|
greatn posted:I wonder if in some polls people who already voted just aren't responding anymore, or answer the question "Will you be voting in the Nov 8 election" with the technically correct "No" The polls that aren't loving dumb account for people who voted early.
|
#
?
Nov 3, 2016 18:11
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 12, 2024 21:43 |
|
|
Pakled posted:The polls that aren't loving dumb account for people who voted early. Funny, Nate doesn't
|
|
#
?
Nov 3, 2016 18:11
|
|
|
greatn posted:Funny, Nate doesn't 538 isn't a poll, and anyone who intimates such should probably be banned by now
|
|
#
?
Nov 3, 2016 18:12
|
|
|
greatn posted:I wonder if in some polls people who already voted just aren't responding anymore, or answer the question "Will you be voting in the Nov 8 election" with the technically correct "No" Theoretically, this shouldn't happen because good pollsters would ask if the person has already voted and automatically place them in the LV category if so. Then again, no one said we're dealing exclusively with good pollsters. 
|
|
#
?
Nov 3, 2016 18:12
|
|
|
comingafteryouall posted:If anyone hasn't listened to that Obama speech posted earlier, do it. It is amazing. He roasts the poo poo out of Marco Rubio, the Republican Congress, and even goes after the media a little. This really is fantastic. How difficult is it to get into these rallies, generally? Obama is doing one up in NH on the 7th and I'm toying with going to it.
|
|
#
?
Nov 3, 2016 18:12
|
|
|
Y'all really don't understand how Nate's model works.
|
|
#
?
Nov 3, 2016 18:12
|
|
|
Mind_Taker posted:It's a god drat scam. I mean, here is the text on the ballot: I take it that second part bans any kind of solar incentive/rebate program? Sneaky.
|
|
#
?
Nov 3, 2016 18:13
|
|
|
This election forecast has been stabler than previous elections. Hillary has been in the lead for this entire race, except maybe for a few days after the Republican primary and the media called her the comeback kid. The only thing up in the air is how much she will win by, and if she will have Democrat controlled Senate. Hillary Clinton's favorability rating is garbage because it is campaign season. America is more partisan than ever, so it is not surprising that half the country hates her, since that half lean Republican. The Republican hate machine changed gears from Obama to Hillary. Obama has better favorability rating now because no one is dragging him down. Hillary is obviously someone who loves sea otters and will take sensible steps to ensuring the sea otter population continues to recover, such as protecting marine sanctuaries. Trump will kill sea otters because their fur coats a bigly business in Russia.
|
|
#
?
Nov 3, 2016 18:14
|
|
|
BI NOW GAY LATER posted:Y'all really don't understand how Nate's model works. Miss calling the primaries real bad, try to drive up traffic to your failing site with higher-volatility models, be out of a job in January 2017?
|
|
#
?
Nov 3, 2016 18:15
|
|
|
Mozi posted:You can drive without a seatbelt in NH but I need to get my car inspected yearly in VT to keep it on the road. Just one example of many. wait there's places where you don't get your car inspected yearly? what madness is this
|
|
#
?
Nov 3, 2016 18:15
|
|
|
theflyingorc posted:https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/794216772459229184 I'm guessing this is because of south-american on south-american racism? Like they think trump is only talking about mexicans and not all south americans. Like I don't know too many Latinos and am not Latino myself, but my Venezuelan friend is always like "man, spanish people be racist as hell, you don't even know".
|
|
#
?
Nov 3, 2016 18:16
|
|
|
Ze Pollack posted:Miss calling the primaries real bad, try to drive up traffic to your failing site with higher-volatility models, be out of a job in January 2017? When your post reads like a DJT 3am special, you should reconsider this and all other posts
|
|
#
?
Nov 3, 2016 18:16
|
|
|
Instant Sunrise posted:Missouri goons, Trump is leading the presidential race on 538, but Jason Kander is projected to win by a hairsbreadth, what would the thought process be of somebody voting for Trump and Kander on the same ballot? Missouri loves the outsider narrative and Jason Kander is the outsider, was in the military, had that commercial of him rebuilding the ar-15 blindfolded, and he is also against right to work.
|
|
#
?
