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Can someone show me a somewhat likely map which shows Clinton losing, while winning Florida? Maybe if she lost Pennsylvania and Michigan and (Nevada or New Hampshire)? Edit: I guess this would be the map.  The way I see it, Florida is a tossup. But if she wins it, she will win the election. So that's already at least a 50% chance. But there are plenty maps she can win without Florida. So I still kinda think her winning chances are a bit undervalued. I will probably make a Clinton bet soon. What a pretty picture to start a new page. cant cook creole bream fucked around with this message at 10:11 on Nov 6, 2016 |
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Nov 6, 2016 09:49
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CannonFodder posted:Well for neighbors, I have a neighbor with a Never Hillary sign. For idiot co workers, someone at the Ocala terminal offered up the information that he could never vote for Hillary because of the Bible. The Bible says that a man should never be subservient to a woman. And why should he go against God? My friend is no longer watching 'shark tank' because Mark Cuban is a trump hater.
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Nov 6, 2016 09:55
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No, we cannot. NV is an apparent lock for Clinton. With Florida she only needs PA and then that's a gg. If by some magic Trump gets Pennsylvania, Hillary can take VA and Wisconsin. Both over 90% chance to go to Dems (Pennsylvania has 'only' 89% lmao). Then the rest don't matter and it's gg again. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html?_r=0 People have been so loving shook this election that the media bought Trump's bullshit and have yet to realize that "oh poo poo, this dumb motherfucker has like no way to win!" and NV just sealed that deal.
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Nov 6, 2016 10:01
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SSNeoman posted:No, we cannot. NV is an apparent lock for Clinton. With Florida she only needs PA and then that's a gg. Nothing's final until the votes are in, you can hardly blame people for being concerned that the Republicans could control all three branches of government along with a literal mentally ill person having his tiny fingers on the button
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Nov 6, 2016 10:07
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Lemming posted:Nothing's final until the votes are in, you can hardly blame people for being concerned that the Republicans could control all three branches of government along with a literal mentally ill person having his tiny fingers on the button We can definitely blame them for coming up with increasingly unlikely scenarios to panic over rather than taking a deep breath, hitting up the nearest taco truck, and praising Dread Abuela's impeccable GOTV game.
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Nov 6, 2016 10:15
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There's also the Senate to arzy about. If we don't gain the Senate then that's a substantial loss.
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Nov 6, 2016 10:20
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How close are all the senates? nm I looked it up. http://edition.cnn.com/2016/11/03/politics/senate-races-flip-2016/ Rodatose fucked around with this message at 10:31 on Nov 6, 2016 |
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Nov 6, 2016 10:23
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Liquid Communism posted:We can definitely blame them for coming up with increasingly unlikely scenarios to panic over rather than taking a deep breath, hitting up the nearest taco truck, and praising Dread Abuela's impeccable GOTV game. Never stop expecting the worst of deplorables in and out of power until the Black Queen takes her rightful throne and the Senate and Court are infiltrated, as unlikely as her defeat in the presidential election is. For these are the people that would cast away democracy for revenge like they have with everything else. Do what you can to help sane and functional government exist until the elections are over.
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Nov 6, 2016 10:29
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Rodatose posted:How close are all the senates?  Now as you can see there are five on track to win but most of them are fairly slim margins. Sam Wang gives the Dems an 80% chance of winning the Senate, accordingly. Personally, I think  's ground game and Satanic pacts mean we'll also get the two ties, NH and MO, but I don't know the situations there. If Satan really delivers on His Dark Promise, we might pick off Rubio too, which would just be swell in my opinion. gently caress that thirsty little man. Of some note is that I think Murkowski on this list can be negotiated with, though that's more "the GOP tried to gently caress her hard and she won a write-in campaign against all odds."
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Nov 6, 2016 10:35
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What sort of numbers would Trump have to pull to take NV at this stage?
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Nov 6, 2016 10:35
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KaptainKrunk posted:What sort of numbers would Trump have to pull to take NV at this stage?
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Nov 6, 2016 10:36
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question, why is it bad to have any sort of relation to Russia? i mean i don't trust trump and he want to work for russia for his hotel, but why can't Hillary talk to pudin and work together on some trade or poo poo.
