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AKA Pseudonym posted:So now that Trump has revealed himself to be a true blue protectionist why is the stock market still going up? stock markets operate in a different reality 
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Jan 25, 2017 00:39
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If the markets crash and we have another recession/depression happening, what happens if Trump orders the GOP to pull a China and close markets/make it illegal to sell/deny reality etc?
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Jan 25, 2017 00:55
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Raenir Salazar posted:If the markets crash and we have another recession/depression happening, what happens if Trump orders the GOP to pull a China and close markets/make it illegal to sell/deny reality etc? That would be total chaos. People and investors would panic.
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Jan 25, 2017 01:19
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You guys need to read up on your market history. The SEC temporarily banned short sale of financial stocks in '08 so it's not unprecedented in the US.
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Jan 25, 2017 01:28
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Jan 25, 2017 02:31
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How's the auto industry doing?
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Jan 25, 2017 03:00
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AKA Pseudonym posted:So now that Trump has revealed himself to be a true blue protectionist why is the stock market still going up? Because investors are idiots and the stock market's ups and downs rarely have any basis in objective reality.
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Jan 25, 2017 03:53
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Charles Mansion posted:I'm curious to hear why you think this is the case. Even though tech is growing the amount of money being thrown at it is absolutely absurd. People are piling massive amounts of cash on basically any startup hoping that they'll get on the ground floor of the next Google or Microsoft. Tech will do fine but tech investment is bubbling. Everybody needs technology these days so it won't be a disaster like a massive housing bubble but the financial sector is inflating everything it can get its blood funnel in right now in a desperate attempt to have exponential growth forever. They're failing and tech is pretty much the only thing that potentially has insane returns. Instead we get things like Theranos and Uber.
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Jan 25, 2017 03:57
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ToxicSlurpee posted:Even though tech is growing the amount of money being thrown at it is absolutely absurd. People are piling massive amounts of cash on basically any startup hoping that they'll get on the ground floor of the next Google or Microsoft. Tech will do fine but tech investment is bubbling. Welp, as long as I can still hold a job as a programmer... 
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Jan 25, 2017 04:02
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Pollyanna posted:Welp, as long as I can still hold a job as a programmer... You'll be fine until computers can program themselves. There's a massive shortage of programmers worldwide and even if the tech sector has an exploding bubble...well fact is every company will still need a website, the data will still need scienced, and somebody will still have to code the next Call of Halostrike Warfare 37: Now Even More Modern. When computers can program themselves either we're all hosed or we get a Star Trek utopia.
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Jan 25, 2017 04:05
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ToxicSlurpee posted:Even though tech is growing the amount of money being thrown at it is absolutely absurd. People are piling massive amounts of cash on basically any startup hoping that they'll get on the ground floor of the next Google or Microsoft. Tech will do fine but tech investment is bubbling. Global VC investment in 2016 was about a quarter lower than in 2015, fwiw. I can't find a good tracking for "tech" specifically, which isn't surprising given the fluid definition. What do you have in mind?
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Jan 25, 2017 04:06
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ToxicSlurpee posted:You'll be fine until computers can program themselves. There's a massive shortage of programmers worldwide and even if the tech sector has an exploding bubble...well fact is every company will still need a website, the data will still need scienced, and somebody will still have to code the next Call of Halostrike Warfare 37: Now Even More Modern. So, hosed, got it. I look forward to our glorious neo-feudal techno-aristocracy future. Well, metaphorically obviously, I will be long since killed in the interim purges.
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Jan 25, 2017 04:08
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ToxicSlurpee posted:You'll be fine until computers can program themselves. There's a massive shortage of programmers worldwide and even if the tech sector has an exploding bubble...well fact is every company will still need a website, the data will still need scienced, and somebody will still have to code the next Call of Halostrike Warfare 37: Now Even More Modern. You seen the number of no-nothing code-illiterate imbeciles being pumped out by "bootcamps"? Specialized programming ain't dying, but the industry has taken the attitude that if it can't import slaves from India to drive down wages - it'll just manufacture an artificial glut of developers itself to achieve the same.
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Jan 25, 2017 04:34
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ToxicSlurpee posted:You'll be fine until computers can program themselves. There's a massive shortage of programmers worldwide and even if the tech sector has an exploding bubble...well fact is every company will still need a website, the data will still need scienced, and somebody will still have to code the next Call of Halostrike Warfare 37: Now Even More Modern. True. By the time we get to that last part, we're probably turbofucked, and it'll be a ways off anyway. Rime posted:You seen the number of no-nothing code-illiterate imbeciles being pumped out by "bootcamps"? Specialized programming ain't dying, but the industry has taken the attitude that if it can't import slaves from India to drive down wages - it'll just manufacture an artificial glut of developers itself to achieve the same. This too, though. I would actually argue that there's a surplus of developers out there, and the jobs that are available boil down to Rails monkey stuff as opposed to actually interesting stuff like systems programming and architecture. And those monkey jobs aren't going to last as companies go under.
