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Karpaw posted:Hahaha, great! A divided Alliansen try to polish their brands at each other's expense but it just plays into SD:s hands by solidifying their image as the only real opposition party everyone else is positioning themselves in relation to. That is pretty much what I am afraid of. As for so called Sverigevänner, they are if anything completely unrealistic and paranoid. The FB thread about SDs polls is a good example of this. Especially the treatment of polls where some are seen as bad and some good depending on SDs number in them. Some of it is true, but that has more to do with the polling methods. Traditional phone polling is severely underestimating SDs number as seen in the last 2 elections, whereas online polls are severely overestimating SD.
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Jan 19, 2017 19:19
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So I saw Jimmie Åkesson speaking on SVT this morning, and I guess is Alliansen set to crumble over M thinking negotiating with SD is a good thing? Is this a power grab by M and thinking they can keep SD in check in a new government, even if SD is in the ruling coalition?
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Jan 25, 2017 08:53
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Dirk Pitt posted:So I saw Jimmie Ã…kesson speaking on SVT this morning, and I guess is Alliansen set to crumble over M thinking negotiating with SD is a good thing? Is this a power grab by M and thinking they can keep SD in check in a new government, even if SD is in the ruling coalition? It is more the realization by M that SD is not going away meaning we now have a 3 faction system where no faction have majority. So if you want to take political decisions with a majority vote either S&M needs to collaborate or work with SD. Both sides have won votes the last year by having SD vote on their proposal. Democracy in action.
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Jan 25, 2017 09:21
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Remember when KD scrapped DÖ a year ago? M acted as if they were indifferent and refused to answer a straight question about whether they would work with SD or not to topple the government. This is just M taking its turn the longplay to form a government, either with KD and SD in a takeover or by poaching SD:s votes in 2018.
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Jan 25, 2017 10:10
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If anybody thought that the traditional right wouldn't ally with the fash at some point, you've clearly not been paying attention.
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Jan 25, 2017 10:41
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Cerebral Bore posted:If anybody thought that the traditional right wouldn't ally with the fash at some point, you've clearly not been paying attention. Reminder that S have not really complained about SD voting for some of their proposals, especially that time when S+SD+V+MP took out one thing from the Alliansen budget, which was a direct cause for Alliansen getting through their budget and causing the reelection process and DÖ. SD does after all consist of a bunch of former SD voters as well. Or to put it like this, S is currently hovering around 26-28% and M at 20-22% and I can remember S being a 35% party, while the traditional figure for M is 20-24%.
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Jan 25, 2017 11:12
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Cardiac posted:Reminder that S have not really complained about SD voting for some of their proposals, especially that time when S+SD+V+MP took out one thing from the Alliansen budget, which was a direct cause for Alliansen getting through their budget and causing the reelection process and DÖ. 
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Jan 25, 2017 11:31
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Link, please.
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Jan 25, 2017 11:37
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Cardiac posted:Link, please. http://www.svt.se/nyheter/val2014/var-tredje-ny-sd-valjare-kommer-fran-m The survey was done by Svt themselves at the polling stations by asking voters which party they voted for 2014 and 2010. Edit: More details are in the various links on the site where you can see polling procedure, coverage and biases present in the data. Zudgemud fucked around with this message at 12:04 on Jan 25, 2017 |
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Jan 25, 2017 11:46
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Quote=/edit...
Zudgemud fucked around with this message at 12:07 on Jan 25, 2017 |
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Jan 25, 2017 12:02
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Zudgemud posted:http://www.svt.se/nyheter/val2014/var-tredje-ny-sd-valjare-kommer-fran-m 2017 says hello. Didn't that one show like a disrepancy of like 3-4% for SD ie a major Bradley-effect? It used to be the most accurate predition of the result but then SD happened. Still don't explain why S is a 26-28% party instead of a 35% party like under Persson.
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Jan 25, 2017 12:12
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Well you could make the argument that S lost their voters to M/alliansen because of the rebranding of M and the general drift to the center of all sides. These voters could then have gone to SD. But there is no data that supports this at the moment, even though it is a perfectly valid theory. Edit: The self reported biases for those that does not want to find it themselves. quote:Vilka som väljer att vara med och svara på blanketten påverkas av sociala bakgrundsförhållanden. Det har visat sig att det finns en systematisk underrepresentation av äldre väljare och arbetare, och en systematisk överrepresentation av yngre väljare och tjänstemän. Zudgemud fucked around with this message at 12:54 on Jan 25, 2017 |
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Jan 25, 2017 12:43
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 http://www.scb.se/Statistik/_Publikationer/ME0106_2014A01F_BR_ME09BR1601.pdf Cardiac posted:2017 says hello. Voters are increasingly undecided. S has lost votes to FP, C, MP, M and V in the past.
