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Krispy Kareem posted:It depends on how you're employing them. Building highways and dams? Good. Making millions of tons of steel that no one needs or worse, people use to erect unwanted buildings? Not good. The steel part especially I think is the one that is running on fumes here. The international steel market has been hitting bottom quotas ever since the 2008 recession in terms of price and mostly that's because Chinese steel is competing on what I can only dub as Uber terms. They can provide the same product at a vastly cheaper price by simply not making any profit. So while steel mills have been getting decommissioned all across the world the Chinese mills keep on floating by absorbing more state loans.
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Nov 7, 2016 08:56
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MiddleOne posted:The steel part especially I think is the one that is running on fumes here. The international steel market has been hitting bottom quotas ever since the 2008 recession in terms of price and mostly that's because Chinese steel is competing on what I can only dub as Uber terms. They can provide the same product at a vastly cheaper price by simply not making any profit. So while steel mills have been getting decommissioned all across the world the Chinese mills keep on floating by absorbing more state loans. If you see things from the eyes of the Chinese leadership this makes sense (at least to some extent), they know what happened when SOEs were closed en masse in the former Soviet Union. Those plants are obviously overproducing but the Chinese government not only doesn't want to give up its growth objectives, it fears massive layoffs and their aftereffects. Granted, alternatively you could see Chinese steel plants as a WPA or "digging and filling holes program" it keeps people employed and diverts them from rioting in the streets.
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Nov 7, 2016 09:15
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Surprising how we haven't updated this since before Trump's election. When do you guys think the economy there will begin to really implode? Next year? 2018? Later?
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Nov 30, 2016 08:19
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Grouchio posted:Surprising how we haven't updated this since before Trump's election. When do you guys think the economy there will begin to really implode? Next year? 2018? Later? The macroeconomic cycle isn't that correlated to presidential policy. We're gonna have a recession sooner or later but not as some sort of reaction to trump necessarily.
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Nov 30, 2016 08:27
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Grouchio posted:Surprising how we haven't updated this since before Trump's election. When do you guys think the economy there will begin to really implode? Next year? 2018? Later? The literal second that Trump decides to deliver on his tariff promises.
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Nov 30, 2016 08:28
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Grouchio posted:Surprising how we haven't updated this since before Trump's election. When do you guys think the economy there will begin to really implode? Next year? 2018? Later? Nine seconds after Trump declares them a currency manipulator.
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Nov 30, 2016 08:39
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Excuse me but I have good reason to suspect that Trump is bringing back the gold standard. How do you crash economy backed by purestrain gold? You can't, checkmate globalists 
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Nov 30, 2016 10:54
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We will see some noise if /pol/ or Reddit ever actually learn that the TPP isn't a Chinese NAFTA, but rather an exclusionary deal with other eastern nations. That would be presuming any information can make it past source selection at this point.
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Nov 30, 2016 13:03
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Accretionist posted:gigatons. When talking about bulk commodities there are a bunch of "tons" LT, long tons, ST, short tons, and MT, metric tons. MT are probably what you are talking about. A way to visualize these large quantities is to think in Panamax bulk carriers, which would carry bergen 60,000 and 80,000 MT a trip depending on the draft restrictions in the port of discharge.
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Nov 30, 2016 18:17
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MiddleOne posted:They can provide the same product at a vastly cheaper price by simply not making any profit. So while steel mills have been getting decommissioned all across the world the Chinese mills keep on floating by absorbing more state loans. There is still a noticeable quality difference in the steel from some regions of China It's really visible in shipping. Vessel's made of Chinese steel tend to corrode and age noticeably faster. 2-3 year old vessels will often look like 10 year old vessels.
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Nov 30, 2016 18:25
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BrandorKP posted:There is still a noticeable quality difference in the steel from some regions of China It's really visible in shipping. Vessel's made of Chinese steel tend to corrode and age noticeably faster. 2-3 year old vessels will often look like 10 year old vessels. I think he meant the same product as in a vessel with the same capacity. Even if it's of a vastly lower quality this isn't immediately apparent and the true additional costs usually take a a decade or two to really be felt. Especially as shipping generally has been contracting groups needing to replace old fleet will be very conscious of short term savings that will hopefully be made up for with an industry uptick a few years down the line.
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Dec 1, 2016 00:18
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throw to first drat IT posted:Excuse me but I have good reason to suspect that Trump is bringing back the gold standard. How do you crash economy backed by purestrain gold? You can't, checkmate globalists I will personally beat you to death with economics textbooks.
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Dec 1, 2016 00:24
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MrNemo posted:Especially as shipping generally has been contracting groups needing to replace old fleet will be very conscious of short term savings that will hopefully be made up for with an industry uptick a few years down the line. Right now there is enormous over capacity in both container and bulk vessels. On the bulk side demand had fallen off, because of China actually. On the container side economies of scale are driving a race to ever larger vessels, in the midst of receding international trade. All the lines are in trouble (eg. Hanjin). Even the big lines are being tested right now by low freight rates. On the bulk side, gently caress, they are hurting bare bones charters are still really low. Basically it's not the time to build our buy new vessels. Everybody is doing it anyway. Welp.
