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Spacebump posted:That was kneecapped at the very end by the FBI releasing a letter. Both campaign data teams have cited the last Comey letter as when their numbers started changing in favor of Trump. Oh, James Comey's letter absolutely hosed her and probably accounted for as much as a 0.5%-1.0% difference in voter participation/totals in a lot of states. My point is that against someone like Donald Trump it shouldn't even have been that loving close. But it was, even though Clinton and co. just blithely assumed their invulnerability in WI/MI/PA. WHOOPS
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Dec 1, 2016 00:02
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Guys, there is a thread for all of this circular firing squad on this very forum called So What Happened.
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Dec 1, 2016 00:02
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:I wonder if Hillary will reach a 3 million vote lead in the popular vote. Jesus Christ that's nuts. How the hell does that even work
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Dec 1, 2016 00:03
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anti_strunt posted:How the hell does that even work The Electoral College is bad.
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Dec 1, 2016 00:03
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a shameful boehner posted:You asked for a roadmap, Bernie's campaign epitomized how the Democrats need to run future campaigns to win. Didn't want this to get swallowed, but yes this is 100% what I was asking and am enthusiastic about...except it still doesn't solve the messaging problem. Something that I highly doubt is going to be solved if all everyone is doing is getting into slapfights over who's the real leftist or who's a neoliberal or whatever. And again, Bernie's campaign unfortunately didn't win so it's going to be hard for others to look at it and go "that's what we need", because it failed in the face of an established personality. Something that Trump is going to be, something that several Republicans (and even some Democrats) will be when their seats are up for contention at all levels of government. a shameful boehner posted:“For every blue-collar Democrat we lose in western Pennsylvania, we will pick up two moderate Republicans in the suburbs in Philadelphia, and you can repeat that in Ohio and Illinois and Wisconsin.” Chuck Schumer being the absolute worst yet still supporting Keith Ellison is so confusing other than he's probably doing it to save his own hide.
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Dec 1, 2016 00:03
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a shameful boehner posted:I complained about her but still voted for her. That was dumb. foobardog posted:No, I guarantee you this level of entitlement is part of why Clinton lost. This is "complaining about dear leader emboldens our enemies" nonsense. It's more like "repeating the same poo poo about her being a wall street whore is depressing democratic turnout"
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Dec 1, 2016 00:03
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I visit the country and it feels like a zombie apocalyse. Meanwhile Los Angeles has more traffic than Traffico Fiesta Heaven 24/7 as everyone is moving the gently caress out of nowhere into the cities.Angry_Ed posted:Bernie's campaign didn't win so it's going to be hard for others to look at it and go "that's what we need", because it failed in the face of an established personality. Bernie didn't win because it was 'her turn' and the Democrats didn't want to mess around with one of their most powerful members and she was entrenched in the party as one could possibly get. You're strangely attempting to simplify what happened to Bernie No Win, Bernie Bad. Buckwheat Sings fucked around with this message at 00:06 on Dec 1, 2016 |
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Dec 1, 2016 00:04
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Inferior Third Season posted:No, I don't remember that. here's chuck schumer saying p much that: quote:For every blue-collar Democrat we lose in western Pennsylvania, we will pick up two moderate Republicans in the suburbs in Philadelphia, and you can repeat that in Ohio and Illinois and Wisconsin. hillfolk were saying it on here too if you care to look at some of the old c-spam threads
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Dec 1, 2016 00:04
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Angry_Ed posted:Chuck Schumer being the absolute worst yet still supporting Keith Ellison is so confusing other than he's probably doing it to save his own hide. turns out the spineless cowards can be bent leftwards under even the smallest amount of pressure
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Dec 1, 2016 00:05
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:The Electoral College is bad. Well, obviously, but a margin that large has to be unprecedented. I know how the states went, mostly, but where did most of those several million wasted votes come from?
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Dec 1, 2016 00:07
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Business Gorillas posted:turns out the spineless cowards can be bent leftwards under even the smallest amount of pressure i called that fucker's office three or four times to talk about ellison, so i'd like to think it was me.
