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I will never get the fantasy community's obsession with Knile Davis
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Nov 5, 2016 19:32
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Benne posted:I will never get the fantasy community's obsession with Knile Davis he is the poster boy for why handcuffs are stupid. I think deep down, and they won't admit it, it's shades of LJ/Priest Holmes and that seamless handoff because they're Chiefs. Ignoring that Jamaal Charles has an all-time YPC because he's Jamaal loving Charles and not because they have a competent offensive line
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Nov 5, 2016 19:43
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Spoeank posted:he is the poster boy for why handcuffs are stupid. I think deep down, and they won't admit it, it's shades of LJ/Priest Holmes and that seamless handoff because they're Chiefs. I am so anti handcuff, I generally undervalue it to the point where I don't even consider drafting guys like Ware, even with Charles. I need to adjust that perspective a bit in light of this season. Then again, I am number one in points scored in two of the three leagues I did take Charles, so maybe stay the course. Doltos posted:I think he was a good pickup at the draft but he still has to get up to NFL size to be a HB who takes advantage of the good interior play on our line. Giants tackles are still abysmal in the run game so don't hold your breath. In my big money dynasty league, I am in bye week hell. Either risk Hyde not playing or start Perkins. Any chance he contributes this week?
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Nov 5, 2016 20:01
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The only time you should ever think about taking a "handcuff" is a guy that has stand-alone contributing value so that he's of use to you even if the guy in front of him doesn't get hurt. Guys like Gio, Powell, etc. Also a guy like DeAngelo Williams when LVB misses time to start the season, but if I had Williams, I'd probably end up trading him to the LVB owner right about the time he was set to come back. If you want to waste a bench spot on a guy that doesn't score points, have a good time, I'm not taking that sucker bet because it works out once every 50 times e: I took Derrick Henry in my pubbie auction league because I already got Murray for like $15 less than market value and I was hoping that he might be involved in the offense in some way that would allow me to emergency flex him or something if I needed to. Now he's just sitting on my bench doing nothing and I guess it feels good having that insurance policy there, but I a) also have Gio and Booker, so it's not the end of the world if Murray goes down and b) my WRs are Julio/Brown/Hilton so like I give a poo poo what my RBs do as long as they do something 
Teemu Pokemon fucked around with this message at 20:18 on Nov 5, 2016 |
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Nov 5, 2016 20:04
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I went on a handcuff spree and picked up Jacquizz Rodgers, Mike Gillisle, and Devante Booker in the same week a month ago, and drafted Spencer Ware to handcuff my Jamaal Charles pick. Man, handcuffs are stupid, that didn't work out at all 
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Nov 5, 2016 20:23
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Well, Gillislee had his moment in the sun that is all but assuredly over and Rodgers is a perennial disappointment that has been bounced around the league because of his inability to learn playbooks and the one time that a team gets so desperate that he's thrust into meaningful action, he gets hurt worse than the incumbent starter So yeah I'd say it worked out just fine gj Booker owner  Also Ware doesn't count because Charles has been done since before the season started 
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Nov 5, 2016 20:30
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Dexter McCluster lol. Can we see Kniles Davis on another team this season please?
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Nov 5, 2016 20:33
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89 posted:I went on a handcuff spree and picked up Jacquizz Rodgers, Mike Gillisle, and Devante Booker in the same week a month ago, and drafted Spencer Ware to handcuff my Jamaal Charles pick. All of those situations are different. Rodgers stopped being a handcuff once Sims went on IR. Gillislee was filling in for a hurt McCoy and Booker's usage had been increasing on a per game basis. Also, at the time you drafted Ware, he was the starter. 
