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Carlosologist
Oct 13, 2013

Revelry in the Dark

apparently the deal has an opt-out after three years, so it's a better deal than the one Melancon signed if he doesn't get hurt

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TheFlyingLlama
Jan 2, 2013

You really think someone would do that? Just go on the internet and be a llama?



KICK BAMA KICK posted:

This is probably a stupid question but as a fan of a rebuilding team I've been curious about it -- does ownership give front offices a long-term budget over a few years? Like I don't give a gently caress about Liberty Media's balance sheet but should I actually give a poo poo if the Braves keep payroll down because they'll have more to spend later when they expect to be competitive?

From some of Coppy's old twitter Q/As it doesn't look like it really works that way. Hard to say though, especially with the Braves. The Rumor is that Liberty is trying to get the team ready for sale with the new stadium, but who the gently caress even knows.

Rand alPaul
Feb 3, 2010

by Nyc_Tattoo

Dexo posted:


Now if the reason you don't like the deal is because of Chapman's DV issues. Then sure lament away. But oh no, the Yankees over paid someone. Like they still won't be able to back up the 400m dollar Brinks truck for Harper when the time is right.

Harper's demands from the Yankees probably just went up another $100MM if they're throwing that money at a closer.

Inspector_666
Oct 7, 2003

benny with the good hair

ihatepants posted:

As much as I love him, I hope the Yankees trade Dellin for a huge return now.

Apparently their asking price was prohibitive last season, and I doubt its come down since then.

I hope they hold on to Dellin, even though closers are volatile, etc. He's a hometown kid!

Carlosologist posted:

apparently the deal has an opt-out after three years, so it's a better deal than the one Melancon signed if he doesn't get hurt

Is it a full opt-out? I was seeing that the NTC lapsed after 3 years. Now that I've written that, though, a full opt-out makes more sense.

ihatepants
Nov 5, 2011

Let the burning of pants commence. These things drive me nuts.



Rand alPaul posted:

Harper's demands from the Yankees probably just went up another $100MM if they're throwing that money at a closer.

It's not like they haven't done this before, though. Mariano was being paid nearly the same amount (due to inflation) through his age 42 and 43 seasons.

Inspector_666
Oct 7, 2003

benny with the good hair

ihatepants posted:

It's not like they haven't done this before, though. Mariano was being paid nearly the same amount (due to inflation) through his age 42 and 43 seasons.

You read that and think "ugh" but then you look at the numbers and it's just :allears:

Mo was the best.

Dexo
Aug 15, 2009

A city that was to live by night after the wilderness had passed. A city that was to forge out of steel and blood-red neon its own peculiar wilderness.

Darude - Adam Sandstorm posted:

You seem very angry about a lot of things.

?

That really comes off as anger?

Professor Funk
Aug 4, 2008

WE ALL KNOW WHAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN
I feel like I'm living through last offseason again with people (on Twitter etc.) talking about Betances/Chapman and K/9. It doesn't matter; the Yankees are going to win like 76 games next year.

CubsWoo
Aug 17, 2005

Where the big boys RAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRGH FUCK YOU
Good for Chapman. The Cubs probably don't win the World Series without him and he gets a ring and a big payday. All the best. Say hi to Torres when he comes up.

Also apparently the Royals price for Davis at the deadline was Schwarber so I guess everything works out in the end.

E: Chapman's no-trade to California teams may be due to the state's gun laws, not taxes

Jen X
Sep 29, 2014

To bring light to the darkness, whether that darkness be ignorance, injustice, apathy, or stagnation.
That's a lot of money for Chapman, but what it means is that l can't wait to see Jansen's 6/120 contract

Inspector_666
Oct 7, 2003

benny with the good hair

Professor Funk posted:

I feel like I'm living through last offseason again with people (on Twitter etc.) talking about Betances/Chapman and K/9. It doesn't matter; the Yankees are going to win like 76 games next year.

I don't see the win count dropping so precipitously since their offense should actually be (even if just marginally) better this year.

The signing isn't for 2017 anyway though, nobody should be under that illusion.

Niwrad
Jul 1, 2008

It's overpaying for him but he's one of the best closers in the game and they're the loving Yankees so money doesn't matter that much.

Mr. Meagles
Apr 30, 2004

Out here, everything hurts


GeneX posted:

That's a lot of money for Chapman, but what it means is that l can't wait to see Jansen's 6/120 contract

i scrolled past this post and spontaneously got a crazy nosebleed, I haven't had one in like 25 years.

I don't know what that means.

