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Rastor posted:The Verge just did an interesting article on Miami: Neat article. I love these kinds of details: The Verge posted:Heard is a Republican, but laments her party’s denial of climate change. (Last year, the Florida Center for Investigative Reporting found that the state's governor, Rick Scott, forbid state officials from using the term in emails or reports.) Jacqui Thurlow-Lippisch, another Martin County commissioner who objected to the Corps plan, is also a Republican, and also clear-eyed about what rising seas will do to her community. Just as there are proverbially no atheists in foxholes, it’s increasingly difficult to be a local politician in coastal Florida and deny the sea is rising. Double-think is real and explains people who are concerned about climate change but back the party that systematically obstructs any attempt to deal with the problem. Also St. Lucie and Martin counties went pretty solidly Trump so bring on the deluge. SSJ_naruto_2003 posted:Miami Beach is not Miami but interesting article all the same. Whatever, so long as one of them sinks into the ocean. indigi posted:does buying carbon offsets do literally anything Aside from removing money from your wallet no.
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Nov 18, 2016 17:22
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Nocturtle posted:Whatever, so long as one of them sinks into the ocean. Silver lining of global warming: we might actually get Arizona Bay
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Nov 18, 2016 17:31
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cheese eats mouse posted:Speaking of local changes we are under a red flag warning. We never get these in winter and pretty much never in the summer. I'm in Louisville, Kentucky, not some fire prone western state. Take a look at the climatology for Louisville. The mean max is 75 degrees, the record for today is 85 set in '85 and the average daily high for the month is 57. Theres "only" a 90% probability that you'll have a freeze before the 20th I lived in Lexington for 20 years (wow I feel old saying that) and can hit the 70s in December. These aren't crazy out of the normal weather events... yet. Start panicking when you set record late freezes.
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Nov 18, 2016 17:48
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It was 80 degrees two days ago... in Denver. It snowed for the first time yesterday... in Denver. We always have snow by Halloween. Every time I've made a comment attributing that to climate change I've gotten, "Colorado weather has always been weird, man" dismissals. And when I told my mother I watched Before the Flood and what it was about, her response was.... "Oh, another liberal documentary. Just kidding! But it is liberal." 
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Nov 18, 2016 17:59
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Geostomp posted:Any time I try to mention something like this to some around me, I just get the usual line about liking it warm in winter. We won't get the denial to stop until heat stroke in December becomes a valid concern. I've found the best word to use is 'eerie'. "This warm winter has been pretty eerie, huh?"
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Nov 18, 2016 18:11
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its no big deal posted:It was 80 degrees two days ago... in Denver. It snowed for the first time yesterday... in Denver. We always have snow by Halloween. Every time I've made a comment attributing that to climate change I've gotten, "Colorado weather has always been weird, man" dismissals. Your largest problem with using statements like "Its always _____ by _____ " is that older people will remember that that isn't true. You have 18 Octobers on record without snow. (and another 17 with only a trace) Only one november but 9 with only a trace. The record late first snow is November 21st set in 1934 so yeah November 17th is really late but not the latest in living memory. This is why you have to use averages.
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Nov 18, 2016 18:11
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hobbesmaster posted:Your largest problem with using statements like "Its always _____ by _____ " is that older people will remember that that isn't true. You have 18 Octobers on record without snow. (and another 17 with only a trace) Only one november but 9 with only a trace. The record late first snow is November 21st set in 1934 so yeah November 17th is really late but not the latest in living memory. Oh absolutely. I should clarify that my comments to people have been when they have been commenting about how unseasonably warm it has been. I'd hazard a guess that an 80 degree and sunny to 30 degrees and snow shift over 24 hours is the type of dramatic shift that has happened very rarely. I wouldn't know how to pull together data to support that, though.
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Nov 18, 2016 18:23
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its no big deal posted:Oh absolutely. I should clarify that my comments to people have been when they have been commenting about how unseasonably warm it has been. I'd hazard a guess that an 80 degree and sunny to 30 degrees and snow shift over 24 hours is the type of dramatic shift that has happened very rarely. I wouldn't know how to pull together data to support that, though. Whatever its occurrence, it doesn't make the top 20. Close though!
