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Will the global economy implode in 2016?
We're hosed - I have stocked up on canned goods
My private security guards will shoot the paupers
We'll be good or at least coast along
I have no earthly clue
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Pollyanna
Mar 5, 2005

Milk's on them.


The end result of all this is that those white middle-upper class professionals won't have anyone to take care of them in their old age since their children will be too busy and poor to support them. This ends in tragedy for all involved.

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Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006
Probation
Can't post for 10 hours!

Helsing posted:

In fact Obama himself has been pretty candid about this at times and described himself as espousing ideas that would have placed him in the Republican party a couple decades ago.

It's in his book even.

SaTaMaS
Apr 18, 2003

Helsing posted:

And then he was forced to push through a bunch of awful trade deals that effectively give corporate tribunals a veto over national legislation.
That’s not really how a court system works. Just because a company can challenge a country’s laws doesn’t mean it is likely they will win

Helsing posted:

Sure almost the entire labour movement was united against the bill but I trust that the President had their best interests at heart.
These things don’t happen in a vacuum. What makes you think the alternative (RCEP) is better? I don’t think labor unions care much about handing the eastern hemisphere to China, since it’s not their job to care about that

Helsing posted:

And hey, he slightly raised marignal tax rates. I mean sure he was trying to cut social security and he forced everyone to buy crapified insurance that in many cases had co-pays so high that people were still filing for bankruptcy when they got ill but you have to understand that passing a bill modeled on a plan from a conservative Republican think tank was actually a historic success.
Still better than COBRA, also medical bankruptcies still happen almost as often under single-payer healthcare. If it's so bad, why are so many people buying it?

Helsing posted:

I mean, sure, the entire system has gone into a death spiral of withdrawing companies and rising premiums but no, I don't think that had anything to do with the Democrats losing in 2016. That was because of Russia!
It has not. While the recent significant increase in premiums has certainly been hyped enough, it was likely to be a one-time correction. It certainly will be if Trump manages to get Obamacare repealed

Helsing posted:

What's that you say? Obama oversaw a recovery that went almost exclusively to the 1%? But don't you see it's impossible to distribute gains from growth more evenly (let alone redistribute wealth) because ~*secular stagnation*~ ! Perhaps you'd understand if you had an e-mail notification coming to your phone every time Ezra Klein writes a new article.
18% of the recovery going to the 1% isn’t great, but saying the recovery went almost exclusively to the 1% is simply false. As a result of the 2008 crash, inequality in the US is basically the same as it was 2 decades ago. Secular stagnation IS the bigger problem, and it’s a big problem all across the entire world

rscott
Dec 10, 2009
The top 1% captured 91% of the real income growth per family during the 2009-2012 recovery period, with their pre-tax incomes growing 34.7% adjusted for inflation while the pre-tax incomes of the bottom 99% grew 0.8%. Measured from 2009–2015, the top 1% captured 52% of the total real income growth per family, indicating the recovery was becoming less "lopsided" in favor of higher income families. By 2015, the top 10% (top decile) had a 50.5% share of the pre-tax income, close its highest all-time level.

According to an article in The New Yorker, by 2012, the share of pre-tax income received by the top 1% had returned to its pre-crisis peak, at around 23% of the pre-tax income.

By 2015, real incomes of bottom 99% have now recovered about two thirds of the losses experienced during the Great Recession from 2007 to 2009.

Clearly economic inequality has returned to those halcyon days of 1996

Proud Christian Mom
Dec 20, 2006
READING COMPREHENSION IS HARD
The 1% has been sucking money out of the workforce for 40 years and some guy seriously thinks like 1 year of it happening slightly less is something to cheer lead about.

Neoliberalism cannot fail, we can only fail neoliberalism.

Pollyanna
Mar 5, 2005

Milk's on them.


I don't care about the marginal growths and thingies and whatever, all I know is top 1% bottom 99% etc etc Bernie was right. Anything that evens out the inequality and makes it so that we aren't amazingly hosed would be great.