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Nov 5, 2016 20:51
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Managing the appropriate mix of risk (which handcuff considerations are part of) is probably the hardest part of season-long fantasy. A lot of factors go into it - scoring, starter composition, league size, bench size etc. There are actually a lot of situations where I think having a handcuff is really valuable. More generally, it's often a great move to hold lottery tickets for running backs that would inherit a workhorse role if the guy in front of them went down - the ~5% injury risk per game for feature backs is way higher than it looks. For example, if you started the season with just two valuable handcuffs, it would only take 8 weeks before you are more likely than not to have one of them fall into an opportunity. A lot of the time, your best bet is simply to hold onto the best injury plays, regardless of who owns the starter. In my self-evaluation from earlier this week I talked a bit about how much the rest of the fantasy community seems to be systematically undervaluing the Bookers, Gillislees, Alfs, Bilals etc. of the league. These are usually way more important holds than sitting Jalen Richard on your bench or something (which is not an uncommon mention on WW columns these days), even if they aren't doing jack poo poo in the meantime. That's precisely the point - you want to inherit the three-down role that the guy in front of him has. But one problem with this is the timing issue. The most common number of games missed after an injury is 1, 2, or 3 games, in that order. Lets say Zeke gets hurt and you were holding on to Alf. But your starters are already Forte and Coleman. Do you play Alf over either? Maybe flex him over Michael Thomas? The expected benefit is actually pretty marginal. Then within 1-3 games, Zeke is back and all of a sudden Alf is back to playing second fiddle. Maybe you didn't even play him, despite "hitting" on the gamble! Now, bye weeks and injuries to your own guys (RIP AP, Lacy, Charles, CJA, Ameer etc) mean that it's certainly not unlikely that you'd have an opening. Leagues with a lot of flex spots and deep benches are really good instances to simply horde all the best lottery tickets. But it's also not uncommon to already have better plays than gambles that "hit" for a few games. I picked up Tyrell Williams early in a bunch of leagues (dropped $40 FAAB on him during the preseason in one goon league), and have also sat him a bunch of times because I liked my other WRs better that week - and Tyrell is a top-30 WR right now! The unplanned nature of the sudden value increase and the short-lived returns makes it hard to build a team around. Because ultimately what matters is who you're starting each week, not how clever you look with the dudes on your bench (well ok, looking clever is also fun, but it doesn't win you money or titles). Taking your own handcuff is simply a way to ensure that if one of your lottery tickets hit, it'll be at a time when you are most likely to have room to start him - because you've lost a starter in the process! I see this as more than a tiebreaker. For example, if you're a Murray owner, maybe you take Henry over Alf, even if you think Alf's upside is slightly higher in the event of a injury to the starter. It's because you're not looking at the upside in a vacuum - the difference in the probability that you'd be able to actually start a lottery ticket that hits can actually increase the expected value of your own handcuff to you above a guy with higher ideal upside. In vanilla-ish 10/12-team leagues, there are a couple instances where I'm more likely to want my own handcuff (if he's actually a good lottery ticket). For instance, I like to take my own handcuffs at the very tail end of the season, where fewer games means fewer opportunities for lottery tickets to hit, a loss of my RB1 would be a disaster for my playoff chances, and most importantly, I'm passed the trade deadline and thus can't shuffle around value to compensate for losing an RB1. I also like holding my own handcuff when I have a ppr RB2 that I really like, such as Coleman or 2015 Woodhead. It makes it less likely that a random 1-3 game "hit" would crack my roster, putting more weight on the timing issue in figuring expected value. tl;dr: lottery ticket RBs are important regardless of who owns the RB1, but handcuffs are particularly valuable in circumstances where it's most helpful to "time" your "hits" correctly.
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Nov 5, 2016 20:52
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On that note, what's everyone think about Kenneth Dixon coming out of the bye? Worth a stash? I want to pick him up but then I'd have to play without a D. Considering grabbing him and then dropping for a Sunday/Monday night D if a win is on the line.
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Nov 5, 2016 20:59
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*stares longingly at Deandre Washington on my bench*
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Nov 5, 2016 21:03
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LmaoTheKid posted:*stares longingly at Deandre Washington on my bench* Yup. Someone put together a list of preseason handcuffs and we can see all the hits and misses.
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Nov 5, 2016 21:14
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Maybe this belongs in Sit/Start, but if my RB2 options are Bilal Powell and Matt Asiata, the move is 100% dependent on whether McKinnon plays, right? What if McKinnon plays but it's limited?