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Nov 18, 2016 18:26
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hobbesmaster posted:Whatever its occurrence, it doesn't make the top 20. Close though! Great link! Apparently I need to get more familiar with weather.gov
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Nov 18, 2016 18:32
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There hasn't been a single day with high temperatures below 50°F in Green Bay, WI, for the entirety of November. Thirteen of those days have been above 60°F. This is not necessarily unprecedented for our climate, but there has certainly been an increase in the frequency of these "not unprecedented" situations. One fun aspect of this unusual pattern has been a nearly daily occurrence of complex sun halos for the last two weeks. One had 22° and 46°(!) halos, parhelia, supralateral and circumzenith arcs, and an upper tangent arc.
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Nov 18, 2016 18:50
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Kinda sad about Florida. I've never even been to the US, but I loved that documentary about the vast underground lakes in Florida, when they had the guys diving through the water caves and people on the surface tracking them through stores and things. And how they're all being flooded with salt water. Anyway, with global trends, there's an interesting point. With perspective and how people interpret things. Because I never got around to this, and it seems kinda important from a family-preserving-lore sense. I really want to ask my grandmother about how it was when she was my age. A solid 60 years ago. And it kinda seems like it has more integrity, to me, because my grandmother is a stone-cold right-wing woman-hating fascist. (It's people like her that make me realise how it is possible that women in YOUR country actually voted for Trump. Because she would have voted for him. No question. No, abstaining, she'd have been there 7 am to vote for him. And it's super weird because I would never trust her with my opinions or preferences or politics. But she can still manage to be all super wise and compassionate and I'd trust her waaay more than my parents who are actual liberals like me.) She has stories, about her childhood, about the frost and the cold. And about the oppressive heat of summer. And I think she respects nature and climate. But I really should ask her about the environment and all that. How she reconciles her personal experience with her politics.
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Nov 18, 2016 18:56
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hobbesmaster posted:Your largest problem with using statements like "Its always _____ by _____ " is that older people will remember that that isn't true. You have 18 Octobers on record without snow. (and another 17 with only a trace) Only one november but 9 with only a trace. The record late first snow is November 21st set in 1934 so yeah November 17th is really late but not the latest in living memory. Pretty much this. If you start talking about warm days (or even warm winters), people who are mostly uninformed are going to immediately put you into the same basket as "skeptics" who roll their eyes about climate change whenever there's a cold or snowy winter. If you want to convince people that things are bad then you really need to talk about long term averages and trends and just find a way to power through when their eyes start to glaze over. A big part of this fight is convincing people that there's not actually any debate happening here - just reality on one side and damaging, self-interested fiction on the other.
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Nov 18, 2016 19:11
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Nice piece of fish posted:Well, a pretty big problem is that we really don't know exactly where that red line will be. It's probably more of a red smear anyway, because things do get progressively and maybe exponentially worse the warmer it gets in a short amount of time.
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Nov 18, 2016 19:49
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Paradoxish posted:Pretty much this. It gets worse when it's not even global. Like, there was a thing done for my state, about the health cost of coal mining and power generation, and the cost was well over AU$10^9. Medical fees, lost income, disability pensions, etc. And the majority of that was in the small region where the mining and burning takes place. Where kids get asthma at ridiculous rates, where adults get cancer and die enough to affect the entire state's average cancer rates and even life expectancy! But nope, no lies about conspiracy here. Because they acknowledge, in a super sad way, that it's the coal mines and power plants that poison them... that poison their children! But it's jobs. Jobs for them all. Join the company, get a super nice wage. They KNOW, they know as a fact, having ancestors who have lived there for generations, from having friends with cancer or just a "permanent cough", that the air is poison. But the poison mine is still life to them. And shutting down the place? It'd kill the town. No question. Hey fun fact, it was bought out by a multinational a while ago who have decided to bite the bullet and shut the shithole down! So, that's almost a full % of the world's carbon emissions right here. So it's not about the climate debate. People KNOW, ok! We're not all Americans! But a lot of people have jobs in the industries.
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Nov 18, 2016 19:53
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IronClaymore posted:It gets worse when it's not even global. Like, there was a thing done for my state, about the health cost of coal mining and power generation, and the cost was well over AU$10^9. Medical fees, lost income, disability pensions, etc. And the majority of that was in the small region where the mining and burning takes place. Where kids get asthma at ridiculous rates, where adults get cancer and die enough to affect the entire state's average cancer rates and even life expectancy! I was listening to some npr poo poo in the car earlier today and some dude was interviewing some lifelong democrats that had voted trump this election based on their view (rightly) that Hillary would eliminate their precious coal mining work, but Trump would keep them in a job. The one dude interview was >50 years old said as much in a five minute interview and concluded with something like: "Alright lets end this thing, my back is killing me!". Then the next interview with some lady talking about how she voted the same way so her 60 year old husband can get a job working in the mines again...like why the gently caress do these old broken-rear end people want or think they are going to be physically able to work in a coal mine? It's like some gone with the wind level clamoring to a past that never actually existed.
