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paternity suitor posted:What's the new Beanie Babies? Nah there was a good article somewhere a while back with world-leading basketball shoe collectors in tears because the synthetic materials degrade into a pile of dust and goo after ~30 years even if they're stored perfectly. Factory automation maintenance spares would be my bet. Up until sometime in the 90s specialty equipment was, at the component level, made out of standard common parts that are still readily available in new production today. The transition to SMD, ASIC, and FPGA technologies have made any kind of custom or short run electronics nigh unrepairable and a manufacturing company losing $50k an hour because one machine is down does not ask questions about price when they want random circuit board xyz with an exact part number match hand couriered here on the first flight you can charter. shame on an IGA fucked around with this message at 16:00 on Jan 12, 2017 |
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Jan 12, 2017 15:53
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shame on an IGA posted:Nah there was a good article somewhere a while back with world-leading basketball shoe collectors in tears because the synthetic materials degrade into a pile of dust and goo after ~30 years even if they're stored perfectly. Hahaha, that's amazing
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Jan 12, 2017 15:55
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shame on an IGA posted:Nah there was a good article somewhere a while back with world-leading basketball shoe collectors in tears because the synthetic materials degrade into a pile of dust and goo after ~30 years even if they're stored perfectly. Oh my God I had no idea - here's the article. https://www.wired.com/2015/05/sneakers/
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Jan 12, 2017 16:01
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Here it is: https://www.wired.com/2015/05/sneakers/ E: doh
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Jan 12, 2017 16:05
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shame on an IGA posted:Factory automation maintenance spares would be my bet. Up until sometime in the 90s specialty equipment was, at the component level, made out of standard common parts that are still readily available in new production today. The transition to SMD, ASIC, and FPGA technologies have made any kind of custom or short run electronics nigh unrepairable and a manufacturing company losing $50k an hour because one machine is down does not ask questions about price when they want random circuit board xyz with an exact part number match hand couriered here on the first flight you can charter. I think he meant Beanie Babies in the sense you meant sneakers - at the time a "hot investment" but now actually worthless. Your idea about keeping automation spares around is actually pretty genius.
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Jan 12, 2017 16:34
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Just dumped $5k into NTDOY because I'm an idiot. 
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Jan 12, 2017 16:50
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EAT FASTER!!!!!! posted:Oh my God I had no idea - here's the article. Article posted:It’s only a matter of time before some guy in Brooklyn starts churning out “artisanal” argon chambers constructed from cold rolled 18-gauge steel, and selling them to sneakerheads for an ungodly price. If you read the article, your next million dollar idea is staring you right in the face
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Jan 12, 2017 17:08
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leper khan posted:Just dumped $5k into NTDOY because I'm an idiot. Oh, goodness! Going hard in the paint are we?
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Jan 12, 2017 17:28
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shame on an IGA posted:Nah there was a good article somewhere a while back with world-leading basketball shoe collectors in tears because the synthetic materials degrade into a pile of dust and goo after ~30 years even if they're stored perfectly. I can definitely attest to the latter part of this quote. I ran the purchasing and spare parts department for a medium sized automation company and I can't tell you how many times I had parts couriered to end users. Even with providing them recommended spare parts lists, consignment inventories, etc. they still would often run out due to miss-management. This wasn't with companies using a machine or two either, but large multinationals with a large quantity of machines. My overall margin on spare parts was over 65% gross, while some products (especially the price protected ones for specialized tech pieces; think sensors from SICK GMBH) were over a 300% markup. All of this and they would gladly expedite anything if it meant keeping the line up.
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Jan 12, 2017 18:03
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Fiat Chrysler ( FCAU ) accused of cheating emissions by the US EPA. Stock dropped >17% at its worst, but it's climbing back.
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Jan 12, 2017 19:43
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Blinky2099 posted:Fiat Chrysler ( FCAU ) accused of cheating emissions by the US EPA. Stock dropped >17% at its worst, but it's climbing back. In 8 days we won't have an EPA anymore. Buy buy buy!
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Jan 12, 2017 19:44
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UNBRIDLED CAPITALISM AHOY!
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Jan 12, 2017 19:49
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VW execs are facing criminal charges over that, I wonder what's gonna happen with Fiat/Chrysler.
