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Squalid
Nov 4, 2008

Punkin Spunkin posted:

I think it's fitting this thread is now as chaotic dogshit as the conflict itself.

I feel weird right now because this time last year I was arguing against more aggressive American action with the same people whose side I'm now taking against all those lusting for jihadi death in Aleppo.

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Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless
"Well what the hell did you want Hitler to do with all those Jews?" Said the liberal.

thatfatkid
Feb 20, 2011

by Azathoth

Volkerball posted:

"Well what the hell did you want Hitler to do with all those Jews?" Said the liberal.

I didn't realise Jewish militias instigated a civil war in an attempt to establish a theocratic state.

There's a slight difference between vetting a retaken densely populated area formerly held by jihadist militias and rounding up entire ethnic groups nation wide. You've reached a new low equating the holocaust with a civil war fought against jihadist militias.

thatfatkid fucked around with this message at 07:20 on Dec 2, 2016

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless

thatfatkid posted:

I didn't realise Jewish militias instigated a civil war in an attempt to establish a theocratic state.

There's a slight difference between vetting a retaken densely populated area formerly held by jihadist militias and rounding up entire ethnic groups nation wide. You've reached a new low equating the holocaust with a civil war fought against jihadist militias.

Tell it to Hamza al-Khatib and the thousands of other children who have been tortured to death in regime prisons since the war kicked off. Or Ghiath Matar and the thousands of other brave men and women who were singled out and tortured to death specifically for protesting nonviolently, yet continued to protest knowing full well the risks. The regime has consistently used brutality against civilians and civilian infrastructure as a tool. The people living in rebel held territory must be punished for allowing dissent against the regime to happen. It's the non jihadists who get it the worst, as a matter of fact, as the regime depends on the jihadists to legitimize itself. The people who protested peacefully are the real threat, as they can be sympathized with, so the regime has spent the last several years systematically annihilating them while empowering jihadist groups to replace them. It's nice to see he's got western liberals on board doing their part. In any fight between the oppressor and the oppressed, something something.

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless
Speaking of, Roy Gutmans highly anticipated report on the regimes relations with jihadists started coming out yesterday. It's a three part series that's the result of a two year investigation, and features many interviews with defected Syrian diplomats and mukhabarat operatives. I'll post a highlight reel after it's all out, but it's a very compelling read so far.

https://twitter.com/Roy_Gutman/status/804354429659074560

https://twitter.com/Roy_Gutman/status/804578676767604736

ass struggle
Dec 25, 2012

by Athanatos

thatfatkid posted:

I didn't realise Jewish militias instigated a civil war in an attempt to establish a theocratic state.

There's a slight difference between vetting a retaken densely populated area formerly held by jihadist militias and rounding up entire ethnic groups nation wide. You've reached a new low equating the holocaust with a civil war fought against jihadist militias.

Do you think that kurdish cities should be vetted when Assad captures them?

ass struggle
Dec 25, 2012

by Athanatos

thatfatkid posted:


Should the the population not be vetted for combatants and sleeper cells?

this was the justification for the armenian genocide by the way.

literally word for word

Sergg
Sep 19, 2005

I was rejected by the:

It's the same as it always is. Assad's mercs do the heavy lifting, then the SAA units roll in behind to terrorize the locals, loot their stuff, and bus off the local men to a Byzantine system of torture dungeons & death camps.

The sections that haven't fallen yet are packed with hundreds of thousands of civilians because they're also evacuating away from government forces. There's no food left.

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good

thatfatkid posted:

Alternatively what exactly should the regime do once they've retaken areas formerly held by jihadist rebels? Should suspected fighters not be detained and vetted?

I understand that most posters in this thread are blatantly cheerleading for Al-Nusra at this point and would rather the regime forces just laid down and died, but that's obviously not going to happen. Try and look at the conflict for the reality that it is, not the fantasy world you want it to be.

Also please try and refrain from putting words in my mouth. Pointing out that the Al-Nusra lead rebels aren't the shining lights of liberal-democracy and would not be an improvement compared to the regime does not equate to support of an authoritarian regime.

