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A Festivus Miracle
Dec 19, 2012

I have come to discourse on the profound inequities of the American political system.

suboptimal posted:

In Bangui, most people speak Sango, which is kind of the national language that's understood and spoken throughout the region. Older people, who are more likely to have had formal education than the younger generations, generally speak or at least understand French.

In Nigeria, most urban dwelling people seem to have some command of English because it's taught in schools. In addition to all of the regional dialects, people also speak pidgin English with one another. I never had a problem making myself understood or being able to understand any of the Nigerians I was talking with, but again, my perspective is different because I was in a huge city and the purpose-built administrative capital.

How are things in the CAR since Touadéra became president?

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pantslesswithwolves
Oct 28, 2008

A White Guy posted:

How are things in the CAR since Touadéra became president?

In Bangui itself, security conditions have gradually improved since the elections passed peacefully and with minimal accusations of fraud. People seem willing to give Touadera a chance, and there's a general sense of optimism that the 2.28 billion USD could go a long way to improving conditions- paving roads, building schools, and getting IDPs out of camps would really help. That being said, the country is at a crossroads now- if Touadera can meet the people's expectations, then that will help enormously, but if he fucks it up, then there's a chance for even more destabilization. When I was there, things were peaceful and I didn't hear any gunfire or see any obvious indicators of insecurity, but the way things are there, a simple personal dispute can quickly escalate into a full-scale firefight in a matter of minutes. Incidents like that are getting fewer and further between, although the PK5 neighborhood (the predominantly Muslim area) is regarded as a place you don't go to without a goddamn good reason to do so, and with really strict security measures.

MINUSCA has come under fire lately for being unable to prevent violence in Bambari and more recently, Bria. This can apparently be attributed to elements of the anti-Balaka (Christian/animist militias) and the Seleka (mostly Muslim groups) basically deteriorating into armed gangs and fighting over diamonds and other resources, not so much politics. MINUSCA has done a pretty good job of securing the capital, but the central government has never really extended its influence beyond Bangui in an appreciable sense. MINUSCA is trying to help with that, but with 13,000 personnel spread out throughout the country, it's difficult.

DarkCrawler posted:

So you could get by with just English in Lagos? I'll be there for a month next year...

Depends on where you're going to be staying/working. If you're on Lagos or Victoria Island, you shouldn't have much of a problem because that's where most of the government/foreign businesses operate. Anywhere else could be a bit more difficult, but it also depends on what kinds of people you'll be interacting with. Educated/business people/university students? No problem.

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
In Gambian news, the security forces are occupying the elecitoral commission HQ, and there are talks of a military solution:

quote:

The Gambia's security forces have taken over the headquarters of the electoral commission, its chairman says, as the country's president refuses to accept his loss in recent elections.
...
A senior official of regional bloc Ecowas, Marcel de Souza, would not rule out sending in troops.
"We have done it in the past," he told Radio France Internationale.
"We currently have troops in Guinea-Bissau with the Ecomib mission. We have had troops in Mali. And therefore it is a possible solution."

Mr Jammeh has questioned the validity of the count after the electoral commission changed some results, even though it insists the outcome was not affected.
The commission said Mr Barrow obtained 222,708 votes (43.3%) compared with Mr Jammeh's 208,487 (39.6%). A third candidate, Mama Kandeh, won 89,768 votes (17.1%).
So there was hope for like five seconds before turning into Africa.txt

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Considering the response to the Burkina Faso coup attempt last year and the Malian coup and Guinea-Bissau coup i'm not sure ECOWAS will give Jammeh much room on this.

Already seen mumbles that military intervention is not off the table, though if that happens it would be a bit of a step up

DarkCrawler
Apr 6, 2009

by vyelkin

mobby_6kl posted:

In Gambian news, the security forces are occupying the elecitoral commission HQ, and there are talks of a military solution:

So there was hope for like five seconds before turning into Africa.txt

Motherfuck. ECOWAS better shut this poo poo down. Someone Trujillo this megalomaniac rear end in a top hat

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012



ECOWAS are on the scene and do not look very happy. For reference from left to right that's Muhammadu Buhari (President of Nigeria), Ellen Johnson Sirleaf (President of Liberia), Jammeh himself looking a bit too happy, Ernest Bai Koroma (Sierra Leone) and out-going Ghanaian President John Mahama looking absolutely miserable

Also had a bit of chin wag with Barrow

https://twitter.com/MBuhari/status/808743105008717827

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

Didn't Buhari dispute the times he was a loser in 2003, 2007 and 2011? I hate Goodluck Jonathan, but he really belongs there more than Buhari as the only Nigerian leader to voluntarily step down after losing an election.