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Jan 12, 2017 20:27
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Leperflesh posted:VW execs are facing criminal charges over that, I wonder what's gonna happen with Fiat/Chrysler. An in depth investigation, a fine, maybe some kind of restrictions or oversight and then back to business as usual.
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Jan 12, 2017 20:28
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edit: nevermind I don't know enough about the trump administration and possible punishments and all that it could be a really wide range from "they actually aren't guilty whatsoever" to massive fines/imprisonment
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Jan 12, 2017 20:59
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shame on an IGA posted:Factory automation maintenance spares would be my bet. Up until sometime in the 90s specialty equipment was, at the component level, made out of standard common parts that are still readily available in new production today. The transition to SMD, ASIC, and FPGA technologies have made any kind of custom or short run electronics nigh unrepairable and a manufacturing company losing $50k an hour because one machine is down does not ask questions about price when they want random circuit board xyz with an exact part number match hand couriered here on the first flight you can charter. Ya snuck this one in there, but this is pretty spot on. I've seen similar situations in aerospace where I could have basically held a company ransom with the right spare parts.
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Jan 12, 2017 21:45
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Trip report: Worst trade of the past year: buying FSLR @ 43.30, 39.10 & 37.79 (40.06 avg). Selling @ 33.58 Best trade of the past year: buying STRP @ 17.16. Selling 40% @ 34.12 and the rest today @ 51.00.  Now that I'm out of STRP it'll surely climb to $100-200 in the coming months.
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Jan 12, 2017 22:04
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paternity suitor posted:Ya snuck this one in there, but this is pretty spot on. I've seen similar situations in aerospace where I could have basically held a company ransom with the right spare parts. So what type of parts should I buy and leave in storage?
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Jan 12, 2017 23:42
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Solice Kirsk posted:So what type of parts should I buy and leave in storage? Circuit board modules that are super specific to the application. Say you picked up some kind of CNC machine as scrap, first priority would be anything in the control cabinet bearing the name of the company that made the machine instead of a company that made electronics. Anything with a manufacturer that went out of business Stuff with firmware. A microchip in any kind of socket that has a paper label stuck on most likely carries some sort of software that will be impossible to replace after enough time even if the company is still open and the individual guy who wrote it still works there
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Jan 13, 2017 00:00
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Paul Proteus posted:I can definitely attest to the latter part of this quote. I ran the purchasing and spare parts department for a medium sized automation company and I can't tell you how many times I had parts couriered to end users. Even with providing them recommended spare parts lists, consignment inventories, etc. they still would often run out due to miss-management. This wasn't with companies using a machine or two either, but large multinationals with a large quantity of machines. My overall margin on spare parts was over 65% gross, while some products (especially the price protected ones for specialized tech pieces; think sensors from SICK GMBH) were over a 300% markup. All of this and they would gladly expedite anything if it meant keeping the line up. Oh god maintenance guys spazzing out about P/N matching sensors especially drives me nuts. Our spares dept stocks something like four dozen different models of M12 inductive prox sensors without understanding almost nothing matters except the range spec. Yeah it has 3 pins, normally open, takes 24v? It'll work dude. Back on topic, this is analogous to finding someone not just willing but demanding to pay a 500% premium for FUSEX over VFINX shame on an IGA fucked around with this message at 00:28 on Jan 13, 2017 |
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Jan 13, 2017 00:05
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Leperflesh posted:Take ten thousand monkeys and have them all make random picks five times a day. After five years, you'll have a bell curve of performance. One tail of that bell curve will be massively outperforming the market, and the other tail massively underperforming. Were the monkeys that did great successfully picking stocks? No, they were just lucky. The more monkeys you have in total, the more lucky monkeys you'll have in five years. The longer you stretch out your experiment, the fewer monkeys stay lucky, but if you have enough monkeys, there will always be a few lucky ones out front. There's nothing wrong with being lucky if it drives results ~ We live in a hella irrational universe, after all
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Jan 13, 2017 02:44
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Solice Kirsk posted:So what type of parts should I buy and leave in storage? Already touched on but anything by a manufacturer that's out of business, or anything that's discontinued. Sometimes it's because a company got bought out and the new company decides to discontinue, sometimes even a popular part can be unprofitable so they just discontinue it. Sometimes a popular part gets used for so long that the underlying process is discontinued. Companies are alerted to all of this for high rel parts by the way, but companies are stupid and don't listen to their parts engineers screaming to make "life time" buys. And sometimes lifetime buys don't last, well, a life time.
