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Sax Solo posted:Can you just explain what's wrong with it succinctly? I don't want to sift through your comment for the relevant parts that will help me sift through an SSC post; that is like a double nightmare. I can do that. Scott has a lot of beliefs drawn from the unfortunate fact that we called our current industry darling ML method "neural networks". He thinks that the apparently natural analogy to a human brain is a correct one, that reward functions are analogous dopamine and serotonin, that learning-by-example is analogous to ML training, and so on. This is one of those analogies that seems modestly accurate to a layperson but breaks down almost immediately. At one point he says that he finds accurate machine facial recognition deeply alarming, in what I think is the least necessary terror since the Basilisk. It's just uninformed layperson speculation on a complex and technical subject, so it's wrong some places, unoriginal and obvious in others, and in some places it's so off base you can't even call it "wrong".
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Dec 11, 2016 21:06
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Cingulate posted:So you just want to gloat over how Scott's wrong, without actually knowing neither what he says, nor what's actually true? People want to know the error being made without having to read two long posts. There are only so many minutes in the day. Your neural network is receiving 'that's incorrect' signals about how you interact with people, consider reassessing your beliefs. Here's my attempt at a summary from a quick skim: Alexander is worried that AIs trained to judge on certain principles will then 'wrongly' apply those principles in certain other cases, but this isn't a concern because the AI would have been trained on those cases just like the others and would only have learned those principles if they gave the correct result. I think the worry so stated can possibly be defended but maybe I have it wrong...?
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Dec 11, 2016 21:07
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Peel posted:People want to know the error being made without having to read two long posts. There are only so many minutes in the day. Your neural network is receiving 'that's incorrect' signals about how you interact with people, consider reassessing your beliefs. That's one of the not-even-wrong statements, in my opinion. There's no way to phrase that formally enough that it can even be critiqued, it relies on informal understandings of things like "moral", and "principles". Is he imagining a "moral rightness" classifier? A generative model of "right actions"? What sort of inputs to this system is he imagining? "the entire state of the world, plus a proposed action"? How could you even specify those things?These might seem like petty quibbles or implementation details, but once you try to formalize these in a way that you can actually do work with them, you find that you can never quite encapsulate them the way you hoped.
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Dec 11, 2016 21:15
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It's definitely unworkable, my 'defence,' such as it is, is more that just because training a 'moral classifier' on a crude set of examples and 'good/bad' ratings is obviously ridiculous doesn't mean that someone high on the future won't try to do it.
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Dec 11, 2016 21:29
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https://twitter.com/shieldfoss/status/806904023253221377 https://twitter.com/schakalsynthetc/status/806910182445957120
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Dec 11, 2016 21:31
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SolTerrasa posted:At one point he says that he finds accurate machine facial recognition deeply alarming, in what I think is the least necessary terror since the Basilisk. Asymmetrikon posted:I'm not sure if you're using the general 'you' here or not, but plenty of people are reassessing their beliefs in ways both good and bad - the movement towards the appeasement of white nationalists (bad), and the movement towards rejuvenating antifa groups (good).
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Dec 11, 2016 21:42
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heh "nobody on the parts of the internet that I go to ever says 'fag', except for when they do, but then it's ironically, and homophobia is a thing of the past" is an opinion I've previously seen on Tumblr to prove that asexuals are the most oppressed population in America. Vaguely amusing to see the same goddamn stupid bubble logic from opposing sides, if also kind of infuriating to see people blithely acting as though the homophobic violence that really does happen irl isn't a thing
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Dec 11, 2016 21:46
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Peel posted:It's definitely unworkable, my 'defence,' such as it is, is more that just because training a 'moral classifier' on a crude set of examples and 'good/bad' ratings is obviously ridiculous doesn't mean that someone high on the future won't try to do it. Reminds me of this article linked to in the Fake News thread in D&D (although not, unfortunately, from a fake news site): http://www.usnews.com/news/articles...tack?src=usn_fb So yeah, given what idiots high on the future are doing already, it's probably only a matter of time before someone tries to create a "moral classifier" like that.
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Dec 11, 2016 22:17
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Btw SolTerrasa, my interpretation is, you're actually far too nice to Scott. I don't think he's making an analogy between the brain's Dopamine system and a DNN's reward function. I think he doesn't know what a (ML) reward function is. He mentions reinforcement learning, but from what I can tell, he thinks it's something you can add after you've already learned (categories). (And no, this is most certainly not about unsupervised pre-training.) That's what I mean: I think he doesn't even know what a loss function is. His ideas have minus infinity connection to actual AI research.