SaTaMaS
Apr 18, 2003

rscott posted:

The top 1% captured 91% of the real income growth per family during the 2009-2012 recovery period, with their pre-tax incomes growing 34.7% adjusted for inflation while the pre-tax incomes of the bottom 99% grew 0.8%. Measured from 2009–2015, the top 1% captured 52% of the total real income growth per family, indicating the recovery was becoming less "lopsided" in favor of higher income families. By 2015, the top 10% (top decile) had a 50.5% share of the pre-tax income, close its highest all-time level.
Yes if you start measuring right after a massive drop, you're going to see a big spike. Also as you said "close its highest all-time level"

rscott posted:

According to an article in The New Yorker, by 2012, the share of pre-tax income received by the top 1% had returned to its pre-crisis peak, at around 23% of the pre-tax income.
Which puts them back near the previous peak around 1999

rscott posted:

By 2015, real incomes of bottom 99% have now recovered about two thirds of the losses experienced during the Great Recession from 2007 to 2009.

Clearly economic inequality has returned to those halcyon days of 1996
The halcyon days before the crash in 2000 at least

Yes the rich getting richer is bad, but maybe pay attention to the situation that the rest of the world is in before killing off the goose that laid the golden egg

NewForumSoftware
Oct 8, 2016

by Lowtax
Now tell us about how wealth inequality is just like 1999 too

Accretionist
Nov 7, 2012
I BELIEVE IN STUPID CONSPIRACY THEORIES
It was my understanding that rising inequality can spur secular stagnation.

rscott
Dec 10, 2009

SaTaMaS posted:

Yes if you start measuring right after a massive drop, you're going to see a big spike. Also as you said "close its highest all-time level"

Which puts them back near the previous peak around 1999

The halcyon days before the crash in 2000 at least

Yes the rich getting richer is bad, but maybe pay attention to the situation that the rest of the world is in before killing off the goose that laid the golden egg

The peak in income for the top 1% was in 2012, you don't know what the gently caress you're even talking about, just stop.

e: I mean if your argument is that Obama isn't any better or worse than Clinton, Bush or Reagan cool I don't think anyone is disputing that since that's the point all the leftists in this thread have been making all along

rscott fucked around with this message at 02:38 on Jan 1, 2017

SaTaMaS
Apr 18, 2003

rscott posted:

The peak in income for the top 1% was in 2012, you don't know what the gently caress you're even talking about, just stop.

Share of income is a better measure, and that peaked around 2007
http://www.cbpp.org/income-concentration-at-the-top-has-risen-sharply-since-the-1970s-1

rscott
Dec 10, 2009

http://eml.berkeley.edu/~saez/saez-UStopincomes-2015.pdf

Same guy says otherwise???

e: Whoops top 10% vs top 1%

CheeseSpawn
Sep 15, 2004
Doctor Rope

axeil posted:

i'm in the industry and i'm gonna stop you right there and say that you have no idea what the gently caress you're talking about.

were there homes foreclosed on where there was basically no documentation/proof? yes. but those were outliers in the group. usually it was a case where both the servicer and the borrower knew what was up but since the servicer couldn't prove it they were SOL. the majority of the loans that were robo-signed would've been proper so long as they didn't have a robot doing it.

a lot of money went into fixing the problems around documentation and robo-signing with lots of nasty downstream effects that didn't get play in the press because they were ideology neutral. things like the FHA taking a massive bath on its insured properties because its lenders were unable to foreclose for years and so instead of getting a house in mostly good condition, they got a house 2 years later that was a hole in the ground. that ends up costing the government a lot of money since the FHA is now unable to sell the home and has to write off the asset as a total loss. if that happened even a few times it's a multi-million dollar loss to the government and i know that it happened a lot more than "just a few times"

nothing is simple. anyone saying all the problems in america are caused by X and if we just did Y things would be fine have a child-like understanding of the economy. poo poo's complicated and casting heroes and villains will make you feel good but won't solve any problems.

Do you want to talk about the effectiveness of HAMP while you're at it?

Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

Happy New Year my fellow men! A period of massive economic tumult awaits us all! :kheldragar:

Pollyanna
Mar 5, 2005

Milk's on them.


New Year's Resolution: figure out how to make money off our hosed up system.

ToxicSlurpee
Nov 5, 2003

-=SEND HELP=-


Pillbug

Pollyanna posted:

New Year's Resolution: figure out how to make money off our hosed up system.