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Jan 25, 2017 14:07
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ToxicSlurpee posted:a desperate attempt to have exponential growth forever. The fact that a surplus of labor is such a huge problem is incredibly paradoxically ironic i have trouble finding words for it.
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Jan 25, 2017 15:09
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Rime posted:You seen the number of no-nothing code-illiterate imbeciles being pumped out by "bootcamps"? Specialized programming ain't dying, but the industry has taken the attitude that if it can't import slaves from India to drive down wages - it'll just manufacture an artificial glut of developers itself to achieve the same. The main thing that's doing is making it harder to find a programming job if you're a newbie with no experience. Actual universities are making their CS degrees easier to crank out more people with CS degrees. Code illiterate people who went to a lovely boot camp aren't developers; they're people who got scammed. That isn't a problem of the industry but a problem of America being lovely. People know that being a programmer is a pretty sweet gig so they'll do anything to get a programming job. Boot camps know that so they're cropping up everywhere to collect money and make promises. Once you're proven it's balls easy to find new jobs. If you're experienced and good then recruiters won't leave you the gently caress alone. Boot camp graduates are not competing with that pool of talent and sane tech companies know that. There are a bajillion stories of companies deciding to do their tech stuff more cheaply by hiring the cheapest programmers they can find only to end up paying more in the long run. Idiots are still doing that but other companies are realizing just how valuable good tech talent is.
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Jan 25, 2017 15:31
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ToxicSlurpee posted:If you're experienced and good then recruiters won't leave you the gently caress alone. True. I get messages on LinkedIn all the time begging me to jump ship to the latest startup or company looking to poach talent. If you have any work history, you'll be in high demand. Now, getting that work history is a task in itself...
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Jan 25, 2017 16:09
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/26/trump-calls-for-20-tax-on-mexican-imports-to-pay-for-border-wall The trade war with Mexico is a go.
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Jan 27, 2017 01:08
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OhFunny posted:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/26/trump-calls-for-20-tax-on-mexican-imports-to-pay-for-border-wall Pollyanna posted:This too, though. I would actually argue that there's a surplus of developers out there, and the jobs that are available boil down to Rails monkey stuff as opposed to actually interesting stuff like systems programming and architecture. And those monkey jobs aren't going to last as companies go under. cheese fucked around with this message at 02:17 on Jan 27, 2017 |
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Jan 27, 2017 02:06
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edit: double post
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Jan 27, 2017 02:15
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cheese posted:It's going to be hilarious when Mexico takes down Trump. My MAGA hat wearing Republican uncle, one of those mythical "small business owners", is probably making GBS threads himself now since he does a lot of business that involves both Mexico and Mexican immigrant labor. He spent all election saying the wall thing was just a stunt and that Trump wouldn't really destroy American business by doing something so stupid as messing with important border trade. That's the thing that truly, genuinely baffles me about Trump voters. It's like..you voted him in. Based on what he said. Now he's being exactly what he promised. And they're...surprised? Like really guys, you made your bed now you get to lie in it. The other side of it is that when you're on good terms with the neighbors you don't actively do things to piss them off. Mexico and the U.S. have been on pretty good terms for quite a long time. Why throw that away? I know the obvious answer is "racism" and that's basically why so many Trump voters are cheering it but really...all they harp on is the illegals but there are a poo poo load of Mexicans legally here that would actually quite like you to not gently caress up the less legally here Mexicans as well as, you know, Mexico itself. I think that's one thing that people forget and why this whole gently caress SANCTUARY CITIES!!! thing is stupid. This hate piled on Mexicans is going to lose any good will Mexican communities in America have toward the nation and the government. That isn't good. There are over 11,000,000 legal U.S. citizens that are Mexican. We should probably endeavor to stay on good terms with them. Given that the GOP has also been actively trying to court the Hispanic vote they're probably not happy with Trump loving it up for them.
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Jan 27, 2017 03:18
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ToxicSlurpee posted:That's the thing that truly, genuinely baffles me about Trump voters. It's like..you voted him in. Based on what he said. Eh I know gay guys who voted for Trump who insisted he would never ever appoint an anti-gay supreme court justice because he hires gay people and has gay friends. All those times Trump said he'd do exactly that? Just lies to pander to Republicans, but in office he'll betray them and not me. This kind of thing has ceased to surprise me.
