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I agree on you assessment on what will happen to incredibly resource stressed countries like India and China. India I think is going to be the first major "Domino" to fall. When Bangladesh floods that's more than a hundred million of refugees that will flood into a country that doesn't have institutions and unity to absorb these refugees. India collapsing is a much more "oh crap" moment than the Middle East and North Africa unraveling because face it that's expected regardless of climate. Especially since India is one of the modern "great powers".
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Nov 14, 2016 23:23
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Radbot posted:I find it absolutely hilarious that people think we'll be able to adapt to this change without society collapsing/changing into something that we wouldn't be familiar with today, tbqh. Trump was just elected because a bunch of the Midwest got sadbrains over Walmart paying less than Ford, do you really think people are going to react rationally to a climate crisis? Yeah, my own feeling is that people are going to become even more irrational and insane when faced with a massive crisis, not suddenly snap out of it and band together to stop it or adapt to it. People are going to retreat even further into magical thinking. There will still be millions of people believing God did it to punish us for our sins and because of gay people or liberals or the government did it or some poo poo. I can guarantee that people are gonna come up with even more insane things than those to latch onto as well. It scares me that no matter what we do to fight climate change, there will still be literally tens of millions of people who not only don't care, but are actively hostile to you and will fight you and work to sabotage you out of spite. Human history is not pleasant and I don't see any reason to believe we can adapt when humanity is faced with an enormous ecological catastrophe, the worst effects we haven't even begun to see yet. I'm skeptical that we could see something as enormous as a global collapse of industrial civilization, at least in the short term, but I'm sure we will see a sharp rise in the number of failed states, regional genocides and wars. As human populations have grown, so have the number of conflicts, and each century has generally been more bloody than the one that came before it.  Now imagine what the 21st century will look like. I'm sure it will be more bloody than the 20th, to say the least. We still have over 80 years to top it. It's astonishing to me that when my parents were children, the planet only had around 2.5 billion people on it. In the short time until today, roughly another 5 billion have been added to the mix and half of the world's wildlife has been wiped out. It's completely stunning to me. The world was already violent enough without a planet-wide eco-catastrophe looming overhead.
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Nov 14, 2016 23:24
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Kenzie posted:The world was already violent enough without a planet-wide eco-catastrophe looming overhead. Yeah, this. Like, what the gently caress am I "saving up for my 60s" for if there's no way I'm bringing kids into this world and the world's gonna suck by then anyway? xD
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Nov 14, 2016 23:38
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cosmicprank posted:Yeah, this. Like, what the gently caress am I "saving up for my 60s" for if there's no way I'm bringing kids into this world and the world's gonna suck by then anyway? xD You never know, the vicissitudes of climate change might be such that your local world benefits dramatically. It's going to be worse, overall, but in the actual details there will be bright new spots of vibrant wealth and culture. That said, it's unlikely that traditional mechanisms of middle class saving are going to be the way to build assets to take advantage of the new situation.
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Nov 14, 2016 23:45
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TildeATH posted:I've meaningfully engaged with your critique, so maybe you could do the same for me. What is your 20 year prediction for the two most populous nations on Earth: India and China? Do you think they will be able to enact meaningful climate reform or do you think they'll be pressured into scrapping those measures in order to appease the political demands of their respective populations? Maybe? If the destabilizing force can be clearly identified as climate change it might even increase the resolve to pursue climate change mitigation strategies.This probably only works if the west is on board and willing to share some of the costs, so hopefully this doesn't come up over the next 4-8 years! Of course I can't predict the future any better than you can. I will admit that the Chinese public's committment to fighting climate change doesn't look that deep:  Jack2142 posted:I agree on you assessment on what will happen to incredibly resource stressed countries like India and China. India I think is going to be the first major "Domino" to fall. When Bangladesh floods that's more than a hundred million of refugees that will flood into a country that doesn't have institutions and unity to absorb these refugees. Anything flooding-related will (hopefully!) take more than a few years to play out. Assuming we're not in a feedback-dominated regime when it happens, emission reductions now are still helpful in terms of buying future govts a little more time to respond to the crisis. I feel a bit like Prof. Pangloss. edit: Kenzie posted:Yeah, my own feeling is that people are going to become even more irrational and insane when faced with a massive crisis, not suddenly snap out of it and band together to stop it or adapt to it. Refining my point, if the crises can be linked to climate change then it will provide an unprecedented opportunity for the global community to justifiably stick it to the US. They might be very eager for the opportunity. Nocturtle fucked around with this message at 23:51 on Nov 14, 2016 |