Get rid of all your morals.

Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

ToxicSlurpee posted:

Get rid of all your morals.
And regain them when the storms pass. Hide them somewhere, rather.

cheese
Jan 7, 2004

Shop around for doctors! Always fucking shop for doctors. Doctors are stupid assholes. And they get by because people are cowed by their mystical bullshit quality of being able to maintain a 3.0 GPA at some Guatemalan medical college for 3 semesters. Find one that makes sense.
Fair enough. I didn't know they were a big thing before the 08 election but I guess they just soared into prominence because of the huge Democratic electoral victory. I know they lost a lot (most?) of their members after the 08 peak, but you are right.

Was there anything else you felt was wrong besides the start date year of the Blue Dog Coalition?

Your position seems to boil down to "Well Obama made things marginally better, therefore was he really a failure?". No one is saying that ACA isn't better than loving COBRA, we are saying he had what might be a once in a generation opportunity to affect big change to the vast disparities and inequalities in the American economy and he really didn't try.

cheese fucked around with this message at 07:12 on Jan 1, 2017

icantfindaname
Jul 1, 2008


watch Trump appoint the reincarnation of Volcker to the Fed board and get crushed in 2020

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

SaTaMaS posted:

That’s not really how a court system works. Just because a company can challenge a country’s laws doesn’t mean it is likely they will win

ISDS are not a traditional court system, it's a system of arbitration and no that is exactly the opposite how they tend to work out. It has successfully been used to bully third-world countries from enacting everything from labor and environmental laws to re-nationalization of mishandled resources. Mining methods poisoning your fresh-water supply? Better buckle up because if you try to do anything about it you can be sued to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars.

Doc Hawkins
Jun 15, 2010

Dashing? But I'm not even moving!


Pollyanna posted:

New Year's Resolution: figure out how to make money off our hosed up system.

Relax, we're developers. As capital continues to slosh around in search of returns, and people become more and more normalized to doing things online, the livelihood for lucky assholes like us almost assured. Heavily diversified after tax accounts are still a good option for people who can trust their own salaries.

The real problem is all the people who don't have that choice, who we can help through joint political action! And like, running free neighborhood breakfasts.

e: first draft sounded complacent, even smug, and that's not how i feel

Doc Hawkins fucked around with this message at 08:46 on Jan 1, 2017

Arglebargle III
Feb 21, 2006

ToxicSlurpee posted:

Get rid of all your morals.

gently caress I'm levered up to my eyeballs buying stock in mushrooms and you tell me this now?!

Huragok
Sep 14, 2011

SaTaMaS posted:

medical bankruptcies still happen almost as often under single-payer healthcare

[citation needed]

axeil
Feb 14, 2006

Pollyanna posted:

I don't care about the marginal growths and thingies and whatever, all I know is top 1% bottom 99% etc etc Bernie was right. Anything that evens out the inequality and makes it so that we aren't amazingly hosed would be great.

"i don't care about facts or anything else objective but i'm upset and i want my feelings validated!"

Ynglaur
Oct 9, 2013

The Malta Conference, anyone?

axeil posted:

"i don't care about facts or anything else objective but i'm upset and i want my feelings validated!"

populism.txt

anonumos
Jul 14, 2005

Fuck it.

Pollyanna posted:

I had a (pretty uneducated) thought. If we do see another crash and depression, does that present an opportunity to buy up a bunch of cheap stock, or is that inadvisable? If everyone has the same idea, won't that cause stock prices to rise back up?

Is always best to think counter-cyclical, but it's never very simple to identify the cycle you're supposed to be counter to. IE: recessions ARE good times to buy fire sale investments, but it can be really hard identifying the dead wood from something that will grow again post-recession.

forkboy84
Jun 13, 2012

Corgis love bread. And Puro


SaTaMaS posted:

Still better than COBRA, also medical bankruptcies still happen almost as often under single-payer healthcare. If it's so bad, why are so many people buying it?

