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 October 4th, 1986, 9:00 PM  BGM: Fishy Aroma  "...So there can be more than 18 people! Which means I can defeat the line of reasoning that says any crime impossible for all 18 people must involve magic. That's a big scoop." "Pardon me. Battler-sama, would you like some black tea and cookies?" A plate set on a silver tray that he held was filled with delicious-looking, steaming black tea and cookies. I really don't like this guy's smile. For some reason, it doesn't look like a smile used to warmly greet a guest. It feels like he's mocking me somehow. I don't know if he really takes me for an idiot, or if it's just a joke or something, but it's really irritating me.  "...I don't need any. I'm busy now. Leave me alone." "Oh, my. Such a shame, and the cookies were so delicious too. Cooked so wonderfully they would be wasted on a mere human." "I'll eat some when I feel like it. Just set it down somewhere and get out of here." "Will that be acceptable? Then I shall do so. You may eat them when they get cold and stale, and then regret to the fullest that you did not eat them while they were fresh." "...You really are annoying. Well, you're a lot better than that Beato, who keeps doing that creepy cackle right next to my ear." "Yes, yes, that is quite true. There are times when Milady's laughter becomes quite undignified. Every time I hear it, I find it painful to comprehend why such a noble demon as myself must serve such a Master. Pu ku ku ku..." "...Man, you're weird. If you don't like it, then couldn't you just not work for her?" "And yet, to continue serving is furniture's joy. If we do not serve, we would hardly be furniture." As Ronove mocked me and giggled, he followed my earlier words literally and placed the black tea and cookies in a random spot nearby.  "...In any case, it appears you are now more confident in the existence of a 19th person, yes? Would you be gracious enough to allow me to hear your opinion?" "...Yeah, sure. I'm just going to say it again in front of Beato anyway. No reason to hide it. Basically, it looks like there's a hidden mansion somewhere on this island, and that Grandfather had his mistress living there. So, the question that's been torturing me about whether there are 18 or 19 people... can be easily resolved." "You have driven yourself into a corner because of the dead-end that you yourself have created. Even though you deny the witch, Battler-sama, you hold a double standard, and refuse to accept that the culprit is one of the 18." "...The easiest way to deny the witch would be to suspect one of the 18. It isn't easy to gather alibis for every one of them. You always find at least one person with a fragile alibi. I could probably continue to deny the witch forever if I just used that person as a scapegoat." "However, I refuse to do that!! Aah, it's useless, it's all useless! Every one of those 18 people is either a parent, a relative or a cousin to me! And those reliable servants, who are sometimes serious and sometimes fun to be with. I won't let myself use any one of them as a scapegoat!!" "In the past, my resolve wavered. That's how Beato hit me where my heart was weak." "...Ah, accepting and understanding one's own weaknesses. It is not something that can often be accomplished. Battler-sama, you use this theory about a 19th person as a spear. Or should I say, a shield? In any event, in contrast to how unprepared you were in the previous games, the fact that you now have a compass bearing on how to fight... is a dramatic leap forward, let us say. With this, you can suspect a 19th person and pursue your theory that the culprit is a human, without having to doubt any of the 18 you love and respect." "That's it exactly. Like in the first game, when Kanon-kun was killed in the boiler room, there were plenty of tricks I could've mentioned without hesitation, as long as a 19th person existed." One might think he was attacked by Kumasawa-san, who had gone down into the boiler room with him, or maybe that someone who had appeared to be dead earlier was actually faking and had ambushed him. Either way, it was a move that forced me to suspect one of the 18. However, by simply proposing that a 19th person existed, there was no longer any need to suspect one of the 18 for that murder in the boiler room.  Using this argument, it's easy to explain, for example, the problematic case that has already occurred in this game, 'who gave Maria the letter?' Even if all 18 people have alibis, I could easily explain everything by saying that a 19th person must've visited her and given her the letter.  "...Hmm, hmm. I'd say that's quite a good move. Now, how would I strike back against it?" "...You still have plenty of weak points, even if you are aware of them. Maybe the '18 person attack' would be an effective move. To judge the strength of your defense, it may be amusing to contest that point again." "Then how will you do it, demon butler...?!" BGM: Core "How naive. Of course, I knew you'd probably try that move...!" "My, my. Please respond to it." "Witches and demons and the like... There's no more fitting move for you guys to use." When you try to make some claim to humans like us, we always counterattack by telling you to show some proof. Because that's a human move. But I'm fighting with a witch. I'm taking part in a battle with someone who isn't human! And some moves exist that can only be used in a game against a witch. There are cheap moves! And that's what this 'Devil's Proof' is. Because it's impossible to prove!  In order to prove this, one must find this mansion and actually bring Beatrice out of it. That's called actual proof in the human world. However, if we follow the rules of the 'Devil's Proof', you can't deny that she exists, even if there's no proof that she does. Because it's impossible to prove that something doesn't exist. That's right, I'm finally able to turn the tables using this 'Devil's Proof', which tormented me so much before. Those guys were always trying to force me to accept the existence of the witch with it. After all, it was physically impossible for me to show any proof that 'witches don't exist' and deny Beato's claims. That's why I kept getting hit with the reckless argument that witches do exist... and was unable to counterattack. And that's why I'll spin the chessboard around right now!  In other words, because this problematic and mysterious mistress is craftily hiding herself, it'd be perfectly natural if you never found her no matter how hard you looked. So, you can't say that your inability to find this 19th person proves that she doesn't exist. Therefore, it's impossible to deny the 19th person's existence. Beato used the 'Devil's Proof' to make denying her own existence impossible, but this time it's become my weapon. If we can get away with this argument, then forget just a 19th person, this island could be full of people we don't know about, and even if there were 10 or 100 of them, she still couldn't deny that they existed. In the last game and the one before that, among the murder scenes that showed up, there were several that were extremely intricate and must've taken a lot of effort to set up. It's really hard to imagine a single culprit setting up all of those. However, if not just a 19th person, but 10 or 100 people were hidden somewhere, that wouldn't be any problem at all. If they all split up the work, they could handle any job in a short period of time.  