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Is the general consensus that this site is going to pretty much dry up completely after the 8th?
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Nov 5, 2016 21:12
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Yeah, after the election the only things left are going to be the short-term, flip-a-coin polling markets, or long-term 'will a supreme court justice be confirmed in next 6 months' markets. And boy, in the last 24 hours my 'gain/loss' has improved dramatically. I guess people were really expecting things to keep getting exponentially worse for Clinton, and when they leveled out they regained their senses.
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Nov 5, 2016 21:58
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Has anyone successfully been able to sneak into a contract once it's reached max users if someone sells their shares or something? I've maxed out Hillary YES and VP Pence NO, but I didn't get into the other contracts early enough and I'm wondering if there is a way to get in by continuously refreshing or something.
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Nov 5, 2016 22:31
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Discospawn posted:Yeah, after the election the only things left are going to be the short-term, flip-a-coin polling markets, or long-term 'will a supreme court justice be confirmed in next 6 months' markets. Ive gone from +2900 just before the comey bullshit, to -1600 earlier this week, back to +1300 right now, and i havent traded at all.
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Nov 5, 2016 22:50
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Class Warcraft posted:Has anyone successfully been able to sneak into a contract once it's reached max users if someone sells their shares or something? I've maxed out Hillary YES and VP Pence NO, but I didn't get into the other contracts early enough and I'm wondering if there is a way to get in by continuously refreshing or something. Yup, just keep refreshing till you can get in.
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Nov 5, 2016 22:50
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Necc0 posted:A lot of these markets aren't actually going to close and settle on Nov 9th. They're going to wait until the electoral college actually votes which won't be until two months after the election on Jan 6th. Also to add: the rules of per-state president markets are based on winning the popular vote. You are likely to wait a while for Hillary Yes to resolve from the electoral college vote but already have paid out on FL/VA/NV Dem Yes. Of course, it's also possible for a state to have a recount and wait a while.
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Nov 6, 2016 00:49
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Discospawn posted:Yeah, after the election the only things left are going to be the short-term, flip-a-coin polling markets, or long-term 'will a supreme court justice be confirmed in next 6 months' markets. I'm a little sad that this is going to mostly be over after Tuesday. Is there going to be a decent market for midterms or is this going to be mostly goodbye until 2020?
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Nov 6, 2016 01:26
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OAquinas posted:The lovely part is, even though one side has gotv efforts and the other does not, the polls are so universally poo poo that you can make that claim for just about any number or margin of Victory and have it be somewhat accurate or at least sound right. I declare that Hillary will over perform her polls by at least six points, chose your average
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Nov 6, 2016 03:42
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Dogwood Fleet posted:I'm a little sad that this is going to mostly be over after Tuesday. Is there going to be a decent market for midterms or is this going to be mostly goodbye until 2020? This site was plenty active before the primaries kicked up. If anything it's actually better when there's less activity because it give you more time to take advantage of mis-priced markets.
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Nov 6, 2016 07:04
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So, is the market for a candidate winning at least 50% of the vote looking crazy low to anyone else? Last time that didn't happen was 2000 and the Ross Perot 1990s Boogaloo.
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Nov 6, 2016 15:25
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Gyges posted:So, is the market for a candidate winning at least 50% of the vote looking crazy low to anyone else? Last time that didn't happen was 2000 and the Ross Perot 1990s Boogaloo. No, I think it is highly unlikely that either candidate will get 50%. There's a good chance there will be a significant increase in 3rd party votes this year (including McMullin in Utah) compared with 2008 & 2012, and the last week has shown that Clinton's national lead may only be a couple percentage points. In 2008, Obama only got 51.1% of the popular vote, and he was considered to have beaten his polling VERY significantly. To put it into numbers, I don't think that market would be appealing for YES until it got into single digits.
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Nov 6, 2016 16:13
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Loaded up on Arizona NoRep.
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Nov 6, 2016 21:22
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Hello Nasty Women and Bad Hombres! Goons have raised over $25,000 for RAINN (Rape, Abuse, & Incest National Network). It's a fantastic non profit group that spends 93 cents of every dollar donated on directly helping survivors and preventing sexual violence. Anything you're able to give will matter and make a difference! Join us and post your donation in this thread to add to the tally! And if you'd like a sweet as hell gang tag, go on to post in the Nasty Woman / Bad Hombre Donation Thread. Let's do something Good! 
