|
HS selvitti, mikä on hallituksen leikkauspolitiikkaan vaikuttava kiistelty koneäly Kooma – luotetaanko siihen liikaa? Kumpa koko hallitus vaipuis koomaan. It seems that their model assumes that people are perfectly rational beings and if they have huge sack of money, they'll hide it in sukanvarteen in fear of taxes. Or possibly they are thinking of corporations when they are talking about people.
|
#
?
Nov 20, 2016 12:40
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 23, 2024 23:33 |
|
|
Corporations are people, my friend!
|
|
#
?
Nov 20, 2016 13:05
|
|
|
throw to first drat IT posted:HS selvitti, mikä on hallituksen leikkauspolitiikkaan vaikuttava kiistelty koneäly Kooma – luotetaanko siihen liikaa? The numbers never lie. The fact that we have an engineer as PM will mean they'll follow the computer charts to their logical ends. Mikään ei ole niin viisas kuin insinööri.
|
|
#
?
Nov 20, 2016 17:10
|
|
|
Suddenly I understand so much about the Finnish economic debate... It turns out it's all based on a model that doesn't include the financial sector (neo-keynesian models) and heavily leans on ideological bullshit that has never manifested outside rightwingers' dreams (Ricardian equivalence, the idea that government deficit makes people save since they start expecting future tax increases and vice versa). Ricardian equivalence is the reason why they say the positive effect of deficit spending disappears in a couple of years (the people's increasing saving rates have offset the increase in their incomes). It's also the reason why austerity works (if you just austere hard enough, people eventually start spending more in expectation of falling taxes despite their incomes). Those AIs are a manifestation of economist groupthink. It could be way worse, but it pisses me off that these models are just close enough to reality that they can be effectively used to stifle discussion. And they refuse to die in the face of contractual evidence, since "We knew all along these models are imperfect and shouldn't be used literally. Except when someone suggests ideologically improper solutions to problems." uncop fucked around with this message at 07:04 on Nov 21, 2016 |
|
#
?
Nov 21, 2016 07:00
|
|
|
uncop posted:economist groupthink Also known as economics which, as everyone besides politicians and economists knows, is not a science.
|
|
#
?
Nov 21, 2016 12:05
|
|
|
http://www.iltasanomat.fi/taloussanomat/art-2000004026612.html Speaking of terrible ideas forced on populations by economists.
|
|
#
?
Nov 21, 2016 12:48
|
|
|
More by overly optimistic politicians than economists tbf
|
|
#
?
Nov 21, 2016 15:52
|
|
|
Herman Merman posted:More by overly optimistic politicians than economists tbf Iirc most respected economists said euro is bad idea back in the day
|
|
#
?
Nov 21, 2016 18:07
|
|
|
Fushigi Yuugi fansub posted:respected economists Unless they are multi-billionaires, they were just guessing like they do about everything to do with economies. (It's a well-established fact that there are always just as many prominent economists saying the exact opposite of what actually ends up happening will happen. They just don't like to advertise the fact.)
|
|
#
?
Nov 21, 2016 18:30
|
|
|
yes it's impossible to tell the future but you can make pretty good guesses based on previous history
|
|
#
?
Nov 21, 2016 20:29
|
|
|
Fushigi Yuugi fansub posted:yes it's impossible to tell the future but you can make pretty good guesses based on previous history If only economists would acknowledge that "previous history" exists, instead of the usual rational actor fiction they usually go for.
|
|
#
?
Nov 21, 2016 21:42
|
|
|
Fushigi Yuugi fansub posted:yes it's impossible to tell the future but you can make pretty good guesses based on previous history Euro is good / Euro is bad is a binary question and a guess where there's a 50/60 chance of getting it right is absolutely worthless.
|
|
#
?
Nov 21, 2016 21:45
|
|
|
uncop posted:And they refuse to die in the face of contractual evidence, since "We knew all along these models are imperfect and shouldn't be used literally. Except when someone suggests ideologically improper solutions to problems." "Well we just haven't done socialism the right way, so glargh blargh titityy I am a communist, CHE GUEVARA!" "It has never worked, anywhere, not in the modern age, not in the past?" "But we should try it the RIGHT way, you are a racist and support hitler!!!11 I want to do communism!!" "Seems like humans don't behave in this manner..." "UR A RIGHT WINGAR!!!1" edit: not saying uncop is one of these guys, but just pick any political thread in D&D and go and suggest the above 
|
|
#
?