You can't deny that even 100 people were there just because they weren't seen or noticed. Even though I'm saying it myself, it's such a stupid argument that it makes me wanna throw up! However, because it's such a dirty move, it's a perfect one to use against a witch.Well, this is just my imagination, but what if about 100 suspicious men wearing goat masks were hiding in the shadows... Something like that's worse than laughable, almost like they're cockroaches.If you see one, it means there's 100 more hiding somewhere.  "...But my opponent is a witch. And after all, that's the kind of competition we're having, isn't it? I'll use any kind of reckless argument to explain it using humans and deny the witch!!" "...Anyway, with this move, I won't have to doubt any of the 18 who are close to me again. I won't suffer a defeat like last time again...!!" "...I see. You have learned from your previous defeat. That is good. It's no surprise that you've become so devious now that you're in your third game." "...You first strengthen your own defense. That is truly a solid first step. Quite a spectacular move, I would say." "Well, even if we do assume that there's a 19th person, there are still a few tricks left that I can't resolve, like the actual number of master keys, no matter how many humans I add. Still, it isn't bad as a first step, for the time being." "Battler-sama, your trump card is the important piece called the 19th person. You countered my move of asking where the proof was by using the 'Devil's Proof'. A good skirmish. Although I must apologize for making a move by myself when Milady isn't here, I find that I too am growing slightly interested. I wonder if you will allow me to make yet another move on Milady's behalf?" "...Let's have it. I've got no shortage of opponents, be they witches or demons!" "Hempel's Raven...?? What are you talking about?" BGM: Organ Short #600 Million in C Minor Just then... aah, that enraging laugh I've heard so many times started echoing. The room was filled with dazzling golden butterflies, and in the center of that whirlwind, the Golden Witch appeared. "If it isn't Milady. Good morning."  "...'Hempel's Raven', was it? Such a familiar old move I could almost laugh. To think the day has come when I get to show it off to Battler. It's a classic move to use against a 'Devil's Proof'." "...Ronove, I will make this move. Do not get in the way of my fun." "So you've finally shown up, you guffawing witch. I see you're laughing like a freak just as usual. This guy was talking behind your back just now, telling me how undignified you look when you do that. Right?" "How rude. Is that true?" "Nonsense. Why would I speak such gossip about Milady, whom I regard with such sincere respect?" "...I can't believe you'd say something so shameless. Doesn't look like we'll be getting along well together..." "*cackle*cackle*cackle* Well, that is fine. Let us return to the point at hand. 'Hempel's Raven' is used to show actual proof using the contrapositive. In other words, it is a move like this... What must you do to prove that ravens are black?" "Huh? What are you talking about?? Prove that ravens are black... Wouldn't you just have to catch a raven and check to see if it's black?" "That's right. You must simply prove that 'if it is a raven, it is black'." "Do you see that, if you instead prove that 'birds that aren't black = not ravens', you would reach the same argument? If you go throughout the world and examine all birds that are not ravens, and prove that none of them are black, then as a result, you can claim that 'therefore, black birds are ravens'. This is called an argument by the contrapositive. Is that too difficult for you?" "Yeah, no kidding. I've got no idea what you're saying." "Battler-sama, what about this example? Let us say that you have two boxes, and one of them is a winner, with a cookie inside. Of course, the other one is a loser and is empty." At this moment, 'it has a cookie inside = you win', which implies that 'you do not win = it had no cookie inside'. When such a relationship exists, the latter is called the contrapositive... When 'if A then B' is true, then 'if not B then not A' is also true.   "...In other words, if you choose the box at random, whether it's the winner or the loser, you'll be able to figure out which box has the cookie in it after your first move." "That is correct. If the cookie is in the box you open, then the 'Devil's Proof' is satisfied. You can directly prove that 'this box is the winner = this box has a cookie in it'." "However, if the box you open is empty, then the reverse, Hempel's Raven, is satisfied. In other words 'this box does not have a cookie in it = this box isn't the winner." "And as long as we accept the premise that there are no more than two boxes, the contrapositive shows that the other box is automatically the winner." "...Well, I think I'm starting to see your reasoning. Only poison can stop poison, and only twisted logic can stop twisted logic. Then what? How does that overturn my claim that, 'because there's definitely a 19th human hidden on this island, even if all 18 people have alibis, I still won't have to accept witches'...?" "Very well. I will teach you about my move. First of all, you are stating that 'the culprit is not among the 18 = the culprit is a 19th person'. *cackle*cackle*! So if you use the contrapositive, it ends up like this." "In short, 'the culprit is not a 19th person = the culprit is one of the 18'!" "Huuuh?! What the, what do you mean?!" "Only that I've countered your move. Let's try and keep things simple. Ronove, explain. It seems you've made things easy enough for Battler to understand with your cookie in a box analogy." "Then forgive my presumption. Allow me to explain my earlier example once more." In this situation, you have an '18 person box' and a '19th person box'. So the cookie represents the culprit. Battler-sama, let's say you open the 18 person box. Because the cookie is not there, you have paradoxically proven that 'therefore, the cookie is in the 19th person box'. That lets us make an even more paradoxical claim. In other words, if it was first shown that the 19th person box was empty, it would prove at the same time that 'the cookie is in the 18 person box'. Battler-sama played this move in order to avoid having to doubt any of the 18, but it's now been used to prepare an '18 person attack'...!" "...Nngg... what the hell...?" BGM: Mind "So, that move I was so confident in... was actually a double-edged sword?" "That's right. As soon as you played that move and attempted to explain everything with a 19th person, you'd already taken on a risk that you might be forced to accept that the culprit was one of the 18."I see... 'Hempel's Raven'. So this is a countering technique?! Wait, if I really think about it, this counter is really disadvantageous for me. This isn't a cookie we're talking about. If I imagine that the 'loser' treasure chest actually has a bomb in it, it gets even clearer. And there aren't just two treasure chests, but 18 plus 1 more for the 19th person. If you think of it as a total of 19 boxes, it gets even easier to picture.  