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Mel Mudkiper posted:I think the big problem I have with this article
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Nov 4, 2016 17:20
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CascadeBeta posted:This gives me an idea. For every EV Trump gets over 240 I'll donate a dollar per EV to RAINN. 10 dollar base because I'd be shocked if he hits 240. I'll do it by the end of next week after my check clears. Just did something similar. A Winner is Jew posted:Tangent to this:
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Nov 4, 2016 17:19
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me baby.
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We interrupt USPOL with breaking news that transcends all topics, including politics. Dave Chappelle is hosting SNL on November 12th. OK, we return you back to obsessing over polls.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:20
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A Winner is Jew posted:Just did something similar. 
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Nov 4, 2016 17:21
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Bloops Crusts posted:Evan Bayh is now polling underwater in Indiana. GOP chances of keeping the Senate up considerably if he loses. Have there been any other polls with him down than that one? I'm curious, since I don't really see too many Senate polls here with all the other stuff going on.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:21
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My God, it's so simple. Why didn't we think of this?
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Nov 4, 2016 17:21
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Covok posted:The joke is too easy. I was convinced that was satire until I clicked on his profile. Nope, real deal.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:21
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Trabisnikof posted:It isn't a straightforward system by any means, but let's also be honest. The reason the lobbyists are powerful aren't because they meet with the principle, it is because they are powerful that they get the meeting. The meeting itself is just a status symbol without the power to back it up. Bingo. That's why top-name lobbying firms (and consulting firms for the private sector equivalent) that recruits from Ivy League colleges get the big bucks. Prestige and connections play a big role in the Old Boys' Club that is politics, and with your sole value being getting that crucial meeting you're able to command princely sums for your valuable services. Supply and demand, friend. THE FREE MARKET WORKS!(?)  e: This is exactly why I immediately look askance at any Reaganite pushing for privatization of literally everything (especially healthcare) and free trade agreements as a driving political philosophy and crusade with disgust and apprehension. On that note, if you're somehow reading this, go gently caress yourself Paul Ryan. I am deeply ashamed to recognize you as a fellow alumnus and you can take your Ayn Rand doorstops and shove them up your rear end. t 
Teriyaki Koinku fucked around with this message at 17:27 on Nov 4, 2016 |
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Nov 4, 2016 17:22
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Roland Jones posted:I am pretty sure this was mentioned already but seriously, an FBI purge is needed at this point. This is absurd. So now we have someone openly stating that our highest levels of law enforcement are nothing but shills to a yam golem while bragging about their role restarting this non-scandal and little is likely to come form it.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:24
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Mel Mudkiper posted:I think the big problem I have with this article Why assume a regression to the mean instead of a continuing tend? If there's any mean regression, I would think it's toward 50/50, as people's memories fade after whatever news events previously boosted Clinton's numbers.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:26
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Pander posted:when you shake things they go down, not up. Uh... look at the chart. the +2 polling error can be bidirectional.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:26
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Hey, so gently caress arzying. I got a poll for VA that's not only showing C+enough, but a double digit lead on beating back the RTW amendment. My boss just ordered more confetti wands for Tuesday. http://bluevirginia.us/2016/11/new-poll-clinton-49-43-va-orwellian-right-work-amendment-losing-demsreps-polar-opposites-muslim-immigration Winthrop University. First poll on Q1 in a month.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:26
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Gorelab posted:Have there been any other polls with him down than that one? I'm curious, since I don't really see too many Senate polls here with all the other stuff going on. You can see individual senate races on 538: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/indiana/ Looks really good for Bayh, pretty consistent lead with a strong candidate.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:27
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PerniciousKnid posted:Why assume a regression to the mean instead of a continuing tend? If there's any mean regression, I would think it's toward 50/50, as people's memories fade after whatever news events previously boosted Clinton's numbers. Because all of the trends have consistently revolved within the margin of error of the mean.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:27
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Your Boy Fancy posted:Hey, so gently caress arzying. I got a poll for VA that's not only showing C+enough, but a double digit lead on beating back the RTW amendment. What's a confetti wand?