Having lived for all of my 32 years in a country with a single-payer healthcare system, literally never met a single person who has gone through a medical bankruptcy. The NHS, despite the best efforts of economic liberals to sell parts of it to the private sector for some vaunted "competition", works. Is it perfect? Clearly not. Waiting times for non-emergency treatments can be longer than you'd like generally, and some new treatments simply cost too much to justify being introduced as early as you'd like. Still an amazing system and the idea that the worlds wealthiest nation doesn't think it can handle it is absurd.

Pollyanna
Mar 5, 2005

Milk's on them.


Doc Hawkins posted:

Relax, we're developers. As capital continues to slosh around in search of returns, and people become more and more normalized to doing things online, the livelihood for lucky assholes like us almost assured. Heavily diversified after tax accounts are still a good option for people who can trust their own salaries.

The real problem is all the people who don't have that choice, who we can help through joint political action! And like, running free neighborhood breakfasts.

e: first draft sounded complacent, even smug, and that's not how i feel

Maybe, but I see the tech bubble collapsing soon. VCs are getting pissed that there are less and less unicorns out there and startups tend to fail a lot more often now. They've lost their luster and although software engineering is always going to be in demand in some way, I don't see it going on the up n up and instead see stagnation coming up. We'll see, I guess.

rscott
Dec 10, 2009

SaTaMaS posted:


Still better than COBRA, also medical bankruptcies still happen almost as often under single-payer healthcare. If it's so bad, why are so many people buying it?

Because they have to? That's why ppaca is a handout to insurance companies and the health care industry as a whole, you're forced to buy insurance but the price controls are weak to non existent, the out of pocket maximums even before you take into account out of network providers are so high as to put the majority of Americans in default if they face a major medical issue

bird food bathtub
Aug 9, 2003

College Slice

forkboy84 posted:

Still an amazing system and the idea that the worlds wealthiest nation doesn't think it can handle it is absurd.

A lot of Americans want it. poo poo tons of Americans want it. Phrased right to avoid the propaganda-created responses to key words I think it crosses over to a majority but I'm going off memory on that point.

Those Americans are not the 1% that can go purchase a congressional representative and throw an army of lobbyists at the rest, so in our system they basically don't count and we end up with solutions that are more palatable to the wealthy, or "market based".

cheese
Jan 7, 2004

Shop around for doctors! Always fucking shop for doctors. Doctors are stupid assholes. And they get by because people are cowed by their mystical bullshit quality of being able to maintain a 3.0 GPA at some Guatemalan medical college for 3 semesters. Find one that makes sense.

bird food bathtub posted:

A lot of Americans want it. poo poo tons of Americans want it. Phrased right to avoid the propaganda-created responses to key words I think it crosses over to a majority but I'm going off memory on that point.

Those Americans are not the 1% that can go purchase a congressional representative and throw an army of lobbyists at the rest, so in our system they basically don't count and we end up with solutions that are more palatable to the wealthy, or "market based".
It has like 70%+ approval when you phrase it as "Medicare for all" because Medicare loving owns and everyone's grandma is on it and loves it.

SaTaMaS
Apr 18, 2003

Huragok posted:

[citation needed]

In Canada, about 15% of bankruptcies are due to medical bills, while in the US, about 18%-25% of bankruptcies are due to medical bills

http://www.snopes.com/643000-bankruptcies-in-the-u-s-every-year-due-to-medical-bills/
http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/economy-a-budget/263547-the-myth-of-medical-bankruptcy
http://theconversation.com/why-medical-debt-and-bankruptcy-are-growing-problems-35532

rscott
Dec 10, 2009

*15% of Canadian seniors

** One study done by a guy publishing in the Wall Street Journal, other estimates place it between 45-60% of bankruptcies in the US

There fixed that so it's actually accurate instead of the intentionally misleading crap you have constantly posted in this thread

SaTaMaS
Apr 18, 2003

rscott posted:

*15% of Canadian seniors

** One study done by a guy publishing in the Wall Street Journal, other estimates place it between 45-60% of bankruptcies in the US

There fixed that so it's actually accurate instead of the intentionally misleading crap you have constantly posted in this thread

edit: from the link -

quote:

The data revealed that 61% of all debtors carry medical debt and that the average medical debt per debtor in 2013 was US$9,374. Debtors in my sample also reported an average of $55,967 in unsecured debt and annual income of $40,920. Of these, a total of 18% of debtors had medical debt that was greater than half of their total unsecured debt or half of their annual income.