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Dec 1, 2016 00:07
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a shameful boehner posted:“For every blue-collar Democrat we lose in western Pennsylvania, we will pick up two moderate Republicans in the suburbs in Philadelphia, and you can repeat that in Ohio and Illinois and Wisconsin.” It's quite possible that some moderate republicans didn't cross over because everyone thought hillary had the election in the bag and they didn't want to give her some massive mandate. The flawed polling and narrative leading up to the election affected both Clinton's strategy and voter behavior.
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Dec 1, 2016 00:07
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anti_strunt posted:Well, obviously, but a margin that large has to be unprecedented. I know how the states went, mostly, but where did most of those several million wasted votes come from? California mostly e: basically the only places Clinton outperformed Obama were in California and a handful of Republican states like Kansas (entirely due to Brownback) where she narrowed the margin, whereas Trump outperformed Romney in every single swing state because Clinton lost working class whites harder than Walter loving Mondale rscott fucked around with this message at 00:10 on Dec 1, 2016 |
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Dec 1, 2016 00:08
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:I wonder if Hillary will reach a 3 million vote lead in the popular vote. Jesus Christ that's nuts. Dave Wasserman (the Cook Political Report guy) is estimating it'll be between 2.5 and 2.7 million (about 2%) once all the votes are counted.
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Dec 1, 2016 00:08
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Ooooh great great great great! FBI to gain expanded hacking powers as Senate effort to block fails quote:Democratic Senator Ron Wyden attempted three times to delay the changes, which will take effect on Thursday and allow U.S. judges will be able to issue search warrants that give the FBI the authority to remotely access computers in any jurisdiction, potentially even overseas. His efforts were blocked by Senator John Cornyn of Texas, the Senate's second-ranking Republican.
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Dec 1, 2016 00:08
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farraday posted:Because over 7 million people voted for third parties. How about you go look at the numbers instead of doing napkin math and proclaiming victory. that's why i asked how he was coming to his figures. also, i'd be very surprised if increased third party turnout was where the majority of voter population growth went to this election
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Dec 1, 2016 00:08
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foobardog posted:I wonder if we're seeing the results of increasing exodus from Republican-run states. That's possibly another factor. Sure, more people in the big cities who have fled, but that's just making a blue state bluer, and a red state redder.
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Dec 1, 2016 00:10
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Buckwheat Sings posted:Bernie didn't win because it was 'her turn' and the Democrats didn't want to mess around with one of their most powerful members and she was entrenched in the party as one could possibly get. You're strangely attempting to simplify what happened to Bernie No Win, Bernie Bad. All that was true in 2008 as well.
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Dec 1, 2016 00:09
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JeffersonClay posted:It's quite possible that some moderate republicans didn't cross over because everyone thought hillary had the election in the bag and they didn't want to give her some massive mandate. The flawed polling and narrative leading up to the election affected both Clinton's strategy and voter behavior. you don't get to claim you picked up voters if they don't bother to vote for you
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Dec 1, 2016 00:10
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anti_strunt posted:Well, obviously, but a margin that large has to be unprecedented. I know how the states went, mostly, but where did most of those several million wasted votes come from? rscott posted:California mostly I didn't used to be in favor of getting rid of the EC, but the mass migration to urban centers is only getting stronger and I don't see any other way of fixing this. We're likely to see this phenomenon getting stronger, not weaker unless we do something.
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Dec 1, 2016 00:10
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Buckwheat Sings posted:I visit the country and it feels like a zombie apocalyse. Meanwhile Los Angeles has more traffic than Traffico Fiesta Heaven 24/7 as everyone is moving the gently caress out of nowhere into the cities. Rural areas have huge economic problems that are largely self-inflicted. The dream for half of the rural area is being a bed room community with no community. They shut down theaters, libraries, schools. Then wonder why all the kids move to the city. They oppose municipal broadband, then wonder why all the kids leave the for the city and why $TechCompany doesn't open a branch in their all-dial up town. Adverse Selection then creates a feedback loop where the only people around are the people who enjoy trying to live like it is 1970 and refuse to address the issues that caused people to leave. Because all the people who left no longer have a voice in the community.
