2016 Economic Crisis Thread - Duck and Cover?

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Will the global economy implode in 2016?
	We're hosed - I have stocked up on canned goods
	My private security guards will shoot the paupers
	We'll be good or at least coast along
	I have no earthly clue

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VitalSigns: Sep 3, 2011

shrike82 posted:

Trump saved 1000 Carrier jobs and created 50000 new ones through a deal with Sprint. What has Obama done?

I guess you were in middle school or something when the auto bailout happened huh

# ? Dec 8, 2016 05:26

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# ? May 14, 2024 13:18

Bip Roberts: Mar 29, 2005

shrike82 posted:

Trump saved 1000 Carrier jobs and created 50000 new ones through a deal with Sprint. What has Obama done?

By these metrics saved 1.2 million jobs with the auto bailout.

# ? Dec 8, 2016 05:39

On Terra Firma: Feb 12, 2008

Bip Roberts posted:

By these metrics saved 1.2 million jobs with the auto bailout.

We (America) also made money through financing the deal that bailed them out so not only did he save those jobs, he turned a profit.

# ? Dec 8, 2016 06:20

Grognan: Jan 23, 2007; by Fluffdaddy

namaste faggots posted:

Obama only achieved full us employment

not at all really?

# ? Dec 8, 2016 06:40

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/12/02/504115031/unemployment-rate-drops-to-4-6-percent-lowest-level-since-2007

quote:

Unemployment dropped by 0.3 percentage points, to 4.6 percent, last month � the lowest rate since 2007 � according to the monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

As NPR's Marilyn Geewax notes, 4.6 percent unemployment is what most economists consider "full employment," which she says is "when the number of people seeking jobs is roughly in balance with the number of openings. It doesn't mean the unemployment rate is zero because that's not realistic." (It's worth noting that employment varies by region and demographic, so the fruits of full employment aren't shared by all.)

# ? Dec 8, 2016 06:42

shrike82: Jun 11, 2005

Kinda funny to see progressives who had previously criticized employment stats for not factoring in the underemployed or those who had given up looking for jobs are now talking about how good the Obama economy is.

"America is already great!"

# ? Dec 8, 2016 06:46

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

guys, i'm trolling. i don't actually believe this poo poo

# ? Dec 8, 2016 06:48

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

but shrike1982, if poo poo like this

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-28/some-29-trillion-later-the-corporate-debt-boom-looks-exhausted

and this

http://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-currency-and-the-dollar-debt-time-bomb-1447608685

and this

http://www.forbes.com/sites/douglasbulloch/2016/06/17/chinas-playing-hot-potato-with-non-performing-loans/#28ddae5615e2

and this

https://www.ft.com/content/655dd004-bc78-11e6-8b45-b8b81dd5d080

quote:

US interest rate rises set to expose China�s frailties
The world�s most leveraged corporate sector adds to the country�s vulnerabilities

As Washington steels itself for the arrival of Donald Trump and a rise in interest rates, China could be forgiven for feeling itself besieged.

The country is home to the world�s most leveraged corporate sector, a notoriously volatile property sector and a swath of banks that depend on borrowing on the money markets to fund loans.

That makes the Chinese economy particularly sensitive to expectations of increasing interest rates, which together with the strong US dollar since Mr Trump�s election, have already sparked a rush to sell emerging market bonds and stocks.

�I think the Trump factor [will result in] more aggressive hiking of US interest rates, not just the one expected in December but also several times next year,� said Shen Jianguang, chief economist at Mizuho Securities in Hong Kong, speaking ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting which is widely expected to raise rates next week.

�A stronger US dollar will complicate the Chinese government�s efforts to stabilise the renminbi exchange rate and Beijing may have to tighten monetary policy,� he added.

The vast size of China�s corporate debt mountain � which stands at over 250 per cent of gross domestic product, up from 125 per cent in 2008 � means that even minor increases in short-term interest rates may squeeze corporate activity and precipitate defaults, thereby hampering economic growth.

Alex Wolf, emerging markets economist at Standard Life Investments, argues that default risks are rising because more and more corporations are relying on the short-term money market to raise the finance they need to repay existing debts.

�Rising rates, especially short-term, increases the stress on weaker companies and raises the risk of defaults, he said. The six-month Shanghai interbank offered rate, a benchmark short-term interest rate, has surged in recent weeks as monetary conditions have tightened.