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Jan 27, 2017 03:35
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VitalSigns posted:Eh I know gay guys who voted for Trump who insisted he would never ever appoint an anti-gay supreme court justice because he hires gay people and has gay friends. All those times Trump said he'd do exactly that? Just lies to pander to Republicans, but in office he'll betray them and not me. Yup. I think a lot of it is that they're starting to realize the dreadful things their party stands for and are trying to justify electing people that act like cartoon villains. A hell of a lot of Republicans are squirming right now because what they've been voting for is now nakedly out in the open and, well poo poo, it turns out that we actually were electing a bunch of xenophobic assholes hostile to anything that isn't a rich white guy.
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Jan 27, 2017 03:40
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It's been pointed out elsewhere that the United States imports a lot of food from Mexico. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-26/a-mexican-border-tax-would-hit-avocados-chili-peppers-beer
Thinking about it Trump could impose a 15% tariff via executive order by declaring an emergency any flimsy exucse (Mexico's trade with us is a disaster!) and spike food prices.
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Jan 27, 2017 03:57
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ToxicSlurpee posted:Yup. I think a lot of it is that they're starting to realize the dreadful things their party stands for and are trying to justify electing people that act like cartoon villains. Yeah I expect to see a lot of "moderates" start separating themselves from Trump when his plans really start failing and his stupid mistakes really make the party look like a joke. A Republican I knew had the good foresight to call Trump a "Democrat in disguise" during the election. That doesn't mean they wouldn't vote for him again but I expect they don't like their shittiness so out in the open without getting the benefit of the doubt that they are the party of economic geniuses and certainly not racist or sexist no siree.
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Jan 27, 2017 04:03
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VitalSigns posted:Eh I know gay guys who voted for Trump who insisted he would never ever appoint an anti-gay supreme court justice because he hires gay people and has gay friends. All those times Trump said he'd do exactly that? Just lies to pander to Republicans, but in office he'll betray them and not me. Yeah you could see it from the word go throughout the campaign. Hell TheSarus was making up poo poo Trump promised that he would do but the other stuff was pandering (he's going to legalize weed you guys really)
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Jan 27, 2017 05:26
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SHY NUDIST GRRL posted:Yeah you could see it from the word go throughout the campaign. Hell TheSarus was making up poo poo Trump promised that he would do but the other stuff was pandering (he's going to legalize weed you guys really) to be fair, people did this with obama too. people thought he was this super leftist even though in the guy's own book he talks about the importance of building consensus and working with political opponents to craft policy that may not be exactly what he wants but will still get the job done. and then when obamacare passed the far left started calling the guy a traitor for doing exactly what he promised. you can never please a fundamentalist because you can never match their absurd projections of what you actually are.
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Jan 27, 2017 15:20
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axeil posted:to be fair, people did this with obama too. people thought he was this super leftist even though in the guy's own book he talks about the importance of building consensus and working with political opponents to craft policy that may not be exactly what he wants but will still get the job done. Dude, his campaign slogan was "Hope and change" and he'd supported single payer in the past. It was hardly unreasonable to think he'd be at least a little more progressive than he turned out to be. Plus his campaign did very little to correct this misconception, which was kind of a dick move.
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Jan 27, 2017 18:10
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VitalSigns posted:Eh I know gay guys who voted for Trump who insisted he would never ever appoint an anti-gay supreme court justice because he hires gay people and has gay friends. All those times Trump said he'd do exactly that? Just lies to pander to Republicans, but in office he'll betray them and not me. I know Democrats who thought Obama would never try to slash Social Security because he was a hope-and-change progressive. All those times he clearly indicated that he was a milquetoast neoliberal? Just lies to pander to bipartisanship, but in office he'll betray them and not me. This kind of thing has ceased to surprise me, too.
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Jan 27, 2017 18:30
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Ultimately, the economic impact of the wall and a trade war is worth it for the GOP. It keeps the base content, gives them someone/something to take their brewing economic rage out against and gives them further excuses for why their lives keep getting worse. When the alternative is your base finally figuring out that it was you all along that killed the American Dream, you'll build the wall.
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Jan 27, 2017 19:54
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Proud Christian Mom posted:Ultimately, the economic impact of the wall and a trade war is worth it for the GOP. It keeps the base content, gives them someone/something to take their brewing economic rage out against and gives them further excuses for why their lives keep getting worse. When the alternative is your base finally figuring out that it was you all along that killed the American Dream, you'll build the wall. If this Wall happens and its an actual boondoggle (it will be a boondoggle), and an insane tariff affects the day to day life of Americans, Trump is going to get demolished in 2020 by whatever empty pantsuit the Democrats run. Book(er) it.
