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Crow Jane posted:I think if there's a positive to this election (besides Hillary becoming president), it's that a whole lot of stuff is in the open now. It didn't happen in a vacuum, obviously, but I think a lot of people are actually thinking about issues relating to racism and sexism more than they may have in the past. Whether that'll stick with that is up for debate, but I can't help seeing it as a positive. My eyes are certainly more open than they were a few years ago, fwiw it'll be interesting watching the gop toss trump down the george w bush memory hole next wednesday
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Nov 4, 2016 17:50
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Apraxin posted:https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/794554699924078592?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw We all know what "urban" is code for.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:50
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Apraxin posted:https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/794554699924078592?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw Unmotiviated millennials? I've been trying to find a job in my field that pays me enough to live for a year now, and in the meantime I've been working a part time job at a pretty piss poor rate while getting screwed out of paychecks by doing freelance writing. Both of those combined are not enough to pay rent/utilities/insurance/bills. gently caress HIM.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:51
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Not a FREE RAP CONCERT.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:51
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Apraxin posted:https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/794554699924078592?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw What the gently caress? Jay-Z is like the embodiment of the American dream. Grew up a poor kid, used his talent at music to get himself going and spun that into a recording empire. Dude's a perfect example of the kind of protestant work ethic success stuff America eats up.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:51
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5436 posted:Hillary up 5% in markets today, anything happen news or polling wise or early voting numbers? That's a large jump.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:51
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Dexo posted:Like Obama caught hell for having loving Common do stuff with him. Imagine how white you have to be to feel threatened by Common
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Nov 4, 2016 17:52
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axeil posted:What the gently caress? Jay-Z is like the embodiment of the American dream. Grew up a poor kid, used his talent at music to get himself going and spun that into a recording empire. Dude's a perfect example of the kind of protestant work ethic success stuff America eats up. Yeah but he's not white.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:51
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Alec Bald Snatch posted:it'll be interesting watching the gop toss trump down the george w bush memory hole next wednesday The big question is whether Bill will smilingly pose with Trump in eight years time.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:52
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Geostomp posted:So now we have someone openly stating that our highest levels of law enforcement are nothing but shills to a yam golem while bragging about their role restarting this non-scandal and little is likely to come form it. The more I think about it, the more I'm convinced there's a cabal of stupid misogynistic boys' club morons who think they can intimidate the doting grandmother into letting them go hog wild whenever they want after she takes office. Boy, are they in for a surprise. also Covok posted:On the day after the election, they'll be 90% and Nate will post an article about how he can't discount that Trump supporters would lead an armed revolution before next year. ftfy
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Nov 4, 2016 17:52
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Mel Mudkiper posted:Not exactly, bad months for Hillary like June/September took the chances down to the low 60s. I see what you mean, and me calling it coincidence was not quite correct (as in not quite what I meant to say). I meant more that assuming the true probability is around the median is not quite right, because there have been meaningful events that have pushed the probability in each direction. Since we can't assume each piece of news on either side is equivalent, we can't say something like "the first debate was great for Hillary so she reached 85% and the first FBI email non-indictment press conference was great for Trump and Hillary's chances went down to 65%, so the true probability is 75%". If there were no relevant events happening ever, I think we could take the mean and be fairly happy with that as an estimate of the true probability. But the odds have been pushed in both directions numerous times and by unknown deviations from the true probability, so we can't easily infer the "baseline"/true probability just by taking the mean. It took way more words to write out, but that's the sort of thing I was trying to bring up originally. As for 538 vs other aggregators, absolutely. I buy into the reasons why it's too uncertain and too bullish on Trump relative to others, and think those are legit. But I agree with Cingulate that it isn't shook Nate pushing the levers each day differently, or making some huge change to the model because he was embarrassed by the primaries. It's assumptions or methods that worked well in 2008 and 12, but that don't deal well with high undecided voters, or something like that.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:52
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axeil posted:What the gently caress? Jay-Z is like the embodiment of the American dream. Grew up a poor kid, used his talent at music to get himself going and spun that into a recording empire. Dude's a perfect example of the kind of protestant work ethic success stuff America eats up. b-b-b-b-b-b--b-b-but Drugs!!!!!!!!!! and he's black
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Nov 4, 2016 17:52
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Joking aside these are not great numbers for Clinton, being up only 4 points in a poll with a major D lean like PPP.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:53
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DaveWoo posted:PPP came out with a bunch of good numbers for Hillary in several swing states, and early voting in Nevada has pretty much clinched the state for her. theflyingorc posted:Lots of good polls, narrative from Nevada early voting is that it's basically impossible for her to lose there. Thanks, that makes sense over. TheDeadlyShoe posted:I'm pretty sure the huge fall for Hillary in the prediction markets was people trying to get good odds on a trump win, when it'd been favoring Hillary for a while. Now that it's looking like the Trump-trend has halted, you have people who are convinced Hillary will win taking advantage of better bets than previously. The markets aren't as speculative as people think and USUALLY move on information.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:53
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PST posted:UK: 650 MPs which is 1 for every 90k people. Do those legislatures have assigned constituencies the way US congressmen do?