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Nov 5, 2016 21:15
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LmaoTheKid posted:*stares longingly at Deandre Washington on my bench* Has our collective opinion changed for him long term? I have been evaluating my dynasty roster for next season and plan on cutting four players off my roster for rookies. As it stands, I think he won't survive cuts and am wondering what we think of him? I haven't really watched Oakland, so I'm not sure how to judge him.
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Nov 5, 2016 22:41
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Sataere posted:In my big money dynasty league, I am in bye week hell. Either risk Hyde not playing or start Perkins. Any chance he contributes this week? Honestly no clue. I think if he gets any significant usage it will be in the low teens. Coughlin always traditionally stuck with whoever could block for his third down back but I have no clue what McAdoo will do with Rainey vs Perkins in the pass game. Even then Eli prefers to check it down to RBs instead of using them as an option on the progression.
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Nov 6, 2016 01:58
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I put all my eggs in the Charles/Davis basket last year, which did not work out well. So this year I drafted 3 stud WRs and a whole mess of RB2s and handcuffs (12 team PPR): Beckham Evans Cooper Hyde Walker *Abdullah (RIP) Bernard Ware TWest *Sharpe Booker *Chiefs *Tannehill *DeAndre Washington Prescott *Aguayo (lol) * means dropped It's worked out really well so far. I'm 5-3 and #1 in points scored. I think it's a combination of luck and strategy. Could have had more injuries or ineffective WRs. The Zack fucked around with this message at 13:37 on Nov 6, 2016 |
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Nov 6, 2016 02:13
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Sataere posted:Now queue Bernard going down got the season. As a Gio owner on 1 ppr, that would warm the cockles of my heart.
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Nov 6, 2016 13:21
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Sataere posted:Has our collective opinion changed for him long term? I have been evaluating my dynasty roster for next season and plan on cutting four players off my roster for rookies. As it stands, I think he won't survive cuts and am wondering what we think of him? I haven't really watched Oakland, so I'm not sure how to judge him. Oakland doesn't want to use anyone as a bellcow. Murray does get the majority of the touches, but we're talking like 60/40 to about 3 other people. Maybe Washington is worthy keeping in a dynasty league, but it'd probably be more dependent on if you're on the fence between him and someone else. edit- more to the point, he hasn't looked great with the touches he does get
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Nov 6, 2016 13:34
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Forever_Peace posted:Managing the appropriate mix of risk (which handcuff considerations are part of) is probably the hardest part of season-long fantasy. A lot of factors go into it - scoring, starter composition, league size, bench size etc. Thanks for this. You have a terrific way of quantifying & qualifying what we often just brush off as just hunches or "feelings".
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Nov 6, 2016 14:30
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Suave Fedora posted:Thanks for this. You have a terrific way of quantifying & qualifying what we often just brush off as just hunches or "feelings". Think of it as taking guessing to a higher level.
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Nov 6, 2016 15:48
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Fantasy Football 2017: Pro-Tier Guesswork
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Nov 6, 2016 15:49
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:Fantasy Football 2017: Scrub-Tier Guesswork Edited to make it more truthful in a non mean but fair way.
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Nov 6, 2016 15:58
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My entire bench is on bye, I dropped a defense to replace Cobb at WR
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Nov 6, 2016 16:28
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I'm so hype for a bunch of scrub RBs to combine for like 400 rushing yards in SF today (including Ingram as a scrub because he's gonna get like 110 yards on 12 carries)
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Nov 6, 2016 16:33
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Spoeank posted:I'm so hype for a bunch of scrub RBs to combine for like 400 rushing yards in SF today (including Ingram as a scrub because he's gonna get like 110 yards on 12 carries) Ingram going to put up 100 yards and then break his hand. Classic Ingram.
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Nov 6, 2016 16:36
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London games are dumb, but dumb is better than none. It was nice waking up at 8 and getting to watch some football while having coffee. Now I'll actually have to find something to do for 3 hours
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Nov 6, 2016 16:35
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is Ryan Mathews worth picking up off the WW? I would dropping Meredith.