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Dec 11, 2016 22:21
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I would like to see the buddy cop movie where Cingulate and The Vosgian Beast are forced together as reluctant partners to solve the case of Fascism. And they only have 24 hours. I mean, they won't. But it'd be entertaining. InediblePenguin posted:heh "nobody on the parts of the internet that I go to ever says 'fag', except for when they do, but then it's ironically, and homophobia is a thing of the past" is an opinion I've previously seen on Tumblr to prove that asexuals are the most oppressed population in America. Vaguely amusing to see the same goddamn stupid bubble logic from opposing sides, if also kind of infuriating to see people blithely acting as though the homophobic violence that really does happen irl isn't a thing These are not people arguing in good faith
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Dec 11, 2016 22:33
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cash crab posted:This is my favourite thing anyone has ever posted. Also, sidenote: this conversation was very illuminating because I had a woman email me the other day asking if any of our food was halal (yes) and responded that she would not be dining with us for that reason, and I was very confused. My buddy was working at a Panera. When this dude said he liked their bread she suggested a Jewish bakery for some decent bagels. He then went on some weird rant about how he made his diet as unkosher as possible to piss off the Jews. People have weird goddamn feelings about bread. Razorwired has a new favorite as of 22:37 on Dec 11, 2016 |
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Dec 11, 2016 22:35
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Oh yeah, Eric Raymond wrote his thing defending the alt-right after Eli Yudkowsky's dad asked for alternatives to Newegg because Newegg was "censoring" Breitbart by refusing ad placement there. People reacted with surprise and horror because his dad is a very devout Orthodox Jew, and Eric wrote a treatise on how the alt-right was fine and an antidote to "PC culture" and all that bullshit, but if the left kept running around calling people Nazis then maybe in reaction the Neo-Nazis would actually succeed in "taking it over."
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Dec 11, 2016 22:45
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Cingulate posted:Man I wish I knew. If I did, I'd be writing Explainers on VOX about it, or blogging or something. Ah yes, that explains why a rambling post about AI that says nothing of interest or note is good.
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Dec 11, 2016 22:56
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Improbable Lobster posted:Ah yes, that explains why a rambling post about AI that says nothing of interest or note is good. Ichabod Sexbeast posted:I would like to see the buddy cop movie where Cingulate and The Vosgian Beast are forced together as reluctant partners to solve the case of Fascism. And they only have 24 hours. Only not Vosgian Beast, he's too repetitive. One of the guys I put on ignore for being very angry.
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Dec 11, 2016 23:12
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If there's a bunch of posts in DE, either poptart_fairy or cingulate have dropped in to say hi.Fututor Magnus posted:https://twitter.com/shieldfoss/status/806904023253221377 That's still an extremely low bar. I Killed GBS has a new favorite as of 23:40 on Dec 11, 2016 |
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Dec 11, 2016 23:36
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eschaton posted:Oh yeah, Eric Raymond wrote his thing defending the alt-right after Eli Yudkowsky's dad asked for alternatives to Newegg because Newegg was "censoring" Breitbart by refusing ad placement there. He should be looking for alternatives to Newegg because it's fuckin trash in the first place.
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Dec 12, 2016 00:19
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eschaton posted:Oh yeah, Eric Raymond wrote his thing defending the alt-right after Eli Yudkowsky's dad asked for alternatives to Newegg because Newegg was "censoring" Breitbart by refusing ad placement there. I'd rather have a link for Bigger Yud making a fool of himself than ESR ESRing
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Dec 12, 2016 00:50
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The Vosgian Beast posted:I'd rather have a link for Bigger Yud making a fool of himself than ESR ESRing Alas, that didn't happen someplace I could link to. ESR turned his response there into that blog post though.
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Dec 12, 2016 01:16
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Cingulate posted:What? Too bad fucker we're doing this thing 
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Dec 12, 2016 01:18
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Cingulate posted:You're living in a bubble. In the real world, Donald Trump is your president-elect. Cingulate posted:You're living in a bubble. In the real world, your president-elect is Donald Trump. Cingulate posted:You're living in a bubble. In the real world, your president-elect is Donald Trump. Did this really need to be said three times?
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Dec 12, 2016 01:38
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=svVaEWQaoSo
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Dec 12, 2016 01:44
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LITERALLY A BIRD posted:Did this really need to be said three times? it's Cingulate being Cingulate. I've seen him drop into an entirely different sort of thread (non-political) doing this exact same highly characteristic posting schtick: pick an angle that isn't even necessarily at odds with the thread zeitgeist, BUT intentionally seek out the absolute most loving obnoxious  way of arguing for it, flood the thread with same so nobody can ignore, and luxuriate in all the resulting fireworks.