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Jan 28, 2017 01:19
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cheese posted:Couldn't disagree more. Election analysis basically confirms the hypothesis that Republicans always turn out reliably and Democrats are emotional voters who can't be bothered to show up if they are not moved emotionally one way or another. It's worth considering that the Republicans *were* moved emotionally by Trump. His bigoted politics were a wet dream for them.
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Jan 28, 2017 01:28
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Maybe the Far Right, but I definitely know Republicans who are making GBS threads themselves right now. That's what happens when you treat Politics as Football teams.
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Jan 28, 2017 01:40
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cheese posted:If this Wall happens and its an actual boondoggle (it will be a boondoggle), and an insane tariff affects the day to day life of Americans, Trump is going to get demolished in 2020 by whatever empty pantsuit the Democrats run. Book(er) it. On the flip side if the wall causes few problems other than being a money sink (not a huge issue considering how much we spend on bombs and such) and the trade war causes only negligible price increases while forcing even a few symbolic company's to relocate locally it could become the feather in his cap that rockets him into a second term. readingatwork fucked around with this message at 01:49 on Jan 28, 2017 |
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Jan 28, 2017 01:43
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cheese posted:Couldn't disagree more. Election analysis basically confirms the hypothesis that Republicans always turn out reliably and Democrats are emotional voters who can't be bothered to show up if they are not moved emotionally one way or another. Obama crushed McCain in 2008 and Romney in 2012, and Trump beat Hillary in 2016, not because the Republican base was fired up (hint: they were fired up for all 3) but because different amounts of Democratic leaning voters bothered to show up to the polls. Here's the thing, though; America has stated pretty strongly that we didn't want Trump. He lost the popular vote by multiple millions and entered the presidency with a record-breakingly low entry approval rating. The massive, nationwide protests that have been happening constantly ever since he won are just another indicator. There are only two ways he wins again; either he pulls his head out of his rear end and actually is a good president (lol no) or the GOP fucks up voting so badly democracy is effectively over. It's also starting to come out that he's basically just a puppet for his political pals, who are all pushing god awful things, so if they don't go full Hitler they're going to have trouble keeping power. Less insane Republicans are absolutely horrified at what is going on.
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Jan 28, 2017 01:44
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Xand_Man posted:Maybe the Far Right, but I definitely know Republicans who are making GBS threads themselves right now. That's what happens when you treat Politics as Football teams. The 4th Quarter GDP/end of year GDP numbers were not great apparently. With Trump doing god knows what and all of the uncertainty over healthcare going away I figure we are in for a recession sooner rather than later.
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Jan 28, 2017 01:58
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BarbarianElephant posted:It's worth considering that the Republicans *were* moved emotionally by Trump. His bigoted politics were a wet dream for them. readingatwork posted:On the flip side if the wall causes few problems other than being a money sink (not a huge issue considering how much we spend on bombs and such) and the trade war causes only negligible price increases while forcing even a few symbolic company's to relocate locally it could become the feather in his cap that rockets him into a second term.
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Jan 28, 2017 02:21
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call to action posted:I know Democrats who thought Obama would never try to slash Social Security because he was a hope-and-change progressive. All those times he clearly indicated that he was a milquetoast neoliberal? Just lies to pander to bipartisanship, but in office he'll betray them and not me. Eh this isn't really a good comparison at least for general election voters because the opposition party's candidates were objectively worse on this issue.
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Jan 28, 2017 02:50
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readingatwork posted:Dude, his campaign slogan was "Hope and change" and he'd supported single payer in the past. It was hardly unreasonable to think he'd be at least a little more progressive than he turned out to be. Plus his campaign did very little to correct this misconception, which was kind of a dick move. "In other statements, Obama has spoken favorably of single-payer in concept, but always adding qualifiers."Obama's advertising and marketing was quite brilliant that it won awards. With a campaign like that at the time of the recession, it's easy to project Obama as some sort of leftist savior. The wake up call came quickly when Obama started to name his cabinet picks.
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Jan 28, 2017 06:02
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CheeseSpawn posted:it's easy to project Obama as some sort of leftist savior. The wake up call came quickly when Obama started to name his cabinet picks. No one who bothered to read his book should have been surprised. Paraphrased cause I gave my copy away: "I am going to disappoint them" and "I would have been a Republican in the eighties" Are things that are in there. He told everybody what he was. Anybody upset about him being exactly what he said he was is a bit daft.
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Jan 28, 2017 17:46
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