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Nov 6, 2016 21:24
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Elephanthead posted:Loaded up on Arizona NoRep. Goonspeed 
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Nov 6, 2016 21:26
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Elephanthead posted:Loaded up on Arizona NoRep. Good luck with that?
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Nov 6, 2016 21:34
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If you're going to go for longshot states on the basis of record Hispanic voter turnout, might as well buy some dirt-cheap Texas shares for like 8 cents.
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Nov 6, 2016 21:38
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bawfuls posted:If you're going to go for longshot states on the basis of record Hispanic voter turnout, might as well buy some dirt-cheap Texas shares for like 8 cents. Well that goes without saying but I am hoping I can dump them for good profit after early return wrecks Trumps poo poo.
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Nov 6, 2016 21:50
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Elephanthead posted:Well that goes without saying but I am hoping I can dump them for good profit after early return wrecks Trumps poo poo. The site working properly Tuesday evening is part of the gamble. I don't have the nerve for it.
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Nov 6, 2016 21:52
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bawfuls posted:If you're going to go for longshot states on the basis of record Hispanic voter turnout, might as well buy some dirt-cheap Texas shares for like 8 cents. I would take Arizona way before I take Texas. Tons of polls show Arizona tied, not so much in Texas.
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Nov 6, 2016 21:59
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With the latest FBI drop, everything is beginning to swing hard back toward Hillary. You can ride the wave right now or lock in your last chance at discount prices in many states.
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Nov 6, 2016 22:00
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in case anyone else thinks it's weird, NC Senate is 15-20c cheaper than NC Pres. The last two polls that had both races had the ~same margins still a long shot, but I'm vaguely optimistic about Ross given the surprisingly high female turnout so far (>55/45) given the difference in preference by gender from recent polls
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Nov 6, 2016 22:07
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Holy poo poo PI swings hard on email news
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Nov 6, 2016 22:12
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Nate silver kept me from going all in. Now I'm reading his model benefits trump way too much
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Nov 6, 2016 22:23
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First 4 or 5 minutes of this are great: https://soundcloud.com/electionprofitmakers/bonus-episode-the-epm-mixtape
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Nov 6, 2016 22:33
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Discospawn posted:No, I think it is highly unlikely that either candidate will get 50%. There's a good chance there will be a significant increase in 3rd party votes this year (including McMullin in Utah) compared with 2008 & 2012, and the last week has shown that Clinton's national lead may only be a couple percentage points. johnson and stein will not break 2.5%. they totaled like 1.25% last time. i agree they'll see an uptick, but no way is it significant, especially given the 'horserace' narrative and how awful johnson has done this cycle. mcmullin might get 35% in one state. let's say third party amounts a generous 5% of the vote. that leaves 95% remaining, meaning the mov would have to be 5 or more, which is right where the polling is. now let's bring that third party number back to reality and say 2.5%. that leaves 97.5%. mov could be as low as 2.5% and it'd still hit. people in that market are forgetting there are no 'undecideds' in the actual results. they keep looking at the 4-way numbers and ignoring this. really it's another market on mov, and simple math. i'd max it at 55c personally abelwingnut has issued a correction as of 22:45 on Nov 6, 2016 |
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Nov 6, 2016 22:42
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Abel Wingnut posted:johnson and stein will not break 2.5%. they totaled like 1.25% last time. i agree they'll see an uptick, but no way is it significant, especially given the 'horserace' narrative and how awful johnson has done this cycle. mcmullin might get 35% in one state. I don't have anything in that market, but what makes you so confident that they won't break 5% together? Johnson is likely to do that by himself. If Stein gets 3% and McMuffin and various weird write ins and weird options get an additional 2% then we are looking at Trump and Hillary splitting the remaining 90. Lots of folks live in uncompetitive states and don't like either one. 10% voting other is very reasonable
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Nov 6, 2016 23:16
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holy poo poo. G/L is back in the green, that was a very lovely week
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Nov 6, 2016 23:16
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Abel Wingnut posted:johnson and stein will not break 2.5%. they totaled like 1.25% last time. i agree they'll see an uptick, but no way is it significant, especially given the 'horserace' narrative and how awful johnson has done this cycle. mcmullin might get 35% in one state. i agree with this post and maxed it at 50c and do not regret it
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Nov 6, 2016 23:27
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Zeta Taskforce posted:I don't have anything in that market, but what makes you so confident that they won't break 5% together? Johnson is likely to do that by himself. If Stein gets 3% and McMuffin and various weird write ins and weird options get an additional 2% then we are looking at Trump and Hillary splitting the remaining 90. Lots of folks live in uncompetitive states and don't like either one. 10% voting other is very reasonable 2012 was 1.7% third party 2008 was 1.4% third party 2004 was 1.0% third party 2000 was 3.7% third party You have to go back to 1996 to get over 5%, that year was 10.1% third party, mostly Perot. And remember, Gary Johnson and Jill Stein were also the 2012 major third party nominees. Nobody wanted them then, why would they want them now? And McMuffin's only going to be big in Utah and maybe Idaho, if at all. People who just don't like the major candidates tend to not vote at all rather than vote for hopeless losers.