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Jan 25, 2017 13:13
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S is the bigger party and will lose more votes in any scenario, but proportionally they lose way less than any of the right-wing bloc parties.
Svartvit fucked around with this message at 13:19 on Jan 25, 2017 |
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Jan 25, 2017 13:17
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Jan 26, 2017 10:37
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You should notice that there are currently two winners in both media and public support after M started to openly flirt with SD: C and S. KD is playing a coy "will they-won't they" game where they kind of want to join the new brown-blue block and kind of don't want to, and they remain as unpopular as ever. C have clearly said no, L as well, and S is looking better in people's eyes compared to M, at least in short term. There's no way to ignore that AKB was desperate in the face of falling popularity, both internally and externally, and that it lead to this mess. And I think the shoddy way she has handled it will make it worse, at least in the short term. So if anything, I'd say that signs are clearer than ever that a L-C-S middle block starts to make sense. I don't personally like it, but I'd rather have a center-right L-C-S block than a full on SD-M-KD block in charge. lilljonas fucked around with this message at 12:40 on Jan 26, 2017 |
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Jan 26, 2017 12:38
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The problem is that any government containing C is going to be garbage middle-road nonsense.
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Jan 26, 2017 12:47
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MiddleOne posted:The problem is that any government
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Jan 26, 2017 12:50
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Garbage middle road nonsense sounds like a great way forward for large parts of both C, L and S. Just saying.
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Jan 26, 2017 14:29
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Yeah which is why everything is gonna get hosed to hell and back.
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Jan 26, 2017 14:31
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Aren't C that bunch who went full lolbertarian a while ago?
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Jan 26, 2017 14:33
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Cerebral Bore posted:Aren't C that bunch who went full lolbertarian a while ago? I thought FP were the libertarian types. I always confuse M and C as well.
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Jan 26, 2017 14:42
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lilljonas posted:You should notice that there are currently two winners in both media and public support after M started to openly flirt with SD: C and S. KD is playing a coy "will they-won't they" game where they kind of want to join the new brown-blue block and kind of don't want to, and they remain as unpopular as ever. C have clearly said no, L as well, and S is looking better in people's eyes compared to M, at least in short term. There's no way to ignore that AKB was desperate in the face of falling popularity, both internally and externally, and that it lead to this mess. And I think the shoddy way she has handled it will make it worse, at least in the short term. Are you talking about the things last week? Cause the latest poll (Sentio) covered until the 18/1 and it was the 19th when AKB did her statement? As for falling popularity, M is still at 22% in poll of polls which is hardly a dramatic decrease. That M fails to gain anything by S blunders is another thing though. The reaction to last week will be seen in the polls for next month. As for your S+L+C block (C is more right-wing/liberal than M in economics nowadays), that would constitute 41% ie not a majority and basically the same situation as today. So you end up with a coalition that needs support from Mp+V, SD or M to have an actual majority. Nevermind the fact that L and C will lose massive support among their voters due to the collaboration with S. Historically we can easily see that working with S is bad for a middle party. L/Fp, C and Mp can all testify to this. Next term is probably going to be a weak coalition that relies on jumping majorities to get their politics through. M seems like the likely party for this, since they are more or less able to work with S, SD, L+C+Kd. Neeksy posted:I thought FP were the libertarian types. I always confuse M and C as well. Fp is a bit of everything, both conservative and libertarians, which is hardly surprising since it is the major academic party. M used to be libertarian, but are going back to conservative now. C used to be conservative, but are now more libertarian. Confused? I am. The tradition within the middle-right have always been different parties stealing from one another. See Westerberg, Svensson, Lejonborg, Olofsson and Lööf now.
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Jan 26, 2017 15:12
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L (formerly FP) tend to lean more towards standard social-liberalism and centre-right politics. C has a loud fringe contingent of inner city libertarian morons ("Stureplanscentern" as they were referred to a few years ago) but try to balance that with the more traditional agrarian wing in the country side who dislike taxes, like small businesses etc. but are less keen on free drug use and (presumably) the end of the welfare state/rise of the randian train-powered economy of tomorrow. M used to be the mainstream conservative choice, then swung left to try to pick up S-voting middle class people and are now seeming to swing back right in order to pick up SD voters instead.