:eyepop:

Cat Mattress
Jul 14, 2012

by Cyrano4747
The whole civil war started because Assad is a bloodthirsty murderous shithead of a corrupt dictator, so that when people were demonstrating because they had nothing to eat, he decided to just send the army to shoot in the crowds and instantly called them terrorists. If he had instead spent some of the money he had embezzled from his country on humanitarian relief and perhaps made some vague promise of becoming a little bit less corrupt, this whole disaster would have been avoided. Assad cannot be the solution because he is the problem.

Al Qaeda is certainly bad. It's just that Assad and his thugs are worse, very much worse, for the Syrian people.

A rebel victory over Assad would not have meant a victory for theocratic jihadists. They're certainly an important force on the ground in Syria, but they aren't unopposed. You only need to look at Libya -- which I would remind you that, despite the chaotic mess it's in, is still better off than Syria -- to see that no, the Salafist militia don't have broad support from the population, and there are other strong forces that are hostile to them.

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless
This is an interesting read. Not sold on all of its conclusions though.

https://twitter.com/arabist/status/804620705124020224

Descar
Apr 19, 2010

Cat Mattress posted:

Al Qaeda is certainly bad. It's just that Assad and his thugs are worse, very much worse, for the Syrian people.

I agree with you, but Al Qaeda is a threat outside of Syria, while Assad is not.

Then guess who does and doesn't gets support outside of Syria.

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless

Descar posted:

I agree with you, but Al Qaeda is a threat outside of Syria, while Assad is not.

Then guess who does and doesn't gets support outside of Syria.

The Assad regime bused jihadists to Iraq to kill American soldiers, shot down a Turkish jet, and assassinated a Lebanese prime minister. Not to mention its own role in empowering al-Qaeda in Syria.

ass struggle
Dec 25, 2012

by Athanatos
Russia and its proxies are a bigger threat than al-qaeda will ever be

Throatwarbler
Nov 17, 2008

by vyelkin
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices...g-a7451656.html

quote:

The Iraqi army, backed by US-led airstrikes, is trying to capture east Mosul at the same time as the Syrian army and its Shia paramilitary allies are fighting their way into east Aleppo. An estimated 300 civilians have been killed in Aleppo by government artillery and bombing in the last fortnight, and in Mosul there are reportedly some 600 civilian dead over a month.

Despite these similarities, the reporting by the international media of these two sieges is radically different.

In Mosul, civilian loss of life is blamed on Isis, with its indiscriminate use of mortars and suicide bombers, while the Iraqi army and their air support are largely given a free pass. Isis is accused of preventing civilians from leaving the city so they can be used as human shields.

Contrast this with Western media descriptions of the inhuman savagery of President Assad’s forces indiscriminately slaughtering civilians regardless of whether they stay or try to flee. The UN chief of humanitarian affairs, Stephen O’Brien, suggested this week that the rebels in east Aleppo were stopping civilians departing – but unlike Mosul, the issue gets little coverage.

One factor making the sieges of east Aleppo and east Mosul so similar, and different, from past sieges in the Middle East, such as the Israeli siege of Beirut in 1982 or of Gaza in 2014, is that there are no independent foreign journalists present. They are not there for the very good reason that Isis imprisons and beheads foreigners while Jabhat al-Nusra, until recently the al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria, is only a shade less bloodthirsty and generally holds them for ransom.


At least 45 Syrian refugees killed by regime missile while trying to flee Aleppo
These are the two groups that dominate the armed opposition in Syria as a whole. In Aleppo, though only about 20 per cent of the 10,000 fighters are Nusra, it is they – along with their allies in Ahrar al-Sham – who are leading the resistance.

Unsurprisingly, foreign journalists covering developments in east Aleppo and rebel-held areas of Syria overwhelmingly do so from Lebanon or Turkey. A number of intrepid correspondents who tried to do eyewitness reporting from rebel-held areas swiftly found themselves tipped into the boots of cars or otherwise incarcerated.

