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Some good throwback poo poo I saw while reading about Arzy and Toxxing: Toxxing for McCain in 2012 Also re: fitness chat, I'm late to the party with this, but SWIMMING IS AMAZING. Seriously!! It takes a while to get used to (ie you have to actually have someone teach you decent swimming form to be able to swim laps) but it's absolutely magical once you do. I've been in a basic swimming class for the past couple months and now that I've gotten to a point where I'm not basically drowning myself with my bad swimming form, it's a really, really nice way to do cardio. It's a huge full body workout, low impact, and is a great way to burn gobs and gobs of calories, partly because being in cold water in and of itself makes you burn calories to keep from going into hypothermia. Also it's great for back rehab if your back is screwed up like mine.
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Nov 4, 2016 20:46
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Koyaanisgoatse posted:I should clarify: I know what his assumptions are, I'm just wondering why posters ITT seem to think they're unreasonable or too extreme I think mostly people are just anxious about any chance of a Trump win, and are therefore hoping Silver is overestimating them?
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Nov 4, 2016 20:47
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Ice Phisherman posted:I remember the moment when I lost my respect for Israel. Back in 2013 it came to light that Ethiopian Jews were getting depo shots without their knowledge and against their will in Israel in order to keep them from having children. It struck me hard. The one nation I thought that they at least would reject eugenics and in the end embraced those ideals in a systemic way. IIRC there is literally a mod in D&D that defended this.
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Nov 4, 2016 20:48
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At the rate Hillary has been dropping in the 538 nowcast, Trump will be in the lead on election day. It's been a 1-2 point drop the last few days.
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Nov 4, 2016 20:48
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OddObserver posted:I think mostly people are just anxious about any chance of a Trump win, and are therefore hoping Silver is overestimating them? It's largely this. Even if logically Nate Silver's prediction means Clinton will probably still win nobody wants to acknowledge how frigging terrifyingly close it is.
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Nov 4, 2016 20:49
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Spaced God posted:https://twitter.com/ericmichel/status/794569014311723008 what
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Nov 4, 2016 20:49
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weekly font posted:More that I think Nate has no barrier to entry for polls, like other aggregates do. He's letting some real garbage poo poo swing his numbers. He doesn't discriminate. He lets any pollster in, except for an odd few who've been banned. All the the results are weighted based on pollster quality, however, and unknown pollsters aren't weighted significantly.
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Nov 4, 2016 20:49
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New Wisconsin Senate Poll is: Feingold +2 And if anyone cares about Kansas, it's: Trump: +24 Moran +64 (lol) http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
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Nov 4, 2016 20:49
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Tiny Brontosaurus posted:It is possible to say two bad things are different without meaning that one of them isn't actually bad. Sure but it's also true that Roman slavery was in fact chattel slavery
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Nov 4, 2016 20:50
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A Winner is Jew posted:IIRC there is literally a mod in D&D that defended this. What was the reasoning?
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Nov 4, 2016 20:49
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Bloops Crusts posted:It's not the case that Silver's model is "out of whack" with the rest of the models. It simply expresses a lot more uncertainty about the outcome, which manifests as a higher probability of winning for the candidate behind in the polls and a lower probability for the candidate out front. None of those things matter, this has been the most stable election in terms of polling in recent history, Nate is shook.
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Nov 4, 2016 20:50
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Tiny Brontosaurus posted:God you unbearable twat. I regret every time I try to engage with you in good faith. Tiny Brontosaurus posted:Don't talk to me like we're having a conversation in good faith you incorrigible douchebag. Your views of history are childish and every time you post on anything it's to roleplay this arms-length superiority fantasy you have. "Oh I'm Cingular I'm so above it all, lol at you guys thinking problems exist, don't you know you can attain enlightenment if you literally never read or learn or thing about anything at all. Lol at you at your facts and lived experiences. Everything looks fine to me from my basement." Tiny Brontosaurus posted:The infuriating thing about you is you're too ignorant to even suspect you might be ignorant. Choke on your own dick. Tiny Brontosaurus posted:Fart-huffing white twats like him have no concept of what chattel slavery was and they will Tiny Brontosaurus posted:I just randomly decided this well was a good place to piss. Tiny Brontosaurus posted:"The only thing that matters in every conversation is that I get to feel smart. I will contort my arguments, ignore all context, and drag the goalpost all over the field in pursuit of this. There are no facts. There are only my feelings." Some cogent points there T.B. I would suggest that if there is any comparison to be made between Roman slavery and colonial/American slavery it would be between the Southern plantation system and the Roman latifundia. Both are examples of a sort of industrialized agriculture based on vast estates owned by a small number of wealthy landowners and worked by slaves. Slaves sent to the mines were generally criminals enslaved as punishment, and so bore fewer similarities to the economic system of Southern slavery.
