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Friendly Humour posted:http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-38274267 They know exactly what they're doing, distracting people by stealing products from companies and forcing them to slash their prices. They started doing the same pony and dog show around Christmas a couple of years ago, when they forced a huge chain store to slash their prices (look up the Dakazo). It doesn't really matter to them if the stores or companies go belly up. I live around downtown Caracas and government operatives have been forcing shoe stores to slash their prices dramatically around here, so there's always huge lines for people wanting to get their hands on discounted shoes. There was a video around a week back of a government official yelling to a store owner he didn't care about his receipts or profit margins, because he 'knew' he was just lying to him. He just kept yelling over and over "Lower the prices right now, lower the prices them, I don't care". Of course, they're always backed by the national guard, so people have no choice but to comply.
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Dec 10, 2016 16:40
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in any small export-dependent economy, the money supply is not set so much by the domestic interest rate inasmuch as the inflow of hard currency (which, effectively, is equal to the outflow of hard exports). And that is reflected by the fact that the Venezuelan central bank pegs the bolivar to the dollar - it affects the money supply by adjusting the multiple exchange rates, not the interest rate. It has adjusted this instrument (the peg) to achieve policy goals (the target) multiple times, as you would expect. This is true of all fixed-rate systems like Hong Kong or de facto target rate systems like Switzerland. The rate is not fixed as a matter of natural law. The rate is fixed as monetary policy. It is the policy that controls the money supply: the bank creates or destroys domestic money in relation to foreign money. the rationale (such as it is) of the skewed exchange rate in Venezuela is tied to the existence of its multiple rates - in lieu of a functioning welfare state, the government instead seeks to accomplish redistribution via means which are more susceptible to central control (and that, incidentally, keep the army on-side). That is, it rations the supply of hard currency (or the things that hard currency buys) at different rates to different parts of society, which it alone can control since it alone administers the peaceful sale of oil for US dollars. This means that monetary policy does not solely carry the targets of industrial policy or domestic inflation - it also achieves certain redistributive and socio-political-stability goals, and meeting all of these goals at the same time with just one blunt hammer is, as you might guess, difficult. But as for the question "why isn't there a functioning bureaucratic state", one need only wind back to the 2002-2003 middle-class strikes... the reality being that a welfare state needs the bourgeois class to literally staff its machinery. Paperwork requires an efficient literacy. And for that, it needs at least its consent, if not its grudging support. And in the absence of that support:  ANYWAY if you've been following the financial pages recently, the Saudis have spearheaded a cut in oil production that unsurprisingly led to analysis like this: quote:In 2014, OPEC adopted a pump at will policy opting to let the market set the price of oil at the behest of US ally Saudi Arabia, causing global oil prices to tumble by more than 50%. The Arab state had initially resisted attempts to curtail its production from within the organisation, but was eventually brought into the fold in Vienna in spite of predictions that it would attempt to stymie the deal.... All hail oil production cuts! All hail oil production cuts that Venezuela is forced to make anyway because its rigs idle for lack of upkeep, never mind investment! All hail the Bolivarian Revolution!
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Dec 10, 2016 16:46
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Friendly Humour posted:On a tangential note, hyperinflation in Weimar republic was intentional government policy, not an accident. It was used to dick the French over war reparation payments (as well as government creditors), nothing to do with economic hardship or the great depression. And you know how it was solved? The government printed new money. And then inflation stopped, because Germany was exporting again. They defaulted on their foreign debts through inflation, and then everything was fine. Well, relatively speaking Friendly Humour posted:"Restricting the money supply" is just a monetarist myth, it doesn't ever work in practice. The causes of runaway inflation are many, and it doesn't have a solution that targets some specific thing like the money supply or whatever. May I ask what authors you read on the topic of Weimar Germany? what do they write about the Rentemark? as far as I know it is a classic example of instituting new restrictions on the expansion of the currency stock, since the act that created it disallowed discounting of treasury bills.
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Dec 10, 2016 16:58
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Labradoodle posted:They know exactly what they're doing, distracting people by stealing products from companies and forcing them to slash their prices. They started doing the same pony and dog show around Christmas a couple of years ago, when they forced a huge chain store to slash their prices (look up the Dakazo). It doesn't really matter to them if the stores or companies go belly up. And they do it because people love this poo poo, during the Dakazo people were so happy they were able to buy poo poo for super cheap without caring they were effectively bankrupting these businesses.
