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cant cook creole bream posted:Wait what? Who the hell is voting for Stein at this point? Wasn't she mostly below 2 percent? I'm guessing her polled 4% is well within the MoE
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Nov 3, 2016 12:27
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So Hillary's probably going to win but there's definitely no oppo bomb? Is that right? What happened there? I was sure there was going to be a racial slur on tape or something from the Hillary camp, or failing that some fruit borne of all those people with archives of Trump on the Apprentice or Howard Stern or whatever, who were feverishly looking through them in hopes of paydirt after the Alicia Machado thing and PussyGate. This isn't  so much as it's just, I don't know - disappointed I guess, if you can be "disappointed" one of the candidates for President wasn't caught on tape with his finger in a twelve year-old or whatever.
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Nov 3, 2016 12:29
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cant cook creole bream posted:Wait what? Who the hell is voting for Stein at this point? Wasn't she mostly below 2 percent? its a loving tracking poll
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Nov 3, 2016 12:31
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Kilroy posted:What happened there?
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Nov 3, 2016 12:31
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Kilroy posted:So Hillary's probably going to win but there's definitely no oppo bomb? Is that right? If I had to guess after the Alicia Manchado thing, the press dropped the stories they were saving up. His ties to Russia, Pussygate, everything else he's done to women.
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Nov 3, 2016 12:31
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FDR was a drat good president. What set him apart from other presidents? That's right, Polio. Which candidate is your best shot at making Polio great again? Jill Stein. Vote Stein/Baraka on November 8th, unless you don't want there to ever be another FDR in which case gently caress you.
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Nov 3, 2016 12:32
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Kilroy posted:So Hillary's probably going to win but there's definitely no oppo bomb? Is that right? Now that you mention it... yeah the gently caress? I want my oppo bomb. Maybe Hillary was too busy watching the CUBS WIN IT ALL to give the nod.
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Nov 3, 2016 12:32
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Whomever wins, the yellow/orange bigot or the shrill email sysop, everyone else loses. Goondolences everyone who lives in America. I guess for everyone else in the world too as we all live under the shadow of the American Empire so however far you lot go down the rabbit hole I guess we're all going for the ride with you. 
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Nov 3, 2016 12:33
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CBS/NYT poll was +4 in September, +9 in early october, +3 now. I guess the +9 was the outlier, and +3/+4 is where it's at. I would prefer it higher but compared to the scares at the start of the week, I can live with that. IBD is still a dead tie and LAT/USC is down +5T from +6T yesterday. Edit: https://twitter.com/NoahCRothman/status/794138487796727808 UUUHHHHH....
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Nov 3, 2016 12:34
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DancingShade posted:Whomever wins, the yellow bigot or the shrill email sysop, everyone else loses.
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Nov 3, 2016 12:34
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djw175 posted:If I had to guess after the Alicia Manchado thing, the press dropped the stories they were saving up. Campaigns save up stories, or at least that's the fiction we've been telling ourselves for this entire election. FactsAreUseless posted:Turns out Trump isn't an angel, but he's just an ordinary American, and even Corrupt Hillary couldn't fake something fast enough. Everyone has flaws, and if you've never engaged in some locker room talk then you're so out-of-touch and PC that it's no wonder you're surprised.
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Nov 3, 2016 12:34
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I mean what oppo could sink him any more at this point? If he's on camera saying a racial slur moderate Republicans would close their eyes and think of Reagan while his base would think he's telling it like it is. Unless the reports of early Republicans in Florida voting for Hillary are actually correct, the story of this election is that the GOP while can't win a national election with their current demographics, has 40% of the voting population that will go for their candidates regardless of how obviously and dangerously unqualified they are.
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Nov 3, 2016 12:38
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canepazzo posted:CBS/NYT poll was +4 in September, +9 in early october, +3 now. I guess the +9 was the outlier, and +3/+4 is where it's at. That isn't how outliers work.
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Nov 3, 2016 12:37
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cant cook creole bream posted:Wait what? Who the hell is voting for Stein at this point? Wasn't she mostly below 2 percent? Disaffected Bernie-voting white millennials I assume
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Nov 3, 2016 12:38
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Kilroy posted:What do you mean by this? The press doesn't "save up" stories they breathlessly run with things before there even is a story. That's what I mean. Clinton campaign originally found out that he said and did all these things and then held onto them until October/November. In the meantime, the press found out and immediately posted it, leaving the Clinton campaign without an oppo bomb.
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Nov 3, 2016 12:40
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canepazzo posted:Meanwhile, a FBI source (does anyone NOT have one at this point?) sent me this: It's likely that there was some unreported serious infighting between the DOJ and FBI, with pressure from both Congress and the President. This is why the news about all of this has been so loving incoherent.
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Nov 3, 2016 12:41
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Kilroy posted:I can't believe the Hillary campaign was naive enough to think that Donald Trump on tape admitting to sexual assault was enough to sink his campaign. My god this has been a bad year for painful realizations of how far we have to come on so many things.
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Nov 3, 2016 12:42
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Stein's numbers are probably going down still, not up, and that poll just has them at 4% because it's a tracking poll that happened to get some hardcore Stein supporters who haven't abandoned her the way most third party supporters will or something.
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Nov 3, 2016 12:42
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freckle posted:FDR was a drat good president. Roosevelt founded the fuckin' March of Dimes.