I didn't want to place the bomb in the boxes for any of the 18, so I used the 'Devil's Proof'... and created the 19th person box so I could throw the bomb in there. That much was fine. But then, Beato struck back. Now, if the contents of the 19th person box are empty, that'll automatically mean that the bomb's in one of the other 18 boxes. If I could examine what's inside all 18 of those boxes, then as long as I can show that the bomb isn't in any of them, I'll be able to safely show that the 18 are innocent. If that were possible, I'd have nothing to fear! However, in reality, that'll be almost absolutely impossible. The police wouldn't come here in this typhoon. We don't have access to scientific investigations or experts or anything. In short, we can't prove anything decisively! It'll be impossible for me to find any proof other than simply gulping down whatever alibis each of the 18 give. That means I personally have to prove their innocence, and I have to do it perfectly. Like by staying with them the whole time, never letting them out of my sight for a second. By doing that, I could probably be sure of that person's innocence, sure that the bomb isn't in their box. ...However, in practical terms, that'll be impossible! In other words, I'd have to expend an incredible effort just to check the contents of one box. And there are 18 of them! In other words, unless I bound all 18 of them in chains and watch over them, it'll be impossible to prove that all of them have empty boxes. However, Beato only has to open one box, the 19th person box, and show that it's empty to prove that the bomb's in one of the other 18 boxes. (Furthermore, there's no need for her to show 'which' of the 18 boxes has the bomb!) I've got 18 times more work to do to explain my pet theory than Beatrice does for hers...  BGM: Closed my Heart "However, 'Hempel's Raven' turns that problem around... and makes it possible to prove things easily!" "By using 'Hempel's Raven', various reckless arguments become possible to prove true or false. For example, let us say I make the proposition 'All humans except me are foolish'. Normally, I would have to examine all of humanity except myself and show that they are all foolish. However, in reality, it would be impossible to investigate billions of people. It's just the same sort of effort you'd need to open all 18 boxes." "*cackle*cackle*! However, by using 'Hempel's Raven', the contrapositive of that proposition would change it into this. If you, to use your phrase, spin the chessboard around on the claim that 'All humans except me = foolish', you would have to do nothing more than prove that 'not foolish = me'. ...And what do you think that means?" "*cackle*cackle*! As soon as I know the fact that 'I am wise', I will be able to show in an instant that every one of the billions of people in the human race is foolish. In less than a second, I could finish proving that the entire human race is more foolish than me!!" "It truly is the strongest and fastest QED in the world, this 'Hempel's Raven'!" "Wha... What a ridiculous argument...!!!" "It is a very, very convenient move. Not only demons, but gods also use it. When they propose that 'the blessed = the servants of a god', the contrapositive is 'a human is not a servant of a god = he must not be blessed'." "So in order to prove that servants of gods are blessed with divine protection, they only have to bring ill fortune down upon those people who don't receive such protection." "...So, by bringing misfortune down upon those who don't believe in them, they prove their blessedness." "An enormous cost is required to give humans happiness. However, it takes a lot less to bring humans misfortune." "*cackle*cackle*cackle*cackle*cackle* So by using 'Hempel's Raven', gods are actually giving believers the joy of divine protection for cheap." "...Y-You demon. It's a demon's argument... That's crazy...!!!" "It seems we've gone off-topic. Let us get back to the point." "The move for my counterattack is complete. And now, in response to your claim of 'the 19th person is the culprit, therefore, the 18 are innocent and the witch doesn't exist,' I say 'therefore, if I can prove that the culprit is not some 19th person, we can be sure that the culprit is either one of the 18 or a witch, right?'" BGM: None Just when I'd thought I'd countered one of their strong points, their counterattack had been this reckless argument that I couldn't possibly have anticipated...! Is this... gonna be impossible after all...?! To continue denying the witch on an island with no more than 18 people... and still believe in the innocence of those 18 people... Is that just a delusion?! Am I just trying to escape reality?! Not yet... Don't give up this desperate struggle yet. Who cares about 'Whoever's Raven'? They're just trying to confuse me by bringing up weird bits of trivia... I used the 'Devil's Proof'. Don't feel uncertain about something you've used once. Believe in the spear you've drawn. And then, forcefully... gouge it in...!  BGM: Suspicion "...Ah, wait a sec, I want to be sure. I'll admit I talked about a 19th person to keep it simple, but if we're gonna use the 'Devil's Proof' to raise the number of people above 18, then we'd have no way of knowing if there were 10 people, 100 people, or an indeterminate number of people. They countered my twisted logic with something even more twisted. So the only thing that could counter that... would be even crazier twisted logic...! "Hmm, I see. Even if I somehow prove an alibi for the 19th person, as soon as I do, you will think up a 20th person and claim that they are the culprit. By repeating this endlessly, you would make it so I kept searching for their alibis for all eternity. I see, I see, *cackle*cackle*! Just like a demon king summoning a plague of locusts. I wouldn't expect anything less from Kinzo's grandchild. It looks like you have been gifted with a talent in summoning." "...In short! It's impossible to always prove an alibi for each person X outside of the first 18! How do you like that, Beato...?! Now that I know we're having a battle with twisted logic, I won't lose!" "*cackle*cackle*cackle*cackle*cackle*cackle*!! How foolish... Who do you think I am? I am the Endless Witch! The thought that you could challenge me endlessly is just absurd. Endless control means that I am able to kill endlessly." "...When your 19th person folds, you will summon a 20th, and when your 20th person folds, you will summon a 21st, and when your 21 person folds and your 22nd person folds, you will summon a 23rd person, a 34th person, a 64358223579673204th person! Did you think you'd have me at your mercy for all eternity?!" "I laugh at 'infinite regress'! The 'infinite' doesn't work against me!!" "Well then, how will you kill my 'endless'? Just try and show me!!" BGM: Organ Short #600 Million in C Minor "...!! Here it comes..." "When I speak in red, it will contain absolutely no illusions. If I say once in red that there are no more than 100 people on this island, you will no longer be permitted to create a 101st person." "*cackle*cackle*! See, Battleeer? What truth shall I tell in red this time? Where shall I strike for the kill and force you into hopelessness? *cackle*cackle*cackle*! Come, show me your usual frightened face..." "..." "...What?" BGM: Closed my Heart  "...Why... are you laughing...?"I wonder what kind of creepy look I had on my face as I laughed right then. That red sure is scary. Every time it jumps out, I'm driven into the depths of hopelessness. But... I've already realized something. There's no need to be overly afraid of the red.  "...Hoh. What do you mean by that? Suddenly looking so relaxed..." "Sorry, but I was waiting for you to take out that blood-red treasured sword of yours. Let's see, what'll you proclaim in red this time?" "You aren't going to say 'the culprit was one of those 18 people', are you? Be careful, since that'd mean self-destruction for you, right? That'd be the same as throwing away your own witch theory yourself. A complete resignation."That's right, the red wasn't always a weapon that worked in Beato's favor alone. It was the other way around. If she used it the wrong way, it was dangerous enough that she could bring about her own death. If she used it carelessly and said something that ended up denying herself, that'd be exactly the same as self-destructing. "Of course, it'd be sad and difficult for me to accept if you told me in red that one of the 18 was the culprit. No matter who the culprit actually was, I'd definitely have to deal with some tough emotions..." "But before that, it would mean your defeat! Saying in red that the culprit is a human is equivalent to your proclamation of resignation!! If you wanted us to finish each other off in a simultaneous clash, I'd say that's a pretty interesting move. However, this particular battle will end in my victory!!" Until now, she's used that to severely wound me, and each time, the tiny foundations supporting my heart get split in half. However, if she uses it carelessly, then I can also gleam a little information about the truth. In the last game, I used that to my advantage, especially during the chapel's closed room trick, and almost completely got her boxed in at one point. But she was pretty sly herself. She learned from experience, and since then, she's started using discretion in the timing of her red... This feeling of tension was almost literally like a battle with real swords. This is a high-level intellectual battle. No, not an intellectual battle. This really is twisted logic. This was the world's craziest and worst battle of twisted logic...!!  "And after that, if you proclaim in red that none of the people in this group are the culprit... that's right, that might be a fatal wound to me." "...I'm surprised that you no longer have even an atom of fear for the red, which once terrified you so much... You're quite resilient." "Try taking it out. That treasured sword, that trump card of yours. This time, you might be able to make me surrender with a single stroke, right...?" "...*cackle*cackle*cackle* ...Interesting. I wouldn't have it any other way..." Of course her red's always wiping out my only rays of hope. But... don't be afraid of that. On this island overcome with falsehoods and illusions, the only thing I can trust is... the information she speaks in red. It's my only way across the chasm of hell. Just a single tightrope. Her merciless blood-red blade is the only way I can survive. This isn't just walking on a tightrope, it's like literally walking on the edge of a blade... Of course I'm afraid. Because my victory condition is the denial of witches, then, to use her contrapositive logic, the culprit must be human. But I didn't want to search for a culprit amid the 18. That's what made me stick to a weak position, since I had to claim both that it couldn't be a witch and that it couldn't be one of the 18. Last time, I was unable to understand that, so that's where she hit me, leaving me tattered and defeated. But that's okay. Let her hit me. Let her attack. No problem... Someone said it once in an old sword-fighting movie. That 'A good fortress has one, and only one, intentionally weak point'. The enemy would gather there. They would be lured there. And that would be where the actual battle took place. As long as I understood my weak points, and as long as she wanted to attack those weak points, it was as if I were luring her into launching an attack there... Gauge the distance between us with care...retreating step by step. Make them move forward. The more she recklessly flourished that red, the more chances I would get to strike back. Don't be afraid of the red. Keep her cornered, so that she'll have no choice but to refute me with the red...!   "...Hmph. How surprising that you can be this desperate and yet this difficult. One cannot make light of someone putting their life on the line, no matter what the era. It's no surprise you're Kinzo's grandchild. The more cornered you are, the bolder you become!" "...Ihihihi..."Ronove cleared his throat.  "It appears to be a stalemate. That black tea I worked so hard to make is getting cold, Milady." "...Nng."Ronove, who was supposed to be her ally, roguishly rushed her into making her next move. Beato probably thought she'd managed to smile back and appear confident, but she couldn't hide the sweat building up on her forehead. By now, she had completely lost the confident feeling that had allowed her to turn her nose up at her worthless opponent. Of course, she probably wouldn't be cornered by something like this. She's just being cautious. Until now, I've been inexperienced. I didn't know how to fight, and I wasn't strong enough to be her opponent. However, now that we've reached the third game, she's realized that I'm starting to become more skilled, and she's grown more cautious, thinking every move over carefully... Sure, that's just fine, Beatrice. Sorry to keep you waiting. Are you happy now...? "...Now it's starting to get interesting, huh...? Hihihihi!" "*cackle*cackle*cackle*! Battleeeeeeeeer..." "This isn't getting us anywhere... Then, should we get to the heart of the matter and go with the usual?" "...Hoh. The usual, you say? Then, by all means. If I don't hear you say that, I guess I just won't feel like starting..."The first move was mine... "Here I go, Beato." BGM: Dread of the Grave "..." "...If I hear you say this in red, I'll have no choice but to suspect one of the 18. I won't be able to say a 19th person did it, so all doors will be closed to me." "...However, I believe the culprit definitely isn't one of the 18! There's no way any of those 18 could commit such brutal murders...!!" "..." "I'll say it again. Repetition requested! 'On this island, there are only 18 people'." Whew...! I'd avoided what would've been the worst red for me. If she'd repeated that, I'd be faced with those two worst choices of accepting the witch or suspecting one of the 18, like last time all over again... But Beato hadn't proclaimed my ultimate and greatest weakness in red. She refused to repeat it, even though there was no reason for her not to strike, even though it was a weakness she should've been drooling at. She hadn't sliced me up with red by using that move, which should've been as good as forking a rook and the king...! This was a big sign of my advantage. That's right. The culprit isn't one of the 18. I won't suspect anyone...! And since the culprit isn't a witch either, it means a 19th person exists on this island. And that's you. A person who, as Grandfather's mistress of 30 years, has been secretly living in a hidden mansion in the forest for a long, long time. The 'human' Beatrice...!! 
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Dec 4, 2016 14:57
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Pretty strong play from Battler, at the very least stopping his aversion for the red truth is an important step forward for him in this game. And since it is a game that can be repeated, I like his apparent strategy of focusing on this one theory/potential weak-point as well. Certainly could leave him open to being blindsided, but even if he's wrong he can always make a new theory next time.
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Dec 4, 2016 15:31
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You know, Beatrice likes to bring up her Endless magic power, but it's kind of her biggest weakness. If you think about it, no matter how many loops Battler loses, he just has to prove a witch doesn't exist once, and he wins. If a witch did commit the murders however, he still doesn't lose; so long as he refuses to accept this, he would continue losing forever, but Beatrice would never win. In a weird way, everything about this game is in Battler's favor, so long as he possesses the willpower to keep playing.
