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Nate RFB posted:I believe the point is that RCP undersold Obama's numbers by near as makes no difference 4 points, and in general just seem to go out of their way to make any given race always seem closer than it actually is. It's not RCP's fault in this case - Nevada polling is notoriously inaccurate in general.
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Nov 7, 2016 17:56
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:The 2012 results prove it. Heller ran 8 points better than Romney. That is by definition not a 1:1 correlation between ticket results. He is talking about polling errors being consistent between top of the ticket and down ballot, not that votes are equal.
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Nov 7, 2016 17:58
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RVProfootballer posted:He is talking about polling errors being consistent between top of the ticket and down ballot I know and I agree with that. Nevada is notoriously difficult to poll. It was in dispute of people saying that NV-Sen is a lock because of the Clinton vote. He quoted the part about 1:1 ticket result correlation and said it hadn't been proven.
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Nov 7, 2016 17:59
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seiferguy posted:I'm pretty familiar with the demographics of WA State (I live here, I figured my av might have given that away Yeah, who would have thought making an native activist an elector was a good idea(if what they wanted was obedience)? Its a reasonable question that should be put to the people who pick electors in WA state. It looks like they're decided at convention? It may have been something done to try to bring Bernie supporters more in line that has hilariously back fired. also I feel dumb for not noticing your avatar, I tend to tune them out. Doorknob Slobber fucked around with this message at 18:03 on Nov 7, 2016 |
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Nov 7, 2016 17:59
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), it was more how did he get picked by the Dems and now he's got a chance to be a faithless electorate. Seems like there should have been some better vetting going on.
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Trump is doing five rallies today? Makes me feel exhausted just thinking about it. What's Hillary's schedule look like today?
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Nov 7, 2016 18:00
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Early votes are probably not a random sample of total votes.
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Nov 7, 2016 18:00
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Combed Thunderclap posted:Trump is doing five rallies today? Makes me feel exhausted just thinking about it. Chillin' on the beach drinkin' a fuckin' mai tai
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Nov 7, 2016 18:01
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Combed Thunderclap posted:Trump is doing five rallies today? Makes me feel exhausted just thinking about it. Pittsburgh and Michigan.
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Nov 7, 2016 18:01
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Combed Thunderclap posted:What's Hillary's schedule look like today? Very low energy probably.
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Nov 7, 2016 18:02
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:I know and I agree with that. Nevada is notoriously difficult to poll. It was in dispute of people saying that NV-Sen is a lock because of the Clinton vote. He quoted the part about 1:1 ticket result correlation and said it hadn't been proven.
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Nov 7, 2016 18:03
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Combed Thunderclap posted:Trump is doing five rallies today? Makes me feel exhausted just thinking about it. https://hillaryspeeches.com/scheduled-events/ Looks like 4 events for HRC today
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Nov 7, 2016 18:03
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computer parts posted:Every indication this year has been that Nevada is not being polled correctly. We are in 2016 Hillary and Trump are running for president.
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Nov 7, 2016 18:04
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Hollismason posted:We are in 2016 Hillary and Trump are running for president.
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Nov 7, 2016 18:04
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Keep in mind trump has to do so many rallies because he only had himself and pence. Hillary has a other people that will turn out voters like Obama, Michelle, Warren, etc Trump has mike pence.
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Nov 7, 2016 18:04
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DaveWoo posted:It's not RCP's fault in this case - Nevada polling is notoriously inaccurate in general. Plus let's face the facts, Reid has a habit of blowing GOTV expectations out of the water.
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Nov 7, 2016 18:05
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BobTheJanitor posted:It says something when even Oklahoma early voting numbers are more than double the previous record. Not sure what it says exactly, but my hope is that people don't turn out early and in force because they want to vote for the fascist molester. That said, there's no way in hell OK ever turns blue, but I have some vague hope that maybe not every single county is red this time. This is from a few pages back, but I did it on Saturday morning and was way longer than it was in 2008, and that was on a weekday. I think a lot of the early voting probably has more to do with the state questions than anything else, considering that there's criminal justice and alcohol sales reform on the ballot. On the cool side of things, when I went to my county office to vote, the buses from a large African-American church pulled up and I got to stand in line in the middle of a huge African congregation. I also got to hear an old minister who clearly marched during the civil rights era give an impromptu but impassioned speech about voting. It made waiting in line for hours worth it.
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Nov 7, 2016 18:05
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Hollismason posted:We are in 2016 Hillary and Trump are running for president. The person who narrowly lost in 2008 and the id of the Republican Party are running for President, who could've guessed that?
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Nov 7, 2016 18:06
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Ein Sexmonster posted:NV senate has been polling in line with NV president though. There's no reason to assume Masto will massively underperform. You can't just say "Well senate and president aren't always in line" and leave it at that. Agreed. I was just disputing the people saying that NV-Sen is a lock because of Clinton's early votes. 1) There is not a 1:1 ticket correlation. 2) Polling is volatile, especially in NV. 3) Polling is very very close in the Senate race. 4) Republican down ballot candidates tend to run better in NV in general and probably will do much better than Trump this year. For these reasons, it is not fair to call NV-Sen a lock, even though the Early Vote turnout for Dems looks good.
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Nov 7, 2016 18:06
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Guy Goodbody posted:As I understand it, there's three possible outcomes tomorrow What I really want when all of this is said and done is something like this. Hillary wins. The GOP continues to collapse. The Democrats become the intellectual and spiritual successors to Dwight Eisenhower. The new challenge comes from a legitimate leftist democratic socialist party. By 2024 the election is a business friendly centrist Democrat duking it out with a clone of Jeremy Corbyn made by the newly leftist, post-purge FBI using a stolen saliva sample. Mr. Belding fucked around with this message at 18:09 on Nov 7, 2016 |
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Nov 7, 2016 18:06
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https://twitter.com/brianlehrer/status/795643861326589952 huge if true
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Nov 7, 2016 18:07
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FizFashizzle posted:Keep in mind trump has to do so many rallies because he only had himself and pence. Does anyone actually not hate Mike Pence? He's the least charismatic person I can possibly imagine, next to Scott Walker.