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Nov 14, 2016 23:47
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TildeATH posted:I've said all along in this thread that the US is in a very good position given its food surplus, relatively low population density and strong government. Short of a nuclear war, we're going to keep chugging along. But as pressure is exerted on less stable (food, political and climate-wise) countries, they will fail, and in their failures, they will no longer be expected to follow any climate treaties. Who knows, maybe a simultaneously flooded and desertified India will become super green, I don't know, no one knows, but that unpredictability militates against long-term political approaches given the current system. Maybe the problem is that I'm just fundamentally optimistic, but it doesn't seem reasonable to write off political solutions on the basis that they might fail two decades in the future. Not to mention that an economically devastated India or China will no longer be a major contributor to global emissions, so I'm less concerned with their ability to follow through with international agreements in the far future and more concerned with their ability to reduce emissions over the short term. quote:What is your 20 year prediction for the two most populous nations on Earth: India and China? Do you think they will be able to enact meaningful climate reform or do you think they'll be pressured into scrapping those measures in order to appease the political demands of their respective populations? I don't think I can make any kind of general statement here. A lot of meaningful climate measures are hard to step back from, and once they're underway there's no incentive for backing off. If China goes forward with its focus on nuclear power generation, for example, it's never going to make economic sense to scrap working reactors and go back to coal or other dirty methods. Even if they then choose to expand their capacity with cheaper methods like natural gas farther in the future, it's still better to have those reactors in addition to whatever dirty plants they build. We haven't reached a point where anyone is willing to take an economic hit as part of a long term mitigation plan, so I can't think of any particular measures off of the top of my head that I'd expect India or China to pull away from if they start circling the drain. They might not continue to adhere to whatever climate agreements are in effect at the time, but reducing emissions for a while is still better than not doing it at all. Paradoxish fucked around with this message at 23:54 on Nov 14, 2016 |
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Nov 14, 2016 23:51
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Where does the thought that "first worlders will be fine" come from? Have any of you ever been to the hills of WV? Ever checked out the Texas border, away from populated areas? The NM rez? America is already totally fine with letting its citizens die of poverty, malnutrition, drug addiction, and general malaise. Why wouldn't this trend accelerate under the spectre of a looming climate crisis?
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Nov 15, 2016 00:16
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Paradoxish posted:Maybe the problem is that I'm just fundamentally optimistic NICE MELTDOWN No, I know, I am definitely more cynical about the effects, but I can't predict the future. My assumption is that gross emissions might go down but knock-on effects from all the instability will make up for it elsewhere in the system. I shouldn't be all "I know and you're dumb for thinking otherwise" because I don't know all this for sure, it's just based on historical responses to pressures like these. Maybe we've really moved beyond history, and maybe some real disasters really will make us rethink things. I'd prefer that. All my best poo poo is here. But I'm not spending an ounce of energy on it. I might be wrong, and I can acknowledge that I might be wrong, but all the preponderance of evidence is on the side of cynicism. And I felt that way before we elected Trump.
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Nov 15, 2016 00:18
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TildeATH posted:NICE MELTDOWN For what it's worth, I actually don't think we're in major disagreement on anything. Most of the "optimistic" posts I make in this thread are directed squarely at the people posting here, who I assume are mostly middle class white dudes in first world countries. No one in that position should be despondent, because anyone with an okay life right now is probably still going to have an okay life a few decades in the future, barring some real catastrophic poo poo going down. There's just an awful long way to fall before we're at the point that life in a developed nation won't actually be worth living. I'm reasonably sure that the developing world is hosed, though.
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Nov 15, 2016 00:31
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Could you geoengineer global cooling with nuclear bombs? I realise this is an incredibly stupid question, but kind of want to know the answer anyway.
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Nov 15, 2016 00:45
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vegetables posted:Could you geoengineer global cooling with nuclear bombs? I realise this is an incredibly stupid question, but kind of want to know the answer anyway. Yes, but compared to nuclear bombs, even sulphates would be better, because at least those aren't goddamn radioactive.
