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I'm glad the Seahawks hate Russel Wilson and want him to die, otherwise he'd be Elite.
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Nov 23, 2016 16:56
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Is there any sort of explanation of how DVOA / PFF ratings are done? I'm guessing they hide behind the "IP" curtain but I'd really like to take a closer look.
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Nov 23, 2016 17:06
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"Oh hey cool stat can you prove to me it's not just made up garbage?" "No." The Ballad of DVOA
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Nov 23, 2016 17:06
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I still check DVOA every week.
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Nov 23, 2016 17:08
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fsif posted:I still check DVOA every week. Same 
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Nov 23, 2016 17:10
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Good Will Hrunting posted:Is there any sort of explanation of how DVOA / PFF ratings are done? I'm guessing they hide behind the "IP" curtain but I'd really like to take a closer look. The actual calculations of DVOA are proprietary I believe but you can read what they say publicly here. Lots of words. PFF (supposedly) watches tape and grades each player on every play giving them a score of -2 to +2. Then they tally all those plays up. Their page explaining stuff is here. Few words, lots of bullshit.
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Nov 23, 2016 17:12
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Good Will Hrunting posted:Is there any sort of explanation of how DVOA / PFF ratings are done? I'm guessing they hide behind the "IP" curtain but I'd really like to take a closer look. For DVOA, it's based off of the original model developed in The Hidden Game of Football ... and honestly, just read the long explanation here: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods. Hidden Game is a good read, but it's pretty out of date due to uh... well watch a football game from the 80's and one from now. For PFF, a couple guys watch the game and grade every single player on every play then they mash those together in a spreadsheet and post it.
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Nov 23, 2016 17:14
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I think DVOA is *probably* a better overall metric to cite than traditional counting stats if only because it accounts for specific game situations (i.e., accounting for garbage time stats), but because of its opacity, it's sort of hard to say for sure. But since it doesn't seem to have much in the way of predictive powers, I'm not sure what function it serves other than bolstering an argument about a team being underrated or whatever.
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Nov 23, 2016 17:18
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The Texans are 30th in DVOA and have a winning record, leading their division. lol
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Nov 23, 2016 17:22
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I think DVOA could be a good statistic to see how teams adjust and improve over the season in different aspects of the game. I assume PFF grades are really poor at looking at players outside of a vacuum. I don't see how either could be very useful for predicting outcomes of games or anything like that. Too many discrete events with different possible outcomes impacted by too many things that will differ on a game by game basis, let alone week by week basis.
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Nov 23, 2016 17:37
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PFF grades each player for how well they did their job on every single play. There are 2 huge problems with this: - PFF staff often have no clue what a player's assignment was. This is especially true for DBs and OL. The fact that most of the PFF staff a) has never played football and b) doesn't wait for all-22 footage compounds this huge issue. How can you grade a safety's job if you don't even see what he is doing on most plays? - When grading if a player did his job on a play, they do not take into account the quality of the opposition. So a guard being beaten by JJ Watt gets the same bad grade he would if he were beaten by, say, Tyson Jackson or some other poo poo DL. If you are a CB you get the same grade for shutting down Antonio Brown or Albert Wilson, doesn't matter.
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Nov 23, 2016 17:39
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That's ridiculous. A wide receiver essentially gets the same score for beating a corner who might have slipped where there was no safety help as someone who broke a handful of tackles or ankles in the open field to pick up tons of YAC? Looking at players performance in such a vacuum is useless. At least DVOA seems to do a little more in accounting for causation.
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Nov 23, 2016 17:45
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I don't know about that, PFF may give a poo poo about the CB slipping, or they may not. It's all entirely subjective and ..crap!
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Nov 23, 2016 17:45
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Good Will Hrunting posted:That's ridiculous. A wide receiver essentially gets the same score for beating a corner who might have slipped where there was no safety help as someone who broke a handful of tackles or ankles in the open field to pick up tons of YAC? Yeah. For example, Logan Ryan, corner for the Patriots was one of the lowest rated players last week due to being isolated against Seahawks WR's while Wilson was on against Seattle because the Pats scheme was using safety help focusing on Graham. Then he was one of the highest rated players in the league this week because he was able to smother some extremely lovely Kaepernick passes to... whomever the gently caress the 49ers 2nd WR is. Diva Cupcake posted:The Texans are 30th in DVOA and have a winning record, leading their division. lol I'm not sure if they're the 3rd worst team since their defense seems to play really well at times. (Clowney is really good apparently?) But whenever Brock is throwing, I buy it. Kalli fucked around with this message at 17:53 on Nov 23, 2016 |
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Nov 23, 2016 17:47
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PFF says that Philip Rivers is more effective as a runner this year than Russell Wilson. PFF
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Nov 23, 2016 17:53
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I agree with PFF in that Parrish Cox is one of the worst CBs in the league and I wish we had spent a second last year on a CB instead of Dodd.
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Nov 23, 2016 18:02
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I was so sure Janoris Jenkins was going to be a bust but he's playing pretty well so far. Giants defense has turned it around too. Helps that Landon Collins transformed into an MVP/DPOY candidate overnight
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Nov 23, 2016 18:02
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Sammy Watkins is practicing again 😪
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Nov 23, 2016 18:15
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DVOA they post for quarterbacks at least tells you stuff like "his score is high because he converted 9/10 third and longs." For teams it seems all over the place, like saying the Eagles were the best most of the season when...lolwut?
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Nov 23, 2016 18:43
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Nov 23, 2016 18:53
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Why is tom Brady waving his bedpan around? 
