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Bhaal posted:This is probably a really dumb question but given the gap between poll data and election results, have all poll nerds and statisticians been lined up and shot? Or rather, has a postmortem happened on how virtually every independent model was so wrong? I get that it's an extremely dodgy science but from said science angle has any coherent reason of "how we missed this" arisen? I've heard the shame effect of people who were voting trump but didn't want to say so, and that "hillary's firewall" states weren't scrutinized as much in the final weeks, and that implicit biases wormed their way in somehow perhaps due to this being such an unconventional election. I just don't know of that how much of it is people just floating reasons and how much has turned up as "yeah, this is where we went wrong with our polling model". It turns out that Nate Silver was right. I think the about 80% chance for Hillary to win was as good of a prediction as could have been generated, and Trump just happened to get lucky in his roll of the dice.
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Nov 24, 2016 11:34
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i think there's a genuine chance that likely/registered voter models failed to account for electoral roll purges and voter id laws, which could result in a large discrepancy between polls and final vote. i dunno if it would even be possible to track that in post-mortem poll analysis, though
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Nov 24, 2016 11:36
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Also no one saw Hillary's colossal bungling of GOTV coming.
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Nov 24, 2016 12:06
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Theris posted:Also they close the doors before pushback, and you can't push back without the ground crew. Ground crews are stupidly vulnerable. Every time you hear about something like this or this is a good reminder of that.
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Nov 24, 2016 12:48
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quote:I think we learned in 2000 that no goodwill or favor is gained by the Democrats being the "adults" and accepting defeat gracefully. Republicans themselves often point to attempts at compromise, bipartisanship, and upholding rules like the filibuster as a sign of the weakness that Democrats would have when negotiating on the world stage. That needs to come back to bite them.
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Nov 24, 2016 12:55
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Bhaal posted:This is probably a really dumb question but given the gap between poll data and election results, have all poll nerds and statisticians been lined up and shot? Or rather, has a postmortem happened on how virtually every independent model was so wrong? I get that it's an extremely dodgy science but from said science angle has any coherent reason of "how we missed this" arisen? I've heard the shame effect of people who were voting trump but didn't want to say so, and that "hillary's firewall" states weren't scrutinized as much in the final weeks, and that implicit biases wormed their way in somehow perhaps due to this being such an unconventional election. I just don't know of that how much of it is people just floating reasons and how much has turned up as "yeah, this is where we went wrong with our polling model". It is being studied and the results will likely be released next spring quote:When the polls failed to accurately predict the British general election in May 2015, it took a blue ribbon panel and more than six months of work before the public had the results of a data-driven, independent inquiry in hand. It may take a similar amount of time to get to the bottom of this election as well. The survey industry’s leading standards association, the American Association for Public Opinion Research, already has an ad hoc committee in place to study the election and report back in May (Pew Research Center’s Director of Survey Research Courtney Kennedy is chairing the committee).
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Nov 24, 2016 13:25
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https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/801778852800430080 edit Cup Runneth Over posted:Also no one saw Hillary's colossal bungling of GOTV coming. Bill did. Sir Tonk fucked around with this message at 14:31 on Nov 24, 2016 |
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Nov 24, 2016 14:27
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Sir Tonk posted:Bill did. https://twitter.com/GideonResnick/status/796798471256805377 https://twitter.com/GideonResnick/status/796864560179331072 Indeed.
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Nov 24, 2016 14:49
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Coheed and Camembert posted:https://twitter.com/GideonResnick/status/796798471256805377 Oof, I bet the Bill Rage is real How the hell do you tell Bill Clinton he doesn't know how to win an election?
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Nov 24, 2016 14:52
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http://www.ebay.com/itm/two-donald-trumps-army-premium-grade-satin-red-armbands-3-x17-with-velcro-/182136134030 
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Nov 24, 2016 14:54
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Bill Clinton is super loving smart not like "oh that guys smart" ,but like " that guy is a loving genius" smart. I think people forget that because of how he speaks or carries himself maybe.
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Nov 24, 2016 14:54
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If the data was showing they were fine (it was) then it's hard to blame them for not listening to Bill. The problem is no matter how good your supercomputer and algorithms are, you'll still get lovely results if you feed lovely data into it. And this time around all the data was lovely
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Nov 24, 2016 15:04
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baw posted:If the data was showing they were fine (it was) then it's hard to blame them for not listening to Bill. The problem is no matter how good your supercomputer and algorithms are, you'll still get lovely results if you feed lovely data into it. And this time around all the data was lovely Sure. My problem is that nobody seemed to have the necessary degree of creative thought to think "hey, a few weeks out from E-Day, and Feingold is cratering in Wisconsin, begging us for help. Maybe we should get some people on the ground to re-examine our priors and make sure that we're not missing something here?" Instead they just throw more money at Arizona.