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Dec 10, 2016 19:06
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Friendly Humour posted:http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-38274267 The Venezuelan government is not a group of people who all show up to the office in the morning with files and reports and ask themselves, "We've got X problem: what is an efficient and logical way to fix this problem in a way that will benefit people?". The Maduro regime is a kleptocracy; it is heavily connected to drug trafficking operations, with members of Maduro's own household involved. The Venezuelan cabinet does not include a single economist. Not one person in a leadership position in the Venezuelan government is a trained economist. The Maduro regime is not interested in running a country. It is interested in stealing as much as possible, and its plans and actions are motivated by only two considerations: How much can I steal, and how can I make sure I can get away with this? Once you realize this, everything that the Venezuelan government does starts to make sense. On the issue of the stolen toys: it's important to point out that the toys will not be given away by the government. They will be sold. The head of the agency in charge of the "decommissioning" operation is a man named William Contreras, and yesterday he said: quote:We are calculating the value of the toys so that we can incorporate them into the CLAP distribution network which currently delivers 18 food products around the country. To summarize: the government just took nearly 4 million toys by force from a company and is going to sell them.
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Dec 10, 2016 20:29
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Chuck Boone posted:The thing that you have to understand before trying to make sense of Venezuelan politics is that the PSUV and the Maduro regime are not a government in the way that we are used to thinking about governments. I am going to steal this quote in the future whenever someone asks me my general thoughts about the Venezuelan government.
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Dec 11, 2016 00:28
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Phoneposting, i'll look up sources later. But if you're interested in the whole austerity monetarism angle and it's history, look up Mark Blyth's Austerity. Brilliant book, can't recommend it enough. He's got some really funny lectures on youtube too
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Dec 11, 2016 13:15
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People apparently have 72 hours to convert all of their 100 Bs bills into the new bills, since it's apparently the only bill that is going out of circulation.
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Dec 11, 2016 22:37
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We keep getting curve balls thrown at us This 15th and 16th banks are gonna collapse with all the people
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Dec 12, 2016 00:59
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fnox posted:People apparently have 72 hours to convert all of their 100 Bs bills into the new bills, since it's apparently the only bill that is going out of circulation. That, uh, sounds iike an unreasonably short period of time. Why would you do this  Is there some horrible yet plausible rationale that I just can't come up with? Are 100bs bills popular with MUD voters who can't get hold of black market USD?
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Dec 12, 2016 01:04
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fnox posted:People apparently have 72 hours to convert all of their 100 Bs bills into the new bills, since it's apparently the only bill that is going out of circulation. What are those bills really worth now though? I mean yeah the government says they're worth $10 each but that's clearly got nothing to do with reality.
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Dec 12, 2016 01:09
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fishmech posted:What are those bills really worth now though? I mean yeah the government says they're worth $10 each but that's clearly got nothing to do with reality. $1 is about Bs4500 do the math but yeah they are worthless
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Dec 12, 2016 01:10
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El Hefe posted:$1 is about Bs4500 do the math This did cross my mind. But aren't there people still trying to scrape by on bolivar-denominated salaries? I guess those folks might not have very many bills stashed.
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Dec 12, 2016 01:18
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GreyjoyBastard posted:That, uh, sounds iike an unreasonably short period of time. It's not even going to be a full three days, since banks don't open tomorrow. That means we have a 48-hour window to deposit all Bs100 bills into our accounts. The kicker is that the new Bs100 coins and larger bills don't enter circulation until the 15th. These next couple of weeks are going to be a clusterfuck, even by Venezuelan standards. At this point, Bs100 notes make up for 77% of all bills in circulation. There are over six billion Bs100 bills in the economy and it's the bill most people use for any type of transaction due to inflation. It's completely impossible to take 6 billion bills out of circulation in two days. Moreover, points of sale networks were already buckling under the strain, now we're likely to see another collapse, same as what happened two weeks ago. Labradoodle fucked around with this message at 02:21 on Dec 12, 2016 |
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Dec 12, 2016 01:18
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GreyjoyBastard posted:This did cross my mind. But aren't there people still trying to scrape by on bolivar-denominated salaries? I guess those folks might not have very many bills stashed. Yeah if you earn minimum wage you spend that poo poo on pay day I try to use as little cash as possible tbh, you can pay with debit cards pretty much everywhere (technically anyway).