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Nov 23, 2016 18:57
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sean10mm posted:DVOA they post for quarterbacks at least tells you stuff like "his score is high because he converted 9/10 third and longs." The Eagles started the season by stomping two terrible teams, and followed that up by sandwiching two close losses with an annihilation of the Steelers and handing the unbeaten Vikings a thorough defeat. They then had two more close losses, with a two score win over the Falcons. That's why they were in first until they lost to the Seahawks, they had the most dominant performance of the year, two other very solid wins against good teams and 2 blowouts to go with 4 close losses. Who would you expect to have been in first until last week? The Seahawks were a mediocre team for the first half of the season. The Patriots have a bunch of stomps of bad teams, but an underwhelming september and defense. The Cowboys are only stomping bad teams, and playing close coinflip-ish games against better competition.
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Nov 23, 2016 18:57
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That trophy is looking a bit......deflated
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Nov 23, 2016 18:58
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Started really following the Bears this season since my buddies always ragged on me for not having a team, and I like them a lot. I've heard a few commentators here and there call it the worst season in their history, what would you guys say to that?
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Nov 23, 2016 18:59
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I dont know much about their history but all the Bears seem to have going for them is a few interesting, talented guys in the front 7, otherwise it is a pretty dire situation
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Nov 23, 2016 19:03
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Low Desert Punk posted:Started really following the Bears this season since my buddies always ragged on me for not having a team, and I like them a lot. I've heard a few commentators here and there call it the worst season in their history, what would you guys say to that? It's probably close. The Bears are currently in a bad way. They replaced their GM and head coach last year after a string of underperformance and bad drafting // player acquisitions, and brought in John Fox to basically rebuild the roster, and decided to jettison most of their veterans. They got rid of Matt Forte and Michael Bennett last offseason and are most likely going to let Jay Cutler and probably Alshon Jefferies go this year. Their defense has improved this year, but has a ton of injuries and isn't some amazing unit, they're just closer to league average then the like 31st they were last year. So basically the Bears are in a position where they need to find a new Franchise quarterback, something they've been awful at for a hundred years, inject a ton of talent onto their offense and defense, while dealing with like 18 players coming off of IR next season. If they don't show marked improvements next year, they'll likely fire John Fox and a new coach gets to come in and dump a bunch of players and try to implement his system.
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Nov 23, 2016 19:07
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Low Desert Punk posted:I've heard a few commentators here and there call it the worst season in their history, what would you guys say to that? Huh, interesting, this isn't really what I expected. Looking up their history the only definitively worse year at this point is 1969 when they went 1-13. The end of the Wannstedt era (97-98) was pretty ugly with back to back 4-12 years. Other than that they're either mediocre or good for the most part. The franchise has existed since 1925. There are a few other 3 or 4 win seasons (when there were less games than there are now), but that's a really impressive history generally. Kalli posted:If they don't show marked improvements next year, they'll likely fire John Fox and a new coach gets to come in and dump a bunch of players and try to implement his system. This should probably happen but he might buy another year or two with "well we had to get rid of Cutler, what are we supposed to do at QB?" crap.
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Nov 23, 2016 19:15
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Kalli posted:Yeah. For example, Logan Ryan, corner for the Patriots was one of the lowest rated players last week due to being isolated against Seahawks WR's while Wilson was on against Seattle because the Pats scheme was using safety help focusing on Graham. The 49ers WR corps is Jeremy Kerley, Quinton Patton, and the hollow husk of Torrey Smith. Kerley is sitting at 40/424 and caught none of his 6 targets Sunday. Patton is 30/362 and was 2/17 on 5 targets. Smith is 17/243 on 39 targets (lol) and did not play because of a shoulder injury. Our TEs are Vance McDonald (18/322; 3/46 on 6) and Garrett Celek (19/256; 3/41 on 3).
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Nov 23, 2016 19:17
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Nov 23, 2016 19:23
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Eat your heart out, courtroom sketch artist.
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Nov 23, 2016 19:49
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Kalli posted:It's probably Alshon Jefferies No, it's Alshon Jeffery.
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Nov 23, 2016 19:52
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Sorry Wilford Cutleries
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Nov 23, 2016 19:52
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Low Desert Punk posted:Started really following the Bears this season since my buddies always ragged on me for not having a team, and I like them a lot. I've heard a few commentators here and there call it the worst season in their history, what would you guys say to that? The Bears have never drafted higher than 3rd overall. They have a decent shot at the number 2 overall pick this year. So yes, this very well may be the worst Bears team in their nearly 100 years of existence. At the very least, it is the worst Bears team in my lifetime. Edit: This here Alshon Jefferies!
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Nov 23, 2016 19:56
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Sam Shields and Eddie Lacy are both done for the season. Sam Shields's career is probably done after this.
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Nov 23, 2016 20:13
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fishing with the fam posted:The Bears have never drafted higher than 3rd overall. They have a decent shot at the number 2 overall pick this year. So yes, this very well may be the worst Bears team in their nearly 100 years of existence. At the very least, it is the worst Bears team in my lifetime. Their season has been comically bad. Between Jeffries, Cutleries, Freemanies, Longies, Whities, Hoyeries, Fulleries, Floydies, Sittonies, Massies and Goldmanies, John Foxies has had a rough season.
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Nov 23, 2016 20:14
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Alshon is the perfect Dave gettleman receiver: slow, fat, and can't create separation.
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Nov 23, 2016 20:17
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Yeah, the Bears injuries are just nuts:
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Nov 23, 2016 20:17
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White is going to end up such an epic bust
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Nov 23, 2016 20:22
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Going to?
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Nov 23, 2016 20:29
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My team's punter is pretty great ya'll: https://twitter.com/PatMcAfeeShow/status/801166444163694593
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Nov 23, 2016 20:32
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