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There are so many times players get hot like this to start out a season and then they average out over the course of a season that there's probably a phrase for it.
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Nov 14, 2016 19:49
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As a Raptors fan I'm as cautiously optimistic as anyone else, but DeRozan looks to have genuinely tweaked the details of his game and there are other factors as well; the staff/players are working hard to make sure he gets to the spots on the floor he's murderous from, some the supporting cast like Ross are taking some of the heat off of him by being threats themselves, and Casey is finally staggering DeRozan & Lowry's minutes to ensure one of them is on the floor at all times so DeMar gets to roast opposing bench players more often. Do I think he will average 34PPG on 52% shooting for the season? I do not. But I think it'll be closer to 30 than 25, and I think it'll be closer to 50% than 45%.
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Nov 14, 2016 20:03
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Nissin Cup Nudist posted:Wasn't Antoine Walker actually pretty good? "Pretty good" is probably accurate for Antoine Walker, but also a pretty huge disappointment for a #1 pick.
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Nov 14, 2016 20:12
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As a Raptors fan I am fatalistically pessimistic and certain this is a long con by the cosmos to get me super excited about the team's chances as a contender only to see them lose in the first round when Demar shoots 20% on 30 FGA. That said, it's real fun to watch so I'm just going to go with it.
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Nov 14, 2016 20:15
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BWV posted:As a Raptors fan I am fatalistically pessimistic and certain this is a long con by the cosmos to get me super excited about the team's chances as a contender only to see them lose in the first round when Demar shoots 20% on 30 FGA. Don't get excited until Kyle Lowry can hit a 3.
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Nov 14, 2016 20:18
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I've only seen highlights of Raptors games but everything looks really weird stats-wise. Lowry, Joseph, Pat Pat and Carroll are all having the worst seasons they've had in years. DeRozan is getting to the rim half as much as he did last season, is shooting worse at the rim, shooting more long 2s at a much higher FG%, and shooting much worse from 3 (albeit on fewer attempts)
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Nov 14, 2016 20:21
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A good article (!) from Bleacher Report on Popovich: http://thelab.bleacherreport.com/gregg-popovich-spurs-coach-first-season/?utm_source=cnn.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=editorial
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Nov 14, 2016 20:24
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Nissin Cup Nudist posted:Wasn't Antoine Walker actually pretty good? He was fine but way less good than he thought he was, which is where most of his issues came from He had his moments, especially if his shot was falling. His coach for most of his time with the Celtics gave him the greenest of green lights which was sometimes a blessing and sometimes a curse MourningView fucked around with this message at 20:32 on Nov 14, 2016 |
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Nov 14, 2016 20:28
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Cool Buff Man posted:I think you guys are really putting entirely too much stock into the words of Brian Scalabrine White Mamba trollin'. https://twitter.com/rodger_sherman/status/798229402953785344
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Nov 14, 2016 20:29
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Redgrendel2001 posted:White Mamba trollin'. This is almost exactly what I was picturing. Thank you
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Nov 14, 2016 20:35
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Oh you mean the Warriors aren't trading Klay Thompson to the Celtics for literally nothing? Color me surprised.
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Nov 14, 2016 20:35
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what did nostradamus say about about a potential corey brewer trade?
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Nov 14, 2016 20:36
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chunkles posted:This is their magnum opus right here: http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/andrew-wiggins-lebron-james/ Holy poo poo this dude continues to poo poo on Wiggins. He wrote this two days before Wiggins drops 47. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-53-best-franchise-players-in-the-nba-2016-17-edition/ TL;DR - quote:47 B. Ingram LAL 19 SF -0.2 C. Bosh A. Wiggins 21.3 So let me get this straight, Brandon Ingram's worst-case scenario is A. Wiggins. Yuh huh.
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Nov 14, 2016 20:43
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538 heh ...
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Nov 14, 2016 20:44
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Not sure why it's a surprise that a calculation that looks at stats would be down on Wiggins. He's had 2 somewhat disappointing seasons by the numbers.
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Nov 14, 2016 20:57
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Brandon Ingram's worst case scenario is the #8 scorer and leader in 3 point percentage. Brandon's averaging 6 points a game, btw.