One of the key reasons that people file for bankruptcy is to discharge unsecured debt. If medical bills make up more than half of a person’s unsecured debt or is greater than half of their income, then medical debt is probably a major factor in causing the person to file bankruptcy.

Around 18% of debtors in my sample had medical debt greater than half of their total unsecured debt or annual income, so we can conclude that medical debt was the predominant factor in 18% of the bankruptcies in my sample.

This higher number was just anyone who had any medical debt at all, vs the number for whom medical debt was the major reason for bankrupcy

SaTaMaS fucked around with this message at 21:07 on Jan 1, 2017

Helsing
Aug 23, 2003

DON'T POST IN THE ELECTION THREAD UNLESS YOU :love::love::love: JOE BIDEN

SaTaMaS posted:

In Canada, about 15% of bankruptcies are due to medical bills, while in the US, about 18%-25% of bankruptcies are due to medical bills

http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/economy-a-budget/263547-the-myth-of-medical-bankruptcy


quote:

Medical bankruptcy: Fact or fiction?
BY SALLY C. PIPES, PRESIDENT, PACIFIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE - 10/23/12 04:30 PM EDT

This woman is the President of a "think" tank that, by it's own description, "champions freedom, opportunity, and personal responsibility by advancing free-market policy ideas." It even has a "Laffer Center" named after Art loving Laffer, the genius behind Reagonomics. And that article you're citing leans heavily on a "study" by the Fraser Institute. And even that bullshit study, which is coming from an organization that can be expected to juke the stats in whatever way is necessary to reach it's desired conclusion, still has to essentially cheat by including the proviso that many of the medical bankruptcies among Canadian seniors are from problems their insurance doesn't actually cover.

These are not objective or peer reviewed studies they are propaganda pieces produced by think tanks whose only reason for existence is to advance the agenda of the people and corporations who pay into their extremely opaque funding structures. Is there any reason that you would drop these links -- both of which you clearly pulled from the snopes article -- except to try and create the false impression that you did more research than a very cursory google search? Not only are you bolstering your argument in the most clumsy and stupid way possible, you're citing sources that make you sound like a blithering idiot. Next you're probably going to say Obama was in the right for trying to cut social security and then you'll cite Paul Ryan's economic plan.

The actual study behind your claim is here. The first thing you read in the actual study is that this is still a contentious area of research with different researchers producing wildly different findings. Austin's particular findings are an outlier. Warren (writing before Obamacare was implemented) concluded the results were closer to 60%. In another study by Himmelston (2009) finds 62.1% of bankruptcies are medically caused. Other studies varied from the high teens to high twenties as percentages. In general these studies produce numbers that vary depending on methodology or on how you define the object of study.

Helsing
Aug 23, 2003

DON'T POST IN THE ELECTION THREAD UNLESS YOU :love::love::love: JOE BIDEN
One of the greatest problems with American medical care is not lack of insurance -- though that is certainly a huge problem, which Obamacare's crapified insurance plans often fail to rectify -- it's massively inflated costs. And Obamacare has failed to deal with that problem. This is one reason why we see people going bankrupt due to medical costs even in cases where they have insurance. Hell, the American government doesn't even allow itself to negotiate drug prices for medicare -- it's literally prohibited by law. If those kinds of bizzare regulations aren't a big flashign red light to you saying the system is fundamentally broken then I really don't know what to tell you.

Not to mention the money that could be saved just by trimming administration costs. There is so much dead weight in the system and of course the Democrats had no interest in trying to get rid of it:

quote:

results

In 1999, health administration costs totaled at least $294.3 billion in the United States,
or $1,059 per capita, as compared with $307 per capita in Canada. After exclusions, administration
accounted for 31.0 percent of health care expenditures in the United States
and 16.7 percent of health care expenditures in Canada. Canada’s national health insurance
program had overhead of 1.3 percent; the overhead among Canada’s private insurers
was higher than that in the United States (13.2 percent vs. 11.7 percent). Providers’
administrative costs were far lower in Canada.
Between 1969 and 1999, the share of the U.S. health care labor force accounted for
by administrative workers grew from 18.2 percent to 27.3 percent. In Canada, it grew
from 16.0 percent in 1971 to 19.1 percent in 1996. (Both nations’ figures exclude insurance-industry
personnel.)

conclusions

The gap between U.S. and Canadian spending on health care administration has grown
to $752 per capita. A large sum might be saved in the United States if administrative costs
could be trimmed by implementing a Canadian-style health care system.