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Jan 13, 2017 03:49
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What do you all think of individual country ETFs, as a concept?
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Jan 13, 2017 05:45
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goose willis posted:What do you all think of individual country ETFs, as a concept? Why not just do FOREX
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Jan 13, 2017 06:36
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EAT FASTER!!!!!! posted:Oh, goodness! Going hard in the paint are we? Was I supposed to huff it or drink it? Because I probably need to do whichever the one I didn't do was to forget about all the money that just disappeared after that press event.
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Jan 13, 2017 06:37
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paternity suitor posted:Already touched on but anything by a manufacturer that's out of business, or anything that's discontinued. Sometimes it's because a company got bought out and the new company decides to discontinue, sometimes even a popular part can be unprofitable so they just discontinue it. Sometimes a popular part gets used for so long that the underlying process is discontinued. Companies are alerted to all of this for high rel parts by the way, but companies are stupid and don't listen to their parts engineers screaming to make "life time" buys. And sometimes lifetime buys don't last, well, a life time. And sometimes they scrap half a million dollars of NIB robot parts the week before christmas because inventory taxes. (Not bitter)
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Jan 13, 2017 06:38
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Leperflesh posted:Why not just do FOREX
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Jan 13, 2017 07:48
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goose willis posted:What do you all think of individual country ETFs, as a concept? I personally have not invested in them, but I've considered it in the past. I see it as no different than investing in an emerging market fund, or an MSCI fund, etc. Just more focused. What country are you eying up? If I had to pick a move in that regard, I think I would short Canada.
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Jan 13, 2017 14:28
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Investing (seriously) in weed: http://www.thecannabist.co/2017/01/12/marijuana-investments-wall-street-conference/71202/
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Jan 13, 2017 14:46
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leper khan posted:Was I supposed to huff it or drink it? Yeah I think I would have rather had the $300. Or maybe WF instead.
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Jan 13, 2017 17:05
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Pryor on Fire posted:Investing (seriously) in weed: http://www.thecannabist.co/2017/01/12/marijuana-investments-wall-street-conference/71202/ I bought some IIPR last month based on the intial announced terms of the sale-leaseback they were executing in New York that has subsequently closed. It's a risky investment, but the pricing on their greenhouse deal was something that I liked, plus the management fees they collect on the 3rd party properties they manage are pretty attractive and they have a first mover advantage in the space.
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Jan 13, 2017 17:21
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loving lol FSLR
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Jan 13, 2017 20:52
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Leperflesh posted:Take ten thousand monkeys and have them all make random picks five times a day. After five years, you'll have a bell curve of performance. One tail of that bell curve will be massively outperforming the market, and the other tail massively underperforming. Were the monkeys that did great successfully picking stocks? No, they were just lucky. The more monkeys you have in total, the more lucky monkeys you'll have in five years. The longer you stretch out your experiment, the fewer monkeys stay lucky, but if you have enough monkeys, there will always be a few lucky ones out front. Ansatz that lies behind bell curve phenomena is independence and identical distribution. Would you say in plain English that the performance of the stock market today has nothing to do with the performance of the stock market tomorrow? What about the stock market performance of 2008? Because that is what independence says. Would you say in plain English that there is no information in the stock market and that the stock market doesn't process information? Because that's what a Gaussian assumption says. You cannot use Gaussians for learning systems. Mandelbrot noted stock market performance followed Pareto distribution: this is one of the only worthwhile parts of Taleb's books, his noting of that fact. You can't have expectations about monkey performance, Pareto distribution doesn't work that way (go read the wikipedia, goggle at that "\infty" for expectation...). Existence and Nature hate our guts in this precise manner
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Jan 13, 2017 21:01
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curufinor posted:Ansatz that lies behind bell curve phenomena is independence and identical distribution. Would you say in plain English that the performance of the stock market today has nothing to do with the performance of the stock market tomorrow? What about the stock market performance of 2008? Because that is what independence says. Would you say in plain English that there is no information in the stock market and that the stock market doesn't process information? Because that's what a Gaussian assumption says. You cannot use Gaussians for learning systems. The events that occur on the price of stocks in the market do not follow a Gaussian distribution. However, it's very likely that a random sample of monkeys randomly picking stocks to buy and sell at random times will have outcomes within a Gaussian distribution, and that if you picked the cohort exceeding median performance by two standard deviations and ran more trials with them, that they could not reproduce their first results that put them ahead of the curve. Which was the entire point of Leperflesh's post.