Experience shows that foreign reporters are quite right not to trust their lives even to the most moderate of the armed opposition inside Syria. But, strangely enough, the same media organisations continue to put their trust in the veracity of information coming out of areas under the control of these same potential kidnappers and hostage takers. They would probably defend themselves by saying they rely on non-partisan activists, but all the evidence is that these can only operate in east Aleppo under license from the al-Qaeda-type groups.

It is inevitable that an opposition movement fighting for its life in wartime will only produce, or allow to be produced by others, information that is essentially propaganda for its own side. The fault lies not with them but a media that allows itself to be spoon-fed with dubious or one-sided stories.

For instance, the film coming out of east Aleppo in recent weeks focuses almost exclusively on heartrending scenes of human tragedy such as the death or maiming of civilians. One seldom sees shots of the 10,000 fighters, whether they are wounded or alive and well.

In pictures: Aleppo bombing
14
show all
None of this is new. The present wars in the Middle East started with the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 which was justified by the supposed threat from Saddam Hussein’s possession of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Western journalists largely went along with this thesis, happily citing evidence from the Iraqi opposition who predictably confirmed the existence of WMD.

Some of those who produced these stories later had the gall to criticise the Iraqi opposition for misleading them, as if they had any right to expect unbiased information from people who had dedicated their lives to overthrowing Saddam Hussein or, in this particular case, getting the Americans to do so for them.

Much the same self-serving media credulity was evident in Libya during the 2011 Nato-backed uprising against Muammar Gaddafi.

Atrocity stories emanating from the Libyan opposition, many of which were subsequently proved to be baseless by human rights organisations, were rapidly promoted to lead the news, however partial the source.

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless

rear end struggle posted:

Russia and its proxies are a bigger threat than al-qaeda will ever be

A lot of people in the pentagon see it that way.

Throatwarbler
Nov 17, 2008

by vyelkin
Almost 2,000 Iraqi security forces killed in November.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-38173574

ass struggle
Dec 25, 2012

by Athanatos

Volkerball posted:

A lot of people in the pentagon see it that way.

It's the only logical way to view it if you must make an equivalency. Al-Qaeda is a vague foreign criminal gang, saying it's an existential threat to America is like saying the Italian mafia was a larger threat than Imperial Japan.

Dr Kool-AIDS
Mar 26, 2004

I guess we should go to war with Russia then.

fits my needs
Jan 1, 2011

Grimey Drawer

Sinteres posted:

I guess we should go to war with Russia then.

I thought our next Secretary of Defense was more interested in going to war with Iran?

Dr Kool-AIDS
Mar 26, 2004

fits my needs posted:

I thought our next Secretary of Defense was more interested in going to war with Iran?

Basically everyone Trump's surrounding himself with wants to go to war with Iran. Volkerball's going to love the new regime once he gives it a chance.

ass struggle
Dec 25, 2012

by Athanatos

Sinteres posted:

I guess we should go to war with Russia then.

If nuclear weapons were off the table I would support a moderate intervention and bombing campaign of Russian naval infrastructure in response to the invasion of Ukraine. Followed by a blockade until the state is ready to make concessions in the Caucuses and the east.

Russia's amazing navy of a whopping 26 non-corvette surface ships would make an interesting live fire drill for the combined allied fleet.

Dr Kool-AIDS
Mar 26, 2004

rear end struggle posted:

If nuclear weapons were off the table

As long as you're fantasizing, which supermodel wife would you have?

ass struggle
Dec 25, 2012

by Athanatos

Sinteres posted:

As long as you're fantasizing, which supermodel wife would you have?

Responding to your question, should the US go to war with Russia?

Yes. But Russia still has nukes. So disable her proxies, and continue with the policy of encirclement until Putin does something moronic.

Crowsbeak
Oct 9, 2012

by Azathoth
Lipstick Apathy

rear end struggle posted:

Responding to your question, should the US go to war with Russia?