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Dec 4, 2016 16:08
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It's important to remember that the Hempel's raven logic only works when two statements are genuinely mutually exclusive and the premises are true. Beato's all humans are foolish example while logically valid can be defeated by attacking the premises. I bet that's going to come up a lot.SardonicTyrant posted:You know, Beatrice likes to bring up her Endless magic power, but it's kind of her biggest weakness. If you think about it, no matter how many loops Battler loses, he just has to prove a witch doesn't exist once, and he wins. If a witch did commit the murders however, he still doesn't lose; so long as he refuses to accept this, he would continue losing forever, but Beatrice would never win. Only as long as a situation where the only non-magical explanations haven't been closed down by red exist. The longer they play, the more things get ruled out.
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Dec 4, 2016 16:34
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CottonWolf posted:It's important to remember that the Hempel's raven logic only works when two statements are genuinely mutually exclusive and the premises are true. Beato's all humans are foolish example while logically valid can be defeated by attacking the premises. I bet that's going to come up a lot. It's not actually logically valid - if it were, one person being wise (the only premise) really would mean that everyone else was foolish. The original statement was "All humans except me are foolish" - that is, "If a human is not me, they are foolish." Let's abbreviate that to "A => B". The contrapositive of that statement is, "If a human is not foolish, they are me," or "(not B) => (not A)". Beatrice's second statement, though, was, "I am wise." This equates to, "If a human is me, they are not foolish," or "(not A) => (not B)", which is actually the converse of the original statement - not logically equivalent at all! This is actually a pretty common fallacy, so I assume it's just another instance of Beatrice trolling Battler. Seems like he's incompetent in multiple fields! EDIT: Actually, her initial explanation of Hempel's Raven is flawed in the same way, which probably contributes to the confusion. Examining all non-ravens tells you nothing about the colour of ravens; what you actually have to do is examine all birds which are not black, and see that none of them are ravens. It then stands to reason that all ravens must be in the remaining group, birds which are black. Zandar fucked around with this message at 18:47 on Dec 4, 2016 |
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Dec 4, 2016 18:19
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CottonWolf posted:Only as long as a situation where the only non-magical explanations haven't been closed down by red exist. The longer they play, the more things get ruled out.
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Dec 4, 2016 18:39
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A bit late, but a new butler has been added to the profiles page.
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Dec 4, 2016 19:19
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Zandar posted:It's not actually logically valid - if it were, one person being wise (the only premise) really would mean that everyone else was foolish. I'm Battler level at logic, evidently. Such incompetence.
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Dec 4, 2016 19:45
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I try, but I cannot follow the Raven's Paradox at all.
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Dec 4, 2016 21:26
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Robindaybird posted:I try, but I cannot follow the Raven's Paradox at all. It's a very complicated way of describing the contrapositive. Let's start with the statement "all squares are rectangles". This statement is true. So we can say "if something is a square, it is a rectangle". The contrapositive of that is "if something is not a rectangle, it is not a square". Because if it were a square, then it would be a rectangle because of the first statement. So the contrapositive is also true. Beatrice is really bad at using the contrapositive, so she says things like "if something is not a square, it is not a rectangle". That statement is obviously not true. Similarly, "if something is a rectangle, it is a square" is another false statement that Beatrice might try to use. For the contrapositive, you need to "not" both sides and also flip their direction. If A implies B, then not B implies not A.
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Dec 4, 2016 21:48
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If it rains, it pours. Contrapositive: If it's not pouring, it's not raining.
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Dec 4, 2016 21:53
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Qrr posted:It's a very complicated way of describing the contrapositive. Thanks, I was trying and failing to write this. More immediately: Claim A: The culprit is a 19th person. Claim B: The culprit is either one of the 18 or a witch. Exactly one of A and B is true, and the other is false. Thus, if Beato can prove that Person 19 doesn't exist, then Battler will be forced to accept that either one of the people he cares about or a magical witch is the culprit.
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Dec 4, 2016 21:53
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You'll notice that the way Umineko uses terms like Devil's proof and Hempel's raven maaaay not correspond exactly with their real definitions. The best you can do is not worry about it too much.
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Dec 4, 2016 21:59
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tiistai posted:You'll notice that the way Umineko uses terms like Devil's proof and Hempel's raven maaaay not correspond exactly with their real definitions. The best you can do is not worry about it too much. I also don't think that they're nearly as useful for proofs as Beatrice thinks. Because you are, after all, still proving the same thing. One of her examples is "humans that are not me are not wise". That's clearly hard to prove because you'd need to look at all humans (or have induction or some other generalization technique). But the contrapositive is "humans that are wise are me". And at first glance that might seem easier to prove, but how are you getting the full list of humans that are wise? How are you proving that it's the full list? You're back to the same stuff you had to prove in the first place. Contrapositives are more useful when applied to a statement that you already know is true and then using it to prove other things. It's not a useless technique but it's not a magical solution to all your problems like Beatrice thinks. But I guess if you're a witch you're obligated to pretend that everything you do is magical. If you get your coffee from a coffee machine, you're not a witch - that's what "demonic" smirking snarking butlers are for.
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Dec 4, 2016 22:12
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Robindaybird posted:I try, but I cannot follow the Raven's Paradox at all. Here is a video that can help. Basically, it's less an extremely convoluted way to refute a given hypothesis (as Beato treats it) and more an illustration of the way people arrive at conclusions by creating a trap of an implausible, impossible to prove hypothesis out of three simple but plausible ideas gathered through confirmation. It's the idea that people arrive at so-called objective truth through the creation of hypotheses and the observations that they make and their effects upon it; scientifically and mathematically , this is done through repeated experiments and proofs, and in everyday life, it's through gathering evidence to support any given idea we might have. In a mystery, a murder mystery in particular, it's a good paradox to bring up because the evidence collected by the designated detective, if observed with the bias of an incomplete hypothesis, doesn't actually point to the truth of whodunit. To bring this back to Umineko: last episode, after the second murder happened, Rosa discovered Jessica's body, and, after reviewing the evidence available to her at the time, came to the hypothesis that Kanon killed Jessica- a plausible enough idea, given that his body was not in the room, they discovered no one else in the room and all entrances and exits to the room were locked. All of these pieces of evidence confirm Rosa's theory- but uh-oh, Battler points out that Kanon couldn't have locked the door because he did not have his master key at the time. This disproves Rosa's hypothesis somewhat but does not disprove it entirely because it isn't a total contradiction- that would only occur if Kanon's body was found during that episode, which it never was by our designated detectives (Battler and Rosa). Further, since they did not have access to the same body of proof, Rosa expanded her hypothesis to encompass all the servants as the killers, because that was the information she had- she believed there were other keys to open the doors, and did not have somebody who spoke the truth in red to contradict that, and would likely not have trusted such a source as it existed. The proof is the same, but because of one or two omissions of evidence, it led to disparate conclusions. So in short, Hempel's Raven's isn't at all what Beato says it is, and this leads us in turn to two conclusions: either she's trolling Battler by giving him an uninformed iudea in order to confuse him and force him into having to prove that each of the 18 people he knows couldn't have done it, or she isn't as clever as she thinks.