Nov 3, 2016 18:16
|
|
|
Ze Pollack posted:Miss calling the primaries real bad, try to drive up traffic to your failing site with higher-volatility models, be out of a job in January 2017? That's not what happened at all
|
|
#
?
Nov 3, 2016 18:17
|
|
|
Mr. Belding posted:That is not the argument that I'm making. What I am saying is that if a weak candidate should lose to a strong candidate by a large margin and Donald Trump does not lose to HRC by a large margin, then either he is not a weak candidate or she is not a strong candidate. I believe he is a weak candidate therefore I am likely to believe that another Democrat would have been better. You would still be welcome to believe that they are both strong candidates or that they are both weak, but there is not another democrat who is stronger out there. You could not reasonably believe that he's a weak candidate and she is a strong candidate, if you accept that a weak candidate should lose to a strong one by a large margin (which is basically the only way those words are meaningful). Thanks, this is a well articulated argument that clears up some of the muddier thoughts i've had about the candidates and my attempts to achieve a more objective (or at least somewhat distanced) view of the current election.
|
|
#
?
Nov 3, 2016 18:17
|
|
|
Ze Pollack posted:Miss calling the primaries real bad, try to drive up traffic to your failing site with higher-volatility models, be out of a job in January 2017? 99 of 100 states is real bad, better not pay him for his work
|
|
#
?
Nov 3, 2016 18:17
|
|
|
Here's a good article on Vermont's hippie communes: http://vermonthistory.org/research/research-resources-online/green-mountain-chronicles/back-to-the-land-communes-in-vermont-1968
|
|
#
?
Nov 3, 2016 18:17
|
|
|
Gone Baptizin posted:Missouri loves the outsider narrative and Jason Kander is the outsider, was in the military, had that commercial of him rebuilding the ar-15 blindfolded, and he is also against right to work. forreal that ad owned and he should win on the strength of that alone
|
|
#
?
Nov 3, 2016 18:17
|
|
|
WeAreTheRomans posted:When your post reads like a DJT 3am special, you should reconsider this and all other posts Not a word a lie, though.
|
|
#
?
Nov 3, 2016 18:18
|
|
|
Ze Pollack posted:Miss calling the primaries real bad, try to drive up traffic to your failing site with higher-volatility models, be out of a job in January 2017? You're just missing a "Sad!"
|
|
#
?
Nov 3, 2016 18:18
|
|
|
Cup Runneth Over posted:99 of 100 states is real bad, better not pay him for his work Ah, the Trump gambit.
|
|
#
?
Nov 3, 2016 18:18
|
|
|
Alec Bald Snatch posted:wait there's places where you don't get your car inspected yearly? Down in TN you never have to get it expected. When I moved to a sane state, it was quite shocking that you had to get an inspection. I thought it was only emissions inspections in some super blue states.
|
|
#
?
Nov 3, 2016 18:19
|
|
|
Ze Pollack posted:Miss calling the primaries real bad, try to drive up traffic to your failing site with higher-volatility models, be out of a job in January 2017? February 2017: Harry Enten's 538. More seriously though, given ESPN's dire financial situation it wouldn't be surprising if 538 gets canned after the election regardless of how accurately they predict the election.
|
|
#
?
Nov 3, 2016 18:18
|
|
|
Alec Bald Snatch posted:wait there's places where you don't get your car inspected yearly? I lived in Maryland for a little while and only time I ever got my cars inspected was when I first bought it and had to get it registered. On the eastern side of Maryland (and probably southern MD) you don't even need to get emissions tested
|
|
#
?
Nov 3, 2016 18:18
|
|
|
hcreight posted:This really is fantastic. How difficult is it to get into these rallies, generally? Obama is doing one up in NH on the 7th and I'm toying with going to it. Go! The man is amazing live.
|
|
#
?
Nov 3, 2016 18:19
|
|
|
So Donny and Super Allah are having dueling rallies in town today. Donny is holding his at the edge of town, closer to the county line than the nearest Early Voting location. At the Jacksonville Equestrian Center. Obama is holding his rally at the University of North Florida. Right off where several of the major roads for the city intersect. It takes ~15 minutes to get to the nearest Early Voting location from the Equestrian Center. There are 3 - 5 Early Voting locations you could already be in line at or already have voted at from UNF, depending on whether or not you follow the speed limit or the flow of traffic.
|
|
#
?