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Nov 6, 2016 10:43
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Because Putin is an authoritarian piece of poo poo who keeps annexing parts of neighboring countries and is actively trying to undermine the American presidential election
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Nov 6, 2016 10:44
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SSNeoman posted:People have been so loving shook this election that the media bought Trump's bullshit and have yet to realize that "oh poo poo, this dumb motherfucker has like no way to win!" and NV just sealed that deal. I don't know if this is a weird question to ask, but are any of you putting money on this? I'm not from the US, so I don't understand why the outcome is such a lock, but I feel like if I knew something was a sure thing and no one else did I could put my life savings on it and make a lot of money. PredictIt is still selling Hillary shares at 77c (when from reading this thread I'd expect it to be more like 99 cents). Unfortunately, I don't even know what these maps and poo poo mean, so I can't bring myself to do it. Goons have been wrong before.
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Nov 6, 2016 10:47
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Cyron posted:question, why is it bad to have any sort of relation to Russia? i mean i don't trust trump and he want to work for russia for his hotel, but why can't Hillary talk to pudin and work together on some trade or poo poo. Trumps got money running all over the place and he's not disclosing any of it. Does he have financial conflicts of interest that would hinder him doing his job as Potus? Probably. Is it some of it headed towards the oligarchy that runs Russia? What influence will that have over him when it comes to matters of national security/diplomacy? Edit: to the poster above I've got 350$ on it. I've done OK betting on elections in the past and this looks like quite a good thing @ 1.50$ hiddenmovement fucked around with this message at 10:53 on Nov 6, 2016 |
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Nov 6, 2016 10:51
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hiddenmovement posted:Trumps got money running all over the place and he's not disclosing any of it. Does he have financial conflicts of interest that would hinder him doing his job as Potus? Probably. Is it some of it headed towards the oligarchy that runs Russia? What influence will that have over him when it comes to matters of national security/diplomacy?
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Nov 6, 2016 10:55
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Lemming posted:Nothing's final until the votes are in, you can hardly blame people for being concerned that the Republicans could control all three branches of government along with a literal mentally ill person having his tiny fingers on the button This is something I was wondering about, but maybe it's a question not close enough to election stuff. I'll ask, but if it's out of topic bounds please feel free to ignore me. Other than their own common sense, is there any check on the President's nuclear authority? The way people talk about the metaphorical button makes it sound like if the POTUS decides a place needs a radiation bath there's no internal stopping them, but I don't know how true that really is or isn't.
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Nov 6, 2016 11:06
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HorseRenoir posted:Because Putin is an authoritarian piece of poo poo who keeps annexing parts of neighboring countries and is actively trying to undermine the American presidential election An authoritarian piece of poo poo who is 5-10 years shy of the prime window for senility, and has functioned above both international *and* his own country's 'laws' since taking office. If anyone ever decides to depose Putin - they'd better not gently caress up and miss. Also, given everything we know about Putin - if he is ever put in a position where he might have to answer for himself and/or potentially get off the gravy train he's been the conductor of for sixteen years and running (every so often letting his BFF run things so he can go off and have naked Bear and Siberian Tiger orgies), do you really think he'll gently caress off *quietly* to his dacha, or seriously consider burning the world instead, because if he can't be a significant part of controlling it, why should anyone else get to? Mind over Matter posted:This is something I was wondering about, but maybe it's a question not close enough to election stuff. I'll ask, but if it's out of topic bounds please feel free to ignore me. Other than their own common sense, is there any check on the President's nuclear authority? The way people talk about the metaphorical button makes it sound like if the POTUS decides a place needs a radiation bath there's no internal stopping them, but I don't know how true that really is or isn't. The National Command Authority is a 'two-man system.' The President alone cannot order the *immediate* use of nuclear weapons. It requires a second authentication (usually the Secretary of Defense as he/she will be on the NEACP, but all Cabinet members are instructed how to utilize the system should the SecDef not be available). It's *definitely* not a perfect system, but in the presence of an unsound mind on behalf of the President, it does incorporate the need for a second party to go "yeah sure, let's go with crazy this time - sanity hasn't been working." The reason the system isn't perfect is that if SecDef doesn't concur with the order, the President can fire him, and then, all it takes is an almost never-ending line of undersecretaries until one of them confirms the order. So yes, if on January 20th, right after giving his inauguration speech, Trump says "I wanna come on the scene with a 'bang' - drop a B83 on ISIS," all he needs is the Football and the SecDef who's obligated to concur with the Commander-in-Chief and authorize its use. Oh, right...and the US has never agreed to a "no first use" policy in regards to nuclear weapons. Under *any* President since their invention. Including Obama. BIG HEADLINE fucked around with this message at 11:25 on Nov 6, 2016 |
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Nov 6, 2016 11:11
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Cyron posted:question, why is it bad to have any sort of relation to Russia? i mean i don't trust trump and he want to work for russia for his hotel, but why can't Hillary talk to pudin and work together on some trade or poo poo. Putin, in addition to his charming habit of randomly invading Eastern Europe, is actively attempting to interfere with western democratic elections via hacking, organizing widespread online disinformation/psyops campaigns and financially backing far-right candidates. There wouldn't be any problem having normal relations with Russia if its leader weren't actively trying to restart the Cold War.