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Nov 4, 2016 17:53
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Apraxin posted:https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/794554699924078592?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw Jay-Z is on his first marriage and is a self-made billionaire you'd think he'd be like the ur-Republican, but 
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Nov 4, 2016 17:54
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 Silent Majority!
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Nov 4, 2016 17:54
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Deified Data posted:Yeah I really hope he's not necessary to retake the senate - if so all hope is lost. He's a former Indiana governor and senator. A popular one, too. Methinks that was the appeal. But Bayh is an insider running in the year of the outsider. In a red state, which Trump is going to win easily. And Todd Young happens to be a fresh face. A fresh face full of crow's feet, but a fresh face nonetheless. And he gets to thump his chest and say, "Ooh-rah" because he's a former US Marine. Power to him, but he still isn't my man. I'm debating on volunteering Monday/Tuesday. Never done it before, but I've never felt like the future of the country and the world was more at stake, so it's kind of motivating me.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:53
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RVProfootballer posted:As for 538 vs other aggregators, absolutely. I buy into the reasons why it's too uncertain and too bullish on Trump relative to others, and think those are legit. But I agree with Cingulate that it isn't shook Nate pushing the levers each day differently, or making some huge change to the model because he was embarrassed by the primaries. It's assumptions or methods that worked well in 2008 and 12, but that don't deal well with high undecided voters, or something like that. Oh totally I completely agree that Nate came to his model honestly, and he may even be right about why he did it. I am just personally erring on the side of the majority of aggregates of which Nate is dead last.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:54
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axeil posted:What the gently caress? Jay-Z is like the embodiment of the American dream. Grew up a poor kid, used his talent at music to get himself going and spun that into a recording empire. Dude's a perfect example of the kind of protestant work ethic success stuff America eats up. But you're forgetting: old white people really really loving hate hip-hop.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:54
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TheScott2K posted:People who actually care about "the size of government" are a pretty small subset of actual Republicans. Oh really? Okay, imagine proposing that we need to inflate the number of Representatives and Senators by an exponential amount and for them to go back to their constituents with the good news. Dude would be primaried so hard Eric Cantor would be taking notes. Genuine Big Government watchdog true-believers might be rare, but every politician cares and worries about not getting primaried and will adjust positions to achieve that outcome.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:56
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Ogmius815 posted:Joking aside these are not great numbers for Clinton, being up only 4 points in a poll with a major D lean like PPP. They are down a little but they are also down compared to the height of Clinton's chances when the last PPP poll was held.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:56
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PT6A posted:But you're forgetting: old white people really really loving hate hip-hop. See: CMAs and Beyonce
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Nov 4, 2016 17:56
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Katy Perry, J-Lo, The National and I think a few others also did/are doing GOTV concerts for Hillary this week. Wonder why Trump's only mad about Jay-Z? 