Nov 21, 2016 21:58
|
|
|
throw to first drat IT posted:HS selvitti, mikä on hallituksen leikkauspolitiikkaan vaikuttava kiistelty koneäly Kooma – luotetaanko siihen liikaa? They are thinking of people who own corporations 
|
|
#
?
Nov 22, 2016 00:23
|
|
|
Ligur posted:A tax tax return is nice in a year or so, but it doesn't help that much right now if you have a pile of bills and the money is tight, like it is for more than few people these days (gently caress living in Helsinki, then again, gently caress living anywhere else because jobs). In theory I should've paid that back when I got money money from palkkaturva insurance but social services never sent me a bill vOv
|
|
#
?
Nov 22, 2016 12:35
|
|
|
uncop posted:Suddenly I understand so much about the Finnish economic debate... It turns out it's all based on a model that doesn't include the financial sector (neo-keynesian models) and heavily leans on ideological bullshit that has never manifested outside rightwingers' dreams (Ricardian equivalence, the idea that government deficit makes people save since they start expecting future tax increases and vice versa). Ricardian equivalence is the reason why they say the positive effect of deficit spending disappears in a couple of years (the people's increasing saving rates have offset the increase in their incomes). It's also the reason why austerity works (if you just austere hard enough, people eventually start spending more in expectation of falling taxes despite their incomes). Stop arguing against a strawman. No one is using these models literally or assuming that you have 100% Ricardian equivalence but when you have people as financially illiterate as FinPol goons saying things like "I can't trust the Finnish pension system to cover my pension so I will save on my own" it's completely retarded to ignore it altogether. The explanation given in the article is also almost a perfect description of what happened in Finland after our 2009 stimulus: quote:Hinnat lähtevät nousuun, koska julkisten menojen lisääminen nostaa kokonaiskysyntää. Työn verotusta kiristetään kahdella miljardilla, joten työntekijät vaativat lisää palkkaa ja hinnat nousevat entisestään. Tämä johtaa siihen, että nettovienti supistuu ja investoinnit vähenevät. Also the goon flipflopping between "tax evasion is a huge problem" and "people respond to incentives? lol, too much effort, no one bothers" is pretty funny. quote:”Talous on monimutkainen kokonaisuus. Mallit ovat yksinkertaistuksia todellisuudesta”, Juha Kilponen sanoo. Hän on Suomen Pankin rahapolitiikka- ja tutkimusosaston ennustetoimiston päällikkö. Hän vastaa Ainosta. Ryhmään kuuluvat lisäksi Meri Obstbaum, Mikko Sariola ja Hannu Viertola. Fushigi Yuugi fansub posted:Iirc most respected economists said euro is bad idea back in the day
|
|
#
?
Nov 22, 2016 12:51
|
|
|
Geriatric Pirate posted:Stop arguing against a strawman. No one is using these models literally or assuming that you have 100% Ricardian equivalence but when you have people as financially illiterate as FinPol goons saying things like "I can't trust the Finnish pension system to cover my pension so I will save on my own" it's completely retarded to ignore it altogether. The explanation given in the article is also almost a perfect description of what happened in Finland after our 2009 stimulus: What actually happened after 2009 was the euro crisis and the end of European stimulus spending. The stimulus wasn't long enough to have a significant positive effect on private spending, so the economy had to be responding to the new private fears as well as reductions in government spending here and in some of our trading partners. You have to cherrypick statistics pretty hard to find a RE effect anywhere in there. EDIT: I'm fully aware that none of our trading partners literally reduced spending, what they did was not keep up the deficit ratio until the euro crisis kicked it right back up through GDP reduction and automatic stabilizers. uncop fucked around with this message at 17:52 on Nov 22, 2016 |
|
#
?
Nov 22, 2016 17:41
|
|
|
Convicted rapist Matti Putkonen (pers) successfully defunded wind power in Finland based on "Exploding Bat Syndrome" http://www.hs.fi/talous/a1479878521283
|
|
#
?
Nov 23, 2016 17:24
|
|
|
Friendly reminder that tonight we have the A2 Yksinäisyysilta, where a bunch of snobby white people are gonna discuss the life of your average finngoon!
|
|
#
?
Nov 23, 2016 17:39
|
|
|
Vesi posted:Convicted rapist Matti Putkonen (pers) successfully defunded wind power in Finland based on "Exploding Bat Syndrome" Oh that rascally Matti "I literally raped someone" Putkonen.
|
|
#
?
Nov 23, 2016 17:46
|
|
|
Kahdeksan vitun vuotta, mitä vitun paviaaneja siellä penkillä istuu. Jos joku tietää pääseekö se puolessa välissä ehdonalaiseen, älkää kertoko, en halua tietää. Ainoa vitun kasi mikä siinä tuomiossa olis saanu olla ois kahdeksan nappia otsaan.
|
|
#
?
