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lollontee
Nov 4, 2014
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!
My sister is addisted to Mälli, so personally I can sympathise.

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Darkman Fanpage
Jul 4, 2012

Friendly Humour posted:

My sister is addisted to Mälli, so personally I can sympathise.

(colloquial) chewing tobacco, snuff
(colloquial) chewing gum
(colloquial) sperm

Which one?

Dodoman
Feb 26, 2009



A moment of laxity
A lifetime of regret
Lipstick Apathy
The emails from the White Helmets have been getting more and more depressing :smith: (also maybe a bit theatrical).

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless
https://twitter.com/Bivi_17/status/805278941951000580

A Deacon
Nov 17, 2016

by exmarx
So how long do you figure until the Syrian Civil War ends once al-Assad's forces retake Aleppo?

lollontee
Nov 4, 2014
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!

A Deacon posted:

So how long do you figure until the Syrian Civil War ends once al-Assad's forces retake Aleppo?

Who says it ever will?

Mc Do Well
Aug 2, 2008

by FactsAreUseless
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=03qBqP2I4p8

Life is just a dream, you know - it's never ending.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=40K_-akYm1w

lollontee
Nov 4, 2014
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!
Let a thousand nuclear flowers bloom!

Mc Do Well
Aug 2, 2008

by FactsAreUseless

Friendly Humour posted:

Let a thousand nuclear flowers bloom!

I may be wrong but it doesn't have to end that way - indeed that is what this human has been trying to prevent. In the past I suggested a spectacular destruction of ISIS that would also remind the public of a single objective reality understood by the formula E=MC^2. Now Daesh is too diffuse to effectively destroy in that manner - you can see the magical thinking and relativism enabling them reach socially toxic levels. But it isn't all bad - I believe the mind that was in Jesus returned to Earth and warned us of the coming storm before Donald heard of HTML and before Daesh existed.

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless

A Deacon posted:

So how long do you figure until the Syrian Civil War ends once al-Assad's forces retake Aleppo?

https://twitter.com/eyesONsham/status/805144106557116416

Never ever.

Throatwarbler
Nov 17, 2008

by vyelkin
https://twitter.com/sayed_ridha/status/805343292577574912
https://twitter.com/Syrianali_/status/805357533644910593
https://twitter.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/805365701439614976

Nusra continues to clean house.

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless
JFS's excuse is that they claim they have reason to believe that the other groups made a deal with turkey to surrender Aleppo.

ass struggle
Dec 25, 2012

by Athanatos
When did McDowell go insane?

Schizotek
Nov 8, 2011

I say, hey, listen to me!
Stay sane inside insanity!!!

rear end struggle posted:

When did McDowell go insane?

At least a year ago.

Throatwarbler
Nov 17, 2008

by vyelkin
So to answer my question

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MDc9tiZnsKM

The next French president is either going to be moderately pro-Assad or rabidly pro-Assad?

A Deacon
Nov 17, 2016

by exmarx

Most of the green is uninhabited desert. You have a higher chance of witnessing regime forces BBQing weenies than a rebel fighter raping a goat out there.

Mc Do Well
Aug 2, 2008

by FactsAreUseless

rear end struggle posted:

When did McDowell go insane?

"I'm not insane!"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2AUr3BtuRUI

I'm trying to help people be vessels for Holy Spirit. But it is difficult to overcome the materialism / nihilism programming that has allowed terrorists and militants to dominate your mind.

Peace be upon you. Go with God.

ass struggle
Dec 25, 2012

by Athanatos

Mc Do Well posted:

"I'm not insane!"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2AUr3BtuRUI

I'm trying to help people be vessels for Holy Spirit. But it is difficult to overcome the materialism / nihilism programming that has allowed terrorists and militants to dominate your mind.

Peace be upon you. Go with God.

Either this is a lame gimmick or your meds aren't working. Either way it's very boring.

Mc Do Well
Aug 2, 2008

by FactsAreUseless

rear end struggle posted:

Either this is a lame gimmick or your meds aren't working. Either way it's very boring.

Rude.

Sorry you don't find the actual Kingdom of Heaven inspiring - you don't have to follow it if you don't like it.