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Dec 5, 2016 00:18
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resurgam40 posted:Here is a video that can help. Basically, it's less an extremely convoluted way to refute a given hypothesis (as Beato treats it) and more an illustration of the way people arrive at conclusions by creating a trap of an implausible, impossible to prove hypothesis out of three simple but plausible ideas gathered through confirmation. Honestly, what she's saying is a misuse of the paradox, but it's not at all wrong itself, as earlier posts have demonstrated. The killer is found in either known persons 1-18, unknown persons 19-Nth, or is a Witch. If Beato kills the middle option with the Red Truth, Battler's argument is shut down pretty hard. Unless you say there is a 4th possibility I am missing? oath2order fucked around with this message at 02:56 on Dec 5, 2016 |
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Dec 5, 2016 00:24
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I don't think it's all that surprising that a witch is bad at logic.
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Dec 5, 2016 02:28
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SardonicTyrant posted:I don't think it's all that surprising that a witch is bad at logic. Battler is incompetent, but that doesn't mean that Beatrice isn't.
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Dec 5, 2016 04:24
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 For a while, Beatrice continued to laugh unpleasantly and gloatingly... or maybe spitefully. "...Are you ready? I'll keep going. Again, repeat it." "'There are 19 people or more on this island'!" "..."Beatrice fell silent once again.  The red has already become a foothold for my counterattacks. Now that we know this, it makes the red very risky for the witch. But if she couldn't repeat this, her 'Hempel's Raven' wouldn't be effective. To break my 'Devil's Proof', she would need to settle the existence and number of people outside the 18 in red. That's right. She couldn't break the existence of a 19th person unless she used red. I've closed Beato in, giving her no choice but to speak in red...! There really is... a way to fight... in this witch's game! "It's okay to refuse. If you can't say it in red, that means there's a total of 18+X people on this island." "...That X is a pretty massive piece to lose on your first move, right? After all, from now on, all of the tricks that were impossible for the 18... can be explained with a human X who isn't in that group. This huge piece can break open all the rooms you said were closed because everyone had an alibi...!"It was just like how a chess bishop can cut a thin line through enemy forces as long as there's a slight gap. It could only be effectively used on squares of the same color, but it was very good at controlling territory on the board. "...Nng."It looked like Beato also noticed her current plight. She couldn't just let such an important piece go, especially this close to the beginning of the game... If she pulled out her red treasured sword, it wouldn't be that difficult to save herself from this. But Beato was completely aware that I was expecting it. She was afraid that a careless red truth might end up strangling her own neck...! Because... in the first place, a witch is something that ought to be denied in red.  They can only exist in the valleys between truths. They have a fragile existence, curled up in these cracks, frantically trying to protect themselves from the brutal winds of truth, and they can only barely exist like a mirage by surviving on falsehoods and illusions. In other words, the red, which only witches can use, is the reality that might easily deny their very being. The more they brandish their red words, the more they begin to lose bit by bit that crack in truth inside which they can endure. That's why they don't want to use red words and carelessly lose that crack in truth, which is based on fuzzy information... or illusions, in other words. That's because they understand that they're gradually being cornered. Of course, that bastard will never admit it. Because, if she did, it'd be the same as admitting that she's something that can't exist in this world, like an imaginary number. Don't be afraid. Stay strong...! I know that she's the one who's really been pierced to the bone. After all, her red treasured sword can't be used without a lot of preparation...! "...What's wrong? I'll say it again. Repetition requested! 'There are 19 people or more on this island'!" At the end of Beato's worrying, she took a single deep breath and quietly announced her refusal. ...I thought she'd use it. But Beato refused to speak in red, even though it would cost her victory in the opening part of the game.  "You refused...? Which means that, from now on, I can create as many fictional character Xs outside of the 18 as I want...?" "Do as you wish. I have refused to repeat what you have told me. Isn't that enough for now? The reason for my refusal is... no, I won't tell you yet. Anyway, you'll know soon enough." "...Ihihi. Still acting tough, I see..." "...Choosing not to use the red is another way of using it. You called it my red treasured sword. A pleasant metaphor. I will use it too. A treasured sword is at its best when it is sheathed. In fact, there are times it can instill even more fear because it is sheathed." "That's right. As I fight, I always have to keep in mind whether you might spin everything around with those red words. It's some pretty serious pressure. And there are also times when you make things pretty tough by refusing to repeat after me. Those times, I can't tell if you can't repeat because my guess was right, or if you're just misleading me and letting me flounder about." "If you think of it that way, yeah. It's a sheathed treasured sword." "...So what? If I'm going to push you off a cliff anyway, best to let you climb a bit higher first. We have still barely begun. Much is left to come..." "I'll resign from this challenge. Go and get drunk on your faint victory for now. But only for now."Practically speaking, the early part of the game ended with her being a sore loser. Even so, I couldn't relax my guard at all. That tension didn't fade one bit... until I was greeted by the sound of Ronove's applause...  "Who knows... I still don't know whether I've taken a piece by my move, or whether she guided me into taking it." "...After all, knowing you... You probably know I'm being led into a trap, and that clapping is just you mocking me openly, right...?" "How could you think that? I am innocently celebrating your ability, which has enabled you to take one shot at Milady, even though it is only the first round. In any event, Milady is a person who is quick to become arrogant. I believe that a little encouragement such as this can be good medicine every once in a while." "...This butler of yours sure has a vicious tongue..." "He does, doesn't he? Sometimes he ticks me off as well." "My, my, how incredibly rude of me. Well then, Milady, Battler-sama. How would you like some more black tea? The game has still barely begun. Please allow me to prepare all the tea and snacks needed to adorn this game. I ask that you continue your game without any reservations." "I will. Let's move forward. Now is when it really starts." "...Hmph. Very well. Let us advance the clock. Ronove, black tea please." "Certainly. How about a cookie?" "I don't need one. Give it to Beelzebub to keep her happy. Remain silent for now."While listening to the sound of the demon butler pouring tea, the witch closed her eyes slightly and fell silent. For some time, she was deeply lost in thought, but eventually a roguish glint came into her eyes.  