Nov 23, 2016 22:14
|
|
|
throw to first drat IT posted:Kahdeksan vitun vuotta, mitä vitun paviaaneja siellä penkillä istuu. Jos joku tietää pääseekö se puolessa välissä ehdonalaiseen, älkää kertoko, en halua tietää. Eikö ensikertalainen istu kolmasosan? Tästä ei kyllä tainnut saada paljousalennusta.
|
|
#
?
Nov 23, 2016 22:39
|
|
|
http://www.hs.fi/kotimaa/a1479960874253?ref=hs-etusivub-luetuimmat-#10 I don't know, this government has made me feel there should be like some official ceremony where every MP is sat in front of a computer, made to read the constitution of the country they were just elected to govern and then there would be a quiz afterwards. They don't get to leave the room until they get it right.
|
|
#
?
Nov 24, 2016 16:30
|
|
|
don't be silly, that's what civil servants are paid for
|
|
#
?
Nov 24, 2016 16:36
|
|
|
http://suomenkuvalehti.fi/jutut/kot...5677-59cb4157-4 SSS ilmeisesti todella aikoo pakottaa työttömät tekemään vapaaehtoistyötä ja valitsi Kelan johtajankin tämä ajatus mielessään. Voisiko joku toimittaja kysyä näiltä urpoilta myöntävätkö he tälläisen temppuilun kasvattavan valtion menoja?
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2016 09:28
|
|
|
a moron posted:Ja miksi ylipäätään ylläpidämme järjestelmää, joka maksaa ihmiselle olemisesta? Voisiko vaihtoehto olla, että maksaisimmekin osallisuudesta? Hmm, mitä jos maksaisimme palkkaa työstä? Olisiko siinä tarpeeksi innovatiivinen ajatus?
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2016 09:41
|
|
|
Darkest Auer posted:Hmm, mitä jos maksaisimme palkkaa työstä? Olisiko siinä tarpeeksi innovatiivinen ajatus? Vain Työtä Luovat korporaatiokommunistit voivat maksaa palkkaa oikeasta Työstä, kaikki muu on keynesiläistä harhaoppia. MEE TÖIHIN Vitun pummit saatana. TÖIHIN Ai joo, voitaisko yksityistää KELA ja laittaa työttömät kasaamaan älypuhelimia hikipajoissa palkatta? Nokia 2.0 innovoi Suomen talousahdingosta!
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2016 10:06
|
|
|
I love all the different ways politicians have invented for the sentence "We're trying to figure out how to make people work without paying them an actual wage." There are like five on that article alone.
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2016 19:00
|
|
|
DarkCrawler posted:I love all the different ways politicians have invented for the sentence "We're trying to figure out how to make people work without paying them an actual wage." There are like five on that article alone. "Miten saamme kannustinloukut pois? Ja miksi ylipäätään ylläpidämme järjestelmää, joka maksaa ihmiselle olemisesta? Voisiko vaihtoehto olla, että maksaisimmekin osallisuudesta?"
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2016 21:22
|
|
|
uncop posted:What actually happened after 2009 was the euro crisis and the end of European stimulus spending. The stimulus wasn't long enough to have a significant positive effect on private spending, so the economy had to be responding to the new private fears as well as reductions in government spending here and in some of our trading partners. You have to cherrypick statistics pretty hard to find a RE effect anywhere in there. Yes, sure, there were other things that happened as well so it's difficult to make any causal statements, which is why microfoundations models are used... I mean you can argue the evidence for ages on this (did Germany see a similar drop in exports etc?) And you don't have to cherrypick to find evidence for (at least partial) RE in different settings. There are many studies with evidence going both ways, suggesting that people are at least partially accounting for future tax increases etc. (as we even see in this thread)
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2016 21:29
|
|
|
Geriatric Pirate posted:We don't have enough money to pay people just for existing I think you'll find that that is basically the point of a social democratic system, so that people don't have to beg and starve on the streets.
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2016 22:41
|
|
|
Counterpoint: we actually do have enough money to pay people just for existing.
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2016 23:42
|
|
|
Jerry Cotton posted:Counterpoint: we actually do have enough money to pay people just for existing. That's right. We call them politicians. 
|
|
#
?
Nov 28, 2016 00:30
|
|
|
Geriatric Pirate posted:We don't have enough money to pay people just for existing (or more accurately, to pay them what they seem to want to be paid) You're right, we don't. Which is why it's so inconvenient the disabled, unemployed and retired don't just vanish when they're not needed, and instead continue needing food and healthcare.
|
|
#
?