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Nov 14, 2016 21:04
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James Harden joins George Hill in receiving the Western Conference Player of the Week award e: Can we talk about how Russell Westbrook is 1 rebound away from averaging a triple double? Can somebody let him stat-pad one rebound a game please?
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Nov 14, 2016 21:12
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Hashtag Banterzone posted:Not sure why it's a surprise that a calculation that looks at stats would be down on Wiggins. He's had 2 somewhat disappointing seasons by the numbers. I think that's the complaint, if the system is blindly just looking at numbers are saying Wiggins is a total bust (they didn't quite say that, but they certainly talked around it), but if you don't account that a guy was carrying a huge workload on a pretty bad/young team as an indicator he might be better than his pure efficiency stats seems kinda dumb to me. A lot of people who watched him thought he was better than "maybe not as good as James Posey" but 538 seems to really like to use him as a bad example for some reason. Also, in that franchise player thing also uses him as a "worst-case scenario" 6 year projection, but he only has 2 years in the league so I don't know how you can project a player's 6-year curve to be like Wiggins..... Anyway, 538's basketball analysis is pretty dumb overall, is all I'm saying.
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Nov 14, 2016 21:12
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Nissin Cup Nudist posted:Wasn't Antoine Walker actually pretty good?
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Nov 14, 2016 21:15
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chunkles posted:James Harden joins George Hill in receiving the Western Conference Player of the Week award eh, Russ is already leaping over Steven Adams and Sabonis to feast on largely uncontested DREBs that trigger the break. Any more would just be gauche.
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Nov 14, 2016 21:26
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WhyteRyce posted:I assume all NBA GMs hate Ainge, given that he plays the media rumor game hard and appears to overvalue his assets Ainge is very bad with his media leaks but it's no crime to try to get the most for the least in your trades.
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Nov 14, 2016 21:31
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Hashtag Banterzone posted:Not sure why it's a surprise that a calculation that looks at stats would be down on Wiggins. He's had 2 somewhat disappointing seasons by the numbers.
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Nov 14, 2016 21:34
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roundmidnight posted:Don't get excited
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Nov 14, 2016 21:34
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Lockback posted:I think that's the complaint, if the system is blindly just looking at numbers are saying Wiggins is a total bust (they didn't quite say that, but they certainly talked around it), but if you don't account that a guy was carrying a huge workload on a pretty bad/young team as an indicator he might be better than his pure efficiency stats seems kinda dumb to me. A lot of people who watched him thought he was better than "maybe not as good as James Posey" but 538 seems to really like to use him as a bad example for some reason. I think you are right about the CARMELO system being pretty dumb. But I'm also not so sure you can look at Wiggins' stats and project that he's going to be good. He looks like a player that's going to be good, but that's a bit different. Edit: By good I mean All-NBA good like he was projected to be out of college. His stats look like borderline all-star to me. My point is that the eye test suggests he will be better than that. Hashtag Banterzone fucked around with this message at 21:43 on Nov 14, 2016 |
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Nov 14, 2016 21:40
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Wiggins is playing really, really good this year.
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Nov 14, 2016 21:41
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chunkles posted:James Harden joins George Hill in receiving the Western Conference Player of the Week award Russ is a god, but he shot 9-25, 9-26 and 5-16 last week. That's like a .333 shooting percentage. I don't think you get player of the week for that.
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Nov 14, 2016 21:43
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Could the hypothetical team Danny Ainge has traded for beat the hypothetical team Darryl Morey built through free agency?? Winner plays the DeAndre Jordan Mavs.
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Nov 14, 2016 21:48
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predicto posted:Russ is a god, but he shot 9-25, 9-26 and 5-16 last week. That's like a .333 shooting percentage. I don't think you get player of the week for that. He had like 40 free throws Edit I was including last night (when he had 41 points on 21 shots btw)
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Nov 14, 2016 21:48
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kiimo posted:Brandon Ingram's worst case scenario is the #8 scorer and leader in 3 point percentage. Brandon Ingram is what everyone expected Wiggins to be as a rookie, a young guy playing good defense with offensive skills, but not enough assertiveness to showcase himself
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Nov 14, 2016 21:48
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Sheriff posted:Could the hypothetical team Danny Ainge has traded for beat the hypothetical team Darryl Morey built through free agency?? Winner plays the DeAndre Jordan Mavs. Does that mean Horford has to play an evil clone of himself?