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Nov 7, 2016 18:08
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Spiffster posted:The eternal political pessimist in me will always believe in the worst case scenario on polls. Usually a good policy, in my book, but this time around, I think one can afford to be a little more dismissive of 538. Their model has budget too much for catastrophic polling errors in Trump's favor, and I'm not sure that makes sense at this point.
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Nov 7, 2016 18:08
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Bird in a Blender posted:We should go to just popular vote, but if we are keeping it, we should at least go to electoral votes based just on the House instead of House + Senate, that at least evens up the electoral vote disparity between small and large states, it also hurts Republicans. I'm super late, but since any change at that level to the Electoral College requires an amendment, we might as well get rid of it at the stage where we'd have enough support to change anything about it. It's a dumb, anti-voter system.
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Nov 7, 2016 18:08
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Running a campaign is kind of a stressful job. I don't think they get a lot of chances to rehearse those speeches either. I know it's only because it's feeding his ego. But I can't help but giving Trump the smallest amount of respect for not keeling over. I'm sure I would, even though I'm only 25 and mostly fit.
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Nov 7, 2016 18:09
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Uhhh I posted this in C-SPAM because I didn't realize this thread was back but Nate has the Republicans holding onto the Senate. PEC has it 79% Dem. Who has been more right in recent history?
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Nov 7, 2016 18:08
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PT6A posted:Does anyone actually not hate Mike Pence? He's the least charismatic person I can possibly imagine, next to Scott Walker. Hes so boring and forgettable that nobody knows or cares who he is on the national stage. He's way overshadowed by Trump.
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Nov 7, 2016 18:09
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Mr. Belding posted:What I really want when all of this is said and done is something like this. Hillary wins. The GOP continues to collapse. The Democrats become the intellectual and spiritual successors to Dwight Eisenhower. The new challenge comes from a legitimate leftist democratic socialist party. By 2024 the election is a business friendly centrist Democrat duking it out with a clone of Jeremy Corbyn made by the newly leftist, post-purge FBI using a stolen saliva sample. Would cloned Corbyn be considered a natural-born citizen? What is the bigger issue going forward: that or EC reform?
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Nov 7, 2016 18:09
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cant cook creole bream posted:Running a campaign is kind of a stressful job. I don't think they get a lot of chances to rehearse those speeches either. I don't think he practices his speeches, considering his sentences have a nasty habit of consisting of three or more completely unrelated and nonsensical topics. If that's what a practiced speech looks like, I can only loving imagine what he'd be like without practice.
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Nov 7, 2016 18:11
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Lightning Knight posted:I'm super late, but since any change at that level to the Electoral College requires an amendment, we might as well get rid of it at the stage where we'd have enough support to change anything about it. It's a dumb, anti-voter system. Half of this country is about to vote for Donald Trump
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Nov 7, 2016 18:11
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https://twitter.com/RaleighReporter/status/795669824135430145
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Nov 7, 2016 18:11
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Agreed. I was just disputing the people saying that NV-Sen is a lock because of Clinton's early votes. 2: Yes, but not in a way that favors the GOP usually, especially when NV hispanics turn out, which they are. 3: See above 4: In general yes. But again the polling data seems to show that Masto is performing strongly enough that she'll win if Hillary does.
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Nov 7, 2016 18:13
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exploding mummy posted:Half of this country is about to vote for Donald Trump No, 40-something percent of the 60-something percent of people who actually vote are going to. If 50% of the country were voting for Trump, he'd win.
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Nov 7, 2016 18:12
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This election would benefit from John Madden commentary. "If he doesn't get over 270 electoral votes, I don't see how he can win."
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Nov 7, 2016 18:13
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If only those polling stations hadn't been reduced this year.
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Nov 7, 2016 18:13
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PT6A posted:Does anyone actually not hate Mike Pence? He's the least charismatic person I can possibly imagine, next to Scott Walker. He's like an uncharismatic unfunny version of Steve Carell. Or that Eagle from the Muppets.
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Nov 7, 2016 18:14
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What a shock, when you cut down early voting centers from 16 to 1 in primarily black communities, they get disenfranchised. I loving hate Republicans.
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Nov 7, 2016 18:13
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PT6A posted:Does anyone actually not hate Mike Pence? He's the least charismatic person I can possibly imagine, next to Scott Walker. Evangelicals love him.
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Nov 7, 2016 18:13
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Spiffster posted:Dear lord its now 45% chance wise for senate to be retaken by Dems. I am NOT going to make it through at this rate. If the Wang is wrong, the country won't last long.
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Nov 7, 2016 18:14
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Donald Trump guy on public radio: "I hope the Florida election will be fair. We have an election office controlled by a Republican candidate, so we have to trust but verify our system." He also claimed to have seen voter fraud in person in the northeast but in Republican Florida it doesn't happen, but it's important for you to monitor your polling place.
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Nov 7, 2016 18:15
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Majorian posted:Usually a good policy, in my book, but this time around, I think one can afford to be a little more dismissive of 538. Their model has budget too much for catastrophic polling errors in Trump's favor, and I'm not sure that makes sense at this point. Yes, I am aggregating aggregators. It's all the rage in statistics right now.
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Nov 7, 2016 18:17
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