, trend adjustments and house adjustments do not increase predictive power. They do increase volatility in predictions. And last I checked, undecideds were high.
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Nov 3, 2016 02:19
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Donald Trump has had a legitimate mental breakdown.
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Nov 3, 2016 02:20
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joepinetree posted:Brier scores for past elections indicate that PEC and Drew Linzer (now at daily kos) have been more accurate, earlier, than Nate. I understand that, and I drat well hope they are in fact correct. 
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Nov 3, 2016 02:20
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Iodised QQ posted:I got the same one on Long Island, so I think it's safe to say it's a national buy Taran posted:It has to be nationwide, I've been seeing ads like that in Boston. ponzicar posted:I'd like to think that since he's stiffing his internal pollsters, they've started to feed him hilariously wrong poll results. Here's a dilemma. There's I think five judges at various levels up for continuation on my ballot. Three were put there by a Republican governor last decade, so obviously I'm voting them out. The others were appointed by O'Malley, so probably lean further left, but after Freddie Gray I feel like this state's entire court system needs an overhaul, so I kinda want to vote them out as well. Only problem is, because O'Malley thought he had a shot at President, we have a Republican governor now as well. While he's Anti-Trump, he's still an rear end in a top hat who's much, much more focused on the richer, whiter parts of the state, and I don't trust him to appoint anyone decent. Should I stick with the status quo and hope we have a Dem governor next time the terms are up? Or put my trust in a mostly centrist, but still pretty evil, Republican?
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Nov 3, 2016 02:20
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Uh, is there footage of this or something? It sounds like a parody.
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Nov 3, 2016 02:20
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Bip Roberts posted:It's still probably worth it for campaigns since live sports have viewers that are unique to all other TV. Seeing the ads in Washington State too. Oddly very few ads for state wide races in the past weeks. I guess because nothing huge is on the state ballot. Although we have had Trump supporters waving signs from freeway overpasses to slow my commute. 
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Nov 3, 2016 02:21
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UV_Catastrophe posted:Thanks to this thread, I am now better able to imagine, in great detail, my own death by nuclear fire via a Trump presidency. Does the opposite for me. It'd have to be something on the level of multiple MIRV strikes on Offat to kill me faster than the I-131 from the fallout plume eating my thyroid would afterwards! 
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Nov 3, 2016 02:21
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Nov 3, 2016 02:21
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So, do you think the team of Special Agents who have to visit people who threaten the President/candidates are gonna get a super big Christmas bonus this year?
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Nov 3, 2016 02:21
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cult member at airport posted:https://twitter.com/alexis_levinson/status/793975890065653760 How have we gotten to the point where a former Grand Wizard of the KKK can claim to be non-racist and be believed by anyone? Steve King and his ilk are horrible enough, and the Trumpstaffel are worse, but when white America becomes so blind that he could ever be seriously considered, then it's time to just burn the country down and start over. This is the ranting of a broken man.
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Nov 3, 2016 02:22
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let the corncobbing begin
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Nov 3, 2016 02:24
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I need to see this video so badly. We're so close to a full Prester Jane moment of an exhausted Trump making his final gently caress ups.
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Nov 3, 2016 02:25
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https://twitter.com/apblake/status/793972795634020352 duke meltdown from earlier in the night. https://twitter.com/KatzOnEarth/status/793975049405534208 who would have thought. https://twitter.com/dcbigjohn/status/793987209892282373
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Nov 3, 2016 02:25
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Cingulate posted:In principle yes, but 538 reports pollster adjustments make a rather small difference, but reducing the bigger differences (correlated errors, undecided voters) is a much larger difference. No, it is not a much larger difference. There is a reason why 538 was pretty much in line with everyone else when the race was stable. On October 17th, when polls were stable, Nate was at 88% hillary while PEC and Daily kos were in the mid to high 90s. That is not a big difference. The difference now in estimate is over 20%. Nate's trend adjustment alone is responsible for a 1.8% bump on Trump's expected vote total in Florida. Again, it is demonstrably not about correlated errors or undecided voters. If you take away Nate's trendline adjustment Hillary would go back to being over 70% likely to win Florida by his own model.
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Nov 3, 2016 02:27
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HorseRenoir posted:let the corncobbing begin Begin?
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Nov 3, 2016 02:28
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Oh hey cool they're still trying to prevent college students from voting in loving North Carolina. loving amazing how they're trying to poo poo up the actually good universities they've got set up as a honeypot so suckers go there for an education and end up staying in the state.
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Nov 3, 2016 02:28
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Northjayhawk posted:I think the standard response is that if we build the wall and deport all the brown people, then the greedy farmers will be forced to pay enough so that white middle-class workers will be willing to pick tomatoes in the sun all day. As far as the impact on food prices, gently caress poors. Ogmius815 posted:Did you know that there's a huge labor shortage in agriculture that's been ongoing for years and years? I am one of those guys who unflinchingly is okay with $7 heads of lettuce or whatever "if the illegal immigrants disappeared..." fantasy people spin wherein agriculture paid the kind of wages people expect of labor, mostly because your $7 head of lettuce is bullshit and not actually going to happen. However, I also don't think that labor force is exclusively "white middle class workers." I think immigrants also deserve a shot at those jobs and wages. (Edit: Honestly, if you care about the decline of unions and the loss of labor, allowing a permanent underclass of laborers working illegal wages because "poor people need to buy the things they're making" then you're not solving the problem. You don't help "the poor" by having a class of people poorer than them and sweeping them under the rug.) Also somehow I got misinterpreted as no immigration from anywhere ever when I actually think immigration reform is part of the key to raising the wages and condition of these jobs. Craptacular! fucked around with this message at 02:33 on Nov 3, 2016 |
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Nov 3, 2016 02:28
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Freakazoid_ posted:Nobody's perfect. I was thinking either Alyson Kennedy or Gloria Estela La Riva. Gloria La Riva believes Hugo Chavez did no wrong because anti-imperialists can do no wrong by definition.
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Nov 3, 2016 02:29
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