Estimates by Fitch, the rating agency, reveal a level of pain in corporate China that is not hinted at by official statistics. Some 15 per cent to 21 per cent of loans in the Chinese banking system are already non-performing, Fitch estimates, compared with official numbers of less than 2 per cent.

Against this backdrop, an upsurge in Chinese capital outflows, to nearly $70bn in November, intensifies the challenges facing Beijing. With money pouring out of China, Beijing has little choice but to tighten domestic monetary conditions in spite of the difficulties for companies already unable to service their debt.

The Institute of International Finance, a global association of financial institutions, calculates that in the first 10 months of this year net capital outflows from China totalled $530bn, with October marking the 33rd straight month in which more money left the country than flowed in.

A strong dollar makes US assets more attractive relative to those held in a depreciating renminbi, prompting the Chinese to search for ways around recently-strengthened capital controls to send their money offshore.

The rise in short-term interest rates might also hit one of the weakest pillars in China�s financial architecture. Several midsized banks, such as the Bank of Jinzhou, find it hard to attract deposits and rely, therefore, on borrowing from the short-term money markets � but the cost of such borrowing is now rising.

Property companies � a mainstay of the wider economy � are also acutely vulnerable to the surge in short-term rates. Bond issuance by developers has plummeted since authorities tightened rules in October to rein in an overheated market, crimping their ability to invest in new projects.

In November, property developers issued only Rmb12bn ($1.7bn) in bonds, down from a monthly average of Rmb86bn from January to September, according to FT Confidential Research, a unit of the Financial Times.

Such economic stresses are complemented by the raft of political uncertainties that attend Mr Trump�s accession to the White House. He has threatened to slap tariffs on Chinese exports to the US and label Beijing a �currency manipulator� because of charges that the renminbi is undervalued.

�Is Donald Trump looking for a foreign enemy to redirect the attention of his supporters as he implements a plutocratic fiscal agenda with his plutocratic cabinet?� said Gary Greenberg, head of emerging markets at Hermes Investment Management, a fund.

A telephone call last week between Mr Trump and the leader of Taiwan, with which the US has no diplomatic relations, has also strained relations.

�The Taiwan call, along with undiplomatic tweets, gives [Mr Trump] a far away enemy who can be targeted as the source of US ills,� Mr Greenberg said. �China can react very angrily. Could this escalate? Possibly, but it is a little early to say.�

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2016. All rights reserved. You may share using our article tools. Please don't cut articles from FT.com and redistribute by email or post to the web.

doesn't scare you shitless well then lol i guess

# ? Dec 8, 2016 06:55

RandomPauI: Nov 24, 2006; Grimey Drawer

I don't post in here often. I also hold that the unemployment numbers aren't good because the jobs that are available are largely crap jobs. Crap jobs that are also on their way to being automated. Like pushing carts. That's been in the works since before the minimum wage hike talk became national news. That'll happen way sooner than automated cars becoming normal.

I also think that the crap jobs plus high personal debts plus high housing costs plus high financial speculation plus global instability are signs that things are going to get rough sooner rather than later. And that's even before climate change. And that my mom is screwed if Medicare and Social Security get privatized.

Edit: I'd put this together as a more coherent argument, but, well, kinda freaking out because she can't even hold down fluids lately. We couldn't afford the medical bills if she had to go with private insurance only.

RandomPauI fucked around with this message at 07:06 on Dec 8, 2016

# ? Dec 8, 2016 07:03

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

also you're all going to die early because trump just appointed this rear end in a top hat to head the EPA

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Pruitt

lol i can't wait until the senate rolls over for this motherfucker

# ? Dec 8, 2016 07:05

shrike82: Jun 11, 2005

Like the election was largely decided by how lovely neoliberal Dems have managed the economy and we still have people defending the Obama-Clinton economy. Like there's a serious amount of denial among posters here.

# ? Dec 8, 2016 07:18

bird food bathtub: Aug 9, 2003; College Slice

namaste faggots posted:

also you're all going to die early because trump just appointed this rear end in a top hat to head the EPA

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Pruitt

lol i can't wait until the senate rolls over for this motherfucker

This mother fucker has straight up sued the EPA to allow more mercury, arsenic and sulfur in the air.

Now he's supposed to lead it?

