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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Right now is probably not a good time to predict the death of the Republican party. They're more likely to cement their power for a generation with legal barriers. i agree but i'd like at least an ounce of hope via that NC case causing those districts getting struck down before i resign myself to the dark abyss of despair that awaits all leftists for the next 4 years McCrory conceded today too so i'm glad that we're not at the point that they can wholesale steal elections yet 
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Dec 6, 2016 00:25
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After this election, I think it's safe to say anyone who says "the Republicans are nearly dead" should be mocked into silence.
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Dec 6, 2016 00:26
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Personally, I like the fact that Republicans only need to win control of one more state legislature to call a convention to amend the constitution! Clearly, a party on its way into the dustbin of history.
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Dec 6, 2016 00:29
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theflyingorc posted:I was pretty certain there was a high level of self-selection bias for it? It's also extremely susceptible to "shy voters" as a phenomenon? 2004 is literally one of the few instances where exit polling failed and has been extensively written about as a result. In general, exit polling is just about the single most reliable form of polling you can do (if done right). As a result, international election observers use it as their main test for whether there has been election fraud in the observed country. Unfortunately the republicans defunded the US election control board and made sure that getting the raw exit poll data is way more difficult in the US than in countries that US election observers go to. You mentioned the 2004 thing: as far as I can tell academic papers are about split on whether or not the exit poll discrepancy indicates voter fraud, but NEP, the company that sponsored the exit polls, has not released the raw polling data that would make a conclusive test available.
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Dec 6, 2016 00:29
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Business Gorillas posted:yeah i don't see the republicans surviving when their only contributions for a generation are Bush Jr, the Tea Party, and Trump in 2020. the only way they stay in power is if that NC gerrymandering case is spiked Even if it isn't, the guys who stand to inherit the Republican Party's apparatus have about as much in common with Bush and Reagan as Lyndon LaRouche has with Hillary Clinton
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Dec 6, 2016 00:30
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Khisanth Magus posted:In that case i think it really says something about how dumb liberal voters really are that they would prefer to lose one of the most aggressive liberals in Congress to give him a completely symbolic job. A lot of voters of every stripe are into the whole symbolic thing.
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Dec 6, 2016 00:32
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MizPiz posted:After this election, I think it's safe to say anyone who says "the Republicans are nearly dead" should be mocked into silence. If 2008 with two wars and a collapsed economy couldn't kill the Republican Party then nothing will. The Republicans running based on obstruction and Trump, and being rewarded for it, cemented it. Edit: I remember the threads from eight years ago proclaiming the death of the Republican Party and they keep clawing themselves back up by their bootstraps or something. And drat, I've been on the same internet forum for over 13 years. I don't know if that's awesome or depressing.
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Dec 6, 2016 00:34
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You have a two party system, neither party is going to die. Until a third party emerges to push one of the two out, it literally doesn't matter what happens in the world, or the economy, or how bad the available candidates are.
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Dec 6, 2016 00:35
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botany posted:You have a two party system, neither party is going to die. Until a third party emerges to push one of the two out, it literally doesn't matter what happens in the world, or the economy, or how bad the available candidates are. yeah the fundraising machine and the brand are too useful to go anywhere; the people and ideology calling the shots within have changed dramatically in recent history, but if you look at Boehner's resignation and Trump's ascendancy and just see REPUBLICANS, BAD MEN, NOT DEMOCRATS then yeah nothing is ever going to change as far as you're concerned.
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Dec 6, 2016 00:39
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MizPiz posted:After this election, I think it's safe to say anyone who says "the Republicans are nearly dead" should be mocked into silence. considering people were getting mocked into silence for suggesting that Trump was winning, i'm not sure your face is big enough for all that egg establishment republicans like ryan and mcconnell are already worthless cucks to Trump voters. they don't like the republican party, they like trump. i mean, we're already starting to see cracks form as trump voters are recoiling in horror from the amount of Goldman Sachs goons being selected for his cabinet. as soon as people feel betrayed and the angry mob trump whipped up with empty promises starts baying for blood, trump's thin skin will blow up whatever new coalition they thought they had.
