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JawKnee posted:Legitimately interested in your answer It was his main talking point against multiple States in the region for the entirety of the campaign? I guess you want me to vote for someone who just discusses the issue when the randomly come into the State at the last second because their polling shows them losing.
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Nov 9, 2016 22:46
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| # ? Jun 6, 2024 00:04 |
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So I'm a political scientist and sociologist. I've been trained in a wide amount of disciplines with a focus on people and power. I'm intellectually curious and a lifelong learner. I'm not saying this to toot my own horn, but to establish my credentials. I know much about and can rapidly learn about political power and how large groups of people act. I have come to the conclusion that I have to rapidly unlearn much of what I know. Last night I went through what Prester Jane would call narrative dysphoria as I struggled to come to terms with what happened. Thankfully it was rather short. It's part of having a scientific mind and not personally and immediately being existentially threatened by a Trump administration unless he decides to start a war for no reason. I'm white, I'm male, I'm mostly straight and prefer women, I'm healthy and educated. I feel badly for those who aren't because holy poo poo it's going to be a bad time for you all and until the powers that be realize and give a poo poo about the environment that is on a downward decline we won't be able to deal with oncoming problems. I was absolutely stunned by the results. I thought Hillary had it in the bag and it turns out she doesn't. So why is that? Beyond massive rigging of the election These are my takeaways in the last twenty-four hours. Hot takes to be sure, but educated ones: 1. The world is trending towards populism and America was just as vulnerable if not more vulnerable than before. If it didn't happen this year it was probably going to happen in 2020 or 2024. You're seeing it in Europe. You saw it in the Middle East. Now you've seen it in America. It's part of an ongoing trend. I believe that we're entering a new era of politics. 2. Russia successfully managed to put the thumb on the scale of our election. However as a result of this tensions are simmering down. Imagine a huge wall and you need to climb over it. The comparison isn't ironic, just apt. Imagine if you will that you need to get past a wall. It's too high to climb over without tools. The ground is too hard to tunnel under. It's too thick to dig or blast through. However, the wall doesn't cover the entirety of where you want to go. An easier, less defended wall is just to your left. It's hard to climb over, even tricky, but you manage and you walk on by. The unscalable wall is our military. Russia was never going to beat us. It is laughable to think about. The US has a military that dwarfs nations below it by a hilarious margin. We can project power while Russia only really has antiquated missile systems. If it went nuclear everyone loses. If a war went hot with Russia and it didn't go nuclear Russia loses. Russia can't afford a new cold war. Its only chance to pull itself up is to attack the US in a way that has never been done before. They attacked our election. And it worked. Like Abraham Lincoln once said: "I destroy my enemies by making them friends." Make no mistake. We have made friends with them, or at least we are on track for a normalization of relations. While I don't like the precedent that it sets, it does create peaceful relations with a potent regional power while Hillary was looking to amp up tension with them. 3. It's the economy, stupid. No really. Trump lead a campaign that appealed to a populist revamping of the economy. It was also wrapped up in racism and sexism. The people who are suffering in this country are both the very poor and the middle class. The wages of the poor were sloooooowly rising and unemployment is down. Great! However the wages of the middle class are largely stagnating and falling. People were seriously worried about their jobs for a long time and the current economic model isn't serving them. When workers in China working 18 hour days in sweatshop conditions will do your job for one tenth the pay is globalism really working for you? I think that this is a serious reactionary movement against globalism. I mean, think about it. Was HRC going to approve TPP? Of course she was. Maybe with some tweaks but it was going to get passed. I remember back a decade or so ago when Ohio was about to lose tens of thousands of jobs to China because the tire manufacturers could make more money in China. Obama put a stop to that. Tears of joy all around, right? But that was just a single event in a long, long chain of manufacturing getting outsourced. Also those manufacturing jobs that were never coming back? They're coming back. And they will eventually come back. When it's cheaper and easier to produce them locally through robotics. The work and labor are going to be needed, but largely those jobs aren't coming back. End of story. Period. It just costs too much. And those American corporations that are producing overseas like Apple? You think Trump is going to levy a 35% tax on whatever new product they crap out? Are you kidding me? Maybe he can pull it off for non-American companies. Maybe. MAYBE. Doubt it. The rust belt may be a bit less rusty in a few years, but not by much if at all. 4. Trump isn't going to be able to pass laws. At least not the laws he wants. End of story. Why? Well it's the beauty of our democracy that the president can't introduce laws. The current republican establishment hasn't changed overmuch and still largely is bought and paid for. They also hate his rear end. He can stamp his feet all he wants but without congress' help he won't be able to get any of his platforms passed. Furthermore the democrats can still filibuster. Until that gets done in it's still a 4-4 supreme court and will probably stay that way until someone loving dies. Imagine a large amount of lower court decisions until someone dies. If there's anything the dems have learned from the republicans is that while you can't create political change, you can sure halt it by being obstructionist. At best he'll be able to roll back executive action and gut already existing federal institutions. Bad, but not as bad as it could be. He can also push for executive actions as well. The dems might actually push back. You never know. 5. Trump is going to have a magnifying glass on him for four years. All of his secrets are going to come out. He's probably going to be a scandal plagued mess of a president. Unless he can't actually "Make America Great Again", whatever the gently caress that means, is that the people who backed him years ago will reject him. He has impossibly large shoes to fill because he has promised people everything, often conflicting. Maybe people will be placated if he raises wages by driving away predatory trade agreements and by deporting illegal labor, but he's going to run into serious problems by not being able to fulfill basic promises. 