# ? Dec 8, 2016 07:20

ToxicSlurpee: Nov 5, 2003; -=SEND HELP=-; Pillbug

bird food bathtub posted:

This mother fucker has straight up sued the EPA to allow more mercury, arsenic and sulfur in the air.

Now he's supposed to lead it?

By burning it down.

# ? Dec 8, 2016 07:23

punk rebel ecks: Dec 11, 2010; A shitty post? This calls for a dance of deduction.

shrike82 posted:

Like the election was largely decided by how lovely neoliberal Dems have managed the economy and we still have people defending the Obama-Clinton economy. Like there's a serious amount of denial among posters here.

I can't decide who exactly you are suppose to be attacking here.

# ? Dec 8, 2016 07:29

MiddleOne: Feb 17, 2011

bird food bathtub posted:

This mother fucker has straight up sued the EPA to allow more mercury, arsenic and sulfur in the air.

Didn't realize Trump was an adherent to satanism.

# ? Dec 8, 2016 07:28

OhFunny: Jun 26, 2013; EXTREMELY PISSED AT THE DNC

Earlier today I read shrike82's post and decided not to reply to it.

A moment ago I saw a bunch of new posts and thought something significant had happened and people were discussing it.

Turns out other people read shrike82's post and decided to reply.

I'd prefer if we can share and comment on the developments of the various structural issues facing national economies as we see them unfold instead of raising to troll bait like fish to a lure.

I'm disappointed in you thread.

# ? Dec 8, 2016 07:34

ocrumsprug: Sep 23, 2010; by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

Perhaps if he wrote the prospectus for Monte dei Paschi he could actually save the European banking sectors.

Alas

# ? Dec 8, 2016 07:49

shrike82: Jun 11, 2005

MPS blowing up along with the EU is pretty good news for the US.

# ? Dec 8, 2016 07:50

Dawncloack: Nov 26, 2007; ECKS DEE!; Nap Ghost

shrike82 posted:

MPS blowing up along with the EU is pretty good news for the US.

Are you sure? What's your thought process?

# ? Dec 8, 2016 07:51

shrike82: Jun 11, 2005

We'll see a flood of money from Europe to the US partly due to flight to safety and partly due to the US commitment to deregulation. With stuff like Dodd-Frank on the chopping board, US financials are up 20% over the past month. I mean the EU is melting down - look at Fillon talking about firing half a million civil servants while Trump is focused on bringing jobs back to the US e.g. Sprint.

# ? Dec 8, 2016 08:02

Dawncloack: Nov 26, 2007; ECKS DEE!; Nap Ghost

I think you forget that derivatives will kill any of that, oh, and you are taking Trump at his word... Good luck with that xD

# ? Dec 8, 2016 08:08

Grouchio: Aug 31, 2014

bird food bathtub posted:

This mother fucker has straight up sued the EPA to allow more mercury, arsenic and sulfur in the air.

Now he's supposed to lead it?

Somebody get Ivanka on the phone.

# ? Dec 8, 2016 08:22

VitalSigns: Sep 3, 2011

shrike82 posted:

Like the election was largely decided by how lovely neoliberal Dems have managed the economy and we still have people defending the Obama-Clinton economy. Like there's a serious amount of denial among posters here.

Mmhmm

shrike82 posted:

Trump is already boosting the markets before he's taken office.

Where are all the people up thread talking about an imminent economic crisis.

Mmmhm yes.

# ? Dec 8, 2016 09:21

Raldikuk: Apr 7, 2006; I'm bad with money and I want that meatball!

shrike82 posted:

Trump saved 1000 Carrier jobs and created 50000 new ones through a deal with Sprint. What has Obama done?

Yes, sprint increasing its workforce by 270% is definitely realistic. In what world do you live in that you would not only believe such a thing but parrot it back as if it were a fact?

# ? Dec 8, 2016 11:25

shrike82: Jun 11, 2005

In a post-Trump world?

# ? Dec 8, 2016 12:01

Orange Devil: Oct 1, 2010; Wullie's reign cannae smother the flames o' equality!

Actually we're still in the pre-Trump world. Let's hope someone digs up these posts 5, or god forbid, 9 years from now so we can see which poster can claim their place alongside the alltime greats such as the Grover Iraq Invasion List.

# ? Dec 8, 2016 12:52

MiddleOne: Feb 17, 2011

Orange Devil posted:

the Grover Iraq Invasion List.