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Nov 24, 2016 15:08
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HannibalBarca posted:Sure. My problem is that nobody seemed to have the necessary degree of creative thought to think "hey, a few weeks out from E-Day, and Feingold is cratering in Wisconsin, begging us for help. Maybe we should get some people on the ground to re-examine our priors and make sure that we're not missing something here?" Instead they just throw more money at Arizona. And loving Omaha. There was a lot of hubris involved and hopefully the next candidate realizes that you don't get a bonus for getting over 270. That and a candidate that hasn't been getting poo poo on by the GOP for decades and things will be fine. Or the dems could just destroy themselves with a circular firing squad of purity tests whichever comes first i guess
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Nov 24, 2016 15:10
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baw posted:If the data was showing they were fine (it was) then it's hard to blame them for not listening to Bill. The problem is no matter how good your supercomputer and algorithms are, you'll still get lovely results if you feed lovely data into it. And this time around all the data was lovely But she's such a good listener 
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Nov 24, 2016 15:12
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how bad is the whole 'Trump will defund NASA' going to be? Is it an empty threat or can we expect the whole weather satellite fleet to start re-entry a week after inauguration?
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Nov 24, 2016 15:19
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Bullfrog posted:Those election machines aren't secure, even if they never connect to the web themselves. So is your theory that there was a conspiracy between hundreds of precinct-level elections officials or that the firmware for machines made by multiple companies across three states was corrupted? I just want to know how deep this goes, man.
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Nov 24, 2016 15:19
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Is our Glenn learning? https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/801785470107656192 https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/801786148519612417
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Nov 24, 2016 15:23
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TheScott2K posted:Oof, I bet the Bill Rage is real Jesus. That's Bill "I was a massively popular president" Clinton telling them IT'S THE ECONOMY, STUPID and those arrogant pricks not listening or even questioning their own data or assumptions. This really was her
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Nov 24, 2016 15:23
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double nine posted:how bad is the whole 'Trump will defund NASA' going to be? Is it an empty threat or can we expect the whole weather satellite fleet to start re-entry a week after inauguration? It puts a lot of weather scientists out of a job, does irreparable damage to research, sets climate monitoring back a few decades and oh yeah, dooms us all. No, but seriously, it's a very bad thing. Crosspost from the climate change thread: Potato Salad posted:Reading posting above, I'll reiterate for those who don't read books / perhaps know English only as a secondary language that losing NASA as a prime contractor for climate research is awful. That's something like a 15 - 20% hit to sponsored projects in higher edu on earth and atmo science with my largest client.
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Nov 24, 2016 15:26
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A Wizard of Goatse posted:the last one is the one I'm talking about, the one that'd be a serious attack on the American political system, and the one that a recount or whatever would address. Airing dirty on the lady who wanted to start a war with them still leaves her having lost the election, which is what the folks yelling red terror don't want to accept, and isn't a terribly strong position to drum up outrage on anyway - they just exposed a sleaze and won the war only she wanted without anyone having to die. A Wizard of Goatse posted:pretty much A Wizard of Goatse posted:I voted for Clinton, actually, but I'm starting to seriously regret it.  is this guy for real?
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Nov 24, 2016 15:43
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Taking bets on a Nazi Germany style brain drain if Trump starts cutting NASA
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Nov 24, 2016 15:45
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WhiskeyJuvenile posted:Is our Glenn learning? Glenn's probably secretly thrilled that Trump got elected - now he's going to have so much corruption to write about for the next 4 to 8 years.
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Nov 24, 2016 16:08
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The Jill Stein recount will uncovee nothing. Accept 8 years of Trump grabbing you by the pussy already. The delusion is embarrasing.
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Nov 24, 2016 16:11
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DaveWoo posted:Glenn's probably secretly thrilled that Trump got elected - now he's going to have so much corruption to write about for the next 4 to 8 years. Yeah I'm sure the gay guy who had to relocate to Brazil in order to escape discrimination only to see his new home being destroyed by one of the most corrupt bunches of assholes ever really wants Trump to be elected, despite saying multiple times in print and on air that Trump was the biggest danger in these elections jfc
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Nov 24, 2016 16:17
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Ya'll spend weeks complaining that the Dems are rolling over and then whine when the Greens and a bunch of Clinton voters try to challenge numbers in states she lost. What could the Dems possibly do at the end of November that would make y'all happy? Mass walkout of Congress? Go on MtP and call Trump a Nazi?