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Nov 15, 2016 00:54
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Radbot posted:Why would China and India take a hit to their GDP to fight ACC when the US is happily flying the "gently caress you" flag and making money hand over fist? because a) people in chinese and indian cities generally want to be able to breathe b) the renewables sector is awesome for job growth and the economy c) it's generally a bad idea to burn coal these days, considering how cheap natural gas is The reason that world carbon emissions are levelling off isn't because of US policy, it's because there's a massive shift in energy infrastructure in developing countries.
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Nov 15, 2016 01:42
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You say "leveling off", I say "continuing to increase despite huge technological advances and deep knowledge of the problem of ACC"
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Nov 15, 2016 01:50
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The Something Awful Forums > Debate and Discussion: You have a constitutional right to be a dumbass > Climate Change: Nice Meltdown
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Nov 15, 2016 01:57
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What are the chances we figure out FTL travel before we're cooked?
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Nov 15, 2016 02:18
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Noap. Best we can do is eek out some missions to mars.
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Nov 15, 2016 02:31
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Nothing we need is in another star system or mars, the belt will provide. Hell, near earth objects will provide. Just need to get a very basic industrial base going on in orbit so we can start building huge structures with locally sourced materials. Little base on the moon firing up mooncrete and moon glass and start building some O'Neil Cylinders. Planets are the absolute dumbest things to live on and clearly we should not be trusted to manage any more of them.
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Nov 15, 2016 02:34
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What was the trigger for this thread to go into full meltdown mode? I thought that "no sea ice" map was just some guy without a degree?
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Nov 15, 2016 02:39
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Arglebargle III posted:What was the trigger for this thread to go into full meltdown mode? I thought that "no sea ice" map was just some guy without a degree? Donald Trump was elected president
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Nov 15, 2016 02:44
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Arglebargle III posted:What was the trigger for this thread to go into full meltdown mode? I thought that "no sea ice" map was just some guy without a degree? Nihilism is a pretty normal response to situations that seen utterly hopeless. Too tired from a long day at work, will write some thoughts on this later.
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Nov 15, 2016 02:49
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Kenzie posted:Donald Trump was elected president Also the House and Senate went R. If not for the Senate the Democrats could have at least played opposition to anything horrible energy policy-wise to keep it from accelerating but now 
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Nov 15, 2016 02:50
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That and Republicans' successful delay of the SCOTUS nomination gives it to ... Donald Trump to decide. Great work.
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Nov 15, 2016 03:02
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Thanks thread for making me so depressed and hopeless we're probably going to cancel our have-a-kid plan.
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Nov 15, 2016 03:18
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Arglebargle III posted:What was the trigger for this thread to go into full meltdown mode? I thought that "no sea ice" map was just some guy without a degree? It looks pretty bad to me but I'm not an expert, maybe others could verify. http://motherboard.vice.com/read/arctic-sea-ice-is-struggling-to-reform-in-record-hot-temperatures https://robertscribbler.com/2016/11/14/for-the-arctic-ocean-above-80-north-its-still-summer-in-november/ http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2016/11/monthly-co-not-under-400-ppm-in-2016.html Kenzie posted:Donald Trump was elected president Also this.
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Nov 15, 2016 03:29
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Baronjutter posted:Thanks thread for making me so depressed and hopeless we're probably going to cancel our have-a-kid plan. Don't you live in Victoria? You should be more worried about earthquakes and a rapidly aging population with driver's licenses.
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Nov 15, 2016 03:32
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I strongly urge you to contact your congressman, if not about this then about Trump's plans to appoint Ebell, Palin, and Hamm. Don't dismiss the idea if you think they won't support you, your congressman wants to be re-elected, if they get enough calls about something they will consider it. I also know of many liberals who believe in climate change but are talking about the future and considering children or already have them, I'm pretty sure they would be panicking way more if they knew their kids were going to die young for something that's getting no discussion, so I don't think this news is as widespread as some of you believe. So I once again urge you to contact far more people about this, specifically about the recent trends in the Arctic and the implications of Trump's energy plan as well as the long-term consequences. If the conversation became more visible especially in regards to how much sooner things will be hosed than previous estimations showed I think it would blow up a lot more than many of you expect.