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Nov 4, 2016 17:28
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Mel Mudkiper posted:Uh... look at the chart. the +2 polling error can be bidirectional. Shook Nate joke.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:27
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Northjayhawk posted:We interrupt USPOL with breaking news that transcends all topics, including politics. Oh my god. Has SNL turned into not poo poo this election cycle? The debate sketches were great. We need to spend a lot of time after this election making fun of Trump supporters.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:28
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comingafteryouall posted:We need to spend a lot of time after this election making fun of Trump supporters. Now that the Cubs have won the World Series, baseball can be packed up and this can become the new national pastime.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:29
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PerniciousKnid posted:Why assume a regression to the mean instead of a continuing tend? If there's any mean regression, I would think it's toward 50/50, as people's memories fade after whatever news events previously boosted Clinton's numbers. Because we are currently experiencing the opposite, people's memories are fading after some news events that hurt Clinton's numbers. So she is trending back up toward the mean.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:29
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There is no punishment worse for a Trump supporter than being a Trump supporter.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:29
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PT6A posted:Now that the Cubs have won the World Series, baseball can be packed up and this can become the new national pastime. I thought that was going to be ripping on Ted Cruz. 
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Nov 4, 2016 17:30
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Teriyaki Koinku posted:Bingo. A system that rewards the Old Boys' Club the way ours does is bullshit, I will grant you that. I think that any discussion of effective governance HAS to account for the fact that our legislature is stupidly small. The First Congress represented 4m people (1790 census) and seated, at its largest, 65 representatives, for a ratio of 1 representative for every 61k Americans. The 114th Congress represents 319m people and has 435 representatives, for a ratio of 1 representative for every 733,000 Americans. Yes the framers knew that the population would grow, but each representative currently represents four times as many people as each the first Congress's Senators. People bitch about lobbying and taxpayer dollars spent on Congressional staff, but it's loving insane that we ask 435 people to run the legislature.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:30
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Covok posted:What you're saying is that we can't let lazy people be politicans. Politicians are human animals just like the rest of us. It's really easy to put someone like Jill Stein or Bernie Sanders on a pedestal when you've got plenty of more average and below-average no-name hacks, morons, and incompetents roaming the halls of the Capitol building with their hands on their respective keys to power. Just... let that one sink in for a moment.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:31
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comingafteryouall posted:Oh my god. Has SNL turned into not poo poo this election cycle? The debate sketches were great. SNL is p much always not poo poo during the election year. Also SNL was always pretty bad, except for the good skits that you remember, while conveniently forgetting the bad stuff in the old show.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:31
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Tiny Brontosaurus posted:What's a confetti wand? Party favor. Tube filled with confetti.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:31
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A Winner is Jew posted:I thought that was going to be ripping on Ted Cruz. That's so easy and pointless, it would be the equivalent of T-ball in this analogy. Just practice for clowning on Trump supporters constantly and repeatedly, and ultimately not too satisfying.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:31
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comingafteryouall posted:Oh my god. Has SNL turned into not poo poo this election cycle? The debate sketches were great. I don't even want to think about Trump after this loving election. Besides, our rhetorical guns should shift toward all of the Actually Existing office-holding Republicans who are shredding the social safety net and brutalizing abortion access across the country.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:31
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Is it fair to defend Trump supporters as being especially susceptible to mob mentality? The argument of "People don’t normally think like this, and normally wouldn’t do/say the things they have done/said, but as Johnathan Haid said, we tend to be more surrounded by like-minded people, and I think it makes it easier for people to build upon each other," seems a bit optimistic and nice and all. And while I don't doubt that this election cycle is making some people more sexist/racist, I would like to know if there is any convincing evidence to point to and say, "People were always like this, they just got a bigger voice now."
CmdrRiker fucked around with this message at 17:34 on Nov 4, 2016 |
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Nov 4, 2016 17:32
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A Winner is Jew posted:I thought that was going to be ripping on Ted Cruz. He is a Trump supporter so...