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Nov 4, 2016 17:56
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Dexo posted:I mean that's actually a smart line of attack. "She's partnering with a person who literally claims to have at one point been a Crack dealer" is a pretty strong line of attack, regardless of how fair that attack is.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:57
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Mel Mudkiper posted:Jay-Z flaunts his ability to skirt the law and objectifies women by their appearance while bragging frequently about his sexual conquests. He also frequently advertises his wealth and is known to get into long drawn out feuds with other media figures. I was about to give you such a posting 
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Nov 4, 2016 17:57
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Mel Mudkiper posted:Because all of the trends have consistently revolved within the margin of error of the mean. Crowsbeak posted:They were certainty in the lead in the leadup to Jo Cox's death. Trump has been struggling most of this election. Periodiko posted:Setting this aside, Trump has never had as good a showing as Leave did in polling, if Trump wins it's a massive upset of a much larger scope than Brexit
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Nov 4, 2016 17:57
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Alec Bald Snatch posted:it'll be interesting watching the gop toss trump down the george w bush memory hole next wednesday
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Nov 4, 2016 17:57
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theflyingorc posted:"She's partnering with a person who literally claims to have at one point been a Crack dealer" is a pretty strong line of attack, regardless of how fair that attack is. Who cares? I know a crack dealer, and the fact that he sells crack is one of the least objectionable things about him. Crackheads gotta get their crack somewhere, ya know?
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Nov 4, 2016 17:57
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theflyingorc posted:"She's partnering with a person who literally claims to have at one point been a Crack dealer" is a pretty strong line of attack, regardless of how fair that attack is.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:58
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Mel Mudkiper posted:Imagine how white you have to be to feel threatened by Common https://twitter.com/AtlantaFX/status/786072003748978688 This White
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Nov 4, 2016 17:59
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PerniciousKnid posted:Because there are two candidates, so absent any strong feelings about the candidates there's a 50% chance of choosing either. If you did a bunch of analysis of voter demographics and such you might determine a more refined number, but it would still be much closer to 50% than 74%. This isn't a coin flip with two equal outcomes, though. There are all kinds of predictors (economic, incumbent party, etc) that make one or the other generic D or R candidate more favored. Beyond that, these are two actual, non-hypothetical candidates. Even in the absence of any campaigning or outside events, I highly doubt voters would split 50/50 between the two. Keep in mind any deviation from 50/50 voting will make for a much larger change in probability of winning. A true voting probability of 50.1 to 49.9 is a 100% chance the 50.1 wins. If the preference for Clinton is 52 to Trump's 48, and we're pretty confident in that, a very close to even split in voter preference is a very high probability of Clinton win. I think you might be partially conflating those two.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:59
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Apraxin posted:https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/794554699924078592?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw Title was originally "Panders to the Blacks and Unmotivated Millennials", but someone edited it to the more acceptable dog whistle language.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:59
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Pastrymancy posted:I had to vacuum confetti out of a carpet once though, so it just brings back painful memories Jesus, we're not Savages. I also made sure this wasn't Mylar. And I own a shop vac. Our celebration is humane.
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Nov 4, 2016 18:00
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Chelb posted:a balm to ease uspol's colicky souls Right into my veins.
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Nov 4, 2016 18:00
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Crow Jane posted:Katy Perry, J-Lo, The National and I think a few others also did/are doing GOTV concerts for Hillary this week. Wonder why Trump's only mad about Jay-Z?
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Nov 4, 2016 18:00
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ImpAtom posted:Yeah but he's not white. He does sling a lot of white though
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Nov 4, 2016 18:00
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Dexo posted:I mean that's actually a smart line of attack. somehow i seriously doubt there's a sizable contingent of republicans jamming re-up gang mixtapes
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Nov 4, 2016 18:01
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Trump, in one sentence: "The system is rigged ... my opponent shouldn't be allowed to run." What the loving hell is wrong with this man and the people who support him? This is just utter madness. And the "lock her up" chants are utterly disgusting, I don't see how any person, even one with political views I disagree with, can see that or participate in that without being sickened and ashamed of what's happening to American democracy.
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Nov 4, 2016 18:01
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Bloops Crusts posted:He's a former Indiana governor and senator. A popular one, too. Methinks that was the appeal. I mean even Mike Pence was once popular enough to be our governor - is there data on how much goodwill there was left for Bayh after he hosed off? Good luck with your volunteering, I hope it goes well and selling Bayh to undecided voters in Indiana isn't the Sisyphean task I imagine it to be.
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Nov 4, 2016 18:00
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