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Dec 6, 2016 00:40
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i firmly believe in two things: the reaction that will come from people who voted for other people to lose their benefits, only to lose theirs (they were one of the good ones because they earned it, you see), and the reaction when trump starts getting heckled by said former supporters at the third round of his "Thank You, America!" tours
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Dec 6, 2016 00:44
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Business Gorillas posted:i firmly believe in two things: the reaction that will come from people who voted for other people to lose their benefits, only to lose theirs (they were one of the good ones because they earned it, you see), and the reaction when trump starts getting heckled by said former supporters at the third round of his "Thank You, America!" tours and if the DNC decides to again cozy up with wall street (who had just left them for the GOP) it'll be 3.5/7.5/11.5/the united states will stop existing after this one
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Dec 6, 2016 00:53
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Business Gorillas posted:i agree but i'd like at least an ounce of hope via that NC case causing those districts getting struck down before i resign myself to the dark abyss of despair that awaits all leftists for the next 4 years The reason that the Greek myth of Pandora's Box tells that Hope was the last secret held snapped shut within the box is that hope is a deceit and a torment. That's the whole point of the story.
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Dec 6, 2016 00:52
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Khisanth Magus posted:The "Bernie being the VP pick would mean Trump would have lost" is dependent upon the assumption that liberal voters are dumb enough to not know how the government works because he could have done a gently caress ton more in the Senate under a democratic president that he would in a position where the highest profile thing he will have is the onion articles. ...we didn't need liberal voters. We just needed working class rust belt people to not switch sides.
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Dec 6, 2016 00:55
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theflyingorc posted:...we didn't need ... voters Clinton camp political strategy still goin strong 
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Dec 6, 2016 00:57
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Anime Schoolgirl posted:and they'll withstand 1.5 years of more of that poo poo not to get too insane but its going to be really interesting watching the people that put trump in the white house react when he puts all of the poo poo they thought they were voting against put into overdrive
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Dec 6, 2016 00:59
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theflyingorc posted:...we didn't need liberal voters. We just needed working class rust belt people to not switch sides. or minorities to have a stronger turn out, or a sane election system.
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Dec 6, 2016 01:00
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(((Trump))) stabbed us in the back!
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Dec 6, 2016 01:01
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Business Gorillas posted:not to get too insane but its going to be really interesting watching the people that put trump in the white house react when he puts all of the poo poo they thought they were voting against put into overdrive the few people that live learn the error of their ways and become socialist advocates, but there are always new people inducted into sweet easy lies
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Dec 6, 2016 01:02
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botany posted:or minorities to have a stronger turn out, or a sane election system. or better polling, or James Comey to not be garbage, or for Benghazi to have not happened, or a billion things
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Dec 6, 2016 01:04
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Business Gorillas posted:i agree but i'd like at least an ounce of hope via that NC case causing those districts getting struck down before i resign myself to the dark abyss of despair that awaits all leftists for the next 4 years McCrory also talked up voter fraud, which is still Not A Thing, so expect Republicans to go all in on it.
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Dec 6, 2016 01:06
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Anime Schoolgirl posted:yes, and you know what they did in the reagan and bush years when their programs were being dismantled? die off. i agree that this will end up with a lot of dead boomers and i can't think of a better way to watch them go than watching them strangle themselves in spite considering how eager the republicans are with relitigating the culture war, i'm not too sure about your second point, though. if they realize that they need to become a libertarian party to survive, however, we're going to be in serious trouble
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Dec 6, 2016 01:08
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theflyingorc posted:...we didn't need liberal voters. We just needed working class rust belt people to not switch sides.