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Nov 18, 2016 20:19
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So the issue with artic ice is that it reflects heat, can't we artificially do that some how?
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Nov 18, 2016 20:20
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Hollismason posted:So the issue with artic ice is that it reflects heat, can't we artificially do that some how? That's not the sole role arctic ice has on diffusing heat from the sun.
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Nov 18, 2016 20:22
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Hollismason posted:So the issue with artic ice is that it reflects heat, can't we artificially do that some how? Yeah, like put a butt load of photovoltaic cells on the equator, and every bit of land down to the tropic lines, and keep them polished, you might just soak up all the solar energy arctic ice used to reflect. And they'd have to be the best solar cells you ever imagined. Sure, artificially possible. Give me 20% of your and everyone else's income {bracketed} it'd be done. Still less effort than fighting the Nazis or making boondoggles to scare the Soviets. Feral Integral posted:I was listening to some npr poo poo in the car earlier today and some dude was interviewing some lifelong democrats that had voted trump this election based on their view (rightly) that Hillary would eliminate their precious coal mining work, but Trump would keep them in a job. The one dude interview was >50 years old said as much in a five minute interview and concluded with something like: "Alright lets end this thing, my back is killing me!". To be fair, we still need coking coal. Well, maybe. Unless energy becomes super cheap enough that we can arc the ore but that's just idiotic. Also, water gas, and shift, and nitrogen shift, is needed for ammonia and so for nitrate and so for most of the world's food supply. Simplifying here, but those loving idiots who waste good coal on mere steam production are wasteful fuckers. Coal is good for decent chemical processes and should not be wasted as mere "fuel". Also those chemical processes might be made obsolete by biotech which is even better. As for coal mining, gently caress THAT! I wouldn't force Mao himself to work in a coal mine! Much less wage-slave people. Anyone forced out of that job should recognise their new lease on life. And besides, copper is making a comeback, thanks to expensive electric cars, learn to diversify mining dudes! (Also welcome to the dole queue get in line.) IronClaymore fucked around with this message at 21:42 on Nov 18, 2016 |
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Nov 18, 2016 21:39
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Feral Integral posted:I was listening to some npr poo poo in the car earlier today and some dude was interviewing some lifelong democrats that had voted trump this election based on their view (rightly) that Hillary would eliminate their precious coal mining work, but Trump would keep them in a job. The one dude interview was >50 years old said as much in a five minute interview and concluded with something like: "Alright lets end this thing, my back is killing me!". As stupid as it seems to us outsiders, this is literally the only work there is around there that can sustain these people. It's literally either this or working at the local Wal-Mart/fast food joint making barely enough money to keep food on the table let alone enough to be able to derive some joy out of life. Until we can offer something different there isn't any hope to convince these people that coal should go away.
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Nov 18, 2016 21:43
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Hollismason posted:So the issue with artic ice is that it reflects heat, can't we artificially do that some how? Painting our roads and rooftops white is a thing mumbled about for years, not sure why it's not suggested more heavily as a way of curbing heat (probably because we don't care enough at the moment)
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Nov 18, 2016 21:45
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RedneckwithGuns posted:As stupid as it seems to us outsiders, this is literally the only work there is around there that can sustain these people. It's literally either this or working at the local Wal-Mart/fast food joint making barely enough money to keep food on the table let alone enough to be able to derive some joy out of life. Until we can offer something different there isn't any hope to convince these people that coal should go away. they should move to where the jobs are instead of being lazy entitled moochers. they just need a dose of hard work and personal responsibility, not a government job handout. the government can't create jobs, everybody knows that.
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Nov 18, 2016 21:46
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That doesn't help people in Kentucky or West Virginia though. The only jobs they ever had were coal related. Copper doesn't help because there isn't copper there. The main problem is that Hillary' response to the debate question was in effect "this jobs are gone, good riddance." People in areas where their only way of life was coal hear that as "gently caress you". Trump says he's going to bring back the joogest, big league coal mines, steel manufacturing, etc to hell with the environmental regulations. That resonates because at least if you work in a mine you can afford to feed your family. The same thing is happening around the world and as far mitigating global warming goes this comes at the worst possible time. Maybe they can all get jobs in massive geo engineering projects?