The what now? :raise:

# ? Dec 8, 2016 14:09

sitchensis: Mar 4, 2009

shrike82 posted:

Like the election was largely decided by how lovely neoliberal Dems have managed the economy and we still have people defending the Obama-Clinton economy. Like there's a serious amount of denial among posters here.

shrike82 posted:

We'll see a flood of money from Europe to the US partly due to flight to safety and partly due to the US commitment to deregulation. With stuff like Dodd-Frank on the chopping board, US financials are up 20% over the past month. I mean the EU is melting down - look at Fillon talking about firing half a million civil servants while Trump is focused on bringing jobs back to the US e.g. Sprint.

What exactly are you arguing here? Do you even know what neoliberalism is? :psyduck:

Yes, as a leftist, Clinton-Obama sucked. The Republicans and the Democrats agree on virtually everything in terms of economic philosophy. The only debate is on how hard and brutal the reforms will be. Neither party will substantially improve economic conditions for the average American -- at least, not to the extent the average American believes they will.

sitchensis fucked around with this message at 14:30 on Dec 8, 2016

# ? Dec 8, 2016 14:27

DeathSandwich: Apr 24, 2008; I fucking hate puzzles.

shrike82 posted:

Trump saved 1000 Carrier jobs and created 50000 new ones through a deal with Sprint. What has Obama done?

See what others have said re: the auto bailout.

In addition, I wouldn't brag about the Carrier thing, seeing as how they are still laying off like 600 people. It sets a bad precedent if I'm a medium-big business owner. Say hypothetically that I as a CEO want to lay off 1500 people to outsource their jobs to wherever: All I have to do now is publicly announce that I'm outsourcing 3000 jobs instead and wait for the Trump administration to bring me into the negotiation table where I can negotiate for a multi-billion dollar tax break in bad faith. I still get to lay off the 1500 people that I wanted to, and now the government is effectively paying me to do it!

Edit: Also you do realize that W. Bush was also a giant Neoliberal as well? Basically every president since at least Reagan has been.

# ? Dec 8, 2016 15:13

MiddleOne: Feb 17, 2011

People who have latched unto the concept in the last year don't seem to actually be aware that neoliberalism has been the dominant political ideology since the aftermath of the second Saudi Oil on both right and left. Reagan kicked it off in the US and for Europe Thatcher was our emissary. Anglo-saxon nations such as the US and UK changed much quicker than social democratic Scandinavia or Ordoliberal Germany (not really kicking it off until the 90's) but everyone was along for the ride after that point.

# ? Dec 8, 2016 15:26

shrike82: Jun 11, 2005

whataboutisms about the bad team does it too doesn't really come off well when the "good" team is supposed to be for workers etc.

# ? Dec 8, 2016 15:59

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

MiddleOne posted:

The what now?

One of the stupidest posts ever made in this forum by one of its stupidest members. I don't have it on hand but it was basically "they will greet us as liberators" only even more absurd.

Also only 10 people would die or something else hilariously dumb.

# ? Dec 8, 2016 16:14

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

axeil posted:

One of the stupidest posts ever made in this forum by one of its stupidest members. I don't have it on hand but it was basically "they will greet us as liberators" only even more absurd.

Also only 10 people would die or something else hilariously dumb.

Vilerat was one of these people.

# ? Dec 8, 2016 16:31

RandomPauI: Nov 24, 2006; Grimey Drawer

namaste faggots posted:

Vilerat was one of these people.

I'm pretty sure Vilerat didn't die during the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

# ? Dec 8, 2016 16:35

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

Well that was some unfortunate quoting

# ? Dec 8, 2016 16:37

Fried Watermelon: Dec 29, 2008

Vilerat died when he installed EVE

# ? Dec 8, 2016 17:18

SHAQ4PREZ: Dec 21, 2004; How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Economy Car

Grover posted:

How long will it take to capture Baghdad? 2 days
Will Saddam be killed? Yes
Total Iraqi civillian casualties: 500 dead
Total military casualties Iraq: 3000 dead
Total military casualties U.S.: 15 dead
Will the Iraqi army regulars hold the lines? No
Will the Republican Guard fight to the end? No
Will chem/bio weapons be used on invading troops?: Yes
Will Saddam launch attacks on the Kurds? Yes
Will Saddam launch attacks on Israel? No
-If yes; will Isreal retaliate harshly? Yes
Will Saddam sacrifice Baghdad (gas/nuke it)? No
Will the Kurds make a grab for independence? Yes
Will Iran do anything silly like try for land? Yes
Will Saddam burn the oil fields? Yes
How long will the US be occupying Iraq? ~15 years
Will the Iraq war catalyze increased terrorism in America?No
In the long run, will this war be good or bad for the world? Good

We have to look at what those civilian casualties are- just because they're civilian doesn't make them innocent! Lets take a look at a few possibilities:

1) A civilian walking down the street to market gets killed by a cruise missile fired at the market.