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Jan 26, 2017 15:14
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The funniest thing is that C was traditionally the rural party, but has recently been the party putting forward the best ideas for expanding Stockholm. (Expanding the city core and building proper enclosed blocks with mixed commercial/residential instead of farting out a few residential monoliths here or there)
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Jan 26, 2017 15:19
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Beeswax posted:L (formerly FP) tend to lean more towards standard social-liberalism and centre-right politics. C has a loud fringe contingent of inner city libertarian morons ("Stureplanscentern" as they were referred to a few years ago) but try to balance that with the more traditional agrarian wing in the country side who dislike taxes, like small businesses etc. but are less keen on free drug use and (presumably) the end of the welfare state/rise of the randian train-powered economy of tomorrow. I completely forgot about them changing to L and getting the dildo-logo.
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Jan 26, 2017 15:22
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Basically current percentages in the Riksdag is irrelevant and this is the election season starting. All parties have their eyes on getting the best positions for the election in 2018, there's no way AKB can force a snap election with her current blustering and she knows it.
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Jan 26, 2017 19:36
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Neeksy posted:I completely forgot about them changing to L and getting the dildo-logo. This is my favourite thing about what little I know of Swedish politics. I mean look at this guy. This is a human being who presumably wishes his political ideas to be taken seriously, standing in front of a wall of dicks. 
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Jan 26, 2017 21:48
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Collateral Damage posted:The funniest thing is that C was traditionally the rural party, but has recently been the party putting forward the best ideas for expanding Stockholm. (Expanding the city core and building proper enclosed blocks with mixed commercial/residential instead of farting out a few residential monoliths here or there) Less good C idea for growing Stockholm: letting the free market determine rent levels
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Jan 26, 2017 21:52
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Beeswax posted:Less good C idea for growing Stockholm: letting the free market determine rent levels If it can efficiently maximize the occupancy of poop in adult diapers at nursing homes, I'm sure the free market can work the same magic on the utterly insane housing market in stlm.
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Jan 27, 2017 05:19
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Well, it can, by expanding the bubble until it violently and painfully bursts. It works in cycles you see.
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Jan 27, 2017 06:52
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Neeksy posted:If it can efficiently maximize the occupancy of poop in adult diapers at nursing homes, I'm sure the free market can work the same magic on the utterly insane housing market in stlm. Quit trusting DN.
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Jan 27, 2017 07:18
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http://www.expressen.se/debatt/hardare-straff-ar-ingen-losning/ The fact that this is given space in the public room makes me sick. What is it with this false dichotomy bullshit? Meeting out harsh justice to god drat video taping gang rapists and working against norms that put women at risk are not mutually exclusive.
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Jan 27, 2017 10:10
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so that means I can be a cheapskate and post about posting instead of having some wit or spending any more on comedy avs for people. Which I'm also incapable of. Comedy.
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Retarded Goatee posted:http://www.expressen.se/debatt/hardare-straff-ar-ingen-losning/ But you see the rapists are from foreign descent and therefore their actions is caused by our societal and racist norms and therefore we should work to make better norms so this stops happening. Blaming the perpetrators for their actions is counter-productive to this cause because .......
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Jan 27, 2017 10:19
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I'm convinced that alienation and the feeling of not being a stakeholder in the system is likely to turn ordinary people into criminals, and that we should work further with coming up with solutions to be inclusive. I'm however also a proponent of the radical notion of locking up rapists for long periods of time. This probably makes me both a fascist and a tumblr-leftist depending on who you ask.
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Jan 27, 2017 10:48
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Retarded Goatee posted:http://www.expressen.se/debatt/hardare-straff-ar-ingen-losning/ People aren't tired of this commie moral relativism yet? gently caress me
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Jan 27, 2017 10:50
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Wild Horses posted:People aren't tired of this commie moral relativism yet? gently caress me Don't lump the communists with the "left" the fields identity politics, they hate it as much as you:
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Jan 27, 2017 11:05
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On another note, why are S and V not making a huge loving noise about the enormous presumed corruption related to NKS and/or Pia Kinhult / ESS? This kind of brazen corruption concerning many billions of tax payer dollars seems like a much better talking point than all this other bullshit that is covered currently.
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Jan 27, 2017 11:08
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Despite often being painted as some sort of omnipotent manipulative cabal which controlled Sweden for most of the 20th century, Socialdemokraterna are complete bumbling idiots in most regards when it comes to playing the media and seizing any sort of narrative initiative.
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Jan 27, 2017 11:17
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Retarded Goatee posted:http://www.expressen.se/debatt/hardare-straff-ar-ingen-losning/ Did you even read beyond the headline? Because the point that this article is making is that harsher punishment doesn't serve as a deterrent if the criminals don't think that they're committing a crime, which is a perfectly reasonable conclusion.
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Jan 27, 2017 11:20
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