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Doorknob Slobber posted:i heard the admins just ban anyone who doesn't give abuela a bj The only person I give a bj is Dan Ackroyd and only after I die.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:04
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Roland Jones posted:I am pretty sure this was mentioned already but seriously, an FBI purge is needed at this point. This is absurd. What is it with conservatives and bow ties? (not counting Bill Nye)
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Nov 4, 2016 17:05
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Cingulate posted:Nate set up the model a few months ago and hasn't significantly touched it since. Right, which is why I didn't say he has done it, but rather he will make adjustments at the last minute to give definitive calls to states so that he can again parade around a high accuracy rate despite freaking out for the last year.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:06
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fknlo posted:On conservatives openly celebrating the thing where the FBI is trying to tank Clinton, can you imagine their reaction if it was the other way around?
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Nov 4, 2016 17:07
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https://twitter.com/RiegerReport/status/794559610158018568 The faces. Look at the faces.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:07
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Doorknob Slobber posted:i heard the admins just ban anyone who doesn't give abuela a bj Wrong! You can't give a woman a bj!
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Nov 4, 2016 17:07
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Cimber posted:See: Pre-Brexit polling We have definitive proof - we will be falsely attributing the Brexit vote as killing the idea of polling until the end of time.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:07
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Dexo posted:Wait what? She was talking to Boner Confessor
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Nov 4, 2016 17:08
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Oh, and I should mention that politicians voting a certain way after being influenced by lobbyists is not necessarily because they are moustache-twirling comic book villains plotting to take down America, but more likely due to simple ignorance. Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity, Hanlon's razor, etc. Imagine you're a dumb poo poo Gohmert-style politician sent from the South by rural voters even dumber than you are. You are also pressed for time and money every single day. You might even be a lazy motherfucker, whatever. Why bother spending your own time and effort researching some obscure topic you'll need to vote on but don't give a single gently caress about when you could simply listen to the friendly men and women that come knocking on your door and giving you free poo poo like dinners and Scotch as well as free information on the best ways to vote on an issue? That's practically having your job be done for you! If I had fewer moral scruples, being a Senator bought-and-owned by lobbyists would be a loving sweet and cushy gig, no lie! Literal weeks and months of paid vacation time, too!  Representatives and Senators, whether actively lobbied are not, are some of the most ridiculously pampered people on the planet next to Russian oligarchs compared to Average Joe Worker and have predictably infantile attitudes as a result, which is just rich coming from Republicans bitching about work ethic and needing business leaders like Romney in government. Teriyaki Koinku fucked around with this message at 17:18 on Nov 4, 2016 |
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Nov 4, 2016 17:09
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Son of Isaac posted:It's a real one he borrowed from a friend to make a point about banning assault-style weapons (and he told Capitol Police, at least). ImpAtom posted:Yes it is, and the fact you chose that particular Brexit link is a pretty clear example of the fact you're more interested in trying to promote people being worried and scared than actually discussing it.  Here's the second. Also, that last part is the same conspiracist ideation that leads both Trump supporters and Clinton supporters to accuse Nate Silver of fudging his results to fit his narrative whenever the results of his model don't agree with their preconceptions.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:09
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Teriyaki Koinku posted:No idea, honestly. No specific quota, just glancing at the screen to see "Oh, Obama talked about Medicaid being gutted by Congress and now we're getting slammed with calls from elderly Georgians fearing for their literal survival; guess we should focus on this, huh?" Generally from my understanding it is much lower than many think. At the state level, even in big states, it can be as few as a hundred or two letters or calls to get someone to pick their side on an issue. The trick as activists is to target the right districts and elected officials such that they pick your side when they huddle in that meeting. It isn't a straightforward system by any means, but let's also be honest. The reason the lobbyists are powerful aren't because they meet with the principle, it is because they are powerful that they get the meeting. The meeting itself is just a status symbol without the power to back it up.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:09
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Covok posted:Scrolling down, I see Leave ahead many times on the tracker. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#Polls_of_polls Scroll down and you'll see Leave won plenty of polls.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:09
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Teriyaki Koinku posted:Oh, and I should mention that politicians voting a certain way after being influenced by lobbyists is not necessarily because they are moustache-twirling comic book villains plotting to take down America, but more likely due to ignorance. What you're saying is that we can't let lazy people be politicans. That's gonna be hard.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:10
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http://europe.newsweek.com/donald-trump-vladimir-putin-russia-hillary-clinton-united-states-europe-516895quote:The words that so shocked the British were “our country has no idea,” and “I doubt it.” All of the NATO allies are sure Russia is behind the hacking. All of America’s intelligence agencies are, too. The foreign intelligence services had been sharing what they knew about this with the Americans, and Trump had been told about it. But he blithely dismissed the conclusion of not only the United States but its allies as well, based on absolutely nothing. Trump had no apparent means of developing his own information to contradict the findings of intelligence agencies around the world. And that he would so aggressively fight to clear Putin and cast aspersions on all Western intelligence agencies, left the British officials slack-jawed.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:10
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No Butt Stuff posted:Right, which is why I didn't say he has done it, but rather he will make adjustments at the last minute to give definitive calls to states so that he can again parade around a high accuracy rate despite freaking out for the last year. Crowsbeak posted:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#Polls_of_polls theflyingorc posted:We have definitive proof - we will be falsely attributing the Brexit vote as killing the idea of polling until the end of time. But not that much.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:10
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canepazzo posted:Leave was ahead in most of the 2-3 last months, with a small surge for Remain towards the end when Jo Cox got murdered (which spurred the UKIP shitheads to start crying about false flags). The brexit mistake was not the polls, but people disbelieving them. Much like Primary Trump.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:11
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Covok posted:What you're saying is that we can't let lazy people be politicans. Hillary is the opposite of lazy.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:11
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PST posted:http://europe.newsweek.com/donald-trump-vladimir-putin-russia-hillary-clinton-united-states-europe-516895 Has any foreign leader or political official, apart from Russians, come out in support of Trump? Everyone else seems pretty pro-Clinton.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:11
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Agrajag posted:What is it with conservatives and bow ties? (not counting Bill Nye) No balls to direct attention toward.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:12
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PT6A posted:Has any foreign leader or political official, apart from Russians, come out in support of Trump? Everyone else seems pretty pro-Clinton. Idiot President of Mexico sorta.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:12
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PT6A posted:Has any foreign leader or political official, apart from Russians, come out in support of Trump? Everyone else seems pretty pro-Clinton.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:13
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Radish posted:Idiot President of Mexico sorta. So that's why his people hate him. That and all the other reasons.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:13
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Radish posted:Idiot President of Mexico sorta. 