6. Identity politics are a loser if that's what you lead with. See three. They'll motivate some people to vote, but it's the economy, stupid. It's a bit reductionist, but if you take a look at Maslow's Hierarchy of needs it goes like this from most to least important: Physiological (Food and shelter) Safety Love/Belonging Esteem Self-Actualization Where do identity politics land on this scale? Maybe safety. Maybe. If you're trans not getting the poo poo kicked out of you or killed is the second most important on this scale. Further up the chain (or down in this case) are needs that align with identity politics. In the end the fight over bathrooms backfired on the democrats because how stupid it was cut both ways. Trans people aren't like gay people. Odds are you know a few gay people and maybe work with some. Your brother or sister can be gay. It's a statistically significant portion of the population. Trans people are where gay people were on the likability scales in the 1990's or before. Maybe the 2000's. When they couldn't persecute gay people they persecuted trans people and you know what? They were easier targets. It sucks, but it worked. 7. I've seen analogies to the rise of fascism in the 30's. It's actually quite apt. We just went through "the great recession" which was definitely a depression as it met the criteria for that. However it wasn't the great depression. We weren't in the middle of the dust bowl. We didn't have millions of rabbis eating our crops because they could largely survive without water. We didn't have bankers jumping to their deaths out the window. We didn't have enormous bread lines. It wasn't as bad. It was bad. Not as bad. I wasn't saving up my bacon grease to remember the taste. So there was a reaction we've seen before. The rise of populism. You've seen it in almost every democratic nation. The ones that didn't go right went left. Populism all around. I think it's some sort of mass response to a perceived existential economic threat. That threat was real. Are we gearing up for the 1940's again? Probably not. Fascism is on the rise, but authoritarianism and fascism are not the same thing. Russia is going to be ascendant again but we're probably going to have good relations with them. China? It's a bubble that may at any day pop as many, many billions of dollars are fleeing their country to buy up everything . The Europeans don't look like they're going to be able to get their poo poo together as jobs from the wealthier western nations have been fleeing east while Muslim refugees are flooding their countries. They're probably pretty hosed in the long term if the Eurozone doesn't fix their problems with jobs fleeing countries while dealing with refugees. Loss of jobs and easily identifiable foreign people is a double whammy. Because if you think the US is racist, go to Europe. They're hashing out problems we addressed back in the 70's and 80's. In the end World War Two was largely caused by World War One. World War One was largely caused by a number of factors that don't exist anymore. Is there a widespread feeling that war is a fun adventure? That you should stand up for King and Country? That it's revitalizing to the nation to sometimes kill your fellow man? No. That sort of idea died in human wave attacks mowed down by machine guns or men who were pounded so heavily by heavy guns that they never saw the enemy. It ended when people figured out that war wasn't fun anymore. That honor and duty aren't worth anything when you can't spit into the face of your adversary, but instead your lungs and skin and eyes are scalded by mustard gas. The German people, pushed beyond limits they never knew they had and the social structure of Europe falling apart and with crowns rolling in the gutter gave rise to World War Two because the Germans were forced to eat poo poo for twenty years for being the losers of a conflict. We're still not a multi-polar world anymore. The US is still on top. China and against all odds Russia will be ascendant if they can keep their poo poo together, but that's it. There will be no Islamic Caliphate. The calculus of power hasn't changed so much that the US will tolerate any new world superpower forming. Especially not in places like the middle east. 8. Finally, almost a footnote, but it's what shocked us so badly, we need to rethink how we poll people. Only the pollsters that predicted Brexit got it right and they got it right because they bring the polls to peoples' smartphones. People just don't pick up the phone anymore enough to have accurate results. Call screened. - In closing the Left can push back. In fact if Hillary was for tariffs on trade and pulling away completely from the TPP she probably would've won even if she was full of poo poo. She won the popular vote after all, but she counted too much on the rust belt. It's the economy, stupid. The democrats are going to have to clean some rust off that rust belt. We have to take care of our own before we can push our social issues again. We can't just expect these people to vote D reliably anymore. We actually have to solve their problems. Ice Phisherman fucked around with this message at 22:49 on Nov 9, 2016 |
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Nov 9, 2016 22:46
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treu posted:Pretty sure in 2 years when the midterm election comes up. Was this some sort of trick question? Their blood is on your hands. I'm sure in 2 years they'll come hopping right back to life when you try to vote the Repubs out.