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Nov 6, 2016 11:14
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Mind over Matter posted:This is something I was wondering about, but maybe it's a question not close enough to election stuff. I'll ask, but if it's out of topic bounds please feel free to ignore me. Other than their own common sense, is there any check on the President's nuclear authority? The way people talk about the metaphorical button makes it sound like if the POTUS decides a place needs a radiation bath there's no internal stopping them, but I don't know how true that really is or isn't. There is no practical checks outside secdef verifying that the order is given. The system for the president launching nukes is designed for speed and efficiency, not debate, discussion and second-guessing. There is some vague ideas that the people who actually fires the nukes might not do it (because it's basically extinguishing the world), but as it has been mentioned previously, the crew on the nuclear subs actually don't know whether it's a drill or the real thing until the missiles don't launch, so there isn't actually a choice involved at all. There are however at least one pretty serious set of checks and balances in place to prevent planet-wide nuclear devastation, it's goes as follows: DON'T ELECT A LITERAL FASCIST MORON AS PRESIDENT!
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Nov 6, 2016 11:16
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Meh, I wanted to make a bet, but the market seems a quite a bit worse by now. I'd only get $125 for $100. I mean it still looks like I'd win free money, but that corresponds to a 80% chance. While I think that $150 for $100 i.e. 66% odds seem underrated, I'm not sure if I can give her 80% odds. Also there are quite high betting taxes around here. I guess I wont make that bet.Mind over Matter posted:This is something I was wondering about, but maybe it's a question not close enough to election stuff. I'll ask, but if it's out of topic bounds please feel free to ignore me. Other than their own common sense, is there any check on the President's nuclear authority? The way people talk about the metaphorical button makes it sound like if the POTUS decides a place needs a radiation bath there's no internal stopping them, but I don't know how true that really is or isn't. Nope. There's no such thing as a sanity check. If the president orders it, the people operating the nuclear nuclear missiles have to follow his command within minutes. I guess some would commit high treason and refuse that command, but you can bet that that's not all. And once a few missiles are in the air, the others will follow anyway (What's there to lose at that point). This system is in place so that a president has always the final say. Just imagine if a Soviet puppet was in a place of high power and could stop the president from demonstrating the might of the USA. But obviously nobody would ever elect such a person President. cant cook creole bream fucked around with this message at 11:36 on Nov 6, 2016 |
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Nov 6, 2016 11:17
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The only other check-and-balance on the use of nuclear weapons is the willingness of those who have the responsibility to drop/launch them to have the constitution to turn the key or press the button. Here's the story of a guy who asked an ~unconscionable~ yet logical question back in 1973: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harold_Hering Also, just gonna leave this here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1EO9y4rGxvk
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Nov 6, 2016 11:28
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Hollismason posted:This election has really strained my relationships with my family. I will be glad when it is over. Especially in light of my sisters latest FB post. A teacher with a masters and two daughters is going Trump.
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Nov 6, 2016 12:10
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https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/795222914475917312 Expecting generalissimo Donald "Patton-Rommel" Trump to share his hot take in how this will absolutely be a disaster like Mosul.