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Nov 15, 2016 04:16
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I feel like I post this every six months. Fucks Sake. Yeah, poo poo is going to suck in the future. It might suck a whole lot to the extent that it kills you directly, it might only suck so much that you kill yourself, it might just suck a little bit but not enough that you shuffle off. Guess what: that's life kiddos. Sit back, seriously sit back, and ask yourself why you are reacting this way. Is it because you're honestly afraid that the world as you know it is going to end, or is it because this is for the first time challenging the fundamental belief (ingrained from birth in our society) that you are destined for success and a rewarding retirement surrounded by happyness? Because, guess what again, a huge loving chunk of the worlds population is currently experiencing the very circumstances which have you all burning your proverbial wigs about. Right now. Today. And your standard of living is built on that suffering. This is not the first time in history that a significant percentage of humanity will be wiped out by wars, famine, and the wholesale destruction of an ecology. Nor will it be the last. if the research at Gobleki Tepi is correct, we've been doing this to ourselves since we first drunkenly stumbled on the concept of agriculture. Less than a century ago we leveled an entire continent in a pretty loving pointless war, you think the kids in Dresden had a good time? Right now all I'm seeing is a bunch of the richest and most privileged people who have ever lived in the entirety of human history freaking the gently caress out because they sat up and realized they burned their youth playing video games instead of taking advantage of that opportunity, that all of this is going to be taken away from them within their lifetimes, and that there is nothing they can do about it. You aren't scared because the world is ending and several billion people will probably die really painfully, you're scared because your world is threatened and you have no agency to alter that outcome in the slightest. Seriously, there's nothing you can do. You can write all the letters and freak out as much as you want, but a freight train takes a kilometer to stop and we're 200m from the fuckin' cliff. It'll halt eventually but it won't be from the brakes and it won't matter to anyone riding it. So stop talking about how your girlfriend is going to die and oh my god what if my living standards decline. We all die, some of us sooner and some of us later. Come to grips with your own inevitable mortality and enjoy the ride. If you want to get involved with local activism and do what you can to mitigate effects locally, that's great! If you want to enjoy the time you have left at the top of the economic pyramid, travel a lot, and generally enjoy your life, that's great too! Just don't sit there vibrating in fear and uncertainty, because you and everyone you love is going to die. It probably won't even be from climate change, we just all loving die some day. Rime fucked around with this message at 04:29 on Nov 15, 2016 |
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Nov 15, 2016 04:20
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Ugh. I like your posts because I work best under adversity, but God drat it dude there are better messages to give when everyone is freaking out.
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Nov 15, 2016 04:27
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I mean, I kind of spent my whole life not thinking the entire world would end in my lifetime and I'm still trying to cope with the fact that I will probably have to kill myself in a few decades before it gets too bad but okay. I'll accept that's privileged and I wasn't prepared to lose it, and I'm sorry that I'm being very obnoxious in the face of my impending doom. I would still like to encourage people to take action as much as I can because I'm seeing the nihilist attitude so much when we could get a lot more attention if we were as loud as some of the protests against Trump's cabinet choices right now (not that those aren't super important too) and that's very discouraging to me, but whether anyone listens to me or not is their own decision. Bernie Sander's tweets are giving me a little bit of hope even if it's just talk.
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Nov 15, 2016 04:47
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edit: nvm, shitpost
Left-handed lute fucked around with this message at 06:00 on Nov 15, 2016 |
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Nov 15, 2016 05:09
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Just started a monthly donation. https://act.350.org/donate/build/
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Nov 15, 2016 06:09
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yellowyams posted:I've been in borderline hysterics for a while now and it only seems to be getting worse. Please, can people spread this info around, especially to celebrities and people with a lot of followers? Not just the arctic ice thing but the consequences and how the govt won't withstand it. Nobody I've seen is discussing this and I don't think anyone realizes how dire things are right now, if it became part of the conversation maybe we could take more drastic action. This needs a big loving news story to get people motivated. Xeom posted:So it seems like a societal collapse is inevitable within the next decade or two. I always thought I could make it through any situation, but my girlfriend, possibly soon to be wife, is a type 1 diabetic. She can't make it without insulin, and one day I will probably have to watch her die before her time. Stallion Cabana posted:I desperately want to believe you because this thread has sapped my will to live. For all the people coming in here super depressed/begging for solutions (so not just you all), did you read the OP? Because I made the OP specifically to talk about what kind of actions could be done and to try direct the thread towards solutions, not despair. Do I need to have a section near the top about specific things people can do right now? Reminders on when we can expect the biggest impacts (It's going to take longer than one-two decades for the really bad stuff, for example)? More pictures? Edit: Or is this just like a climate version of White Fragility, where extremely privileged people are completely unable to handle certain things? Uranium Phoenix fucked around with this message at 06:54 on Nov 15, 2016 |
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Nov 15, 2016 06:49
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I think mine was totally white fragility but looking at your topic and listening to this has helped sooth this out. I'm gonna put some donations in on 350 and start talking to my family about seeing if we can get some of the stuff your topic suggests dealt with. I was shaken due to Trump Bullshit and a climate skeptic as the head of the EPA but your post makes it clear we were pretty hosed doing nothing anyway and the whole 'we're working on it' wasn't enough. I'll start lurking in this thread more and just work on doing things around here to try and help out where I can.