KICK BAMA KICK
Mar 2, 2009

TheFlyingLlama posted:

From some of Coppy's old twitter Q/As it doesn't look like it really works that way. Hard to say though, especially with the Braves. The Rumor is that Liberty is trying to get the team ready for sale with the new stadium, but who the gently caress even knows.
Interesting. Liberty did do that weird deal where they spun off the Braves into their own stock thing.

Inspector_666
Oct 7, 2003

benny with the good hair

Niwrad posted:

It's overpaying for him but he's one of the best closers in the game and they're the loving Yankees so money doesn't matter that much.

Somebody on another site just pointed this out to me, but the Yankees are paying him a (2016 value) QO every year.

So yeah, he could blow up any day but so can any pitcher. How many years do you think it would be until Chapman wasn't worth a QO given his performance to date?

EDIT: https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/806728014146859008

Inspector_666 fucked around with this message at 06:14 on Dec 8, 2016

Sydin
Oct 29, 2011

Another spring commute
I imagine Jansen is going to move pretty quickly now, the question is which of the remaining Dodgers/Nationals/Marlins will overpay the most for him?

Dexo
Aug 15, 2009

A city that was to live by night after the wilderness had passed. A city that was to forge out of steel and blood-red neon its own peculiar wilderness.

Niwrad posted:

It's overpaying for him but he's one of the best closers in the game and they're the loving Yankees so money doesn't matter that much.

Thank you. I thought I was a crazy person.


Edit -
Man it'd be dope if the Cubs paid 80 mil for Jansen


Jansen and Davis would be cool and good.

Dexo fucked around with this message at 06:18 on Dec 8, 2016

Dexo
Aug 15, 2009

A city that was to live by night after the wilderness had passed. A city that was to forge out of steel and blood-red neon its own peculiar wilderness.
Dbl post

Inspector_666
Oct 7, 2003

benny with the good hair
https://twitter.com/DSzymborski/status/806728756056322048

CubsWoo
Aug 17, 2005

Where the big boys RAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRGH FUCK YOU

Inspector_666 posted:

Somebody on another site just pointed this out to me, but the Yankees are paying him a (2016 value) QO every year.

So yeah, he could blow up any day but so can any pitcher. How many years do you think it would be until Chapman wasn't worth a QO given his performance to date?

The last 5 years his WAR floor has been 1.9 in a year he only pitched 54 innings. His stats since 2012:

1.84 ERA, 181 SV, 313.2 IP, 64 ER, 127 BB, 546 K, 216 ERA+, 0.940 WHIP, 4.30 K/BB ratio

As long as losing 2-3 MPH off his fastball doesn't make him instantly hittable I think he can stay a 2+ WAR closer through the whole contract.

Mr. Meagles
Apr 30, 2004

Out here, everything hurts



i loving love twitter

Inspector_666
Oct 7, 2003

benny with the good hair

CubsWoo posted:

As long as losing 2-3 MPH off his fastball doesn't make him instantly hittable I think he can stay a 2+ WAR closer through the whole contract.

This is pretty much exactly how I feel about it. He's also got secondary pitches and I do actually trust the Yankees to be able to get guys with declining velocity to work their stuff better (see CC.) And we're talking about declining to what, high 90s?

Tom Gorman posted:

i loving love twitter

I've decided to use it more and baseball writers are loving savage and I love it.

Vernacular
Nov 29, 2004
Losing Jansen would be sad. "Pedro Baez, Closer" is a very melancholy prospect. Conversely, not paying a reliever $80 million+ while getting a #13 pick (if he goes to the Marlins) would be cool and good. IDK.

Popete
Oct 6, 2009

This will make sure you don't suggest to the KDz
That he should grow greens instead of crushing on MCs

Grimey Drawer
My main reason for not wanting to hold on to Chapman is that he seems super volatile. If he loses a tick off his velocity he becomes pretty drat hittable because he doesn't throw much else. His control is already pretty shaky but he gets around it by getting guys to start their swing early and miss on terrible pitches out of the zone.

If he loses a bit of velocity in 2-3 years and he can't control it, it's over.

Intruder
Mar 5, 2003

I got a taste for blown saves
Correct, if Chapman ceases to be a good closer over the next few years then he's screwed, and he's shown signs that this is imminent such as

Sydin
Oct 29, 2011

Another spring commute

Intruder posted:

Correct, if Chapman ceases to be a good closer over the next few years then he's screwed, and he's shown signs that this is imminent such as

No no no see Maddon over using Chapman and forcing him to throw multiple innings multiple games in a row until he got fatigued and couldn't throw 100+ in Game 7 is proof that he's doomed! The Cubs foresaw it, you're all fools for thinking he'll continue to be dominant! Fools!