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Dec 12, 2016 01:50
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He had me dead to rights. My post, if you read between the lines, said "did you know that donald trump is not the president-elect" and he did not let that falsehood slide
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Dec 12, 2016 01:54
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e: Nevermind, shouldn't have even started this
Asymmetrikon has a new favorite as of 02:08 on Dec 12, 2016 |
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Dec 12, 2016 02:03
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The Vosgian Beast posted:He had me dead to rights. My post, if you read between the lines, said "did you know that donald trump is not the president-elect" and he did not let that falsehood slide wait, you mean Sanders didn't win in November?
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Dec 12, 2016 04:46
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Cingulate posted:You're living in a bubble. In the real world, Donald Trump is your president-elect. Support for democracy is falling. In practice, “democracy” has always been rule by the left. They fix the electorate as needed, by expanding it, “educating” it, applying political repression, or bringing in a new people to replace the old people, so as to ensure a vote for current leftism. Which gets ever lefter. And current leftism has been getting crazier and crazier, faster and faster. Which requires ever more drastic measures to massage the electorate to obtain an acceptable result. Lockean doctrine implied a democracy of property holders – since the only legitimate activities of the state were to defend the realm and uphold property rights, and allowing non property holders to vote would obviously undermine property rights. In Whig history, the restriction to property holders and the importance of securing property rights gets forgotten. In Whig history Lockeanism was triumphant in the Glorious revolution, which supposedly established the supremacy of parliament. Perhaps it did, but Lock and his patrons were exiled. If those in power were Lockeans they were forced to remain mighty quiet about it until the early 1800s in order to avoid the wrath of the divine right monarch. Divine right was still live when George proclaimed that God had appointed him regent. This resulted in Trump/Bush levels of derangement on the left, and the entire Victorian era and the resulting emancipation of women and destruction of marriage can in large part be understood as an effort to retroactively destroy George the Fourth. His filthy slut wife is still today written up as a long suffering saint, and hence all women are saints, and only wives are ever wronged, never husbands. We are still today suffering under a propaganda offensive created to delegitimize George the fourth. The left is still today half cracked on anything King George related. Anything your read in official history related to King George the fourth is half lies and half butthurt madness. Whigs got the decisive upper hand when King George’s reign ended – and two years after his death instituted lockean democracy limited to property holders. Which property restriction was progressively diluted resulting in the election of lefter and lefter governments, until in 1918 they gave large numbers of non property holders the vote, who promptly proceeded to vote against property rights. So the period where Lock’s doctrines were actually in effect was about fifty two years, from 1832 to 1884. Britain went from kingly and aristocratic rule to democracy of the propertyless with an intervening period of rule by the property owning classes of about fifty to ninety years, from 1832 to 1884, or from 1832 to 1918. This was classical liberalism, libertarianism, which is a reasonable and sane form of leftism. But it did not come to power by itself, could not come to power by itself. It came to power in coalition with two evil and crazy forms of leftism, hatred of colonialism and the doctrine that women are angels, which doctrine of women as angels was used as a bludgeon against King George and the Aristocracy, and continues to be used as a bludgeon against King George and the Aristocracy, even today. Pretty soon the evil and crazy left devoured the sane left. Since women are angels there is supposedly no need to coercively enforce chastity on them, and the marital contract only needs to be enforced on men, not women, Enforcing it on women is supposedly just misogyny. The result was what you would expect, a massive wave of female promiscuity and adultery, for example the whore Florence Nightingale and the slut Queen Caroline, and a vast horde of illegitimate children. A lot of libertarians believe that if we refrain from subsidizing fatherless children, we will not have fatherless children. Victorianism proved this false, with far too many women giving birth in dark alleys in the rain. If you don’t have a welfare state to support fatherless children, you have to do what the Victorians failed to do, forcefully coerce women to behave chastely, subjecting them to the authority of responsible male adults with authority to use corporal punishment. We wound up with a welfare state in large part because the Victorian failure to police female chastity with male authority and physical coercion resulted in an intolerable torrent of bastards. The United States is a more complicated story, because, until the war of Northern Aggression, things happened state by state. Whigs generally came to power in the American Revolution, but not always and everywhere, so came to power somewhat earlier in America than in Britain. In America, Lockeanism, democracy restricted to property owners, generally had a short life. To get acceptably leftist governments elected, had to enfranchise the masses. And then had to enfranchise even more of the masses. And then enfranchise women. And then had to bring in the third world to replace legacy Americans. Religions are synthetic tribes. So we are always ruled by a theocracy, defining religions broadly to include quasi religious doctrines like communism and proggism. But proggism, the religion descended from whiggery, itself descended from puritanism, has become every more evil, ever more insane, and is getting crazier faster and faster. This is inevitable in a state religion that lacks an archbishop and a grand inquisitor to prevent holiness spirals. If adherents of a belief system took power, the way for the next guy to take power is to adhere to that belief system only even more so and with knobs on top. So the day inexorably comes when proggism shall fall, and with it democracy. Lockeanism was a pretty good idea – but ultimately it was a mere tool to power, and rapidly got left behind in the holiness spiral. The good ideas got used up, and the ideas remaining are demolition of Chesterton’s fence. When your ideology takes power, it becomes a state religion, and you are going to need an archbishop and a grand inquisitor to prevent your ideology from being devoured by those holier than you are. You have to have someone whose job it is to stop holiness spirals, to officially discredit those who preach more than the required level of holiness, to ensure that those possessing state power are sufficiently holy but not holier than the King, the Archbishop, and the Grand Inquisitor.
