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baw
Nov 5, 2008

RESIDENT: LAISSEZ FAIR-SNEZHNEVSKY INSTITUTE FOR FORENSIC PSYCHIATRY

Inglonias posted:

You guys I am arzying with maps so hard right now.

I took the Trump +2% map from the Princeton site, and gave Trump every toss-up state. Then, I threw him New Hampshire because why the hell not?

Actually writing up all the things I did to make Trump come out on top made me feel a little better about HIllary's chances. Huh.


Anyway, here's my panic map:


remember that barring a miracle NV is in the bag for Hillary ed balls

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Phyresis
Nov 2, 2004

I can't sleep, I hope I stay awake

Cause I've been running, running, running all day

Long nights, no peace

I feel like everybody's eyes on me
Ugh my body is rejecting the food I try to put in it

Epic High Five
Jun 5, 2004



half expecting the cheap emergency pre-paid phone in my glove box to have texts reminding me to vote at this point tbh

Elephanthead
Sep 11, 2008


Toilet Rascal

Dogstoyevsky posted:

Look at this basic 'wich right here.

Cheese is unhealthy he is dead for sure in 50 years.

prefect
Sep 11, 2001

No one, Woodhouse.
No one.




Dead Man’s Band

Drown self in toilet.

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

deathbysnusnu posted:

Paul Ryan being miserable is a blessed given.

Unfortunately, Chuck "YES THE GODDAMN CUBA EMBARGO STILL WORKS" Schumer will now be Majority Leader. :(

prefect posted:

Drown self in toilet.

I was gonna go with "mouse over link to see if it links to Breitbart", but your answer is good too.

deathbysnusnu
Feb 25, 2016


Al! posted:

it makes me very happy that after they went nuts for 8 years because of black president, his replacement is literally the antichrist of conservative mythology

If I were Hillary Clinton, I would be soo tempted to do some policy to really gently caress with their heads. Like a Switzerland style, every family has a mandatory assault weapon in the home or something.

showbiz_liz
Jun 2, 2008
I'm super curious to see how many Republican women cross the aisle for Clinton. No clue if that would translate down-ballot, but I suspect it's gonna take some people by surprise.

corn in the bible
Jun 5, 2004

Oh no oh god it's all true!

Inglonias posted:

No, you're not doing it right. When someone enters the thread arzying and flinging around a panic map, you're supposed to laugh at them and tell them that map is impossible for various scientific reasons. Try again.

it is possible

mormonpartyboat
Jan 14, 2015

by Reene

you have to tell us where they are keeping the classy

we're not getting you a helicopter until you do

it's give and take

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

showbiz_liz posted:

I'm super curious to see how many Republican women cross the aisle for Clinton. No clue if that would translate down-ballot, but I suspect it's gonna take some people by surprise.

Part of me feels like this hypothesis is the left-wing equivalent of the "SILENT MAJORITY FOR TRUMP" theory, but given that women are making up a bigger part of the electorate this year and the enormous gender gap, I feel like there might be some truth to it.

Dogstoyevsky
Oct 9, 2012

If there is no Dog, everything is permitted

Alter Ego posted:

Unfortunately, Chuck "YES THE GODDAMN CUBA EMBARGO STILL WORKS" Schumer will now be Majority Leader. :(

Seriously, why aren't we elevating Durbin instead, is there something wrong with that guy?

mrmcd
Feb 22, 2003

Pictured: The only good cop (a fictional one).

showbiz_liz posted:

I'm super curious to see how many Republican women cross the aisle for Clinton. No clue if that would translate down-ballot, but I suspect it's gonna take some people by surprise.

I feel like this is gonna be a huge thing, but I have no data to back it up so I'm just assuming it won't happen

prefect
Sep 11, 2001

No one, Woodhouse.
No one.




Dead Man’s Band

Alter Ego posted:

Part of me feels like this hypothesis is the left-wing equivalent of the "SILENT MAJORITY FOR TRUMP" theory, but given that women are making up a bigger part of the electorate this year and the enormous gender gap, I feel like there might be some truth to it.

They're Republicans; they'll obey instructions and vote for whoever they're told to.

Schnorkles
Apr 30, 2015

It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.

Alter Ego posted:

Part of me feels like this hypothesis is the left-wing equivalent of the "SILENT MAJORITY FOR TRUMP" theory, but given that women are making up a bigger part of the electorate this year and the enormous gender gap, I feel like there might be some truth to it.

there are huge gender gaps in several states in the EV.

SHY NUDIST GRRL
Feb 15, 2011

Communism will help more white people than anyone else. Any equal measures unfairly provide less to minority populations just because there's less of them. Democracy is truly the tyranny of the mob.

Dogstoyevsky posted:

There's been a few articles suggesting that Congressional gridlock is just going to gradually take the US to a sort of "elected dictatorship" where the President just does stuff by executive actions and signing statements and Congress complains about it and then does nothing. Seems really plausible actually.

So I'm not the only one thinking that.

If it does come to that I think arguments pop up real quick about dissolving congress. Why pay those idiots tax dollars?

Josef K. Sourdust
Jul 16, 2014

"To be quite frank, Platinum sucks at making games. Vanquish was terrible and Metal Gear Rising: Revengance was so boring it put me to sleep."