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Dec 12, 2016 01:32
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GreyjoyBastard posted:That, uh, sounds iike an unreasonably short period of time. The rationale is pretty horrible, but not plausible. He says this will strike a blow against mafias hoarding cash. Because obviously, if I'm a member of an organized crime syndicate, I'm looking to amass loving Monopoly money.
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Dec 12, 2016 07:13
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"Boy, I'm sure glad Capriles didn't win, that would have been awful" - D&D poster, 2013
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Dec 12, 2016 07:18
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beer_war posted:"Boy, I'm sure glad Capriles didn't win, that would have been awful" You sure took D&D poster down a notch.
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Dec 12, 2016 07:55
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D&D poster is the worst 
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Dec 12, 2016 08:12
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Bip Roberts posted:You sure took D&D poster down a notch. Keep on learning nothing from this.
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Dec 12, 2016 12:26
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beer_war posted:"Boy, I'm sure glad Capriles didn't win, that would have been awful" The only opposition candidate I would understand not voting for would be Manuel Rosales.
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Dec 12, 2016 12:26
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fnox posted:The only opposition candidate I would understand not voting for would be Manuel Rosales. Rosales was the only candidate Chavez ever feared, he toyed with Capriles.
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Dec 12, 2016 15:29
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El Hefe posted:Rosales was the only candidate Chavez ever feared, he toyed with Capriles. I highly doubt that, he won against Rosales by 20 points consistent with polling, he beat Capriles by 10 in an election where Capriles didn't stand a chance. Rosales is also a bumbling idiot with the charisma of a rock who's platform relied on the premise of giving the poor free money using 20% of the oil revenue, an idea which not even the poorest of the poor bought, he was also chosen without primaries. Chavez never faced any real opposition (He did of course make sure of that), except for that one referendum he lost.
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Dec 12, 2016 17:03
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There's nothing to doubt, it's proven by the simple fact Rosales was jailed while Capriles is allowed to roam free.
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Dec 12, 2016 17:09
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There wouldn't be a point to jailing Capriles. Chavez beat him, then Maduro gambled that he wouldn't fight back when they stole the elections from him, and he was right. I'm sure he's completely honest in his devotion to the country, but he's completely out of his depth as the opposition to a dictatorship. He's never the one calling for protests or any sort of confrontation, as long as you give Capriles an option that sounds more 'democratic' he's going to take it, no matter how long the shot. In his own way, he's done a lot to legitimize the government – he's more useful to them on the streets than behind bars. Stil, I'm sure if he ever wakes up and gets too troublesome, they'll be happy to give him a cell in Ramo Verde.
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Dec 12, 2016 17:55
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Bip Roberts posted:You sure took D&D poster down a notch. D and d socialists loving loved Venezuela and constantly cited it as an example of how great socialism is. Turns out there's no such thing as a socialist government that doesn't implode in short order (of course the next time will be different  )
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Dec 12, 2016 18:39
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TROIKA CURES GREEK posted:D and d socialists loving loved Venezuela and constantly cited it as an example of how great socialism is. Turns out there's no such thing as a socialist government that doesn't implode in short order (of course the next time will be different Borneo Jimmy Borneo Jimmy
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Dec 12, 2016 19:30
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El Hefe posted:There's nothing to doubt, it's proven by the simple fact Rosales was jailed while Capriles is allowed to roam free. Chavez didn't jail him, Maduro did. Chavez exiled Rosales to Peru, Rosales then came back, I think this year, and was promptly arrested after stepping out of the plane. Leopoldo Lopez is the only guy I would say is in jail due to being too dangerous for the regime to keep on the streets. beer_war posted:The rationale is pretty horrible, but not plausible. There's a very good theory about the government doing this to artificially shrink the money supply in the most draconian manner possible. It's nothing out of the ordinary for a dictatorship.