Yes. But Russia still has nukes. So disable her proxies, and continue with the policy of encirclement until Putin does something moronic.

If you really want to gently caress Russia, flood it with cheap heroin and accelerate the demographic decline by a decade.

Count Roland
Oct 6, 2013

rear end struggle posted:

It's the only logical way to view it if you must make an equivalency. Al-Qaeda is a vague foreign criminal gang, saying it's an existential threat to America is like saying the Italian mafia was a larger threat than Imperial Japan.

I love how Russia is portrayed simultaneously as a decaying, bankrupt petro state and also as an existential threat to the most powerful nation on the planet.

Some people in the Pentagon seem pretty keen on Killing Russians, because, you know, they're weak and can't fight back. So sure lets impose a "no-fly zone" in Syria, which is code for war, and indeed war with Russia. Nukes be damned.

This kinda of attitude is super dangerous. In Syria and in Ukraine, the US and Russia are playing old Cold War games with most of the rules thrown out, and the experienced players are dead and gone. Both sides seem pretty willing to push and threaten more overtly than they would have in decades past. I don't think nuclear war is a real possibility, but its loving retarded to be acting like this.

ass struggle
Dec 25, 2012

by Athanatos
Russia is a decaying bankrupt petrostate. It also has the capability to wipe out all life on the planet. I think that is a little bit more of a threat than a couple terrorists shooting up a cafe every few months.


Also, how the gently caress is the US playing "coldwar games" in Ukraine? By telling Russia it can't annex countries?

TildeATH
Oct 21, 2010

by Lowtax

Count Roland posted:

I love how Russia is portrayed simultaneously as a decaying, bankrupt petro state and also as an existential threat to the most powerful nation on the planet.

Some people in the Pentagon seem pretty keen on Killing Russians, because, you know, they're weak and can't fight back. So sure lets impose a "no-fly zone" in Syria, which is code for war, and indeed war with Russia. Nukes be damned.

This kinda of attitude is super dangerous. In Syria and in Ukraine, the US and Russia are playing old Cold War games with most of the rules thrown out, and the experienced players are dead and gone. Both sides seem pretty willing to push and threaten more overtly than they would have in decades past. I don't think nuclear war is a real possibility, but its loving retarded to be acting like this.

I've been watching that Oliver Stone history doc on Netflix and it's got me convinced it's racism against Russia for being "Asiatic".

ass struggle
Dec 25, 2012

by Athanatos

TildeATH posted:

Oliver Stone

lol


or you know the fact that the Russian's are continuing to act like they did in the cold war.

It takes two to tango.

SA_Avenger
Oct 22, 2012

rear end struggle posted:

Russia and its proxies are a bigger threat than al-qaeda will ever be

Threat to whom?

ass struggle
Dec 25, 2012

by Athanatos

SA_Avenger posted:

Threat to whom?

The world. Humanity.

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die
Nap Ghost
3000 odd people died in the WTC attacks. They were of symbolic significance outsize to the human toll. People living in various Middle Eastern countries have had to deal with terrorism and bombings as a part of their daily life for years and years - America has not, and we're vastly more wealthy and powerful. Al-Qaeda is not an existential threat to America, though our reaction to it might be. Russia does have the capability to destroy us, so even if you think that is unlikely it's still more of an existential threat.

TildeATH
Oct 21, 2010

by Lowtax

rear end struggle posted:

lol


or you know the fact that the Russian's are continuing to act like they did in the cold war.

It takes two to tango.

It's really quite a good doc series. He totally goes softer on Russia and Stalin especially but I find that refreshing in comparison to the creepy sort of thing you see the other way.

But the main theme, that modern American geopolitical popular conception is one of constant fear of the Other, is proved by the last couple posts talking about how it's okay for Assad to murder and torture because a few hundred thousand Syrians are less valuable than a couple dozen or possibly (hopefully?) hundreds of theoretical westerners.

double nine
Aug 8, 2013

rear end struggle posted:

The world. Humanity.