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Nov 4, 2016 17:31
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Tiny Brontosaurus posted:What's a confetti wand? Think Roman candle, only you flick it and confetti flies all over creation. I used them last year in an opera and it's one of the most satisfying things you can do without risking blowing your thumbs off.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:33
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PerniciousKnid posted:Why assume a regression to the mean instead of a continuing tend? If there's any mean regression, I would think it's toward 50/50, as people's memories fade after whatever news events previously boosted Clinton's numbers. Why would you assume 50/50 is the true mean that it would regress back to? I also haven't carefully checked, but whoever was saying it's oscillations around a 74% Clinton win is I think seeing coincidence. The up trends were all around obvious events (convention, debates) and then as time passed those bumps faded, right? As enthusiasm waxes and wanes, different proportions of voters pass the likely voter threshold, so it isn't like the model is saying every debate converted Trump voters to Hillary and then they changed their minds back. Not sure we should read the median chances as the true probability either, though it is more reasonable than assuming 50% if those are the only options. Finally, I like that Cingulate is sticking up for the model, because I do think many are not being fair to Nate or it. Talk of him changing things in the model day by day is not at all fair. But (1) that doesn't mean the model doesn't have problems or (2) that Nate's/538's punditry isn't questionable.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:33
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I just heard the term "Reagan Democrat" on CNN. Am I correct in assuming this is the "nice" way of saying "reprehensible rear end in a top hat white male, but one that still has the tiniest sense of shame?"
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Nov 4, 2016 17:35
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Young Hegelian posted:A system that rewards the Old Boys' Club the way ours does is bullshit, I will grant you that. I think that any discussion of effective governance HAS to account for the fact that our legislature is stupidly small. Isn't that also the Republican's fault, because increasing the number of representatives gives places like California even more power? I remember someone talking about something like that in this or the last thread.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:34
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Your Boy Fancy posted:Think Roman candle, only you flick it and confetti flies all over creation. I used them last year in an opera and it's one of the most satisfying things you can do without risking blowing your thumbs off. I had to vacuum confetti out of a carpet once though, so it just brings back painful memories At least it's not glitter 
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Nov 4, 2016 17:35
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Pastrymancy posted:I had to vacuum confetti out of a carpet once though, so it just brings back painful memories Yes, the downside of that kinda party favor. Sucks to be the one to clean it up. Please don't use confetti wands in carpeted environments.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:35
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PT6A posted:I just heard the term "Reagan Democrat" on CNN. Am I correct in assuming this is the "nice" way of saying "reprehensible rear end in a top hat white male, but one that still has the tiniest sense of shame?" It's northern white Catholic men who finally had enough money and suburban stability and racism to leave the Democrats in the 80s and vote Reagan.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:35
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Mel Mudkiper posted:Because all of the trends have consistently revolved within the margin of error of the mean. The other thing is the fact that gaining supporters yesterday does not, in any way, indicate that he'll gain supporters today! The people in this thread talking about trend lines would lose SO MUCH MONEY day trading
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Nov 4, 2016 17:36
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Young Hegelian posted:Yes the framers knew that the population would grow, but each representative currently represents four times as many people as each the first Congress's Senators. People bitch about lobbying and taxpayer dollars spent on Congressional staff, but it's loving insane that we ask 435 people to run the legislature. On the off-chance, do you have stats on comparable developed countries like Germany or the UK for their respective MP:constituent ratios? I'm curious but also feeling really lazy right now to look it up myself, especially after my last few effort-posts explaining lobbying to Goons. 
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Nov 4, 2016 17:37
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Young Hegelian posted:A system that rewards the Old Boys' Club the way ours does is bullshit, I will grant you that. I think that any discussion of effective governance HAS to account for the fact that our legislature is stupidly small. If those numbers are accurate thats alot more than 4 times as many.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:37
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comingafteryouall posted:Oh my god. Has SNL turned into not poo poo this election cycle? The debate sketches were great. What SNL has done is put Kate McKinnon more and more in sketch after sketch after sketch. The Tom Hanks episode is one of the best full episodes of SNL in a long time IMO
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Nov 4, 2016 17:38
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