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Nov 4, 2016 20:50
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at every thing you try to say on the subject
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... That, uh, that's not Philadelphia. Edit: Also lol at the idea of finding 300,000 people in Philadelphia supporting Trump.
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Nov 4, 2016 20:50
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Its a joke. Jokes are funny. Laugh at it.
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Nov 4, 2016 20:51
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Ice Phisherman posted:Actually being a Jew in the Roman empire was pretty bad too. See several suppressed revolts and the enormous body counts attached. Yeah, like, what periods and places didn't suck for them? I know they really liked Cyrus, so I'm assuming Persia under him wasn't as bad (and I hear that in general Persia was relatively decent to Jews who lived there), but other than that I can't think of any less-than-terrible times for them off the top of my head.
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Nov 4, 2016 20:51
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Spacebump posted:At the rate Hillary has been dropping in the 538 nowcast, Trump will be in the lead on election day. It's been a 1-2 point drop the last few days. Momentum is dumb pundit poo poo and now cast has a lot less value when multiple major battleground states have had early voting going for weeks.
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Nov 4, 2016 20:51
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ImpAtom posted:... That, uh, that's not Philadelphia. Yeah I figured that based on whatever they're calling Willis Tower now and the fact that everyone is wearing cubs gear. I just didn't get the joke, but I think my sense of humor has been thrown by having to deal with the biz bucks guy and his trumpisms at work this week.
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Nov 4, 2016 20:51
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RVProfootballer posted:In the BCE years, it was an officially legal religion and afaik there was not any systematic persecution. I believe the Jewish revolts were more about political power, but am not an expert. That seems qualitatively different than later persecutory anti-Semitism. this is my chance to promote the ancient world podcast, the current segment bloodlines, starting around episode 13 we end up in judea and the next couple episodes focuses on the history of the area under the roman empire
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Nov 4, 2016 20:51
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Feldegast42 posted:The Demoncrats have successfully summoned Satan Cool. Has he kept the pitchfork, or upgraded to some sort of Demonic Chainsaw by now?
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Nov 4, 2016 20:52
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ImpAtom posted:... That, uh, that's not Philadelphia. uh please dont besmirch the Philadelphia Cubs in this, their moment of triumph. nerd
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Nov 4, 2016 20:52
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No Butt Stuff posted:Yeah I figured that based on whatever they're calling Willis Tower now and the fact that everyone is wearing cubs gear. I just didn't get the joke, but I think my sense of humor has been thrown by having to deal with the biz bucks guy and his trumpisms at work this week. Chicago had a rally today to celebrate the winningest team in baseball
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Nov 4, 2016 20:52
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Zerilan posted:Momentum is dumb pundit poo poo and now cast has a lot less value when multiple major battleground states have had early voting going for weeks. Don't more people vote on election day and isn't Trump expected to attract a lot of voters that don't normally vote? People that don't normally vote but decide to randomly are more likely to vote on election day.
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Nov 4, 2016 20:53
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wow nothing cringier than Shook Nate throwing shade around https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/793997083367931904
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Nov 4, 2016 20:54
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Tiny Brontosaurus posted:Chicago had a rally today to celebrate the winningest team in baseball The Yankees? 
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Nov 4, 2016 20:54
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Radish posted:I still think the end result will be Clinton winning by 4% popular vote and that the tightening of these week 0 polls was definitely going to happen as Republicans realized it was the rapist idiot or Hillary Clinton. I have a weird suspicion that we're going to see a bigger popular vote margin in favor of Clinton than her EV total will suggest. Like a 2012 looking EV map, give or take, but a popular vote margin edging towards 2008. 1) Clinton is going to run up the score like CRAZY in her "safe" states. Like, Trump is going to lose some traditionally solid blue states by gigantic margins I think. This doesn't get her more EVs of course, but just inflates her popular vote total. 2) Clinton has been closer than normal in places that should be catastrophically hopeless like Texas, Georgia and Utah. She probably gets none of those states, but way more people voting for her in those places than voted for Obama will inflate her popular vote total without giving her any EVs. 3) Her GOTV organization being infinitely better than Trump's is another X factor that the polling can't give us any insight into. Is it 1%? 5% 
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Nov 4, 2016 20:55
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P. sure that is a Cubs victory event in Chicago today. edit: It is obviously in Chicago, I am assuming that it has something to do with the cubs.