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Nov 4, 2016 17:14
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I have to wonder how Trump having striking teachers killed would play out. What's the story here?
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Nov 4, 2016 17:15
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going to a taco party on election night, either way it goes it's going to be awkward when i'm the only sober person in the roomTiny Brontosaurus posted:No no no! Talking to boner confessor! I was quoting you to disprove his "only gfsincere and TB complain about the moderation" thing. after seeing more then one attempt at 'okay how can i/we get better with re: moderating' result in no, or at best temporary, change i don't really hold a lot of hope in this changing PST posted:http://europe.newsweek.com/donald-trump-vladimir-putin-russia-hillary-clinton-united-states-europe-516895 donald understand you can't let the facts get in the way of your story i see
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Nov 4, 2016 17:15
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PT6A posted:Has any foreign leader or political official, apart from Russians, come out in support of Trump? Everyone else seems pretty pro-Clinton. North Korea http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-usa-trump-idUSKCN0YN35S
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Nov 4, 2016 17:15
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Cingulate posted:He's not gonna make adjustments to the model at the last minute. They were certainty in the lead in the leadup to Jo Cox's death. Trump has been struggling most of this election.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:15
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canepazzo posted:https://twitter.com/RiegerReport/status/794559610158018568 I forgot NBC was keeping BriWi around by punishing him with cable panel duty.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:16
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PT6A posted:Has any foreign leader or political official, apart from Russians, come out in support of Trump? Everyone else seems pretty pro-Clinton. Duterte likes him, although in that same interview he said he likes Hillary too.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:17
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Radish posted:I have to wonder how Trump having striking teachers killed would play out. Obama is into threeways
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Nov 4, 2016 17:17
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I think the big problem I have with this article http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-just-a-normal-polling-error-behind-clinton/ is that we are currently at the bottom of what seems like a constant fluctuation from a norm of 73.4% If we are at the current bottom of the bubble, why assume the polling error is further negative rather than a regression the mean?
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Nov 4, 2016 17:17
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Radish posted:I have to wonder how Trump having striking teachers killed would play out. Lol it was a meeting of Trudeau, Obama, and EPN and they looked dumb doing a three-way handshake. It's a propos of nothing.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:17
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Agrajag posted:Hillary is the opposite of lazy. She's an awful gunner. Would have made fun of her in 1L. Also would have gotten substantially worse grades than her, even if I'd gotten into her school...
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Nov 4, 2016 17:18
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https://twitter.com/suffolk89/status/794562331200131072
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Nov 4, 2016 17:18
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Evan Bayh is now polling underwater in Indiana. GOP chances of keeping the Senate up considerably if he loses. As an Indiana resident, it seems the more I throw money at this race, the worse it gets.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:17
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Covok posted:Wrong! You should read The Secret. It may change your attitude.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:18
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Cingulate posted:You mean, you see multiple individual polls showing Leave ahead? Setting this aside, Trump has never had as good a showing as Leave did in polling, if Trump wins it's a massive upset of a much larger scope than Brexit, which I think is the stronger point. Trump would kill to be performing as well as Leave did in the polls. And US polling is more consistent and well understood than Brexit, not less. Brexit is basically an admission of weakness, magical thinking.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:18
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Lobbying is not about giving politicians cash. The cash is from the client to the lobbyist. It's about access and informing the politicians. 75% of lobbying is "non-contact" lobbying that involves writing memos, policy analysis, and organization. thank you for this. most actual effective lobbying is not on stuff that are in campaign platforms or anything. it's this esoteric stuff that people don't know much about like the difference between certain logging rights proposals. without lobbying all this stuff would get decided without actually knowing the impact. all the rhetoric about the "revolving door" and poo poo like that would go away if they knew it was just "staffer X who wrote Congressman X's bill on new accounting treatments for depreciation is now advising Senator y on the same issue as a representative of lobbying firm z." also they all have to register and it's a big loving pain.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:20
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PST posted:http://europe.newsweek.com/donald-trump-vladimir-putin-russia-hillary-clinton-united-states-europe-516895 There's so much comedy gold in here. I especially liked the part where even the Russians threw up their hands and basically declared Trump too unpredictable to work with.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:19
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The joke is too easy.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:20
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