Really? What moves has Russia made in the last ... 20 years or so that threaten anyone in Africa? India? South America?

Hell, how is Russia posing an existential threat to the USA?

Panzeh
Nov 27, 2006
Probation
Can't post for 11 hours!
I'm just gonna laugh if you think the rebels would have let Rojava exist especially given the way they shelled the Kurdish areas where they could.

Throatwarbler
Nov 17, 2008

by vyelkin
IS Mosu counter-offensive has broken the encirclement and reestablished link to Raqqa.

Throatwarbler
Nov 17, 2008

by vyelkin
Subtitled version of the latest Ninawa Wilayah

h ttps://ia801505.us.archive.org/17/items/NiThePromiseOfAllah/The%20Promise%20of%20Allah.mp4

NSFW dead people.

Dr Kool-AIDS
Mar 26, 2004

Throatwarbler posted:

IS Mosu counter-offensive has broken the encirclement and reestablished link to Raqqa.

Nobody can accuse those fuckers of lacking tenacity, jfc.

Al-Saqr
Nov 11, 2007

One Day I Will Return To Your Side.

Volkerball posted:

This is an interesting read. Not sold on all of its conclusions though.

https://twitter.com/arabist/status/804620705124020224

That article is pretty dumb if it thinks that the lack of a customs union lies at the heart of why Arab youth cant get ahead.

I highly doubt there will be another wide scale revolution in the coming few years. There's way too much dead people, sectarianism has now terminally poisoned societies, the entire educated class of every Arab country save for Tunisia has been shut down, The dictatorships at this point have pretty much set in stone the fact that the only way to change them is through killing every single member of them. and the fact is that the dictatorships have the guns, money and foreign backing (both Russian and American) to essentially delete their countries if the youth stir up trouble again. Also there's the problem of the fact that arab youth no longer have any media to communicate themselves with, all of the websites and internet has been coopted and there's no free press in the arab world since 99.9% of them are owned by the gulf.

I remember a while ago I linked an article by a Syrian dissident that spoke of the 'Israelization' of the Syrian dictatorship, and I think that's now very true of the Arab dictatorships in general, that they have essentially re-colonized the middle east by setting themselves up as the vanguard for foreign interests, that they are now minority tribes with flags with brutalist rule as their MO.thus they get to rule and destroy their countries and societies purely through brute force and don't face repercussion and destruction thanks to the protection of their foreign backers, all in service of serving themselves and themselves alone to the detriment of the society they lord over as a whole.

In the end, the experience of the last five years has driven home to arab youth is that they've been put in a binary, uncompromising situation of "it's either I remain in power or you all die and don't have a country anymore". there's no more room for discussion, no more room for compromise, and not even entertaining the idea of a smooth transition of power. as it is, the Arab world is now back under direct occupation, and it looks really unlikely now after five years that they'll have the means to overcome the rivers of death the governments have in store for them, especially since nobody in the world wants arabs to have democracy enough to support any meaningful efforts towards change or revolution. The question now is, not only do the next generation of protestors have to somehow overcome the police, the mukhabarat, the entire security structure of the state, the entire military that had been training for this occasion, they also have to somehow overcome the money and bomber jets of the people backing those in power. and unfortunately, the answer to that doesn't seem like it's going to be answered anytime soon.

Like, the only way any meaningful change forward has to have one of two things happening:- 1) the Egyptian dictatorship is completely and utterly wiped out, permanently. because that country is the only one with enough heft and size to change anything if it becomes unshackled 2) an oil rich arab country falls to democrats and starts funding change agents like crazy, which is also unlikely due to the tribalist nature of the state and the security apparatuses and the solid foreign backing.

Al-Saqr fucked around with this message at 19:38 on Dec 2, 2016

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Coldwar timewarp
May 8, 2007



What a surprise! Having the ISF try to handle things alone is a bad idea. The Peshmerga and PMUs should have a more prominent role rather than being sidelined. The article on the way both seiges are covered is very funny, hadn't realized it.

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