Cat Mattress
Jul 14, 2012

by Cyrano4747

Throatwarbler posted:

So to answer my question

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MDc9tiZnsKM

The next French president is either going to be moderately pro-Assad or rabidly pro-Assad?

Marion Maréchal-Le Pen is not the next French president, she's not even running. Don't confuse her with her aunt Marine Le Pen. The two women are opposed on many points, though they might agree about Syria.

Throatwarbler
Nov 17, 2008

by vyelkin

Cat Mattress posted:

Marion Maréchal-Le Pen is not the next French president, she's not even running. Don't confuse her with her aunt Marine Le Pen. The two women are opposed on many points, though they might agree about Syria.

I wasn't confusing them, although I now see why the wording of the post would suggest I was. v:downs:v.

Throatwarbler
Nov 17, 2008

by vyelkin
Just sitting on your vehicle when ATGM


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B9e5sQkfOxA

Darkman Fanpage
Jul 4, 2012

Says motar attack, which by the sound of it sounds more likely. You hear a familiar motar "whump" just before the strike and everyone's looking around.

Cat Mattress
Jul 14, 2012

by Cyrano4747
The fourth of December is the day of Saint Barbara, patron saint of artillery and explosives.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0zndo4gttEY




An article in French on the subject of what to do with European Daesh deserters. It's talking specifically about three dumbasses (and two babies). They've been captured by a subgroup of the FSA as they fled Raqqa. Before what happened was that they would give them to the Turks, who would then arrange something with their European country of origin. Now, however, Turkey doesn't care anymore. Here's the part I find funny:

quote:

Paradoxically, it is since the country went into active war to drive Daesh from its border that the surveillance of jihadists is neglected. The operation "Euphrates Shield" triggered with the FSA at the end of summer has indeed made it possible to chase the jihadists. But in the imbroglio of the various local and international conflicts and struggles of influence on this part of the Syrian territory, taking care of fleeing jihadists does not seem to be a priority. While the number of returnees is expected to increase as the vise tightens on Daesh, attacked in both Syria and Iraq, the uncertainty and indecision on what to do with them is total.

Yes it's all very paradoxical. It's kind of as if Turkey didn't actually care about Daesh so much as they care about making sure Daesh's defeat will not profit the Kurds?

Dr Kool-AIDS
Mar 26, 2004

Cat Mattress posted:

Yes it's all very paradoxical. It's kind of as if Turkey didn't actually care about Daesh so much as they care about making sure Daesh's defeat will not profit the Kurds?

Erdogan's personally upset with Europe for shunning him too, so if some jihadists make it back home and cause problems there, he's not exactly going to cry about it.

ass struggle
Dec 25, 2012

by Athanatos

A Deacon posted:

Most of the green is uninhabited desert. You have a higher chance of witnessing regime forces BBQing weenies than a rebel fighter raping a goat out there.

And the US controlled every city and town in Iraq. Yet ISI survived.

TheNakedFantastic
Sep 22, 2006

LITERAL WHITE SUPREMACIST

A Deacon posted:

So how long do you figure until the Syrian Civil War ends once al-Assad's forces retake Aleppo?

If nothing changes probably under a year, possibly much sooner. The biggest remaining military operations will be retaking Idlib and the Eastern ISIS held areas. The regime-Kurd relationship seems to be turning into a political solution so it seems likely they can reach some sort of compromise with Assad, especially if they keep Western backing.

Redmark
Dec 11, 2012

This one's for you, Morph.
-Evo 2013
But low-intensity conflict will probably continue indefinitely.