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Nov 6, 2016 12:17
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My favorite part of this election has been everyone realizing how lovely their family members are. They have always been this way - you just never paid attention. I have got a deplorable brother, but he is an Ann Coulter megafan - so I didn't expect any better. If you run him through the issues one by one, he doesn't agree with them on anything, but he is still a die hard wingnut.
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Nov 6, 2016 12:37
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Im amazed people are confident enough to bet when elctoral college fuckos are flipping to trump and the fbi is messing around like that
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Nov 6, 2016 12:38
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canepazzo posted:https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/795222914475917312 Given his love for Putin it's very likely he's also a fan of Erdogan in which case he'll be quoting the Sultan on why this is very bad and that the Kurds are terrible. Surprise Giraffe posted:Im amazed people are confident enough to bet when elctoral college fuckos are flipping to trump and the fbi is messing around like that If they lose the bet and Trump wins we're all dead anyway so there's no real downside. ReV VAdAUL fucked around with this message at 12:42 on Nov 6, 2016 |
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Nov 6, 2016 12:39
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ReV VAdAUL posted:
Yes. It's kind of like betting against the 2012 apocalypse. Seriously though, there are strong indications for a market crash in case of a Trump presidency. It already happened a bit when Comey sent his letter. He will manage to tanke the international markets, before even issuing any policies. Maybe even before the inauguration. So realistically, your money is worth way less if he wins anyway. cant cook creole bream fucked around with this message at 12:52 on Nov 6, 2016 |
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Nov 6, 2016 12:48
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canepazzo posted:https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/795222914475917312 This wouldn't have happened if Trump hadn't pointed out how stupid it was to attack Mosul after announcing it well before. Pentagon and SDF are learning from the master of deception!
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Nov 6, 2016 12:50
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Do Trump supporters actually believe he has a secret plan to defeat ISIS, instead of just claiming that so he has time to wing it eventually?
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Nov 6, 2016 12:55
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Cingulate posted:Do Trump supporters actually believe he has a secret plan to defeat ISIS, instead of just claiming that so he has time to wing it eventually? Hillary has been fighting ISIS for all her adulthood, and look how far that has gotten her. Donald Trump has a yuuge brain and the best genes - THE BEST - which is why he is endorsed by all the best retired generals, therefore he knows how to solve this. First, you nuke Mosul
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Nov 6, 2016 13:04
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I'm sure four years after ISIS is no longer a regional threat we are gonna be hearing about how much Clinton and Obama hosed up on handling them.
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Nov 6, 2016 13:05
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I know you've got sanctions on Russia over Crimea, but what if Hilldawg worked out a trade deal or something. Jesus Christ, I wish the US could get away with half as much poo poo that autistic kgb jackass gets away with and still have people wanting to use kid gloves. Unbelievable!
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Nov 6, 2016 13:06
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Radish posted:I'm sure four years after ISIS is no longer a regional threat we are gonna be hearing about how much Clinton and Obama hosed up on handling them. Hah no, attention will turn back to new Ben Ghazi hearings as soon as Raqqa falls.
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Nov 6, 2016 13:07
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oh cool are we posting maps here's mine:
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Nov 6, 2016 13:14
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Kilroy posted:oh cool are we posting maps here's mine: Hah Texas but not Ohio seems questionable
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Nov 6, 2016 13:22
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ZHrSK0l3dY Everything I know about Americans, I know from Dave Chappelle. So here he talks about how (white) Americans don't like to share whom they're voting for. Was that a thing that's changed? Recently? Cause everyone seems to have a story about their family talking about supporting Trump.
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Nov 6, 2016 13:24
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Killer-of-Lawyers posted:Jesus Christ, I wish the US could get away with half as much poo poo that autistic kgb jackass gets away with and still have people wanting to use kid gloves. Unbelievable! They use kid gloves precisely because Putin is considered unstable, or at best unpredictable. You don't kick a bear if it's liable to suddenly maul you. Elect Donald Trump, and you'll get your wish.
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Nov 6, 2016 13:25
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Cingulate posted:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ZHrSK0l3dY
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Nov 6, 2016 13:25
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Surprise Giraffe posted:Im amazed people are confident enough to bet when elctoral college fuckos are flipping to trump and the fbi is messing around like that If they're even going to be flip, and aren't just trying to generate interest in the pipeline protest
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Nov 6, 2016 13:27
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