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Nov 3, 2016 12:43
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I really don't know what I'm going to do with my time when there's no more articles about the two different types of white people and whether one of them is racist or not
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Nov 3, 2016 12:44
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WeAreTheRomans posted:I honestly don't remember this many fragile little bitches in 2012, which shaped up to be a much closer election than what we got here Romney would just have been a bad president, not an existential threat to the Republic like Trunp.
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Nov 3, 2016 12:43
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AKA Pseudonym posted:I really don't know what I'm going to do with my time when there's no more articles about the two different types of white people and whether one of them is racist or not
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Nov 3, 2016 12:46
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djw175 posted:That's what I mean. Clinton campaign originally found out that he said and did all these things and then held onto them until October/November. In the meantime, the press found out and immediately posted it, leaving the Clinton campaign without an oppo bomb. So, going forward, we should not anticipate "October Surprises" coming from actual Presidential campaigns, right? Historically I don't think that's how it's happened, either - so why was everyone so sure Hillary was going to drop some mad oppo in late October, and where are these posters now so I can call them names? Dead Cosmonaut posted:It's likely that there was some unreported serious infighting between the DOJ and FBI, with pressure from both Congress and the President. This is why the news about all of this has been so loving incoherent.
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Nov 3, 2016 12:46
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AKA Pseudonym posted:I really don't know what I'm going to do with my time when there's no more articles about the two different types of white people and whether one of them is racist or not
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Nov 3, 2016 12:47
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Hillary and her people probably threw out tons of oppo bombs, the problem being that a mixture of people loving them some Hitler, Trump barreling from idiocy to idiocy so quickly that nothing could catch up, and possibly people's religious fear of  got in the way. (And in anticipation: People might not have been as conditioned to hate Bernie, but Bernie would also have tried to take the high road and debate the campaign on the issues, which, well.)
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Nov 3, 2016 12:49
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Kilroy posted:So Hillary's probably going to win but there's definitely no oppo bomb? Is that right? They probably ran it past a focus group and realised it was a net positive in contested demographics. There was a bit of a wobble, but his supporters have come to terms with the fact that they are voting for a corrupt incompetent Putin stooge who boasts about sexual assault. From that baseline, any lesser story is a change in an upwards direction. Short of proof of child rape, Trump is now scandal-proof. !Hilarry's only defence is she hasn't done anything, which is pretty weak sauce. In a partisan age, it does nothing to stop anyone saying she did.
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Nov 3, 2016 12:53
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FactsAreUseless posted:We hosed it up royally because there was no way to fight it other than an indefinite occupation. We could have sent in the airborne to Torra Bora and captured or killed bin Laden right at the start then left. The Bush administration was far to casualty averse in that situation.
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Nov 3, 2016 12:57
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I assume certain news could have increased democratic turnout. I.e., Trump saying the n word probably would have supported black turnout further - people who would tend democratic, but don't like Clinton much for various reasons, and aren't annoyed by trump enough to vote.
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Nov 3, 2016 12:57
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There was a truckton of oppo against Trump, but not all of it is going to stick, so if you go "it was JUST Alicia Machado?!" you're probably missing out on two dozen other stories that would have been just as bad had they been the ones to get national attention, but you don't know which ones will do that, so you just release everything.
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Nov 3, 2016 12:57
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Today in  news https://twitter.com/Yamiche/status/794145017430503424
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Nov 3, 2016 12:59
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radmonger posted:They probably ran it past a focus group and realised it was a net positive in contested demographics. Yeah, I had another Facebook argument with the Bernie-to-Trump guy, and his argument eventually boiled down to saying "Look at all these scandals and emails! There has to be something there, she's totally corrupt," versus me saying "Prove it; 'where there's smoke there's fire' isn't a good argument when she's had enemies trying to smear her for longer than I've been alive." He never provided proof but likewise wasn't convinced by either my pointing out that most of the "scandals" are really nothing nor that Trump is provably corrupt, so about the only thing accomplished there was me putting up long pro-Hillary arguments my relatives may stumble upon if I don't preemptively block them or something for a while.
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Nov 3, 2016 12:59
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I think we can all agree that Undecided Voters are the worst.
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Nov 3, 2016 13:00
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The Ken Bones of America
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Nov 3, 2016 13:01
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Gary Kerns, 42, of Gettysburg is the antichrist.
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Nov 3, 2016 13:01
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Also known as the "Oooo Shiny" Party
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Nov 3, 2016 13:02
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I would like to think that there's going to be a brutal oppo dump today so that it gets a full day of play, followed by Friday analysis which boosts weekend turnout going into the election. That's a pipe dream and it ain't happening but lol if it did.
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Nov 3, 2016 13:02
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Jonas Albrecht posted:Gary Kerns, 42, of Gettysburg is the antichrist. Some people just do not give a poo poo who is in the White House. Average middle-age white dudes get that sort of privilege, since it's unlikely to affect their lives much.
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Nov 3, 2016 13:04
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It's funny how Donald Trump has trouble pronouncing words that begin with the letter H, like "Huma" and "huge". You know who also likes to have a silent H? Spanish speakers!
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Nov 3, 2016 13:09
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FAUXTON posted:I would like to think that there's going to be a brutal oppo dump today so that it gets a full day of play, followed by Friday analysis which boosts weekend turnout going into the election. That's a pipe dream and it ain't happening but lol if it did. Brutal oppo dump: Trump is a dumpster fire of a candidate.
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Nov 3, 2016 13:10
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https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/794136428162719744
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Nov 3, 2016 13:11
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