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Rap Record Hoarder posted:A shutdown of the thermohaline circulation in the north Atlantic due to a massive influx of freshwater, leaving Europe to simultaneously freeze and drown as the rest of the world broils to death and scurries inland to fight over rapidly desertifying farmland. That's not good.
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Nov 18, 2016 03:10
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Rap Record Hoarder posted:A shutdown of the thermohaline circulation in the north Atlantic due to a massive influx of freshwater, leaving Europe to simultaneously freeze and drown as the rest of the world broils to death and scurries inland to fight over rapidly desertifying farmland. That's right, the Atlantic Conveyer could shut down. England is north of Green Bay, it could suddenly feel like it if the Atlantic didn't bring warm water so far north. 10sigma event and no one in the media is paying attention. Tell me again a bedtime story about how we're going to fix it. And yeah, the arctic isn't going to be 35 degrees hotter permanently now, but tipping points, feedback loops, punctuated equilibrium, all those things exist. It's not all gradual, it's not all slowly speeding up, sometimes there are sudden shifts.
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Nov 18, 2016 03:16
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Fojar38 posted:Uh, I thought that it was pretty widely held that you can't necessarily attribute individual weather events towards climate change. It's more nuanced than that. Linking an individual weather event directly to climate change is effectively trying to prove a counterfactual. Climate change is happening, and there's no way that we can glimpse into an alternate reality where it isn't happening and prove that any particular weather event wouldn't occur there. That doesn't mean that you can't indirectly link a particular event to climate change by modeling the probability of similar events occurring in a warmer or cooler world, however. Paradoxish fucked around with this message at 03:22 on Nov 18, 2016 |
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Nov 18, 2016 03:18
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WaryWarren posted:goddamn, i say. it went up over the weekend but plunged again in the past three days. So, I knocked on this because I saw it as a retweet from Paul Beckwith who had tweeted it out with the same apocalypse now stuff attached. I followed the graph back to the arctic sea ice forum, and there seems to be some discussion on how real this is, or if it's just a continuing problem with sensor data ie. they switched satellites but they use the same sensor instrument so the other one could be screwed up too. However the temperature abnormality happening now makes me pretty worried about it.
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Nov 18, 2016 03:25
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Fojar38 posted:Uh, I thought that it was pretty widely held that you can't necessarily attribute individual weather events towards climate change. To get into this in more detail, the thing about global climate change is that its effects are regional. It's not that the whole world will be x degrees warmer, it means that the changes in temperature are going to adjust long-established climate systems, and those adjustments are going to mean some places end up drier, some places end up colder, some places get more rain, etc. The major problems with climate change are that it moves the median, so events that are hotter, like this one, are hotter than they would have been, and it makes the system different, which is bad, because we built all of modern civilization with long-term investment expecting earth systems to maintain their current patterns. So while individual events are "weather" they're severity, nature and location result from the changes in climate.
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Nov 18, 2016 03:25
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e: looked at the helpful OP, nevermind
Abrasive Obelisk fucked around with this message at 04:43 on Nov 18, 2016 |
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Nov 18, 2016 04:37
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Abrasive Obelisk posted:e: looked at the helpful OP, nevermind We wonder,—and some Hunter may express Wonder like ours, when through the wilderness Where London stood, holding the Wolf in chase, He meets some fragment huge, and stops to guess What powerful but unrecorded race Once dwelt in that annihilated place.
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Nov 18, 2016 04:45
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Summer is coming. State change, motherfuckers.
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Nov 18, 2016 05:03
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This has to be a glitch or some weird anomaly right? How would the figurative dam just burst all of a sudden?
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Nov 18, 2016 05:05
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:This has to be a glitch or some weird anomaly right? How would the figurative dam just burst all of a sudden? That's often how phase transitions work.
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Nov 18, 2016 05:07
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:This has to be a glitch or some weird anomaly right? How would the figurative dam just burst all of a sudden? The idea that this is a sensor glitch seems to be wishful thinking, but who knows? It's based on a press release from much earlier in the year, but the data being used here is from after the problem was resolved. Could still be a technical issue given how flat out wrong the data looks, but at the same time temperatures at the North Pole are absurdly high right now. Could be that we're just seeing the result of a lot of different variables lining up in a really bad way.
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Nov 18, 2016 05:14
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What's a phase transition. I need more things to have anxiety about. Donald Trump being president is not enough.
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Nov 18, 2016 05:14
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In a ecological succession, it's difficult to change the environment because ideally it tries to revert back to its normal state. But if you push the environment too far, you reach a tipping point or phase transition, and the environmental reactions push it to a new normal. Forests can be thinned, and they'll grow back. If they're clear cut, it becomes a grassland.