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Nov 9, 2016 22:47
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Who What Now posted:Hahaha, you literally stopped reading that post at the word "uneducated". Still doesn't help his response since the word "wasn't" came before "uneducated." Yet we're the ones that can't read.
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Nov 9, 2016 22:47
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PhazonLink posted:You assume they care. Yeah, I saw a lot of ardent, progressive, and generally informed Bernie supporters in my circles go nuts when Clinton picked Kaine because most of them thought it should have been Booker. The less informed ones also did that but tacked on that it was even more proof Clinton was an open racist.
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Nov 9, 2016 22:48
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Reading the crying in this thread is like reading gun forums after Obama won the election twice. The level of sheer stupidity is staggering.
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Nov 9, 2016 22:49
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Crowsbeak posted:8 million people who voted in 12 didn't vote in this election. This wasn't old Obama voters going Trump this was them sitting out. are you perhaps answering a different question? Here's the one I posted: JawKnee posted:Why do you believe Trump - given his personal enrichment as a product of that system - will suddenly turn on it?
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Nov 9, 2016 22:49
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So, as a non-american, this was fascinating to see and really underscored the most worrying thing from this election (aside from a Trump presidency) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3GUvmvsKZII&t=516s I think maybe this comment holds a lot of core truth about where this election result comes from. A population angry enough to elect Trump. Which leaves me with two thoughts: 1. Identify the source of that anger and you've identified the reason for the loss and the central issue to concentrate on going forwards. 2. This kind of blind anger is the most scary thing about this election. That kind of anger is - and I am not making GBS threads you at all - really the only realistic way a proper constitutional monarchy can go the way of the Weimar republic. And while I've previously held and still hope that the US is too robust a democracy for that, I still find the thought of all that blind anger given focus through a strongman narcissist the real reason for concern this election.
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Nov 9, 2016 22:48
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MechaX posted:So in all of this craziness, I just have one question: A very warped 1950's. African-Americans were segregated, women largely didn't work, there were nefarious foreign enemies to blame things on, America had a manufacturing industry, and casual racism and sexism was perfectly acceptable.
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Nov 9, 2016 22:48
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Is there any popular support at all for the poo poo Pence wants to gut that can get the GOP to back off? Protests? Recall elections?
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Nov 9, 2016 22:49
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treu posted:The question was "When do you think the next time you get to cast a ballot is? Do you understand what can happen between now and then?" Sure if you ignore the contexts of your own posts: treu posted:If he doesn't then he doesn't get the next ballot cast for him. Again you people seem to not Who What Now posted:When do you think the next time you get to cast a ballot is? Do you understand what can happen between now and then? And since your one big deal is treaties apparently, the house does poo poo and the senator you might have voted for won't be up in 2. You don't understand the system.
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Nov 9, 2016 22:49
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At this point despite abhorring the concept the only I thing I think is a hopeful philosophy is accelerationism.
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Nov 9, 2016 22:49
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OWLS! posted:Reading the crying in this thread is like reading gun forums after Obama won the election twice. The fear that Obama was going to take away guns from gun owners was dumb. The fear that Trump is going to take away health insurance from millions of Americans is not, since that's a thing that will almost certainly happen in three months or so.
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Nov 9, 2016 22:49
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Pollyanna posted:Is there any popular support at all for the poo poo Pence wants to gut that can get the GOP to back off? Protests? Recall elections? A crushing 2018 defeat. So no, not really. Blue states might not repeal this stuff when the SC strikes it down but that's not a sure thing.
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Nov 9, 2016 22:51
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PKJC posted:Their blood is on your hands. I'm sure in 2 years they'll come hopping right back to life when you try to vote the Repubs out. No, fairly sure that's blood on their hands. Or whoever didn't get them to a support group fast enough. Or maybe the support group sucked. Or hey, maybe suicide is a hosed up thing, and people do it for a variety of reasons, and you can't save everybody.