Dexo
Aug 15, 2009

A city that was to live by night after the wilderness had passed. A city that was to forge out of steel and blood-red neon its own peculiar wilderness.
Efb^^^

His velocity has only ever gone down when Maddon used him like a loving workhorse and overworked him hard.

CubsWoo
Aug 17, 2005

Where the big boys RAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRGH FUCK YOU
Chapman will be 29 entering this season and he has under 400 innings on his arm including the playoffs. He's young enough that a velocity decline isn't automatic and young enough that if the decline happens it can be worked around and compensated for.

He was taking it easy on fastballs that rung up at 98-99 in the regular season and I think he touched 105 at least once.

Popete
Oct 6, 2009

This will make sure you don't suggest to the KDz
That he should grow greens instead of crushing on MCs

Grimey Drawer

Intruder posted:

Correct, if Chapman ceases to be a good closer over the next few years then he's screwed, and he's shown signs that this is imminent such as

Pitchers lose velocity that's not controversial at all. Chapman does not have a lot of control over his fastball but to this point it hasn't mattered much because its so drat fast that it doesn't need to be in the zone to get guys to swing.

It's not inconceivable that in a few years if he drops down to the upper 90s guys will be able to lay off bad pitches and either take a lot of walks off him or sit dead center fastball like a pitching machine.

Granted this could all happen after his contract expires, but I always had an uneasy feeling when he was in a game because he can get very wild at times.

Darude - Adam Sandstorm
Aug 16, 2012

Vernacular posted:

Losing Jansen would be sad. "Pedro Baez, Closer" is a very melancholy prospect. Conversely, not paying a reliever $80 million+ while getting a #13 pick (if he goes to the Marlins) would be cool and good. IDK.

You don't get the Marlins pick.






https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/806733910042255360

Darude - Adam Sandstorm fucked around with this message at 06:39 on Dec 8, 2016

UZR IS BULLSHIT
Jan 25, 2004

Vernacular posted:

Losing Jansen would be sad. "Pedro Baez, Closer" is a very melancholy prospect. Conversely, not paying a reliever $80 million+ while getting a #13 pick (if he goes to the Marlins) would be cool and good. IDK.

Comparing a 13 pick to one of the best players on the team smdh

Dexo
Aug 15, 2009

A city that was to live by night after the wilderness had passed. A city that was to forge out of steel and blood-red neon its own peculiar wilderness.


Turns out he's underpaid :v:

Inspector_666
Oct 7, 2003

benny with the good hair
So if he loses a few MPH he ends up with a high-90s FB and a mid-80s slider, both of which he throws for strikes about 60% of the time.

Like every other good closer in baseball. Again, do you think that's worth QO money?

Inspector_666 fucked around with this message at 06:43 on Dec 8, 2016

Intruder
Mar 5, 2003

I got a taste for blown saves
The argument seems to boil down to "If the good player who was just signed becomes bad then this was a bad deal"

Popete
Oct 6, 2009

This will make sure you don't suggest to the KDz
That he should grow greens instead of crushing on MCs

Grimey Drawer
For 29 other teams I don't think Chapman is worth the money. But as many have said it's the Yankees so what do they care? They have the closer spot locked down for awhile.

If the Cubs had signed that deal, outside of my personal feelings I still wouldn't have liked it. Chapman is fantastic but if he is hampering out ability to sign FAs next year then I don't think it's worth it.

My point is that Chapman seems to me, like a lot of power fastball pitchers to be at a higher risk to lose it. Doesn't mean it will happen but if it does and he was taking up a big chunk of the budget that would be real tough to swallow.

Popete fucked around with this message at 06:49 on Dec 8, 2016

Darude - Adam Sandstorm
Aug 16, 2012

I don't personally think its worth signing Chapman at any price.

Vernacular
Nov 29, 2004

Darude - Adam Sandstorm posted:

You don't get the Marlins pick.

Who does, then?

UZR IS BULLSHIT posted:

Comparing a 13 pick to one of the best players on the team smdh

The main point of comparison was the "$80+ million" part. If they can swing it financially without getting too out of whack with new CBA rules or jeopardizing a JT reunion, then yeah, do it please.

Carlosologist
Oct 13, 2013

Revelry in the Dark

I don't like the Chapman deal because he sucks as a person. I sort of like it because its effectively a three year deal, and as long as he throws 100+ and keeps his walks down, he's going to be electric whenever he pitches. the Yanks won't be doing much winning next year, so his arm will be relatively fresh next time they're competing in the playoffs

Inspector_666
Oct 7, 2003

benny with the good hair

Vernacular posted:

Who does, then?

Everybody moves up a slot.

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Darude - Adam Sandstorm
Aug 16, 2012

Vernacular posted:

Who does, then?


It vanishes and the team that offered the QO gets a sandwich pick.

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