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Dec 6, 2016 01:14
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cheese posted:Or maybe get a few million of the like 130m adult Americans who don't vote to show up to the polls.
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Dec 6, 2016 01:16
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Young people just don't vote and it drives me loving crazy.
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Dec 6, 2016 01:18
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Samurai Sanders posted:That is seriously so many people. I know they have lots of different reasons, many of which can't be addressed by technical issues of how to run the election itself, but...drat. 
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Dec 6, 2016 01:18
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Young people just don't vote and it drives me loving crazy. However I was thrown a curve ball when I went to another state for college, like many people do. I missed an election there from not registering for absentee voting soon enough. Samurai Sanders fucked around with this message at 01:25 on Dec 6, 2016 |
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Dec 6, 2016 01:20
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Young people just don't vote and it drives me loving crazy. I typically hadn't in past elections. But I seriously don't understand how so many young people saw Donald Trump was the nominee and didn't run to the polls. I wasn't politically active until the Republicans nominated a stupid bigoted fascist, and I thought there would be a lot more people like me out there.
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Dec 6, 2016 01:26
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Young people just don't vote and it drives me loving crazy. "have you tried running a candidate that appeals to young people?" *crickets*
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Dec 6, 2016 01:26
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Gyra_Solune posted:it is hard to believe the GOP is disintegrating when they have assured control of the entire federal government for 4 years, and have full, complete, unilateral control of 26 states, compared to the democrats 6 In a midterm election with their party in the White House, Republicans will be defending governorships in Nevada, New Mexico, Arizona, Georgia, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Illinois Wisconsin, Michigan, Maryland, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine. You don't think Democrats have any chance of winning more than one of these gubernatorial elections after what is likely to be a disastrous two years for Trump?
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Dec 6, 2016 01:27
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Business Gorillas posted:"have you tried running a candidate that appeals to young people?" They did, his name was Obama, and while the numbers were better they were still awful.
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Dec 6, 2016 01:26
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Gyra_Solune posted:it is hard to believe the GOP is disintegrating when they have assured control of the entire federal government for 4 years, and have full, complete, unilateral control of 26 states, compared to the democrats 6 Y'know, I don't know if the comparison has been made, but there are a lot of parallels with Clinton's run for President and Martha Coakley's run for Governor. Other than the obvious fact that they're both women, Coakley is also an establishment Democrat who thought she had the election in the bag and was completely tone-deaf to working class white people.
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Dec 6, 2016 01:27
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Ollu posted:was completely tone-deaf to working class people.
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Dec 6, 2016 01:31
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Anime Schoolgirl posted:fixed; she also lost working class latino and black voters working class is a dogwhistle for racist 
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Dec 6, 2016 01:32
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Business Gorillas posted:"have you tried running a candidate that appeals to young people?" 
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Dec 6, 2016 01:37
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theflyingorc posted:They did, his name was Obama, and while the numbers were better they were still awful.
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Dec 6, 2016 01:38
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botany posted:or minorities to have a stronger turn out, or a sane election system. Seems like any one thing would have been enough. Yet so many of those things can and did go just enough wrong that it's maybe not a good idea to ignore certain voters because you think you're covered.
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Dec 6, 2016 01:38
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Young people just don't vote and it drives me loving crazy. theflyingorc posted:They did, his name was Obama, and while the numbers were better they were still awful. cheese fucked around with this message at 01:41 on Dec 6, 2016 |
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Dec 6, 2016 01:39
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Nermal posted:Have a genuine go at understanding it from their point of view. Wanted to return to this for a sec I view GMI/UBI as more akin to the Alaska Permanent Fund dividends: each citizen is entitled to at least some share of the wealth created by society at large
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Dec 6, 2016 01:54
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a shameful boehner posted:Personally, I like the fact that Republicans only need to win control of one more state legislature to call a convention to amend the constitution! At that point I'd give the USA twenty years before a 1793.
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Dec 6, 2016 01:59
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