BGM: The Candles Dance "...What...? Bring it on. Show me what you've got." "*cackle*cackle*... Yes, that piece really was big enough that I'd hate to lose it." "...It may be hasty, but allow me to make my move. I won't use the red, but from here on, Rosa will explain on my behalf. Listen."  "Huh? Ah, sorry... M-Me too. I think that too." "...What's wrong, Rosa-san? You've been really quiet for a while now. Are you feelin' sick...?"From the beginning, Rosa had never been one to cut in on the siblings' fights. But even so, she seemed unmotivated... and had said almost nothing during this night's conference. The whole time, she had hung her head... and appeared to be thinking of something else...  "You've been in a daze for a while now. Do you think you can protect the inheritance like that? You're also the mother of your child, so get a stronger hold on yourself." "I-I'm sorry..." "Did you wake up really early in the morning? If you feel sick, you shouldn't overdo it." "...The beds in our guest rooms have been prepared. How about taking a rest? I will guide you." "No, I'm fine. Thank you." "...What is it? Is there something you're worrying about?" "...No, not really..." "Is that so...? It feels like your mind has been elsewhere this whole time. I wonder if that has anything to do with what we've been talking about...?" As if in response, Rosa's shoulders quivered. Apparently, Kyrie's guess hadn't been wrong. Rosa couldn't deny it either...  "...No, umm..."She swallowed whatever it was she had been trying to say and went silent again. Of course, the other siblings also began to realize that something about her appearance was different from usual...  "What is it? You've been weird for a while. Did you think of something...?" "We all just swore to remain united, didn't we? Don't hold back, worryin' by yourself. We said we'd talk." "...Rosa, tell us."The men pressed her one after the other, and Rosa confessed resignedly and nervously... The atmosphere made it seem as though she was confessing to some modest prank, which had inadvertently brought about a serious situation.   "Huh? Isn't it obvious that she's alive? After all, she was able to send that letter to us." "Whether she's in good health or not is a different story though. The woman in that portrait must be getting up there in age by now." "I'd say she's healthy. People who are crafty when it comes to money stay healthy no matter how old they get! Her evil plan might even be the best rejuvenating agent. Wahahaha." "...She shouldn't be... alive." "Huh? ...What did you just say?" BGM: Witch of the Painting  "Wh-What did you say...?!" "...Wh-What do you mean, Rosa...?!"  It was so sudden that everyone was lost for words. Rosa kept on talking, unable to stop, holding her head as her hair flew all about...  "Calm yourself...! Rosa-san...!" "I-I have absolutely no clue what's goin' on...! Already dead? What do ya mean...?!" "...I think it means two things. First, its literal meaning. And second, it backs up our earlier guess." "Which means... Rosa... has met with Beatrice, right?" "I-I've never heard Rosa mention anything like this. Rosa, when was it? When could you possibly have met Beatrice?!" "...Calm down! Nobody's blaming you for anything, right? First, drink some water. Okay? Natsuhi-san, the pitcher please." "Y-Yes. Here you go, Rosa-san. Please, calm yourself..." "..." 
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Dec 5, 2016 14:29
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Those of you who followed the last LP: Rejoice! This is as far as it ever got. From here on, you're on equal footing with the newbies.
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Dec 5, 2016 14:30
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In celebration, let me talk about the extra TIPS. Besides the episodes proper, Ryukishi07 also occasionally wrote some supplementary material for Umineko. These are often called extra arcs or TIPS and their contents are pretty varied. Most of them are written like his usual prose, much like side stories. Some are light-hearted and comedic, some are more serious, some don't really reveal much anything, some pretty much spell out solutions. Some of them could be considered canon to the actual story, some clearly not. These story TIPS were eventually compiled into the same visual novel format as the original episodes, but let's leave that stuff for later. Some TIPS are basically short articles about the themes of Umineko, such as this one: Anti-Fantasy vs. Anti-Mystery. Spoiler warning for some Higurashi content, although if you're unfamiliar with it, the spoilers are not really explicit. As the translator of this TIP notes, it was distributed at Comiket 74 where EP3 was also sold. It's also the second TIP released. The first one, "Important Facts Concerning Magic", was after EP2 and is about Beatrice telling Maria and the reader, well, some facts about magic - however, it has not been translated. In Anti-Fantasy vs. Anti-Mystery, Ryukishi07 discusses some facets of the solvability of mystery novels as himself but also through the voices of Beatrice and Ronove.
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Dec 5, 2016 17:16
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Seems like a cruel place to cliffhanger the last LP!
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Dec 5, 2016 17:28
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Seriously. The last line of the previous lp was Rosa claiming to have killed Beatrice. I've been trying to figure out for a month how the hell you quit there, of all places. How are people feeling about all the Critical Thinking 101 talk that has taken up the early portions of this episode? Long discussions about logical reasoning in totally anime contexts is one of the things that first drew me to the series.
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Dec 5, 2016 17:40
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Episode 3 was originally going to be a much harder, more brutal story called Land of the Golden Witch. However, players found EP2 much more difficult than R07 expected, so what we have now is the slightly kinder Banquet, which will give a lot of hints towards understanding the story. Of course, solving it will still be impossible, because your opponent is the Endless Witch.
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Dec 5, 2016 17:45
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Must've suck for people reading the last LP being blue-balled here until they played it themselves, waited for this LP, or the worst of all watched the terrible anime. Anybody here follow the older LP and didn't see anything beyond this point?
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Dec 5, 2016 18:49
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Me. I'm too lazy to play a VN. I watched the anime but all I remember is that after reaching this part it goes completely insane.
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Dec 5, 2016 18:54
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ProfessorProf posted:Episode 3 was originally going to be a much harder, more brutal story called Land of the Golden Witch. However, players found EP2 much more difficult than R07 expected, so what we have now is the slightly kinder Banquet, which will give a lot of hints towards understanding the story. To elaborate on this a bit, R07 actively followed fan reactions, feedback and theories and sometimes modified the stories he was writing to reflect these. Scrapping the original EP3 was probably the biggest change. Many people gave up thinking because of the magic scenes in EP2, convinced Umineko was purely a fantasy and that there was no point in trying to solve it. Of course that's true, there's no way you can beat the witch, but Anti-Mystery vs. Anti-Fantasy was also perhaps written in response to the despair of these fans.