2) A civilian asleep in their house is killed when their house is targetting by a smart bomb and blown up.

OK, these two are regrettable innocents being killed- but since the US doesn't make a habit of targetting markets or houses, they're very small in number!

3) A civilian working at a chemical weapon factory gets killed when the chemical weapon plant is bombed.

4) A civilian security guard at a weapons depot is killed when the weapons explode.

5) A civilian contractor repairing a tank is killed by a MOAB dropped on the unit.

6) A civilian engineer is killed when the military command center he works at is destroyed.

7) A civilian delivering snackiecakes to the baghdad bunker vending machines eats a 5,000lb bunker buster.

etc, etc. The list goes on. My point is that there are a lot of civilians directly supporting the military that aren't exactly "innocent" and would be mire rightly counted among the military casualties than civilian. I'm a civilian and work for the US military, but I acknowledge I'm also a valid military target because of what I do. And I think the vast majority of civilian casualties in this campaign will not be innocent.

# ? Dec 9, 2016 02:06

OhFunny: Jun 26, 2013; EXTREMELY PISSED AT THE DNC

And there was also groverhaus.

When Grover's do-it-yourself home renovation was so bad it got it's own SAclopedia entry and smilie :grovertoot:

but back on topic:

Upward mobility has fallen greatly and income inequality has surged.

Only half the children born in the 1980s grew up to earn more than their parents did, after adjusting for inflation. That's a drop from 92 percent of children born in 1940.
It finds barely 2 in 5 men born in the mid-80s grew up to earn as much, at age 30, as their father's did at the same age. It shows average rates of mobility falling particularly fast in Rust Belt states, most notably Michigan and Indiana. And it finds a much steeper drop in absolute mobility for the middle class than for the poor.
The bottom 50 percent of U.S. income earners only gained 1 percent in earnings from 1962 to 2014, after adjusting for inflation.
From 1980 to 2014 nearly 70 percent of income gains went to the top 10 percent.

I don't see the Trump Administration reversing this. The planned tax cuts would likely widen it even more.

Interesting move from the European Central Bank.

It will extend it's bond-buying program to December 2017, but drop the amount from �80 to �60 billion starting April 2017. Seems to be trying to walk the tightrope between the Germans fearing inflation and Southern Europeans fearing deflation.

# ? Dec 9, 2016 03:00

Subjunctive: Sep 12, 2006; ✨sparkle and shine✨

OhFunny posted:

It finds barely 2 in 5 men born in the mid-80s grew up to earn as much, at age 30, as their father's did at the same age.

What were the numbers like for women? I didn't see anything about a gender split in the article, but I'm phone-reading.

# ? Dec 9, 2016 03:08

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# ? May 14, 2024 13:18

OhFunny: Jun 26, 2013; EXTREMELY PISSED AT THE DNC

Subjunctive posted:

What were the numbers like for women? I didn't see anything about a gender split in the article, but I'm phone-reading.

Page 15. End of Section IV:

quote:

When comparing children�s family incomes to their parents� family incomes as in our baseline analysis, we find similar declines in absolute mobility for sons and daughters (Figure S10). However, the patterns differ by gender when we focus on individual earnings. As noted above, sons� chances of earning more than their fathers fell steeply, from 95% in 1940 to 41% in 1984, underscoring the sharp decline in the economic prospects of American men. In contrast, the fraction of daughters earning more than their fathers fell from 43% for the 1940 birth cohort to 22% in 1960, and then rose slightly to 26% in 1984. The pattern for women�s individual earnings differs because of the rise in female labor force participation rates and earnings over the period we study (Figure S11). In sum, the subgroup analysis shows that declines in absolute mobility have been a systematic, widespread phenomenon throughout the United States since 1940.

# ? Dec 9, 2016 04:20

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