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Nov 18, 2016 05:31
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Akilles posted:In a ecological succession, it's difficult to change the environment because ideally it tries to revert back to its normal state. But if you push the environment too far, you reach a tipping point or phase transition, and the environmental reactions push it to a new normal. Oh that makes sense.
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Nov 18, 2016 05:33
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cyphr555 posted:In that vein, could Uranium Phoenix or someone else (with permission) turn the OP (plus maybe some additional wisdom we've gathered from this thread, such as the post I'm quoting) into a shareable post on Medium or something similar? I really want to raise awareness but a) this seems too long for a facebook post, b) I don't want to plagiarize, and c) linking to the SA forums is not gonna capture the hearts and minds of the general public, let's be honest. I don't know what the heck Medium is (nor after googling it how seriously people take it), but feel free to cross-post and share the OP I guess. I've tried to link to some of the articles posted in this thread and some of the insightful posts. The OP was written with the SA forums in mind though, and as a jumping off point for discussion, so it might need some significant edits to make sense as an article that is shared--and certainly if you're going to add any of the major thread contributions. Feel free to do that! I have been pretty busy and exhausted lately so I'm unlikely to do that any time soon. Given the number of people who are asking for concrete things they can do, I was going to add something like this to the end of the OP. Or maybe the start of the OP, since I doubt most people who post in the thread read it all the way through? Anyways, feel free to add suggestions or revisions: More specifically, actions some actions you can take right now are:
Edit: Also, maybe add a bit on Geoengineering to the "Solutions" section so people have an idea of what has been proposed, the fact that it's a huge unknown that has not been studied nearly enough, and is probably going to be done and have really dumb consequences no one predicted. Uranium Phoenix fucked around with this message at 06:20 on Nov 18, 2016 |
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Nov 18, 2016 06:12
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for someone more involved in the science of it, how much did the "hiatus" throw off estimates once it was discovered all the heat was getting absorbed by the oceans?
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Nov 18, 2016 06:15
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Hollismason posted:So what happens when the ice disappears completely. Drill, baby, drill!
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Nov 18, 2016 09:25
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Nenonen posted:Drill, baby, drill!
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Nov 18, 2016 09:27
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Imagine how happy the EPA transition team are right now.
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Nov 18, 2016 09:38
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TildeATH posted:That's right, the Atlantic Conveyer could shut down. England is north of Green Bay, it could suddenly feel like it if the Atlantic didn't bring warm water so far north. Yeah, but surely that's still going to be happening over a significant amount of time? I mean, we're talking next century at the minimum, regardless of the inevitability of it. But yeah, northern europe is at the same latitude as most of Siberia, which means it might just be going to suuuuuck for the Nordic countries at that point.
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Nov 18, 2016 09:57
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Hollismason posted:So what happens when the ice disappears completely. A gram of ice requires 80 times more energy to melt than it takes for a gram of water to warm up by an entire degree. Imagine not having this heatsink.
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Nov 18, 2016 10:05
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Speaking of local changes we are under a red flag warning. We never get these in winter and pretty much never in the summer. I'm in Louisville, Kentucky, not some fire prone western state. We haven't had a day below freezing. Today it's going to push 80. Something is really hosed up.
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Nov 18, 2016 13:35
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It's been pretty cold here in Europe, not sure if it's been colder or warmer than normal though
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Nov 18, 2016 13:54
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Hollande was just talking at COP. The current target is carbon neutral by 2050 right? Is this actually enough to prevent more than 2 degrees Celsius warming or whatever the current red line is supposed to be?
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Nov 18, 2016 13:57
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cheese eats mouse posted:Speaking of local changes we are under a red flag warning. We never get these in winter and pretty much never in the summer. I'm in Louisville, Kentucky, not some fire prone western state. Any time I try to mention something like this to some around me, I just get the usual line about liking it warm in winter. We won't get the denial to stop until heat stroke in December becomes a valid concern.
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Nov 18, 2016 14:01
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Geostomp posted:Any time I try to mention something like this to some around me, I just get the usual line about liking it warm in winter. We won't get the denial to stop until heat stroke in December becomes a valid concern. My prediction is that what finally ends the denial is the submerging of Florida.
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Nov 18, 2016 14:13
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Rastor posted:My prediction is that what finally ends the denial is the submerging of Florida. In this regard it's fortunate that Miami is built on top of the geological equivalent of swiss cheese. It's imminent flooding might provide the shock needed to overcome political resistance to addressing climate change. Unlike the flooding of New Orleans it can't be blamed on a single levee breaking.