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Dec 12, 2016 05:03
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LITERALLY A BIRD posted:Did this really need to be said three times? Cingulate is actually one of the fairey-folk and so must invoke the power of the Rule of Three in order to channel the magic of pedantry.
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Dec 12, 2016 05:13
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Cingulate posted:Man I wish I knew. If I did, I'd be writing Explainers on VOX about it, or blogging or something. Asymmetrikon posted:I'm not sure if you're using the general 'you' here or not, but plenty of people are reassessing their beliefs in ways both good and bad - the movement towards the appeasement of white nationalists (bad), and the movement towards rejuvenating antifa groups (good). Yeah so far from what I can tell "reassessing beliefs" has been stuff like "gosh guys maybe throwing transpeople under the bus as a concession is The Right Thing to Do" and "what does it matter if [x] is ethically correct if we lost???" so no I think I'd rather stick with my current belief that eventually people will stop being complete dicks to each other for incredibly stupid reasons and just being the change you want to see in the world and encouraging that in others is enough to push society in that direction.
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Dec 12, 2016 09:12
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I tried to watch Million Dollar Extreme and it was just confusing and bad. Where are the jokes?
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Dec 12, 2016 10:43
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Cingulate posted:But lesson 1 is certainly: what we've been doing isn't working. What we believe is wrong. All of the gloating and the dismissiveness and smugness are bad. You use the word "we," but the above doesn't make me think you actually have much in common with what many of the posters in this thread believe. You say: quote:what we've been doing isn't working. which is a highly debatable point, and then follow it with: quote:What we believe is wrong. which at its most charitable is an insulting non-sequitur. The conclusion does not follow from the premise, and you certainly haven't demonstrated that in any way. And you double down on this to an insane degree in your following paragraph. Either you're just trying to get a rise out of the others in this thread, or you actually think like this and are essentially outing yourself as alt-right in some sort of bizarre recruiting effort.
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Dec 12, 2016 11:35
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GIANT OUIJA BOARD posted:Did someone say SSC? LIGHT THE CINGULATE BEACONS! GIANT OUIJA BOARD has a new favorite as of 12:23 on Dec 12, 2016 |
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Dec 12, 2016 12:12
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Lottery of Babylon posted:Too much Jim You'd get an interesting book if you got his exes together. eschaton posted:...or you actually think like this and are essentially outing yourself as alt-right in some sort of bizarre recruiting effort. It's this. Relevant Tangent has a new favorite as of 13:02 on Dec 12, 2016 |
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Dec 12, 2016 12:58
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Not neoreaction, but their pals the rationalists are being wacky again. They’ve worked out how to get the horror of Roko’s Basilisk directly from Newcomb. I’m not sure I precisely understand the problem as stated (and can’t be bothered to do so) - mostly it's Iain M. Banks' Simulation Problem, where a sufficiently good simulation constitutes a sentient being - but like any deep LW theological argument the details are both obscure and inane. If you think “amateur philosophers scaring the poo poo out of themselves with their own campfire stories,” you’ll understand what’s going on here. That subreddit, it’s like LessWrong 2010 coping with the world of 2016. With less Harry Potter. “He does give a list of arguments against technical issues but they’re so brief and undefended that it’s almost comical. He’s only a programmer, after all.” The original post was deleted by a mod. The reason? "The post is removed, not because it's harmful, but because it's unintentional sneer bait and people are going to make fun of you." CFAR - the "just plain rationality training" offshoot of MIRI, founded by Julia Galef - has also finally admitted the organisation is literally about AI risk in the MIRI sense. This was of course obvious to non-kool-aid drinkers previously, even as some of their fans are upset they’ve finally admitted it. (Oh god the comments.)