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Nov 6, 2016 16:48
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I don't want to sound like an rear end in a top hat (too late) but it seems like a lot of you guys made some really boneheaded RB pick ups in the draft that could have been diagnosed as not a smart pick up at the time of the draft. Ryan Mathews? Did you really think Latavius Murray was going to be worth that third round grade on a pass first team? Jamaal Charles just tore his ACL and you backed him up with Kniles Davis? I mean half the people in my league were swapping Charles and Davis back and forth for some reason. Adrian Peterson is old and busted and you still spent a first rounder? No sympathy for anyone right now. There's barely been any injuries to solid RB options but it seems like this was the year where everyone drank the kool aid on a lot of dumb picks (I'm looking at my friend who posts on this forum and HAD to have Mark Ingram with his second rounder).
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Nov 6, 2016 17:00
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quote:I'm so hype for a bunch of scrub RBs to combine for like 400 rushing yards in SF today (including Ingram as a scrub because he's gonna get like 110 yards on 12 carries) What's the O/U on Daniel "Zenner" Lasco's ownership numbers this time next week? quote:Thanks for this. You have a terrific way of quantifying & qualifying what we often just brush off as just hunches or "feelings". Thanks! I do it for me too. Writing it out helps me sort through my own thoughts better. Nothing like trying to teach something to force you to get your poo poo in order. Doltos posted:I don't want to sound like an rear end in a top hat (too late) but it seems like a lot of you guys made some really boneheaded RB pick ups in the draft that could have been diagnosed as not a smart pick up at the time of the draft. Ryan Mathews? Did you really think Latavius Murray was going to be worth that third round grade on a pass first team? Jamaal Charles just tore his ACL and you backed him up with Kniles Davis? I mean half the people in my league were swapping Charles and Davis back and forth for some reason. Adrian Peterson is old and busted and you still spent a first rounder? Doltos posted:I think Gurley should absolutely be the first RB off the board this year. He's going to get good usage and is just insanely talented. You don't have to worry about him losing touches on third down, goal line, passing situations, or when the Rams go down a TD or two. Fantasy is hard, dude. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Nov 6, 2016 17:09
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^^ 
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Nov 6, 2016 17:23
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Boom. Headshot.
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Nov 6, 2016 17:30
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Look, I'm not trying to pick on Doltos. I respect that he's one of a handful of folks that routinely puts himself out there, which is really hard, and he gets as many hits as the best of em. It's easy to be the Statler and Waldorfs of the world when you're too cowardly to actually take risks yourself, and that's not Doltos in the slightest. Just wanted to remind him to offer the same affordances to the rest of us, since it appears he forgot. =P
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Nov 6, 2016 17:34
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Dear Ben Roethlisberger's knee, Please don't explode today.
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Nov 6, 2016 17:40
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Forever_Peace posted:Look, I'm not trying to pick on Doltos. I respect that he's one of a handful of folks that routinely puts himself out there, which is really hard, and he gets as many hits as the best of em. It's easy to be the Statler and Waldorfs of the world when you're too cowardly to actually take risks yourself, and that's not Doltos in the slightest. Hindsight snark in fantasy football is really grating and I'm glad you found that old post. We all throw darts, no need to act like you knew all along about This One Thing.
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Nov 6, 2016 17:48
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I knew Tight Ends are garbage
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Nov 6, 2016 17:52
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Spoeank posted:I knew Tight Ends are garbage I've played in a league for 9 years without a TE spot so I'm way ahead of you 
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Nov 6, 2016 17:54
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This is why I try not to have opinions. I often fail.
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Nov 6, 2016 17:55
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No TE spot is easy mode. 2 TEs. Embrace pain. 
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Nov 6, 2016 17:56
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Spoeank posted:No TE spot is easy mode. 2 TEs. Embrace pain. I already embrace pain by playing fantasy football to begin with.
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Nov 6, 2016 17:57
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I said Charles was a bad pick and no one listened. I also said that DJ/Zeke/Miller were dangerous at their ADP soSpoeank posted:I knew Tight Ends are garbage yo
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Nov 6, 2016 18:21
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