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Nov 18, 2016 14:29
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Condiv posted:It's been pretty cold here in Europe, not sure if it's been colder or warmer than normal though It's colder than the last couple years, but those were years so warm I never wore a coat. It's still warmer than normal.
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Nov 18, 2016 14:33
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El Grillo posted:Hollande was just talking at COP. The current target is carbon neutral by 2050 right? Is this actually enough to prevent more than 2 degrees Celsius warming or whatever the current red line is supposed to be? Well, a pretty big problem is that we really don't know exactly where that red line will be. It's probably more of a red smear anyway, because things do get progressively and maybe exponentially worse the warmer it gets in a short amount of time. I mean, humanity is already close to being an extinction level event, the anthropocene is real. We're also the only intelligent mass-extinction event (that we know of), which lends even more uniqueness to the situation. We just don't know enough yet. Ask in 2050.
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Nov 18, 2016 14:36
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Uranium Phoenix posted:I don't know what the heck Medium is (nor after googling it how seriously people take it), but feel free to cross-post and share the OP I guess. I've tried to link to some of the articles posted in this thread and some of the insightful posts. The OP was written with the SA forums in mind though, and as a jumping off point for discussion, so it might need some significant edits to make sense as an article that is shared--and certainly if you're going to add any of the major thread contributions. Feel free to do that! I have been pretty busy and exhausted lately so I'm unlikely to do that any time soon. Cue a bunch of assholes posting, "lol if u think anything u do can help anything, gently caress you got mine you first world babies, get used to it or kill yourselves" in response to your post suggesting means of involvement.
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Nov 18, 2016 15:14
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Nocturtle posted:In this regard it's fortunate that Miami is built on top of the geological equivalent of swiss cheese. It's imminent flooding might provide the shock needed to overcome political resistance to addressing climate change. Unlike the flooding of New Orleans it can't be blamed on a single levee breaking. Also there are a lot fewer poor Black folks living in Miami, and there are a lot more stupidly rich people living there and driving a hilarious real estate bubble.
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Nov 18, 2016 15:31
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Potato Salad posted:Cue a bunch of assholes posting, "lol if u think anything u do can help anything, gently caress you got mine you first world babies, get used to it or kill yourselves" in response to your post suggesting means of involvement. Local pressure, people. It just took all of ONE DAY organizing to just get our University President to take steps towards making our campus a Sanctuary School (protecting undocumented immigrants).
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Nov 18, 2016 15:33
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The Verge just did an interesting article on Miami: http://www.theverge.com/2016/11/17/13660014/miami-beach-sand-erosion-nourishment-climate-change
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Nov 18, 2016 15:34
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Rastor posted:The Verge just did an interesting article on Miami: loving sand importers gently caress this poo poo, gently caress plutocrats hoarding every bit of value in this world to themselves
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Nov 18, 2016 16:02
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That's not what the article is about.
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Nov 18, 2016 16:03
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Miami Beach is not Miami but interesting article all the same.
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Nov 18, 2016 16:03
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Fojar38 posted:Uh, I thought that it was pretty widely held that you can't necessarily attribute individual weather events towards climate change. This is true for weather events that would normally be possible, if unlikely, that happen in isolation. When you start getting weather that you would never have seen without climate change, or extreme temperature within the possible range far more often than could reasonable by expected, you can start attributing weather to climate change. Imagine rolling three six sided dice over and over again. "Weather" is the total of the values shown. "Climate" is the values on each face of each die. Your values are gonna cluster between 9 and 11, generally, on normal dice. Rolling an 18 isn't evidence that something has gone screwy with the dice, though! If you keep rolling, you'll get a few. Rolling six 18s (weather) in 10 rolls starts strongly suggesting that something has changed about the die faces (climate), so you can reasonable attribute the series to climate change, with a chance of being wrong. Rolling a 19 (weather) is actually really, incredibly strong evidence that the faces have changed (climate) since it shouldn't even be possible, so yeah thats a single event that can still be attributed towards climate change. I don't know if we've rolled any genuine 19s yet, but I wouldn't be surprised either.
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Nov 18, 2016 16:04
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Geostomp posted:Any time I try to mention something like this to some around me, I just get the usual line about liking it warm in winter. We won't get the denial to stop until heat stroke in December becomes a valid concern. We might get rain tonight and an actual drop in temps. Rain in the forecast has not been very common either considering how wet it usually is in the fall for us. This is a chronic several month weather pattern of being stuck in dry August, but it's November.
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Nov 18, 2016 16:22
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does buying carbon offsets do literally anything
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Nov 18, 2016 16:52
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Mozi posted:That's not what the article is about. There's a portion with a guy who literally peddles sand from the bahamas to rich people to sand their beaches with
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Nov 18, 2016 16:55
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