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Dec 13, 2016 02:31
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Minister of the Interior Ernesto Reverol held the most  press conference I've heard in a long time.Reverol said that the reason why Maduro ordered the Bs. 100 bills out of circulation is that the U.S. Treasury Department has hired NGOs to take money out of Venezuela through organized crime units which fly the Bs. 100 bills out of the country and keep them in warehouses in Germany, Poland, Spain, Switzerland, and the Czech Republic in order to bring them back into the country once Maduro has been overthrown. During the press conference, Reverol presented "evidence" of the Bs. 100 bills being warehoused overseas. The "evidence" was pictures of big stacks of Bs. 100 bills with blurry pictures of papers Reverol claims were newspapers from European countries, meaning that the bills were in fact in European countries. I really, really wish I could say that this is an exaggeration, but it's not. Here's Reverol's press conference along with my translation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bt7knGSe4II quote:Reverol: To the entire country: good morning. We are here today at the headquarters of the National Anti-Drug Agency on the orders of our President of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro Moros, who has instructed us to meet today with the presidents of the different banks that operate in Venezuela as well as with all other officials and the new head of the superintendency for banks of the National Financial Intelligence Unit in order to talk about everything related to the economic emergency decree and the measures taken yesterday on the Bs. 100 bill. Chuck Boone fucked around with this message at 03:37 on Dec 13, 2016 |
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Dec 13, 2016 02:52
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That...doesn't make any sense at all. Other countries are paying a premium for bolivares and taking them out of the money supply, so the value of bolivares is plummeting like a rock?
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Dec 13, 2016 02:55
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Sinteres posted:That...doesn't make any sense at all. Other countries are paying a premium for bolivares and taking them out of the money supply, so the value of bolivares is plummeting like a rock? It doesn't matter if it doesn't make sense, their followers are still going to believe it.
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Dec 13, 2016 02:56
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Also, don't forget that Reverol has been indicted in the U.S. for his alleged role in a massive drug trafficking operation that smuggles drugs out of Venezuela into the United States. Knowing that, his press conference makes a little more sense... EDIT: Taking money out of the country in massive quantities would reduce liquidity and help a bit with the inflation, no? If anyone knows the phone number of one of these NGOs, maybe we should all pitch in and help get the inflation rate under control? Chuck Boone fucked around with this message at 03:07 on Dec 13, 2016 |
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Dec 13, 2016 03:03
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Chuck Boone posted:Minister of the Interior Ernesto Reverol held the most The idea of a conspiracy to take what is basically pennies out of the country, is just great.
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Dec 13, 2016 03:35
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fishmech posted:The idea of a conspiracy to take what is basically pennies out of the country, is just great. Reminder that Maduro had a minister of economy who didn't believe in the concept of inflation. This entire country is a giant The Onion article.
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Dec 13, 2016 03:45
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TROIKA CURES GREEK posted:D and d socialists loving loved Venezuela and constantly cited it as an example of how great socialism is. Turns out there's no such thing as a socialist government that doesn't implode in short order (of course the next time will be different At some point we really should go back and compile a list of shame. I remember several D&D left wingers going on and on about how Venezuela is still better than the USA because no one is poor and human rights and in the end the socialist system is gonna be more stable. Some are still active on this very forum TODAY 
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Dec 13, 2016 08:42
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Didn't Venezuela used to suck less because they were making so much oil money that the PSUV couldn't steal all of it? The wheels didn't come off until the oil price crashed.
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Dec 13, 2016 09:56
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Even then a lot of poo poo the Chavista regime was doing was indefensible.
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Dec 13, 2016 10:05
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The Lone Badger posted:Didn't Venezuela used to suck less because they were making so much oil money that the PSUV couldn't steal all of it? The wheels didn't come off until the oil price crashed. https://youtu.be/rStL7niR7gs This is pretty accurate on how patronage networks function in dictatorships. The reason for such a quick turnaround for Venezuela is that the corruption didn't scale back state theft when oil crashed.
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Dec 13, 2016 10:14
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Kavak posted:Even then a lot of poo poo the Chavista regime was doing was indefensible. Like what?
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Dec 13, 2016 12:44
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anonumos posted:Like what? Like:
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Dec 13, 2016 13:25
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