Nov 3, 2016 18:19
|
|
|
Mel Mudkiper posted:That's not what happened at all You don't understand, his model predicted Trump had a 14% chance to win the primary, which was the highest of any candidate, therefore he was a lock to win and Nate was dumb for doubting him.
|
|
#
?
Nov 3, 2016 18:19
|
|
|
BI NOW GAY LATER posted:Y'all really don't understand how Nate's model works. I do, and still have problems with it, and I resent being lumped in with idiots who think Nate is a pollster. E: OH GODDAMMIT
|
|
#
?
Nov 3, 2016 18:20
|
|
|
Given all the shots of trump rallies with lily white assholes holding "blacks for Trump" and "Hispanics for Trump" signs I wonder if there's a contingent of white trump voters misrepresenting their ethnicity in phone polling.
|
|
#
?
Nov 3, 2016 18:20
|
|
|
Alec Bald Snatch posted:wait there's places where you don't get your car inspected yearly? In most places in the US, this is viewed as "big government!  "
|
|
#
?
Nov 3, 2016 18:20
|
|
|
Cup Runneth Over posted:99 of 100 states is real bad, better not pay him for his work The Solyndra gambit.
|
|
#
?
Nov 3, 2016 18:20
|
|
|
Seriously, whoever keeps giving Lowtax  - I am not worth it.
|
|
#
?
Nov 3, 2016 18:21
|
|
|
WampaLord posted:I do, and still have problems with it, and I resent being lumped in with idiots who think Nate is a pollster. Hey if you want I'll pass you a tenner so you can soak the idiot doing that for twenty.
|
|
#
?
Nov 3, 2016 18:21
|
|
|
WampaLord posted:I do, and still have problems with it, and I resent being lumped in with idiots who think Nate is a pollster.  somebody is a big old rear end in a top hat aren't they? 
|
|
#
?
Nov 3, 2016 18:21
|
|
|
Bushiz posted:Given all the shots of trump rallies with lily white assholes holding "blacks for Trump" and "Hispanics for Trump" signs I wonder if there's a contingent of white trump voters misrepresenting their ethnicity in phone polling. They are just holding the signs for their friends who went to the bathroom, honest
|
|
#
?
Nov 3, 2016 18:22
|
|
|
DaveWoo posted:CNN decided to respond to the "post the map" challenge, I guess: 1. LOL 2. Lol gently caress no 3. The mildest of possible Arzying 4. Haha nope 5. ROFL 6. lol
|
|
#
?
Nov 3, 2016 18:22
|
|
|
Pakled posted:In most places in the US, this is viewed as "big government! For real though, yearly seems like an excessive money grab. Every 3 years at most seems sufficient.
|
|
#
?
Nov 3, 2016 18:22
|
|
|
Gyges posted:
And at the FIU rally, BHO literally told the crowd where the voting location was, name and address, and told them to go right after. Stuff like this matters, one-tenth of one percent at a time.
|
|
#
?
Nov 3, 2016 18:22
|
|
|
Soothing Vapors posted:We already asked him this a few pages ago and his answer was "Kirsten Gillibrand," so lol Apropos of nothing, who is that in your avatar?
|
|
#
?
Nov 3, 2016 18:22
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 12, 2024 21:43 |
|
|
Ze Pollack posted:Miss calling the primaries real bad, try to drive up traffic to your failing site with higher-volatility models, be out of a job in January 2017?  This isn't even remotely accurate. He did fairly well with the Dem primaries (and his model actually did fairly well with Republican primaries, he personally refused to acknowledge Trump was winning.) His site isn't failing (Disney has put even more resources into it.) His model has not changed a whole lot since 2008. There are academic criticism of his model that are "valid," but most of the people here do not understand how to make them. Basically if you wanted to actually say that there's something "wrong" you'd need to dig into how it re-acts to polls and at an even more sophisticated level how it's weighting polls and accounting for "additional" things like uncertainty. Ultimately he's just make a prediction based on information being given to him.
|
|
#
?
Nov 3, 2016 18:22
|
|