R. Mute
Jul 27, 2011

Foreign reporters are being deported from the DRC and social media is getting blocked. Sunday'll be interesting.

mila kunis
Jun 10, 2011
http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/...rld-s-countries

quote:

According to Special Operations Command, 55.29% of special operators deployed overseas in 2016 were sent to the Greater Middle East, a drop of 35% since 2006. Over the same span, deployments to Africa skyrocketed by more than 1600% -- from just 1% of special operators dispatched outside the US in 2006 to 17.26% last year.

I wonder what's going on to cause this.

Rent-A-Cop
Oct 15, 2004

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

Boko Haram, al Shabaab, and Horn of Africa piracy stuff is my bet.

Squalid
Nov 4, 2008


My guess is the majority of these guys are engaged in training African military personnel. AMISOM deployed to Somalia in 2007 and the US has offered a lot of training to soldiers involved in that conflict.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African_Union_Mission_to_Somalia#Training_for_contingents

KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD
Jul 7, 2012

Dude loving loves tissues. That's good cause Jammeh is never going voluntarily. Supposedly he is hiring mercenaries

mila kunis
Jun 10, 2011
Are there any good podcasts about current events in Africa?

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless
ECOWAS is going to intervene in Gambia if Jammeh doesn't leave by midnight. Forces are staging in Senegal, and Nigeria has a warship on the coast. Its air and ground forces are all staged as well. Ghana, Togo, and Mali are also participating.

ass struggle
Dec 25, 2012

by Athanatos
Do we know how loyal the Gambian forces are? Are the Senegalese going to be able to walk into Banjul?

Squalid
Nov 4, 2008

Does anyone know if Western governments are involved in this in anyway? I assume they'd at least give a go ahead for an intervention but what about intelligence/financial support?

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless
There's a way out.

https://twitter.com/SamanthaJPower/status/821870421284945921

ass struggle
Dec 25, 2012

by Athanatos
Have the Senegalese moved?

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless

rear end struggle posted:

Have the Senegalese moved?

Lots of planes with important people flying around and phone calls. I think talks were yielding results so they held back. Unconfirmed.

https://twitter.com/weddady/status/821881631325769731

Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

Volkerball posted:

Lots of planes with important people flying around and phone calls. I think talks were yielding results so they held back. Unconfirmed.

https://twitter.com/weddady/status/821881631325769731
That's not what the BBC has been reporting.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-38672840

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless

Grouchio posted:

That's not what the BBC has been reporting.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-38672840

BBC reported that after my post. I guess the talks didn't work out.

ass struggle
Dec 25, 2012

by Athanatos
Nigerian Air Force has confirmed it is conducting armed reconnaissance sorties over Gambia.

It seems likely that the regular army will stand down. What's not clear is what the 2,500 national guard, who are loyal to Jammeh, will do.

Edit: Senegalese have officially entered Gambia, per army spokesmen.

ass struggle fucked around with this message at 19:35 on Jan 19, 2017

ass struggle
Dec 25, 2012

by Athanatos
ECOWAS has launched operation "Restore Democracy" with limited strikes against Gambian military equipment.


https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/822194364638171139

ass struggle fucked around with this message at 22:34 on Jan 19, 2017

Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

Thank god the Gambia's neighbors are self-sufficient. If Jammeh is deposed I hope this sets a precedent against dictators in West Africa.

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
"Another ultimatum for The Gambia's long-term leader to leave office or be forced out by UN-backed troops expired at 16:00 GMT."
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-38686144

Jammeh asked to postpone to 16:00 and then failed to vacate the property. Let's see if foreign intervention can do something good for once, thankfully it won't be our fault if/when it blows up this time.

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless
https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/822518406968737792

This is just the initial one sentence report. Should be updated with details in a little bit.

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die
Nap Ghost
Well, that's good.

I suppose he must have been promised asylum somewhere and freedom from prosecution?

KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD
Jul 7, 2012

He's in Guinea now, picking an asylum country eventually.

I honestly never imagined this would end as peacefully as it did. A whole lot of bloodshed was prevented today. Good times

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD posted:

He's in Guinea now, picking an asylum country eventually.

I honestly never imagined this would end as peacefully as it did. A whole lot of bloodshed was prevented today. Good times

:3:

Even in Africa, sometimes nice things happen.

Good job Mauretania and friends?

KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD
Jul 7, 2012

I don't know poo poo about African history, is there precedent for this sort of thing?

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD posted:

I don't know poo poo about African history, is there precedent for this sort of thing?

ECOWAS intervened militarily in Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea-Bissau Civil War via ECOMOG in the late nineties. They've been pretty bullish on applying pressure on coups in recent years to force reversals to democratic systems (Burkina Faso, Mali, Guinea-Bissau).

Last time they threatened someone with military force I think it was back during the Ivorian presidential crisis in 2010-2011 when Laurent Gbagbo refused to resign after losing an election. That was a bit more drawn out though because of the recent memories of the first civil war and concerns the fighting would spiral out of control, that was ultimately resolved without direct ECOWAS intervention (cause the French decided to take out Gbagbo)

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
So the reason Jammeh had to postpone the deadline twice was probably to get enough time to stuff his luggage with as much state money as possible: probably over $10 million. Still, a small price to pay to get rid of him peacefully.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-38714007

Afriscipio
Jun 3, 2013

$10 million is loose change. I'm sure a bit of digging will reveal the real amount.