Saladin Rising
Nov 12, 2016

When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

TheNakedFantastic posted:

If nothing changes probably under a year, possibly much sooner. The biggest remaining military operations will be retaking Idlib and the Eastern ISIS held areas. The regime-Kurd relationship seems to be turning into a political solution so it seems likely they can reach some sort of compromise with Assad, especially if they keep Western backing.
That bolded one looks to be happening sooner than expected:
https://twitter.com/CivilWarMap/status/805385288663044096

quote:

I heard that many #SDF fighters at Raqqa fronts are transferred to Ziyanat and Fadghami since some days. Not confirmed though.

https://twitter.com/Syria_Rebel_Obs/status/805074823084908544

quote:

#SRO - #Serekanye chechen battalions (part of #SDF) arrived near Shadade, reinforcing ongoing #SDF massive war preparations (1).
#SRO - Shadade is seeing one of the biggest #SDF military moves. Thousands coming from #Kobane and #Hasake cantons preparing battles (2).
#SRO - It will be the third major campaign for #Serekaniye chechens as they will participate after Tal Abyad push and North-#Raqqa (3).
#SRO - ADD.: Chechens forming a minority in #Rojava, displaced by Ottomans in XIXth century second part, mainly near #Serekaniye (END).

In "helpful history lessons from reddit" on Syrian Chechens:
https://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/5gbm60/serekanye_chechen_battalions_part_of_sdf_arrived/

VaiGattoPanceri posted:

19th century emigration from the Caucasus.

Tens of thousands of Caucasians were settled in the Levant and Mesopotamia by the Ottomans in the aftermath of the Caucasian Wars. Mostly Adyghes(i.e "Circassians"), but also Lezgins, Chechens, Ossetins, and Karachais in smaller numbers. The Ottomans wanted to turn them into a sort of military social caste to help the Ottoman Army keep the local Arabs, Armenians, and Assyrians pacified, but it didn't really work. In fact the opposite happened. During WWI the Caucasians eventually rejected the Ottomans en masse and sided with the British Empire. For example, the famous Arab Legion of Jordan was initially made up almost exclusively of Chechens and Circassians.

Tweet chain from a year ago with super interesting info:
https://twitter.com/ver_scholl_en/status/578307568805752833

quote:

Cmdr. Khalid Shawish, who comes from the old local #Chechen community, accuses Chechens who fight in #IS of "polluting" their people's name.
Shawish also praised #Rojava Revo. for strengthening bonds b/w peoples of the area, & spoke highly of local #Chechen-Kurd historical ties.
According to him, local Kurds convinced them to convert to Islam after they arrived in mid-19th c. (not heard that b4—curious to learn more)

Andrea Lazzaroni: After the Caucasian War (1817-1864) Chechens, Ossetians, Circassians and so on fled to the Ottoman Empire. Do you know more or less in which villages do they live?

Hans Scholl: aside from ras al-ayn itself, they're concentrated in al-safih and possibly a few nearby hamlets http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=36.734276&lon=40.155372&z=13&m=b
think they may also have had landholdings further down the khabur a century ago, around where assyrian villages are today
I have to say, the SDF has amassed an impressively large amalgam of ethnic and religious groups under the "gently caress ISIL" banner.

Coldwar timewarp
May 8, 2007




So you are saying Aleppo won't fall, while they fight each other. You say never ever while using a map which shows the Syrian Kurds, who are now quite aligned with Assad, as fellow rebels. Trump is president, France will soon have a pro Assad leader. What makes you hold onto hope. The revolution is collapsing. The pockets in the south are being closed after dehousing and bombing of civilians, freeing up troops. It's like the past year hasn't happened in your mind. You are delusional.

Edit: sorry, you didn't say Aleppo wouldn't fall. Precisely what is going to reverse the regimes momentum? Turkey going to straight up war with the regime is the only thing enabling a reversal that I see unless Donald Trump is browbeaten by his Generals.

Coldwar timewarp fucked around with this message at 18:11 on Dec 4, 2016

Throatwarbler
Nov 17, 2008

by vyelkin
IS could completely route the Iraqi army and then turn their efforts towards Syria. Idlib is entirely controlled by Nusra and can receive unlimited resupply from Turkey and Qatar. Israel could step in on Nusra's side. Netanyahu almost certainly prefers Nusra over Assad if he hasn't said so publicly already so maybe the IDF will give them an extra push.

Throatwarbler
Nov 17, 2008

by vyelkin
Looks like Faylaq al Sham has been absorbed into Nusra.

https://twitter.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/805366066843185152

Dr Kool-AIDS
Mar 26, 2004

Throatwarbler posted:

IS could completely route the Iraqi army and then turn their efforts towards Syria..
IS are tenacious, but they're not magical beings. If the Iraqi army fails to conquer Mosul, they'll unleash the militias.