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Dec 1, 2016 00:10
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anti_strunt posted:Well, obviously, but a margin that large has to be unprecedented. I know how the states went, mostly, but where did most of those several million wasted votes come from? Most importantly CA (as someone else said) but also TX, GA, MD, AZ, and MA
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Dec 1, 2016 00:11
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A lovely Reporter posted:The Democratic Party are not "Republican-lite", and anyone claiming that at this point is either so insulated from Republican hate that they're functionally blind and deaf, making claims in bad faith, or completely uncaring about people (i.e. minorities) that get hurt by Republican policies. My state's Republican government just passed a hosed-up law that will have women forced to pay for burial and a funeral for an aborted fetus. Shame on you for making this actively harmful false equivalence, and may Trump's horrible policies harm you personally. Which state? If Indiana you are slightly misrepresenting a horrible policy I oppose.  (Which is relevant when talking to normal people rather than politics-obsessed mutants like us)
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Dec 1, 2016 00:11
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gently caress it, if we're going to be in 1984, let's at least get the suede-denim secret police. Brown 2020
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Dec 1, 2016 00:11
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Xae posted:Rural areas have huge economic problems that are largely self-inflicted. Or the older rural population is too poor and under skilled to be able to move to richer urban areas? And that corporate interests are the ones making GBS threads on them with stuff like muni broadband? But let's continue making GBS threads on the poor rural population.
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Dec 1, 2016 00:12
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foobardog posted:gently caress it, if we're going to be in 1984, let's at least get the suede-denim secret police. Jello was right about a lot of things but he turned out to be super wrong about Jerry Brown.
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Dec 1, 2016 00:15
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JeffersonClay posted:It's quite possible that some moderate republicans didn't cross over because everyone thought hillary had the election in the bag and they didn't want to give her some massive mandate. The flawed polling and narrative leading up to the election affected both Clinton's strategy and voter behavior. I'm not sure the polling was meaningfully flawed, in the sense that the measurement of people who preferred Hillary to Trump was probably fairly close to correct. What it didn't capture was the strength of that support and willingness to actually go out and vote, voter suppression efforts, etc. The narrative that "Bernie lost because the DNC hosed him in various ways" ignores that Bernie lost because he got less votes. The important lesson not really being about the politics of Bernie and more so about the importance of not trying to start a campaign for a primary when the primary begins. To win in politics requires playing the game and campaigning for positions well, well before the actual election. The progressives getting into entry-level Democratic Party leadership now will have power in four years. That's the kind of forward planning we need.
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Dec 1, 2016 00:15
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shrike82 posted:Or the older rural population is too poor and under skilled to be able to move to richer urban areas? If they are unwilling to vote for policies that would benefit them, there are a couple options. A) Ram those policies down their throats from a state or federal level. B) Persuade them on a more grassroots level that these policies are actually good. C) Leave them to rot in hellholes that are unsustainable without active vertical assistance. I would prefer A or B, but there is probably a strategic space for C.
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Dec 1, 2016 00:16
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Condiv posted:you don't get to claim you picked up voters if they don't bother to vote for you Yes, I'm explaining why the prediction was wrong. The overwhelming pre-election narrative was one where Hillary won, the question was by how much. If you're a marginally motivated democratic voter, the stakes are low, so turnout among these people goes down. If you're a moderate Republican who wants hillary to beat trump-- but not with a big mandate -- you might vote trump to shrink the margins that everyone is expecting to be large. If you're a diehard trump supporter, you don't listen to the corrupt media anyway so there's not a corresponding turnout drop in his base.
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Dec 1, 2016 00:17
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Policy C's been the Democrat choice for a while between Obama and HRC continuing to poo poo on them. What was that sneering statement that Obama pulled off in '12?
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Dec 1, 2016 00:16
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shrike82 posted:And that corporate interests are the ones making GBS threads on them with stuff like muni broadband? That was when New Deal Democrats were still alive, though. A big problem in the Upper Midwest is that New Deal Dems (many of whose parents were Debs voters btw) are now dead or senile. Their boomer kids are now bootstraps Tea Party types or left for greener pastures long ago.