Freakazoid_
Jul 5, 2013


Buglord

Arglebargle III posted:

gently caress I'm levered up to my eyeballs buying stock in mushrooms and you tell me this now?!

If you mean white button, then you're set, because our nuclear hellscape underground megacities will need easy to grow nourishment.

ToxicSlurpee
Nov 5, 2003

-=SEND HELP=-


Pillbug

Helsing posted:

One of the greatest problems with American medical care is not lack of insurance -- though that is certainly a huge problem, which Obamacare's crapified insurance plans often fail to rectify -- it's massively inflated costs. And Obamacare has failed to deal with that problem. This is one reason why we see people going bankrupt due to medical costs even in cases where they have insurance. Hell, the American government doesn't even allow itself to negotiate drug prices for medicare -- it's literally prohibited by law. If those kinds of bizzare regulations aren't a big flashign red light to you saying the system is fundamentally broken then I really don't know what to tell you.

Not to mention the money that could be saved just by trimming administration costs. There is so much dead weight in the system and of course the Democrats had no interest in trying to get rid of it:

That's America in general, though; rampant administrative costs in just kind of everything. Nepotism and bonuses for high ranking people making good short term numbers.

It's a time-honored American tradition to corrupt the system to its very core and get your pals cushy jobs telling other people they need to make these numbers better or else.

SaTaMaS
Apr 18, 2003

Helsing posted:

This woman is the President of a "think" tank that, by it's own description, "champions freedom, opportunity, and personal responsibility by advancing free-market policy ideas." It even has a "Laffer Center" named after Art loving Laffer, the genius behind Reagonomics. And that article you're citing leans heavily on a "study" by the Fraser Institute. And even that bullshit study, which is coming from an organization that can be expected to juke the stats in whatever way is necessary to reach it's desired conclusion, still has to essentially cheat by including the proviso that many of the medical bankruptcies among Canadian seniors are from problems their insurance doesn't actually cover.

These are not objective or peer reviewed studies they are propaganda pieces produced by think tanks whose only reason for existence is to advance the agenda of the people and corporations who pay into their extremely opaque funding structures. Is there any reason that you would drop these links -- both of which you clearly pulled from the snopes article -- except to try and create the false impression that you did more research than a very cursory google search? Not only are you bolstering your argument in the most clumsy and stupid way possible, you're citing sources that make you sound like a blithering idiot. Next you're probably going to say Obama was in the right for trying to cut social security and then you'll cite Paul Ryan's economic plan.

The actual study behind your claim is here. The first thing you read in the actual study is that this is still a contentious area of research with different researchers producing wildly different findings. Austin's particular findings are an outlier. Warren (writing before Obamacare was implemented) concluded the results were closer to 60%. In another study by Himmelston (2009) finds 62.1% of bankruptcies are medically caused. Other studies varied from the high teens to high twenties as percentages. In general these studies produce numbers that vary depending on methodology or on how you define the object of study.

Yes the study says exactly what I quoted before, and that the 62.1% number is way off. The difference is the same as before - 62.1% is if you include every bankruptcy that included more than $1000 of medical bills, while 18% to 26% is bankruptcies that were primarily caused by medical bills. The second estimate is the less politically motivated one.

quote:

The data adduced in this study shows that medical bills are the single largest causal factor in consumer bankruptcy—but not to the degree found in the study cited by President Obama. My study concludes that medical debt is the predominant causal factor in 18% to 26% of all consumer bankruptcies.

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asdf32
May 15, 2010

I lust for childrens' deaths. Ask me about how I don't care if my kids die.
It's going to be interesting watching Trump attempt to cut healthcare costs while constantly beating the "jobs" drum. Costs are jobs. Healthcare is close to 20% of the economy. Cutting healthcare 10% knocks out 2% of GDP.

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