Throatwarbler posted:

Idlib is entirely controlled by Nusra and can receive unlimited resupply from Turkey and Qatar.
They've been supplied by Turkey for quite some time and it doesn't seem to have tipped the balance, and cutting off that supply seems like it might be a reasonable goal for the regime once they finish off Aleppo. Plus I still think it's likely that we'll see a terror attack in the West attributed to Nusra sooner or later, and openly supplying them is going to become untenable.

Throatwarbler posted:

Netanyahu almost certainly prefers Nusra over Assad if he hasn't said so publicly already so maybe the IDF will give them an extra push.
I personally think he's viewed Assad as the likely victor for a while and that's why he's felt like poking him in the eye from time to time, though obviously Hezbollah's role in the conflict complicates things. Prolonging the conflict is generally good for Netanyahu, but Israel's relationship with Russia is too important to piss away on behalf of actually supporting jihadists who'd very obviously become Israeli enemies the second Assad was gone anyway.

Kim Jong Il
Aug 16, 2003

Coldwar timewarp posted:


Edit: sorry, you didn't say Aleppo wouldn't fall. Precisely what is going to reverse the regimes momentum? Turkey going to straight up war with the regime is the only thing enabling a reversal that I see unless Donald Trump is browbeaten by his Generals.

I agree with some of the criticism, but also the Gulf states could decide to turn it into even more of Afghanistan 1985.

Coldwar timewarp
May 8, 2007



Kim Jong Il posted:

I agree with some of the criticism, but also the Gulf states could decide to turn it into even more of Afghanistan 1985.

I see that as a possibility as well, but I think it would effectively end the US-Gulf alliance. Supply of MANPADS to jihadists hasn't happened for a reason. Trump doesn't seem to want this conflict to drag on further, as predictable as he is. Washing his hands of Syria and leaving it to the Russians and Iranians is effectively a reversion to the pre-war status quo, not a bad option to a lot of people. Maybe he will let them off the leash, who knows.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

The @AlabedBana Twitter account, of which there's been a lot of debate about whether it's real or not, just posted "We are sure the army is capturing us now. We will see each other another day dear world", and was deleted shortly afterwards. The area her home was in was captured by pro-government forces today.

Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 20:53 on Dec 4, 2016

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011


https://twitter.com/AMINA27A/status/805077921874513920

:raise:

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless

Coldwar timewarp posted:

So you are saying Aleppo won't fall, while they fight each other. You say never ever while using a map which shows the Syrian Kurds, who are now quite aligned with Assad, as fellow rebels. Trump is president, France will soon have a pro Assad leader. What makes you hold onto hope. The revolution is collapsing. The pockets in the south are being closed after dehousing and bombing of civilians, freeing up troops. It's like the past year hasn't happened in your mind. You are delusional.

Edit: sorry, you didn't say Aleppo wouldn't fall. Precisely what is going to reverse the regimes momentum? Turkey going to straight up war with the regime is the only thing enabling a reversal that I see unless Donald Trump is browbeaten by his Generals.

It's not about a reversal. All you guys always look at this thing in black and white. The regime not being able to win does not necessitate rebels taking Damascus. Neither side is capable of militarily putting an end to the fighting, or even doing much to lower its intensity. The regime does not have a prayer of securing all of Syria. There's simply no military solution to this war. All the rebels have to do is be where the regime is not, and launch attacks from there. And they'll have the support of the locals in the majority of the country, which makes staying alive and continuing to fight even easier.

And while the PYD may view the regime as allies, and the regime has encouraged them to feel that way, Assad most definitely is not allied with the PYD.

Cat Mattress
Jul 14, 2012

by Cyrano4747
I don't think the SDF see the regime as an ally; rather they see it as the enemy they have the possibility of not making.

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lollontee
Nov 4, 2014
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!
Pretty sure the people Assad spent spent a decade torturing and imprisoning do not see Assad as an ally.

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