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Nov 18, 2016 21:48
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hobbesmaster posted:That doesn't help people in Kentucky or West Virginia though. The only jobs they ever had were coal related. Copper doesn't help because there isn't copper there. Well with at least the people interviewed, they were all like - "no! we dont want to be retrained in something else, we don't want to work with computers, we just want our deadly coal shucking jobs back!!". I don't really have much sympathy for people who can't even be bothered to attempt to change with the times.
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Nov 18, 2016 22:05
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The computer jobs they'd be training for pay significantly less than the mines did. The mines paid high school drop outs what a CS grad makes in a flyover state. Besides they don't have the money to move because there's no jobs and student loans are going to just make the situation worse.
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Nov 18, 2016 22:12
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Feral Integral posted:Well with at least the people interviewed, they were all like - "no! we dont want to be retrained in something else, we don't want to work with computers, we just want our deadly coal shucking jobs back!!". I don't really have much sympathy for people who can't even be bothered to attempt to change with the times. Most of them would be happy to be retrained to jobs that are less lovely than coal-mining, and it's weird but that's actually kind of hard to find.
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Nov 18, 2016 22:18
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RedneckwithGuns posted:As stupid as it seems to us outsiders, this is literally the only work there is around there that can sustain these people. It's literally either this or working at the local Wal-Mart/fast food joint making barely enough money to keep food on the table let alone enough to be able to derive some joy out of life. Until we can offer something different there isn't any hope to convince these people that coal should go away. Soon we'll be offering them deserts and flooding!
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Nov 18, 2016 22:20
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hobbesmaster posted:The computer jobs they'd be training for pay significantly less than the mines did. The mines paid high school drop outs what a CS grad makes in a flyover state. Besides they don't have the money to move because there's no jobs and student loans are going to just make the situation worse. the entitlement is overwhelming. maybe if they had worked hard and got an education they could have made something of themselves. the free market moves fast, and you have to move with it or die, like a shark. now they have to opportunity to explore themselves, retrain, look for a private sector job built by a job creater who is a titan of business, and they can feel the pride of accomplishment that comes with pulling yourself up by the bootstraps instead of relying on a government handout. the free market has spoken.
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Nov 18, 2016 22:22
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Feral Integral posted:Well with at least the people interviewed, they were all like - "no! we dont want to be retrained in something else, we don't want to work with computers, we just want our deadly coal shucking jobs back!!". I don't really have much sympathy for people who can't even be bothered to attempt to change with the times. Do they need your sympathy? Because they've made it pretty clear that they still have enough power to make their voices heard. Power enough that they might not need your sympathy. At least they probably think so.
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Nov 18, 2016 22:38
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The government should tax carbon emissions and then pay those idiots to put the mountains back where they found them.
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Nov 18, 2016 22:42
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Stereotype posted:The government should tax carbon emissions and then pay those idiots to put the mountains back where they found them. It's a joke, but you're not far off. Industrialist and other robber baron capitalists who have made their money from carbon emitting industry have avoided paying for the damage they have caused. I mean, the taxes they pay and the compensations they've been forced at the point of a gavel to pay don't even come close to the monetary worth of the sheer damage they have done to people's lives, and will do in the future. They never paid the actual cost of that pollution, and so that money ought to be taken back and spent reversing as much harm as possible.
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Nov 18, 2016 22:54
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bef posted:Painting our roads and rooftops white is a thing mumbled about for years, not sure why it's not suggested more heavily as a way of curbing heat (probably because we don't care enough at the moment) Turning roads into highly reflective surfaces would be a great way to get a lot of people killed.
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Nov 18, 2016 22:55
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ArmZ posted:the entitlement is overwhelming. maybe if they had worked hard and got an education they could have made something of themselves. the free market moves fast, and you have to move with it or die, like a shark. now they have to opportunity to explore themselves, retrain, look for a private sector job built by a job creater who is a titan of business, and they can feel the pride of accomplishment that comes with pulling yourself up by the bootstraps instead of relying on a government handout. the free market has spoken. You realize they have the franchise, right? They have recourse through political action. What I'm saying is, we'll never get this problem fixed until we fix the franchise.