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Nov 9, 2016 22:50
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Ornamented Death posted:Still doesn't help his response since the word "wasn't" came before "uneducated." Yet we're the ones that can't read. He honed right in on that one word and then had to namedrop the Very Smart And Serious things he reads.
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Nov 9, 2016 22:51
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GreyjoyBastard posted:maybe we'll get to hang out more in the future now that our countries will carve up the Pacific and SE Asia between us as cordial imperial powers deserve. That's the real takeaway here that I don't think people have realized. The election of Trump and the consequent promotion of his xenophobic, isolationist, anti-globalist policies in the world's only hyperpower pretty much cements the final destruction of the post-Cold-War order. Since the fall of the communist bloc, the general thesis has still been a variant of the original post-war order: some regional power politicking, but at least some shared faith and legitimacy in some form of global governance through the United Nations, ICC, COP, and other international coalitions/organizations, to the point that even in his worst days, Dubya had to make a case to the UNSC to invade Iraq. And while that order has frayed a bit, over the past decade, starting with Dubya's abandoning the UNSC to invade Iraq anyway, and the more recent abandonment of multilateral talks/international governing bodies as we've seen in Syria, Brexit, and in the South China Sea, it has still held. For example, the Iranian nuclear deal, Cuban rapprochement and Paris agreements (rip) still fundamentally built on top of a framework of international coalition building and multilateral action. That principle of international cooperation that has formed the backbone of the world order since the Atlantic Charter is now completely dead. Take Trump's words from his victory speech to heart: quote:I want to tell the world community that while we will always put America’s interests first, we will always deal fairly with everyone – all people and all other nations. Outright stating that America will openly take a "gently caress you got mine" approach to foreign affairs means that America can no longer be trusted to uphold the international system. If an international agreement is not to America's advantage, consider it gone. Trump has consistently campaigned on this point, so I fully expect it to bear out in practice. The world is looking down the barrel at a rebirth of regional factionalism, multi polarity, and the final breakdown of international cooperation, not unlike the conditions at the end of the 19th century. With other future events looking to move in the same direction (Merkel's weakening grip on the German polity, France probably electing Marine Le Pen, and of course regional powers China, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Russia willingly playing the same game they always have) the world is about to become a very ugly, very dangerous place. ComradeCosmobot fucked around with this message at 22:55 on Nov 9, 2016 |
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Nov 9, 2016 22:51
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Okay so who are we getting or Chairman of the Federal Reserve?
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Nov 9, 2016 22:52
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OWLS! posted:Reading the crying in this thread is like reading gun forums after Obama won the election twice. Then stop posting.
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Nov 9, 2016 22:51
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treu posted:It was his main talking point against multiple States in the region for the entirety of the campaign? I guess you want me to vote for someone who just discusses the issue when the randomly come into the State at the last second because their polling shows them losing. I'm not American, so to be honest it doesn't really matter to me whom you vote for, but your reasoning intrigues me. Do you also believe Trump and the Republicans will build a wall across the Mexican border? Does the seemingly large amount of lies Trump has spoken in public give you cause to consider the soundness, validity, or in fact truth of his claims? I mean, on the one hand your evidence that he will do this is that he has said he would - but he so far has not halted operations of his that rely on the mechanisms that he will supposedly dismantle - do his previous actions not concern you? The previous actions of the party (ie: under Reagan)?
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Nov 9, 2016 22:52
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Ornamented Death posted:The fear that Obama was going to take away guns from gun owners was dumb. The fear that Trump is going to take away health insurance from millions of Americans is not, since that's a thing that will almost certainly happen in three months or so. Obamacare =/= Insurance. Whatever plan we get, it'll probably be lovely, but in my scientific experience, bet you that the amount of people screwed over probably won't change in any significant way.
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Nov 9, 2016 22:52
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Lightning Knight posted:A crushing 2018 defeat. Getting pretty deep into the Bargaining phase here. 
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Nov 9, 2016 22:52
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Trabisnikof posted:Sure if you ignore the contexts of your own posts: Debbie Stabenow is up for election in 2018 and so are House representatives. What is your point again?
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Nov 9, 2016 22:52
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Doctor Butts posted:Then stop posting.  ps. gently caress Trump
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Nov 9, 2016 22:53
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OWLS! posted:Reading the crying in this thread is like reading gun forums after Obama won the election twice. Good god, please kindly shut the gently caress up.
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Nov 9, 2016 22:52
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I absolutely could see Trump demanding that we build an actual wall.
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Nov 9, 2016 22:52
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JawKnee posted:are you perhaps answering a different question? Here's the one I posted: I don't but I know Hillary won't.