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Dec 12, 2016 13:28
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PYF DE Thinker: Sam Hyde. Now discussing AI risk. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F9FCDfcGQqg Hyde's particular take on AI risk is slightly different from Yud's. What if, Sam ponders from his Toyota, the Chinese get AI first? Then it'll be inhuman and monstrous ("cruel and machine-like"), like the Chinese. It'll cover the whole world in solar panels to create the world's most efficient parking lot. The solution? "You probably want some white guys on the team [creating real AI] if you want it to create anything remotely beneficial." The argument isn't actually any less dumb than Yud's. He's just adding a racist angle on top, and it fits perfectly. DE Perfect Storm. Hate Fibration posted:I tried to watch Million Dollar Extreme and it was just confusing and bad. The troublesome thing is how he has a certain hippness to him. He doesn't give a gently caress. He's counterculture. He's anti-establishment in a way that kind of makes Louis Ck look like the establishment. It's really scary. eschaton posted:You use the word "we," but the above doesn't make me think you actually have much in common with what many of the posters in this thread believe If this is too vague, substitute "people who're not literally Trump supporters" and it'll basically do. ate all the Oreos posted:Yeah so far from what I can tell "reassessing beliefs" has been stuff like "gosh guys maybe throwing transpeople under the bus as a concession is The Right Thing to Do" and "what does it matter if [x] is ethically correct if we lost???" so no I think I'd rather stick with my current belief that eventually people will stop being complete dicks to each other for incredibly stupid reasons and just being the change you want to see in the world and encouraging that in others is enough to push society in that direction. A part of this is I believe the left is caught up in a specific framing of the culture wars where the probability of success is scarily low, and the stakes are unfairly bad: if the right wins, we get reaction, if the left wins, the gain are comparatively minor. An aspect of this framing is that it's set up a bit like you just did: on one side, you have good people, and on the other side, you have people who "throw transpeople under the bus". Literally Donald Trump offered literally A Republican With Terrible Opinions Caitlyn Jenner to pee in his women's toilet. What side is he on? Well, we all agree he's not on the Good People side. But how we determine what makes him one of the bad ones is currently dangerously miscalibrated. And a part of this is this demonization of the Other. Deplorables. Irredeemable. Human trash. Not only doesn't it make sense to debate with them; understanding where they're coming from, trying to emphasize with them, is inherently bad - treasonous, even. If you try that, you're in danger of contamination by their bad blood. This is a dangerous mindset, and this thread is a prime example. eschaton posted:you actually think like this and are essentially outing yourself as alt-right in some sort of bizarre recruiting effort. Cingulate has a new favorite as of 13:34 on Dec 12, 2016 |
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Dec 12, 2016 13:31
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divabot posted:CFAR - the "just plain rationality training" offshoot of MIRI, founded by Julia Galef - has also finally admitted the organisation is literally about AI risk in the MIRI sense. This was of course obvious to non-kool-aid drinkers previously, even as some of their fans are upset they’ve finally admitted it. (Oh god the comments.)
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Dec 12, 2016 13:44
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Cingulate posted:That's some scary-rear end cult language. Millennialism par excellence. Those posts are by Anna Salamon, who originated "eight lives saved per dollar donated" at SIAI as it was. (Original phrasing: "You can divide it up, per half day of time, something like 800 lives. Per $100 of funding, also something like 800 lives.") You want cult jargon, try this post. As far as I can work out it's a heavily jargonised attempted formalisation of "work out what you're actually disagreeing about".
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Dec 12, 2016 13:52
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divabot posted:Those posts are by Anna Salamon, who originated "eight lives saved per dollar donated" at SIAI as it was. (Original phrasing: "You can divide it up, per half day of time, something like 800 lives. Per $100 of funding, also something like 800 lives.")
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Dec 12, 2016 13:58
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Look, Trump supporters are incredibly sheltered and averse to debate. Like, to an unreasonable degree, excessively, fully through the looking glass. They are total contrarians in the best case, and unreachable without protective equipment. Non-Trump supporters (which Trump supporters demonize to a degree way, way beyond mean feefee-hurting words) are under no obligation to them whatsoever, they should look at their own people and their needs instead
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Dec 12, 2016 14:24
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Hi guys. I was trapped in a time bubble on November 9th. It's December 12th for you but only a day later for me. Anyway here are my dumb-as-gently caress election hot takes.
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Dec 12, 2016 15:52
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Sax Solo posted:Hi guys. I was trapped in a time bubble on November 9th. It's December 12th for you but only a day later for me. Anyway here are my dumb-as-gently caress election hot takes. No go back in your time bubble you'll be happier 
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Dec 12, 2016 15:57
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