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Nov 6, 2016 23:37
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fishmech posted:2012 was 1.7% third party Extrapolating from the polling, Johnson will get quite a bit more of the vote this year than in 2012. The reason he has more supporters now is essentially because there are a set of college-educated Republicans who do not want to vote for Trump but were happy to vote for Romney. But he won't reach the 5% the Libertarians need to secure federal funding, thankfully. Total third-party vote inclusive of all candidates will probably be 5% or so.
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Nov 7, 2016 00:13
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Vox Nihili posted:Extrapolating from the polling, Johnson will get quite a bit more of the vote this year than in 2012. The reason he has more supporters now is essentially because there are a set of college-educated Republicans who do not want to vote for Trump but were happy to vote for Romney. But he won't reach the 5% the Libertarians need to secure federal funding, thankfully. Aren't the early voting numbers showing 0.fart% for Johnson?
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Nov 7, 2016 00:29
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2012 was only the 3rd time a Democratic presidential candidate has broken 50% of the popular vote more than once. I just think that if a relatively popular incumbent can barely do it, this election is unlikely to have as good of a result for Clinton.Dmitri-9 posted:Aren't the early voting numbers showing 0.fart% for Johnson? Early Voting numbers just show who has voted based on party affiliation , which in most states only lets you pick Republican, Democrat, Other, and Unaffiliated. You will not know how many of these are votes for actual candidates (including 3rd parties) until the results are released on election night. Discospawn has issued a correction as of 01:12 on Nov 7, 2016 |
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Nov 7, 2016 01:03
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Dmitri-9 posted:Aren't the early voting numbers showing 0.fart% for Johnson? All we can see from early voting is that Republicans and non-affiliated voters are voting in certain numbers. We can't tell whether they're voting for Johnson or Trump or whoever else. Very few of Johnson's potential supporters are registered Libertarians.
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Nov 7, 2016 03:04
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PI is now showing 0 toss up states:
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Nov 7, 2016 03:11
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By the way, those interested in the third-party vote totals can participate in this little market: https://predictit.com/Market/2716/What-percentage-of-the-popular-vote-will-Gary-Johnson-win It appears that the expectation at this point is for Johnson to get no more than 5% of the vote. Money is about equally spread between 4-5%, 3-4%, and under 3%.
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Nov 7, 2016 03:20
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i want to thank this thread for helping me make some easy money!
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Nov 7, 2016 03:22
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Uhhh, fair warning: somebody has been posting child porn in the comments of Predictit with multiple accounts, so if you enjoy harassing Trump supporters, or if you are just checking markets, you might want to be careful. Does Disqus have any moderation at all?
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Nov 7, 2016 06:53
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I'm so glad this site is a thing. I used to simply yell at selfish selfish stupid people, but now I can yell at selfish stupid people while taking their money. My internet experience has improved threefold.
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Nov 7, 2016 07:03
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Fidel Castronaut posted:Uhhh, fair warning: somebody has been posting child porn in the comments of Predictit with multiple accounts, so if you enjoy harassing Trump supporters, or if you are just checking markets, you might want to be careful. What they have is extremely rudimentary. When the Billy Bush video came out I tried to write "Grab her by the pussy" in a comment and it got rejected. But child porn? How dumb do you have to be? In order to be on there don't they have to know your real name, your real bank/credit card number, your social security number?
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Nov 7, 2016 07:24
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I think Disqus accounts aren’t necessarily tied to your PI account. It’s still insane to commit felonies for no reason.
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Nov 7, 2016 07:31
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