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Nov 15, 2016 07:09
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yellowyams posted:I strongly urge you to contact your congressman, if not about this then about Trump's plans to appoint Ebell, Palin, and Hamm. Don't dismiss the idea if you think they won't support you, your congressman wants to be re-elected, if they get enough calls about something they will consider it. I also know of many liberals who believe in climate change but are talking about the future and considering children or already have them, I'm pretty sure they would be panicking way more if they knew their kids were going to die young for something that's getting no discussion, so I don't think this news is as widespread as some of you believe. So I once again urge you to contact far more people about this, specifically about the recent trends in the Arctic and the implications of Trump's energy plan as well as the long-term consequences. If the conversation became more visible especially in regards to how much sooner things will be hosed than previous estimations showed I think it would blow up a lot more than many of you expect. In that vein, could Uranium Phoenix or someone else (with permission) turn the OP (plus maybe some additional wisdom we've gathered from this thread, such as the post I'm quoting) into a shareable post on Medium or something similar? I really want to raise awareness but a) this seems too long for a facebook post, b) I don't want to plagiarize, and c) linking to the SA forums is not gonna capture the hearts and minds of the general public, let's be honest.
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Nov 15, 2016 07:51
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cosmicprank posted:No kids here either and I've already done a bit of traveling after a friend suddenly died. Yeah, I had a typical "life is frail" moment and went on a trip to Japan. My only regret is that I should have learned to not talk about it so much, because people are really bad at hiding their jealously of me doing something like that. So, FWIW, do it if you don't mind the judgement. I assume the absolute worst about the future though so I'm trying to have some experiences before I can't anymore (dad died at 39 from a health issue I have as well, amongst other things I could list). I know I probably sound like that stupid American guy from Black Mirror right now however, if we're all in this thread talking about inevitable shittiness, wouldn't it make sense to encourage each other to travel/have fun NOW? Traveling around the world is a thing that needs to end if you give two shits about climate change.
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Nov 15, 2016 07:59
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His Divine Shadow posted:
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Nov 15, 2016 08:06
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I still like to think that the heated atmosphere will expand enough for a bunch of gasses to escape into space and the subsequent reduction in gas pressure will decrease temperatures. I'm never want to know if that is even plausible though. If It is we should still stop burning things and if it isn't the the solar system gets two Venuses for awhile I guess.
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Nov 15, 2016 09:50
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-bah-
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Nov 15, 2016 10:19
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TildeATH posted:No, it's not. Unironically take your meds. You're just wrong. You're in denial. You refuse to see the difference between a 3°C and 6°C climate change, because you would rather wallow in self pity here and now than actually do work and fix things.
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Nov 15, 2016 11:17
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I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!
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Radbot posted:You say "leveling off", I say "continuing to increase despite huge technological advances and deep knowledge of the problem of ACC" What do you think changing global trends looks like, swinging things around within the day? It's blindingly obvious that even if things are a rousing success, you'll first slow down, then stop, then start going in the other direction slowly, then go faster. Given that we're starting to live in a world where we should've done more about climate change earlier, that we're levelling out is an encouraging sign that it's still possible to limit the level of suck we're heading for. suck my woke dick fucked around with this message at 11:36 on Nov 15, 2016 |
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Nov 15, 2016 11:29
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