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Nov 14, 2016 21:49
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The season is like a month old maybe give it a bit before assuming that Wiggins is actually a good outside shooter now
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Nov 14, 2016 21:50
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MourningView posted:The season is like a month old maybe give it a bit before assuming that Wiggins is actually a good outside shooter now No, DeMar DeRozan is an MVP candidate, Andrew Wiggins is taking The Leap, the Boston Celtics are poo poo, and Joel Embiid would be the best player in the world if he could only play 36 mpg.
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Nov 14, 2016 21:55
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chunkles posted:A good article (!) from Bleacher Report on Popovich: http://thelab.bleacherreport.com/gregg-popovich-spurs-coach-first-season/?utm_source=cnn.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=editorial That was good. I remember it seeming scummy when Pop took over and maybe it was but it was the right move, like, obviously as history bore out. kiimo posted:Brandon Ingram's worst case scenario is the #8 scorer and leader in 3 point percentage. You're doing what you're accusing him of doing.
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Nov 14, 2016 21:58
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roundmidnight posted:No, DeMar DeRozan is an MVP candidate, Andrew Wiggins is taking The Leap, the Boston Celtics are poo poo, and Joel Embiid would be the best player in the world if he could only play 36 mpg. Everything's coming up Toronto.
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Nov 14, 2016 21:59
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Rick posted:You're doing what you're accusing him of doing. I guess. I'd be really surprised if Ingram surpasses Wiggins at any point. But yeah it's early. Towns is a better player than Wiggins (a lot) and hasn't showed it much this season and that will change. But that's a conversation for future me. I say the future is ours if you can count (three point made shots).
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Nov 14, 2016 22:05
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MourningView posted:The season is like a month old maybe give it a bit before assuming that Wiggins is actually a good outside shooter now His stroke was always pretty good with a very high release, and he has the right skillset to create space as well as elevate on his shot. He certainly won't be the, or even one of the, leaders in 3pt % by the end of the season but a lot of people were pretty sure his outside shot was going to catch up to him, and this hot start is a pretty good sign. He's been hitting a lot of really tough shots during this run so either he will regress pretty soon or he's the next Jordan/Kobe. Hashtag Banterzone posted:I think you are right about the CARMELO system being pretty dumb. But I'm also not so sure you can look at Wiggins' stats and project that he's going to be good. He looks like a player that's going to be good, but that's a bit different. That's sort of my complaint about 538's projection of him, as well as most of their projections in general. You look at a guy who has a 30% usage at 20 and you say "hmm, my models says he should be like these other guys who didn't have very good NBA careers despite them never carrying this offensive load. Whelp, its what my data says so I guess I'll go write an article!" Almost any other decently intelligent analyst would hedge on something like that, especially after watching him play. Or try to tweak the model. Or build in thresholds. I'm probably coming off butt-hurt that a fringe NBA site isn't being nice to my pet player, but I'm a data-guy in real life and I get frustrated when other data-guys try to argue their model against reality. And the all-star comment is funny, this morning I did a quick query to try and argue Wiggins deserves some serious all-star attention in this really young season but holy poo poo are a lot of individuals playing really, really well to start the season. I know this happens every year, but this is like a bumper crop of November Superstars.
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Nov 14, 2016 22:09
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kiimo posted:I guess. I'd be really surprised if Ingram surpasses Wiggins at any point. But yeah it's early. Towns is a better player than Wiggins (a lot) and hasn't showed it much this season and that will change. Even after yesterdays wigginsplosion KAT has a higher PER and Winshare that Wiggins, so KAT being better is showing in the stats (though I think Wiggins scoring is more important to the early-season identity). When the defense finally gels and becomes above-average like I think it will, I expect KAT's advanced stats will take off.
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Nov 14, 2016 22:11
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MourningView posted:The season is like a month old maybe give it a bit before assuming that Wiggins is actually a good outside shooter now Yeah He's still on the list with Antoine Walker http://www.basketball-reference.com...45&order_by=pts
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Nov 14, 2016 22:16
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Although the Knicks will probably stay worse than the Nets.
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Nov 14, 2016 22:18
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Was Harrison Barnes the 2nd best signing of the offseason? (Off the top of my head another contender for this is Dwight)
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Nov 14, 2016 22:20
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