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Dec 5, 2016 18:55
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tiistai posted:To elaborate on this a bit, R07 actively followed fan reactions, feedback and theories and sometimes modified the stories he was writing to reflect these. Scrapping the original EP3 was probably the biggest change. Many people gave up thinking because of the magic scenes in EP2, convinced Umineko was purely a fantasy and that there was no point in trying to solve it. Of course that's true, there's no way you can beat the witch, but Anti-Mystery vs. Anti-Fantasy was also perhaps written in response to the despair of these fans. Ryukishi's relationship with Umineko's increasingly rabid fandom is...interesting, to say the least.
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Dec 5, 2016 19:09
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tiistai posted:To elaborate on this a bit, R07 actively followed fan reactions, feedback and theories and sometimes modified the stories he was writing to reflect these. Scrapping the original EP3 was probably the biggest change. Many people gave up thinking because of the magic scenes in EP2, convinced Umineko was purely a fantasy and that there was no point in trying to solve it. Of course that's true, there's no way you can beat the witch, but Anti-Mystery vs. Anti-Fantasy was also perhaps written in response to the despair of these fans. I do think changing things around to not be so magical was a sensible choice, because based off of episode 2, I was expecting episode 3 to have even more lightsabers, goats, and demon high schoolers. If the author changed things around to counter those expectations, then I have no idea what's going to next now. oath2order posted:Ryukishi's relationship with Umineko's increasingly rabid fandom is...interesting, to say the least. Oh? Do tell...
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Dec 5, 2016 19:22
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Let's shelve the R07 VS R07's Fans discussion until later on. It gets deep into the nature of the last two episodes of the game.
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Dec 5, 2016 19:24
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Ah okay. I can only assume that those tidbits are going to be quite juicy by then.
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Dec 5, 2016 19:36
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Sindai posted:Me. I'm too lazy to play a VN. I started/tried watching the show along side this LP until I accidentally spoiled all the last 3 servants deaths of episode 1, then I decided it was a bad idea since this VN/LP has done everything better anyway. Now I am curious how this game ramps up when it's pretty batshit insane already.
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Dec 5, 2016 19:51
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...Yeah, this probably wasn't the best spot for me to have hit terminal levels of distraction and lack of motivation. Apologies for the cliffhanger blue balls, readers of the last thread. And congrats to Prof for catching up/being poised to pass me in something like a tenth the time it took me to get there in the first place.
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Dec 5, 2016 23:09
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Shiny777 posted:...Yeah, this probably wasn't the best spot for me to have hit terminal levels of distraction and lack of motivation. Apologies for the cliffhanger blue balls, readers of the last thread. Hey, nobody can be blamed for not matching this pretty insane update-pace.
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Dec 5, 2016 23:19
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Shiny777 posted:...Yeah, this probably wasn't the best spot for me to have hit terminal levels of distraction and lack of motivation. Apologies for the cliffhanger blue balls, readers of the last thread. To be clear, I mean in no way to disparage the hard work you put into the last LP. SSLPs are a lot of work, Umineko is a daunting project, and I've certainly given up on easier. Thanks for your hard work; from here, I'll be moving forward from retreading it and onto new territory.
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Dec 5, 2016 23:58
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So Rosa killed Beatrice almost 30 years ago. Like, a metaphorical killing? Or is a middle aged lady totes dead now because of Rosa, in which case I'm just gonna go ahead and blame Krauss, Eva, or Kinzo for. Also, I do want to hear about R07 vs fans. When the time is right, though.
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Dec 6, 2016 00:11
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tiistai posted:To elaborate on this a bit, R07 actively followed fan reactions, feedback and theories and sometimes modified the stories he was writing to reflect these. Scrapping the original EP3 was probably the biggest change. Many people gave up thinking because of the magic scenes in EP2, convinced Umineko was purely a fantasy and that there was no point in trying to solve it. Of course that's true, there's no way you can beat the witch, but Anti-Mystery vs. Anti-Fantasy was also perhaps written in response to the despair of these fans. Interesting...so, the fact that none of these magical events happened within the sight of the designated detective of this story piqued the interest of these fans who gave up? Or the fact that all the witnesses of magical happenings ended up dead before the end of the story? I guess I don't suppose I can blame them, I was about ready to throw in the towel when they started bringing frigging lightsabers into the story myself... But then I noticed something I think is important. I think back to the first episode and the events that transpired there; things were creepy and otherworldly in a David Lynch sort of way, but they still transpired in ways that don't need the supernatural to explain them. And that episode told us in the preamble that the things we saw could be relied upon to be true, something that the preamble of the second episode explicitly does not say. Therefore, the events happening on the screen might not have happened the way we saw them; been visualizations, or perhaps metaphors for what took place... or been fabrications entirely by Beatrice. And the mystery then, the defeat of this "fantasy", is finding out what's really behind all the things that happen when our hapless Battler isn't around to see them.
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Dec 6, 2016 00:26
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I think in general fan dissatisfaction was they expected a full-out mystery story, and got anime fantasy stuff added into the mix without much warning. Higurashi, which came before, also had a supernatural vibe to it but that came much later in the story. Higurashi eases the supernatural aspect in slowly, but Umineko throws you into shark infested waters ala episode 2.
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Dec 6, 2016 00:52
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ProfessorProf posted:To be clear, I mean in no way to disparage the hard work you put into the last LP. SSLPs are a lot of work, Umineko is a daunting project, and I've certainly given up on easier. No worries, I didn't take it that way. I'm just glad this is getting past where I burned out, and impressed you've kept up the rapid update pace so far into this behemoth.
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Dec 6, 2016 00:59
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| # ? May 14, 2024 07:50 |
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In addition, most people haven't heard of the literary concept of an "unreliable narrator", which leads to people thinking that Walter White is a good person, or that the book Lolita is espousing the virtues of pedophilia (it's the opposite). A lot of people must have taken things at face value when Kanon started going super saiyan, and then thought "gently caress, what's the point of a mystery novel if there's going to be magical stuff involved in the crime scenes?", and left. Perhaps this story is the opposite of Higurashi in that instead of starting off normal but needing magic to understand the whole story, it starts magical but as the story progresses becomes a normal situation. I'm excited to see what happens next. Also interested in how Rosa has a confirmed body count in her backstory all causally.
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Dec 6, 2016 01:07
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