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Nov 9, 2016 22:53
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Pollyanna posted:Getting pretty deep into the Bargaining phase here. I've not once been hyperbolic about how utterly hosed we are. ComradeCosmobot posted:That's the real takeaway here that I don't think people have realized. The election of Trump and the consequent promotion of his xenophobic, isolationist, anti-globalist policies in the world's only hyperpower pretty much cements the final destruction of the post-Cold-War order. Somewhere The Iron Rose plots her workplace shooting in tranquil fury.
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Nov 9, 2016 22:54
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OWLS! posted:Obamacare =/= Insurance. Whatever plan we get, it'll probably be lovely, but in my scientific experience, bet you that the amount of people screwed over probably won't change in any significant way. This assumes that the Republicans will be as quick to pass the "replace" part of their "repeal and replace" plan as they are to knock out the "repeal." I do not think that will be the case, in which case people getting insurance through Obamacare, plus people with pre-existing conditions that will no longer be guaranteed coverage, will get screwed over.
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Nov 9, 2016 22:56
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treu posted:Debbie Stabenow is up for election in 2018 and so are House representatives. What is your point again? You voted for Trump based on your concerns about treaties supposedly. But you also claim that if you don't like what you see, he won't get your vote next time. That's in 4 years. Not 2. The House doesn't vote on treaties so that won't help stop it if you don't like Trump's treaties.
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Nov 9, 2016 22:55
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OWLS! posted:Whatever plan we get Why do you think they will replace Obamacare with anything?
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Nov 9, 2016 22:56
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JawKnee posted:I'm not American, so to be honest it doesn't really matter to me whom you vote for, but your reasoning intrigues me. Do you also believe Trump and the Republicans will build a wall across the Mexican border? Does the seemingly large amount of lies Trump has spoken in public give you cause to consider the soundness, validity, or in fact truth of his claims? Your question could be summed up as "Do you believe anything that either political party says?" The answer is no. A politician lies all the time, doesn't matter which side of the aisle they are on. Maybe they don't lie but don't even attempt to accomplish a promise they propose. I do my own research to find out what is the best option for me. If their actions that they have proposed are not fulfilled I re-evaluate my expectations or decide if my vote will continue to go to them.
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Nov 9, 2016 22:56
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OWLS! posted:Obamacare =/= Insurance. Whatever plan we get, it'll probably be lovely, but in my scientific experience, bet you that the amount of people screwed over probably won't change in any significant way. Assuming that's true, any Republican plan would transfer the burden, that is, the people who are screwed over, from people who are more able to afford it to people who are less able to afford it. The net suffering is going to go up.
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Nov 9, 2016 22:56
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Crowsbeak posted:I don't but I know Hillary won't. given that you functionally have the same outcome then, do you not move on to other deciding factors?
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Nov 9, 2016 22:56
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treu posted:Your question could be summed up as "Do you believe anything that either political party says?" The answer is no. "Politicians lie all the time but I totally believed Trump when he said he'd end NAFTA."
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Nov 9, 2016 22:58
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JawKnee posted:Why do you think they will replace Obamacare with anything? Call it a hutch. Back in reality any measure to repeal will be filibustered to gently caress and back by the Dems. And if it isn't, then your party really has abandoned the gently caress out of you. Oh wait what was that, weren't the Dems discussing getting rid of the filibuster? This is a dumb idea and this is exactly why the filibuster needs to stay. He can't exactly just executive order everything away, you know. He can try, but with a bit of luck we'll get some reduction of presidential powers and things will be back to what they should be.
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Nov 9, 2016 22:58
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treu posted:Your question could be summed up as "Do you believe anything that either political party says?" The answer is no. In the future, just saying "gently caress you, got mine" saves a lot of time.
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Nov 9, 2016 22:58
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Ornamented Death posted:"Politicians lie all the time but I totally believed Trump when he said he'd end NAFTA." Difference between believing and giving the opportunity to do so, pal.
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Nov 9, 2016 22:59
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treu posted:Your question could be summed up as "Do you believe anything that either political party says?" The answer is no. quote:I do my own research to find out what is the best option for me.
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Nov 9, 2016 22:58
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Ice Phisherman posted:In closing the Left can push back. In fact if Hillary was for tariffs on trade and pulling away completely from the TPP she probably would've won even if she was full of poo poo. She won the popular vote after all, but she counted too much on the rust belt. It's the economy, stupid. The democrats are going to have to clean some rust off that rust belt. We have to take care of our own before we can push our social issues again. We can't just expect these people to vote D reliably anymore. We actually have to solve their problems. This is a good post and I enjoyed reading it.
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Nov 9, 2016 22:58
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