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

Zuma has fired Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan apparently against the wishes of his deputy president, coalition partners, and ANC leadership. I wonder if anyone will actually do anything about it.

Lead out in cuffs
Sep 18, 2012

"That's right. We've evolved."

"I can see that. Cool mutations."




Badger of Basra posted:

Zuma has fired Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan apparently against the wishes of his deputy president, coalition partners, and ANC leadership. I wonder if anyone will actually do anything about it.

I dunno -- I feel like there's still a lot of sentiment towards toeing the party line within the ANC, coupled with Zuma having a ton of dirt on a lot of people. But maybe.

On the other hand, there are only another two years left of Zuma's term, so the feeling may just be to ride it out. The big question now is of succession, and whether the party can be wrested back from Zuma loyalists.


*sigh* bracing for a Facebook shitstorm among my privileged white South African friends and relatives (although I've started doing a pretty good job of filtering that down).

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Badger of Basra posted:

Zuma has fired Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan apparently against the wishes of his deputy president, coalition partners, and ANC leadership. I wonder if anyone will actually do anything about it.

The SACP have made a rare break and have publicly called for Zuma to resign, though they've stopped short from asking their members who hold cabinet positions from stepping down (which they threatened to do when talk of Gordhan being canned started circulating a while back). They also pushed ahead with the memorial to Ahmed Kathrada (one of those convicted at Rivonia who was a former senior member of the SACP) after the government cancelled the state memorial, seemingly to head off a platform for anti-Zuma voices in light of recent events, and give a platform to lots of people (including Gordhan himself) to lay into Zuma:

News24 posted:

Axed finance minister, Pravin Gordhan, proved himself the darling of the Ahmed Kathrada memorial in Johannesburg on Saturday, with his self-deprecating humour as well as scathing remarks about the current state of the government and a call to fight corruption within the ANC.

"I am unashamedly encouraging mass mobilisation," said Gordhan, who this week was axed during a cabinet reshuffle, along with his deputy Mcebisi Jonas and other ministers.

Yet, "this ANC is still our ANC," declared Gordhan, to the cheers of an overflowing crowd at the city hall.

"We need to get this organisation of ours into a shape that shows we are truly a people’s movement."

Gordhan said the fact that various members of the ANC’s top leadership had indicated that they had played no part in the decisions around this week’s cabinet reshuffle, indicated a key problem.

"When these people say we don’t know where these decisions are made, then there is something to worry about.”

Still unlikely the Communists will back the DA's no-confidence motion imo though, I mean I'm open to being surprised but breaking that far from the ANC line seems pretty far out. For the record the opposition needs to convince 50 ANC mps to vote with the no-confidence motion, for it to pass it requires a majority of members of the national assembly, not just a majority when voting, so simple abstentions wouldn't be enough for it to be successful. Maybe tactical abstention to allow the motion to win a majority of those voting but keep it beneath the majority of members could be used as a pressure tactic to convince Zuma to jump before he's pushed?

The ANC top six seem to be completely divided on the issue - Cyril Ramaphosa, Gwede Mantashe and Zweli Mkhize have all spoken out against the sacking (Mkhize possibly the most robustly) which leaves Baleka Mbete and Jessie Duarte backing Zuma. This is some of the most open top table division and Zuma will need to quickly prove that he remains "in charge" of the ANC to hold off further divisions, if it looks increasingly like the Ramaphoa-Mkhize slate thats been floated to replace Zuma are in a position to actually win at the upcoming conference there may be moves from MPs to get on their good side early.

Also worth pointing out the apparent reason Gordhan was sacked was due to an "intelligence report" claiming he was meeting bankers as part of something called "Operation Check Mate" to unseat Zuma...

kustomkarkommando fucked around with this message at 18:54 on Apr 1, 2017

BlueBull
Jan 21, 2007
As I understand, Ramaphosa & Mantashe haven't spoken out about the sacking of Gordhan etc as such, they've spoken out about not having been consulted (as NEC members) about the reshuffle as a whole.

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

Has Helen Zille always been a crazy person?

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Badger of Basra posted:

Has Helen Zille always been a crazy person?

On twitter? Oh yes.


And now COSATU have called for Zuma to resign

https://mobile.twitter.com/nkosi_milton/status/849195052794556416

Could it be... Could Zuma fall?

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Senor P.
Mar 27, 2006
I MUST TELL YOU HOW PEOPLE CARE ABOUT STUFF I DONT AND BE A COMPLETE CUNT ABOUT IT

kustomkarkommando posted:

Could it be... Could Zuma fall?

I'm not going to hold my breath. There was Gupta-gate and he survived that.

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