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Nov 18, 2016 23:00
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bef posted:Painting our roads and rooftops white is a thing mumbled about for years, not sure why it's not suggested more heavily as a way of curbing heat (probably because we don't care enough at the moment) No way this doesn't turn out to look like a white swastika across the country from space
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Nov 18, 2016 23:09
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Paradoxish posted:Turning roads into highly reflective surfaces would be a great way to get a lot of people killed. Reducing the number of western motorists would be a great way to reduce carbon emissions. Along those lines I propose a repeal of the speed limit and mandatory seatbelts.
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Nov 18, 2016 23:16
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ArmZ posted:the entitlement is overwhelming. maybe if they had worked hard and got an education they could have made something of themselves. the free market moves fast, and you have to move with it or die, like a shark. now they have to opportunity to explore themselves, retrain, look for a private sector job built by a job creater who is a titan of business, and they can feel the pride of accomplishment that comes with pulling yourself up by the bootstraps instead of relying on a government handout. the free market has spoken. Except it's actually Obama's fault that the mines are closed. Elect a generic republican and they'll fight Obama and those mines will be open again in no time!
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Nov 18, 2016 23:21
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TildeATH posted:You realize they have the franchise, right? They have recourse through political action. mcconell already said they can't do anything about it lol
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Nov 18, 2016 23:54
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Nice piece of fish posted:Yeah, but surely that's still going to be happening over a significant amount of time? I mean, we're talking next century at the minimum, regardless of the inevitability of it. It's thought that it can happen rather rapidly. It's anyone's guess as to when it might happen, though. e: Arctic Nov 17 2016: 1.77 million square kilometers below average area e2: Global Extent, updated daily Global Area, updated daily These three are from forum.arctic-sea-ice.net e3: I haven't harped too much on November's craziness, since the two poles are quite different... but I want to point out something: Every year, the June peak is smaller than the November peak - except this year. Evil_Greven fucked around with this message at 01:05 on Nov 19, 2016 |
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Nov 19, 2016 00:08
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So I have more of a theoretical question now that I've started seeing these graphs; Is there such a thing as 'negative' emissions? I remember someone bringing it up awhile ago. Is that even a possibility, that we get some sort of technology that reduces the emissions we make? I know any amount of warming is bad, but is there an amount of CO2 that the world can naturally deal with humans adding to the world? I know these don't really matter compared to what we're seeing now, that's not what I'm really asking or anything, I'm just curious what kind of fairytale 'negative emissions' is, if it's the 'maybe if we had 400 more years' fairytale or the 'literally a fairytale and can't ever happen' fairytale
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Nov 19, 2016 01:08
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Sure. It's possible to trap CO2, and there are a variety of methods to do so. As to how much CO2 we can emit... at this point? It would have to be negative emissions. Do we have the will to do so on a grand enough scale that it matters, though? That remains to be seen. Speaking of, here's some more fun: https://twitter.com/Weather_West/status/799705160796672000 Forecast heat into December... wonder what will become of the sea ice in the Arctic at that point? Evil_Greven fucked around with this message at 01:26 on Nov 19, 2016 |
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Nov 19, 2016 01:23
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Banana Man posted:for someone more involved in the science of it, how much did the "hiatus" throw off estimates once it was discovered all the heat was getting absorbed by the oceans? Depends on who you ask and what projection method the model in question uses, but general consensus is that overlooking the hiatus threw off our predictions by a 2-3 degrees C difference between now and 2100. The Paris Accords upper limit of 2 degrees C max of warming was already kind of far fetched before we figured out the hiatus, now it's just laughable. Nice piece of fish posted:Yeah, but surely that's still going to be happening over a significant amount of time? I mean, we're talking next century at the minimum, regardless of the inevitability of it. As Evil_Greven said, we don't really know. The last time it happened (Younger Dryas), the time scale was 1000s of years. Given how much we're warming the planet and frontloading immense amounts of heat energy into planetary cycles that we don't fully understand, it could happen a lot faster this time. Could be centuries, could be decades, could be months if we get another 3-4 year run of progressively warmer "hottest years ever". Thing is, once it starts, we won't be able to stop it. cheese eats mouse posted:Speaking of local changes we are under a red flag warning. We never get these in winter and pretty much never in the summer. I'm in Louisville, Kentucky, not some fire prone western state. It was 70 F today in upstate NY. Night time temps have been hovering around the 40s and 50s. We might get below freezing by Thanksgiving. Maybe. The writing is on the wall, but no one wants to read it.
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Nov 19, 2016 02:09
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