Tired Don rerunning his greatest hits in NH now.

E: Breaking news..........emails.

That DICK!
Sep 28, 2010

I've only a few days left to live friends

HUGE PUBES A PLUS
Apr 30, 2005

anotherone posted:

Ah yes, the old political saw "The buck stops immediately below me, with people who were acting without my knowledge"

It worked for Rick Snyder, who literally defended poisoning a city with lead with, "I didn't do it, the government did."

Sai
Sep 20, 2004

am i missing something or are the ppp polls from this afternoon still not in the 538 model?

e: just added, bringing clinton to the sex number

Sai fucked around with this message at 17:59 on Nov 4, 2016

The Whole Internet
May 26, 2010

by FactsAreUseless

Schnorkles posted:

NYT thinks HRC is 6 points ahead, you really shouldn't be arzying based on that.

Their forecast relies upon young voter turnout magically ramping up from 12% during early voting to 18% on election day. And 30-44 year voters ramping up from 18% in early voting to 24% on election day.

Clinton is likely not outperforming Obama's 2008 early vote, and seems to be under it by some amount, so she will need to outperform his 2008 election day. That's a tall order.

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

Dogstoyevsky posted:

Seriously, why aren't we elevating Durbin instead, is there something wrong with that guy?

The fact remains that Harry Reid was probably one of the most effective Dem caucus leaders since LBJ, if not the most, and we're going to notice a significant dropoff in quality if it is Schumer.

Plus, you know, all the trolling he did.

theflyingexecutive
Apr 22, 2007


KSA is awesome because she's a republican pollster completely broken by trump and her friend is literally the VP candidate for mcmullin and she still calls him mcmuffin

JAMOOOL
Oct 18, 2004

:qq: I LOVE TWO AND HALF MEN!! YOU 20 SOMETHINGS ARE JUST TOO CYNICAL TO UNDERSTAND IT!!:qq:

Dogstoyevsky posted:

I feel like all the early voting stuff I've seen is of a totally different character than most of the polling. Is this like a prelude to holy-poo poo-GOTV-is-super-important-actually or what's going on here?

people are really, really sick of election

new kind of cat
May 8, 2007

The gently caress is with idiot and goddamned ham sandwiches aka the worst sandwich?

Dignity Van Houten
Jul 28, 2006

abcdefghijk
ELLAMENNO-P



I'll stick with just plain white bread, thank you very much, maybe with a glass of water on the side for dippin'.

Man Musk
Jan 13, 2010

https://twitter.com/CandaceSmith_/status/715149785083297792

Sheng-Ji Yang
Mar 5, 2014


maybe its just the insane partisanship right before a ridiculous election, but america seems like its in a cold civil war

Jewel Repetition
Dec 24, 2012

Ask me about Briar Rose and Chicken Chaser.

babypolis posted:

yeah and when congress blocks him you think president trump will just sit there and take it? his single most distinguishing characteristic is how much a petty, vindictive rear end in a top hat he is. you think that quality will be diminished once hes the most powerful person in the world?

Not to mention, like Chait's article pointed out earlier, being president would give him all kinds of prestige and political capital that would make it hard for his own party to block him in congress without suffering fallout.

Tatsuta Age
Apr 21, 2005

so good at being in trouble


https://twitter.com/tomtomorrow/status/794505864103292929

Elephanthead
Sep 11, 2008


Toilet Rascal
Bernie should be Majority leader.

Samuel Clemens
Oct 4, 2013

I think we should call the Avengers.


velvet milkman
Feb 13, 2012

by R. Guyovich

scott walker is the dumbest motherfucker alive. this simple idiot's amoeboid brain cannot physically distinguish flavours beyond 'ham'

Higgy
Jul 6, 2005



Grimey Drawer
I'm done looking at polls and am just gonna chill and be drunk all weekend. I had to un-shake my wife last night because her news feed is full of horse racin' poo poo.

I had to stop myself from using thread language.

"Honey stop arzying i didn't marry no drat milkdrunk day crew milkshake"

Dogstoyevsky
Oct 9, 2012

If there is no Dog, everything is permitted

Sheng-ji Yang posted:

maybe its just the insane partisanship right before a ridiculous election, but america seems like its in a cold civil war

No, this definitely feels way, way worse to me than previous cycles.

prefect
Sep 11, 2001

No one, Woodhouse.
No one.




Dead Man’s Band

Sheng-ji Yang posted:

maybe its just the insane partisanship right before a ridiculous election, but america seems like its in a cold civil war

What's so civil about war, anyway? :downs:

Epic High Five
Jun 5, 2004



Alter Ego posted:

Part of me feels like this hypothesis is the left-wing equivalent of the "SILENT MAJORITY FOR TRUMP" theory, but given that women are making up a bigger part of the electorate this year and the enormous gender gap, I feel like there might be some truth to it.

There's also historical precedent of otherwise extremely reliably conservative women crossing the aisle to vote against a huge pig. It happened in Texas fairly recently

Drunkboxer
Jun 30, 2007

Elephanthead posted:

Bernie should be Majority leader.

he's not a democrat

redneck nazgul
Apr 25, 2013


https://i.imgur.com/pbjoBsU.mp4

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Epic High Five
Jun 5, 2004



https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/794584311454466048

!!!!!! ARE BOY BERNIE

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