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Jan 13, 2017 21:08
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So, apart from my retirement account I've moved to a good deal of cash and have hedged 90% of my speculative positions (by essentially turning them into calls). I really don't know what's going to happen but the mood seems wildly over-optimistic right now. I don't mind missing out on some potential gains to protect against a possible plunge. I'm most bullish about US cash-rich tech companies.
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Jan 13, 2017 21:17
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Agronox posted:I really don't know what's going to happen but the mood seems wildly over-optimistic right now. I don't mind missing out on some potential gains to protect against a possible plunge. I agree with this, I am about 50% stocks now and have been debating going down to 40% for the next year or two and/or buying puts, but options always seem to have so much premium i hate buying them. People really do seem to feel that king cheeto is going to be great, but all I see is automation continuing to kill jobs particularly in driving and trucking, taxes for anyone making up to 250k staying basically the same (based on Trump's plan on his website), and government programs getting killed or looted for profit. I don't really know where to invest instead though. Maybe I'll just buy some Berkshire stock later this year.
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Jan 13, 2017 21:36
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Trash Trick posted:loving lol FSLR  Meanwhile, AMD and NVDA continue to gently caress me in a very uncomfortable place.
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Jan 13, 2017 21:45
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I just look at NVDA at the beginning of this year where it had been essentially "flat" for 4 years (within 100% of its price) and then all of a sudden it is trading at 5-10x that historical baseline and think "man, I never could have seen that coming" which makes me pretty unwilling to speculate on stock with significant amounts of money.
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Jan 13, 2017 22:31
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Dwight Eisenhower posted:The events that occur on the price of stocks in the market do not follow a Gaussian distribution. Thanks, yeah. I did not intend to make any assertions about the randomness or nonrandomness of the market itself; the discussion is about determining whether the excellent results of a small number of human stock-pickers ought to be attributed to their skill, or to their luck. There is a strong tendency to look at the stock pickers on the far end of the successful tail of the distribution and presume - without sufficient evidence - that they are skillful. (Moridin920 in particular expressed incredulity that even someone showing consistent success for 20 or 30 or more years straight, might merely be lucky.) Based on that determination of skill, posters in this thread are asserting that this means they, too, can be skillful; at the very least, skillfullness must be possible, if there are people that are doing it. I am unconvinced. I have never seen convincing evidence of skillfullness vs. luck, and - especially when you also take into account the survivor effect - actually only see a lot of evidence for luck. To the extent that skillfullness is possible, I suspect it is exceedingly rare, and that the conclusion the average SA Goon should reach given all of the above is that their dabbling in the stock market is almost always going to have luck-based outcomes rather than skill-based outcomes. One amusing result of that conclusion is that if you're just gambling anyway, you might as well apply whatever cockamamie choosing thesis you feel like, it doesn't matter. If I pick the numbers 1,2,3,4,5, and 6 for my lotto ticket, I'm no more or less likely to win than you are picking six random numbers. That is incorrect, of course, because while evidence of stock-picking skill is scant, there is plentiful evidence of the opposite: a greater than even number of stock-pickers appear to underperform. In other words, outperforming on a risk-adjusted bases is likely entirely due to luck, but you can still, given effort, cause yourself to underperform through anti-skill. Put more simply, you can clearly throw away all your money like an idiot, and luck won't bail you out most of the time. So: my over-arching stock-picking philosophy is that if you are going to play the market, you are gambling, but you still have to pay attention and work hard, just to make sure your chances are roughly even. If you play the stock market without any understanding or knowledge of what you're doing, use faulty reasoning, etc. your odds of success plunge well below that of a coin-flipper. So a thread like this, to the extent it attempts to give advice, is still very worthwhile, especially if the up-front first piece of advice is "lol don't buy stocks, it's gambling" but that is followed on by a bunch of good well-founded instruction and advice on how not to rapidly and fantastically fail at stock-based gambling.
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Jan 13, 2017 23:10
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Maslow's hierarchy of stock picking.
VendaGoat fucked around with this message at 23:23 on Jan 13, 2017 |
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Jan 13, 2017 23:13
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