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Dec 1, 2016 04:28
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GreyjoyBastard posted:I will personally beat you to death with economics textbooks. Are you ready for a lil jumpscare? What if steel mills are just the first area where the state creates basically a global monopoly? What if what's next is economics textbooks made in china?
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Dec 1, 2016 04:32
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The impending or currently happening but being covered by currency fuckery explosion of the Chinese bubble is unrelated to Trump so I don't think it matters much. A trade war might hasten the end but the bubble's going to burst some day regardless.
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Dec 1, 2016 04:36
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As a reminder, trumps proposed 35% blanket tariff on China products would most often not change the price or lower the price. So if he actually got it in, many Chinese things get more attractive to import.
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Dec 1, 2016 05:58
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fishmech posted:As a reminder, trumps proposed 35% blanket tariff on China products would most often not change the price or lower the price. So if he actually got it in, many Chinese things get more attractive to import. Now you're going to have to elaborate. 
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Dec 1, 2016 06:24
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Yeah, you're going to have explain how going from most favored to blanket 35% would result in that.
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Dec 1, 2016 06:38
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The Yuan may be crashing.
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Dec 5, 2016 23:03
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.......... That was sooner than I expected.
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Dec 5, 2016 23:05
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that rate is correct according to the GBS chinar thread. someone checked with XE and they confirmed. Mr. Nice! fucked around with this message at 23:09 on Dec 5, 2016 |
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Dec 5, 2016 23:07
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It's still possible that there's a glitch from the upstream providors but yes XE apparently double checked and yep that's what they're getting
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Dec 5, 2016 23:12
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I wonder if it is a response to Trump, a way to under cut the USD before he takes office. Remember that the RMB trades in a highly regulated band. I guess a trade war has to start somewhere. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 23:19 on Dec 5, 2016 |
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Dec 5, 2016 23:15
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Ardennes posted:I wonder if it is a response to Trump, a way to under cut the USD before he takes office. Remember that the RMB trades in a highly regulated band. There was a much smaller, but similarly-shaped bump in August 10 of 2015. That was explicit currency devaluing.
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Dec 5, 2016 23:35
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twerking on the railroad posted:There was a much smaller, but similarly-shaped bump in August 10 of 2015. That was explicit currency devaluing. If they're doing this they'd better tell everyone now before the panic sets in.
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Dec 5, 2016 23:35
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Have any other markets reacted to this?
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Dec 5, 2016 23:36
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Bip Roberts posted:Have any other markets reacted to this? Still media silence on this; all we have to go on at the moment is that exchange rate reading and a tweet from a China podcast, so I'm still skeptical at the moment. Edit: Are any exchanges even open right now? Edit 2: Tokyo opens at 9 AM, Hong Kong at 9:30 AM local time Definitely seems like the best time of the day to intentionally gently caress with the RMB Fojar38 fucked around with this message at 23:40 on Dec 5, 2016 |
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Dec 5, 2016 23:37
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Fojar38 posted:Edit: Are any exchanges even open right now? Only New Zealand at this moment.
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Dec 5, 2016 23:39
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Could be one of those flash crashes.
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Dec 5, 2016 23:41
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Fojar38 posted:If they're doing this they'd better tell everyone now before the panic sets in. Right. Well that was a jump from 6.2 to 6.4 or about 3 percent. Right now it's 9 percent.
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Dec 5, 2016 23:41
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Important to remember that this is all still in the "unconfirmed reports" stage and this could all be a false alarm from a glitch in the upstream providers. Some people on reddit (again, at that early stage) said that the exchange rate the banks are giving them are still 6.8
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Dec 5, 2016 23:48
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Any updates?
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Dec 5, 2016 23:50
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namaste faggots posted:Any updates? We probably won't get any until either the Chinese government says they intentionally hosed with the currency, XE confirms it was a mistake and corrects the reading, or the Tokyo exchanges open in an hour.
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Dec 5, 2016 23:52
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https://twitter.com/casualsophist/status/805904230796103681 Might just be ICAP?
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Dec 5, 2016 23:54
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They sure picked a helluva day to gently caress this up
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Dec 5, 2016 23:56
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namaste faggots posted:They sure picked a helluva day to gently caress this up
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Dec 6, 2016 00:05
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Grouchio posted:How so? If it turns out this is just ICAP punching in the wrong data by accident they did it almost simultaneously with US-China relations looking like they're about to sour.
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Dec 6, 2016 00:06
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Grouchio posted:How so? And the whole Italian referendum
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Dec 6, 2016 00:07
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ICAP has a Singapore branch and apparently Singapore is usually the first to move on the RMB so who the gently caress knows.
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Dec 6, 2016 00:14
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The Euro, Pound, and Yen all show the same pattern regarding the RMB exchange rate
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Dec 6, 2016 00:28
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