Nov 28, 2016 02:17
|
|
|
endlessmonotony posted:You're right, we don't. And at the same time it's so inconvenient we could use way more labor, for, say, food production, care of the elderly, cleaning public spaces and maintaining/building infrastructure - for example, there's now been a seven-year backlog of new light traffic routes that need to be constructed near major cities. And we have plenty of people without work. I bet the solution is to subsidize employers for corporations in ways such as rent support so that Finland is a more attractive investment target for foreign investments, which we can tax and then when we're done paying for fancy buffets for the executives and the politicians who made this miracle happen we can use the remaining money to pay for the rent support and maybe even have some left over for the road-building. And the food problem is solved by importing it from the cheapest bidder. Capitalism works!
|
|
#
?
Nov 28, 2016 02:25
|
|
|
endlessmonotony posted:And at the same time it's so inconvenient we could use way more labor, for, say, food production, care of the elderly, cleaning public spaces and maintaining/building infrastructure - for example, there's now been a seven-year backlog of new light traffic routes that need to be constructed near major cities. And we have plenty of people without work. And even if the plan doesn't work, we tried our best and must take new debts to solve the increasing public funding crisis from all the rent support and healthcare for the subsidized employees, which leads to us cutting more from the weakest and selling more government property, but we all need to sacrifice, whether it's replacing beef with oatmeal five days a week, as it is for the poor, or our third daily bottle of champagne as it is for the executives and politicians. At the same time we must blame the unemployed for their sheer audacity not to be employed. It's not like there's work to do, except all that infrastructure work we'll get to when we have the tax funds, but first we got to pay off the debts that were accumulated as a result of our brave, brave attempts to fix the problem. It's not like the infrastructure work or the healthcare work or even the food production would lower costs in the long run, even if all available data clearly shows it would. It's cheaper to keep people unemployed and in the soup line.
|
|
#
?
Nov 28, 2016 02:30
|
|
|
*companies lay off thousands of workers, while technology and globalisation continue to displace jobs for foreseeable future* government officials: people are too lazy and need to accept work 
|
|
#
?
Nov 28, 2016 02:53
|
|
|
Well, the theory of perfect competition says that markets always clear at the right price, so there can only be 2 reasons for unemployment: Either the job market isn't free enough or the unemployed aren't truly in the job market due to laziness or illness or something. But its ok, the market-clearing means that free markets will provide full employment if we let employers not pay wages, avoid unions ("it's not a job, it doesn't pay a wage") and bully the unemployed until they either work for the sake of having work or quit pretending theyre looking for jobs. The unemployed should also travel at the drop of a hat with no consideration of their social lives, because that's the way products in free markets act!
|
|
#
?
Nov 28, 2016 05:40
|
|
|
Darkest Auer posted:I think you'll find that that is basically the point of a social democratic system, so that people don't have to beg and starve on the streets. They don't have to beg or starve. They have to do a little bit of work. You know, the kind of thing someone has to do so that we can all live in one of the wealthiest countries on earth? endlessmonotony posted:And at the same time it's so inconvenient we could use way more labor, for, say, food production, care of the elderly, cleaning public spaces and maintaining/building infrastructure - for example, there's now been a seven-year backlog of new light traffic routes that need to be constructed near major cities. And we have plenty of people without work. Look if your solution is to have the unemployed work temporarily for their unemployment benefits, I'm all for that. If your solution is some sort of system where the state creates permanent well-paying jobs in unproductive sectors such as food production (which makes so little sense in Finland) so that the 20% of people who pay for everything here get to subsidize yet another group (and remove their incentive to seek out actually productive work) at the expense of the poorest people in the world, that's retarded. uncop posted:Well, the theory of perfect competition says that markets always clear at the right price, so there can only be 2 reasons for unemployment: Either the job market isn't free enough or the unemployed aren't truly in the job market due to laziness or illness or something. Ok, great second strawman, but once again it has absolutely nothing to do with having workers do voluntary/unpaid work/training while unemployed
|
|
#
?
Nov 28, 2016 11:38
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 23, 2024 23:33 |
|
|
Geriatric Pirate posted:We don't have enough money to pay people just for existing (or more accurately, to pay them what they seem to want to be paid) Pilipalitöiden järjestäminen ja työttömien valvominen kasvattaa valtion menoja. Jos ei ole rahaa nykyjärjestelmään, niin miten sitä riittää osallistamisjärjestelmän luomiseen?
|
|
#
?
Nov 28, 2016 14:48
|
|