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Nov 4, 2016 20:54
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A Winner is Jew posted:The Yankees? The Rockford Peaches 
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Nov 4, 2016 20:55
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So any actual news or is it just drama in the 1000+ comments?
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Nov 4, 2016 20:56
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there wolf posted:What? What do you think chattel slavery is? The Roman's owned other people as property, and bought and sold them. They were chattel. And I'm sorry but you can infact compare slavery to other slavery, since they're the same thing. Roman slavery was lovely like transatlantic slavery was lovely. It was an immoral practice that exploited labor and was used to break communities, weaken their cultures, and bring them under the Roman heel. Ah, no I meant it more so as a "slave forever with no hope of freedom," rather than "personal property." Roman slaves didn't have 0 hope of freedom. Their form of chattel slavery wasn't near as awful as transatlantic slavery.
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Nov 4, 2016 20:56
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Ash Crimson posted:So any actual news or is it just drama in the 1000+ comments? the
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Nov 4, 2016 20:56
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Spacebump posted:Don't more people vote on election day and isn't Trump expected to attract a lot of voters that don't normally vote? People that don't normally vote but decide to randomly are more likely to vote on election day. There's absolutely no evidence to support the Trump campaigns belief that they are attracting previously uncommitted voters. In fact we KNOW that Hillary is bringing in tons of previously inactive Hispanics so new voters are going to help her more than him. Also Colorado is looking strong. https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/794627523636318208
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Nov 4, 2016 20:56
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Meanwhile, Restraining order enacted against Trump, Stone, and the Ohio GOP in order to prevent voter intimidation 
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Nov 4, 2016 20:56
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Spacebump posted:Don't more people vote on election day and isn't Trump expected to attract a lot of voters that don't normally vote? People that don't normally vote but decide to randomly are more likely to vote on election day. Only by wishful thinking. This baseless hope has been mostly dismissed because if this was happening, we should have seen a big surge in voter registration in those poor white counties Trump is hoping rise up.
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Nov 4, 2016 20:56
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:previously inactive Hispanics I'll have you know that Hispanics are hard-working, industrious people
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Nov 4, 2016 20:57
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ImpAtom posted:It's largely this. Even if logically Nate Silver's prediction means Clinton will probably still win nobody wants to acknowledge how frigging terrifyingly close it is. Most other models/aggregators don't have it as terrifyingly close at 538 though. Wondering why doesn't mean you're denying reality or making GBS threads on 538 for dumb reasons (though you also might be!).
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Nov 4, 2016 20:57
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Martha Stewart Undying posted:Ah, no I meant it more so as a "slave forever with no hope of freedom," rather than "personal property." Roman slaves didn't have 0 hope of freedom. Their form of chattel slavery wasn't near as awful as transatlantic slavery. Also roman slaves were recognized to be other humans, not some species of animal
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Nov 4, 2016 20:57
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A Winner is Jew posted:The Yankees? Cheaters don't count
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Nov 4, 2016 20:58
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Northjayhawk posted:Only by wishful thinking. This baseless hope has been mostly dismissed because if this was happening, we should have seen a big surge in voter registration in those poor white counties Trump is hoping rise up. Trump's entire GOTV was saying "Ya gotta register" once or twice at his rallies, which I'm sure got forgotten between beers 4 and 5 when the deplorables got home that night.
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Nov 4, 2016 20:58
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Tiny Brontosaurus posted:Also roman slaves were recognized to be other humans, not some species of animal Ehhhhh, kind of. Slaves occupied an incredibly lovely legal and social place. For instance, you couldn't take the testimony of a slave unless it was given under torture because you know them slaves and their penchant for lying!
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Nov 4, 2016 20:58
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Spaced God posted:https://twitter.com/ericmichel/status/794569014311723008 Oh my god I just figured it out.
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