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Dec 1, 2016 00:17
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:The Electoral College is bad.
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Dec 1, 2016 00:17
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shrike82 posted:Policy C's been the Democrat choice for a while between Obama and HRC continuing to poo poo on them. i don't remember exactly but i definitely remember obama saying something like "the far left needs to quit whining and get in line" years and years ago
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Dec 1, 2016 00:18
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The polls were not wrong on the national level. Clinton was said to be up 1-5 points and she'll end up winning the popular vote by 2. How come people can't grasp this?
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Dec 1, 2016 00:18
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NathanScottPhillips posted:Why? There's been a lot of talk about the EC being stupid but nobody can articulate their thoughts. This type of thinking comes from poor civics knowledge. We have states and individual states govern their people which leads to better local government. Lots of countries do this it's not unique. The reason for the Electoral College is that a state is more than the sum of it's population and population is not the end-all be-all of how much power a state should have. States have value beyond their small population numbers and likewise large populations have value in themselves up to a certain point. Its bad because it will not do its job and exercise it's veto over a manifest ly unqualified candidate. It's a shell institution with no remaining purpose. There are plenty of other institutions, such as the senate and gerrymandering, that give appropriate representation to rural areas. As it is they are over representated.
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Dec 1, 2016 00:19
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NathanScottPhillips posted:Why? There's been a lot of talk about the EC being stupid but nobody can articulate their thoughts. This type of thinking comes from poor civics knowledge. We have states and individual states govern their people which leads to better local government. Lots of countries do this it's not unique. The reason for the Electoral College is that a state is more than the sum of it's population and population is not the end-all be-all of how much power a state should have. States have value beyond their small population numbers and likewise large populations have value in themselves but only up to a certain point. So you're saying that it having some people's vote matter more than others is a good thing?
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Dec 1, 2016 00:19
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It was actually in '08 and regarding PA quote:You go into these small towns in Pennsylvania and, like a lot of small towns in the Midwest, the jobs have been gone now for 25 years and nothing's replaced them. And they fell through the Clinton administration, and the Bush administration, and each successive administration has said that somehow these communities are gonna regenerate and they have not.
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Dec 1, 2016 00:20
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Canada has more powers devolved to provinces than the US and somehow they manage to avoid this bullshit.
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Dec 1, 2016 00:21
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Buckwheat Sings posted:Bernie didn't win because it was 'her turn' and the Democrats didn't want to mess around with one of their most powerful members and she was entrenched in the party as one could possibly get. You're strangely attempting to simplify what happened to Bernie No Win, Bernie Bad. As pointed out, it was her turn in 2008 and Obama beat her. Unless we're going to keep saying that Hillary somehow conjured up 3.5 million votes to win the primary but couldn't rig the general to the tune of a couple hundred thousand, I don't think the content of the messsage was the problem so much as the delivery (or perhaps more likely, a lack of proper preparation as LK pointed out). This is why I've been stressing that you can replace all the people you want in the DNC, but it won't matter if you can't convince enough people. Unless it just so happens that the people who didn't vote Hilary and stayed home out of discouragement just wanted all the stuff Bernie was pushing and not any other reason for staying home like voter suppression or the never-ending scandal wars, and that all those people voting would offset anybody discouraged enough to not vote for whatever (probably bad) reason because they didn't like the platform. But that's all theoretical. Also, if 1/4 of the people who vote Democrat are the "neoliberals" that people want to get rid of, then you're not going to win without them, and they also need to be convinced. As well as any of those so-called "independent" voters who just want to be assured things are going to get better for themselves and stay that way and allegedly don't care about the R or D next to a person's name. Gail Wynand posted:Canada has more powers devolved to provinces than the US and somehow they manage to avoid this bullshit. I imagine the laws that outline those powers in Canada are a lot less vague than the 10th Amendment.
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Dec 1, 2016 00:21
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It's also not fair that bumbfuck Wyoming gets the same level of Senatorial representation as loving California but that's another conversation. It might not matter as much if the House of Representatives had been adjusted for population growth over the past 100 years but lol
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Dec 1, 2016 00:21
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