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Nov 24, 2016 16:17
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Sir Tonk posted:Ya'll spend weeks complaining that the Dems are rolling over and then whine when the Greens and a bunch of Clinton voters try to challenge numbers in states she lost. Yeah we have to grab straws at this point to stop Trump from becoming president. Joementum posted:So is your theory that there was a conspiracy between hundreds of precinct-level elections officials or that the firmware for machines made by multiple companies across three states was corrupted? Not that I disagree at all with you, but what's with the cynicism during this election cycle? This question isn't so much towards you but to a lot of other leftists that didn't vote. That's exactly what the Republicans want, cynicism is a tool of the Right. Confounding Factor fucked around with this message at 16:28 on Nov 24, 2016 |
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Nov 24, 2016 16:26
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Confounding Factor posted:Not that I disagree at all with you, but what's with the cynicism during this election cycle? This question isn't so much towards you but to a lot of other leftists that didn't vote. That's exactly what the Republicans want, cynicism is a tool of the Right. He's from Vermont. Never really got over the primary.
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Nov 24, 2016 16:30
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Sir Tonk posted:Ya'll spend weeks complaining that the Dems are rolling over and then whine when the Greens and a bunch of Clinton voters try to challenge numbers in states she lost. Start putting the right people at the helm (Ellison is a good start), demonstrate that you've learned the right lessons from this mess, start organizing political resistance to what's ahead of us, plan for a future in which the Dems are actually a progressive party. The Obama people blocking Ellison for fear that the radicals are taking over oh God is bullshit, and contesting an election that was stolen by legal means of voter suppression (thanks Roberts you gently caress) shows that they still think they deserved to win and it was the big meanie Trump or maybe Russia or Wikileaks that stole their toys rather than their own idiocy.
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Nov 24, 2016 16:32
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Sir Tonk posted:Ya'll spend weeks complaining that the Dems are rolling over and then whine when the Greens and a bunch of Clinton voters try to challenge numbers in states she lost. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NnQ_Pn_B34k&t=96s
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Nov 24, 2016 16:32
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Confounding Factor posted:Not that I disagree at all with you, but what's with the cynicism during this election cycle? This question isn't so much towards you but to a lot of other leftists that didn't vote. That's exactly what the Republicans want, cynicism is a tool of the Right. I don't think making up conspiracy theories is productive, in fact, it's quite cynical, especially from people who are complaining about fake news and were upset that Trump said he might not accept the results of the election. (Also, I voted.)
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Nov 24, 2016 16:33
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Covok posted:The Jill Stein recount will uncovee nothing. Accept 8 years of Trump grabbing you by the pussy already. The delusion is embarrasing. It's worth doing anyway I think just for the data questions. We need to know the process was problem free.
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Nov 24, 2016 16:36
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:It's worth doing anyway I think just for the data questions. We need to know the process was problem free.
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Nov 24, 2016 16:46
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https://twitter.com/justabloodygame/status/801625834213642240
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Nov 24, 2016 16:47
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also, https://twitter.com/Khanoisseur/status/801727843033956352
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Nov 24, 2016 16:48
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Very interesting that the neo-nazi thought that the "N" in NAACP stood for black people
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Nov 24, 2016 16:51
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Joementum posted:So is your theory that there was a conspiracy between hundreds of precinct-level elections officials or that the firmware for machines made by multiple companies across three states was corrupted? it doesn't have to be precinct-level elections officials, researchers have shown that anyone with the knowhow (including voters) can hack these machines. they're very insecure https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ss2fPvXBd7Y
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Nov 24, 2016 16:55
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HorseRenoir posted:Very interesting that the neo-nazi thought that the "N" in NAACP stood for black people Oh my god.
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Nov 24, 2016 16:57
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I thought that the circus would wind down after crazy year of election, but it seems like it's just getting started.
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Nov 24, 2016 17:01
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Condiv posted:it doesn't have to be precinct-level elections officials, researchers have shown that anyone with the knowhow (including voters) can hack these machines. they're very insecure That's an electronic voting machine, which is used in parts of Pennsylvania and not used at all in Wisconsin or Michigan which both use scantron machines with paper ballots. This would also require a conspiracy of hundreds of voters in multiple states with unobserved access to the machines, just to be clear about what you're alleging here.
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Nov 24, 2016 17:02
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