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jBrereton posted:What the gently caress are you on about. It's late so I'm just going to suggest reading stuff in the thread? It seems like we basically agree that the only way to actually stamp out racist-right sentiment is a counternarrative about immigration, and we also agree Corbyn's loving up the job at present. I mean, scroll up a bit for why I think this is a problem for the argument of "anyone but corbyn". EDIT: In 1926, Mussolini was the subject of a failed assassination attempt, which would've saved the allies a lot of trouble a few years later.
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Feb 4, 2017 02:43
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JFairfax posted:immigration has not soared. It isn't necessarily a bad thing, but it is true.
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Feb 4, 2017 02:46
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spectralent posted:It's late so I'm just going to suggest reading stuff in the thread? It seems like we basically agree that the only way to actually stamp out racist-right sentiment is a counternarrative about immigration, and we also agree Corbyn's loving up the job at present. I mean, scroll up a bit for why I think this is a problem for the argument of "anyone but corbyn".
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Feb 4, 2017 02:48
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baka kaba posted:Your last series of posts where you claim the polls show that "the labour voters that stayed labour voters sure as gently caress aren't going to stick around for pro Brexit Labour" and I said the polls don't show any evidence of this happening, and then you said "they have yet to change their mind" Okay, let's actually look into this. 3 YouGov polls: April 2016 (final poll before referendum) https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ieuepajv7k/TimesResults_160424_EURef_W.pdf Remain: Con 24% Lab 52% Leave: Con 33% Lab 15% July 2016 (just after May became PM) http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/7r7q7dltth/InternalResults_160720_VI.pdf Remain: Con 28% Lab 41% Leave: Con 52% Lab 16% Jan 2017 (newest) http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/3hy4qn55vq/TimesResults_170131_VI_Trackers_W.pdf Remain: Con 30% Lab 35% Leave: Con 51% Lab 16% In summary, Labour amongst remain has plummeted from 52% of the vote to 35% of the vote. Right now remain voters are swinging towards the tories. Labour's barely picked up a single lousy percentage point amongst leavers. EDIT: doublechecked my lovely transcription. Fangz fucked around with this message at 03:08 on Feb 4, 2017 |
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Feb 4, 2017 02:49
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jBrereton posted:Literally anyone but Corbyn is going to have to put forth their own ideas to brush off the Corbyn Cobwebs of fusty ineffectual rhetoric. I think that probably includes committing to spending and house building in a big way, recognising that most builders are working class tories but not having such horrible vanity that you would refuse to build houses because it might help the tories out at some future point in time. Yeah, but, again, who are these people? Because all previous experiences of Labour have shown that the way they think you have a proper discourse about immigration is to villify migrants. Tony Blair did this, which is how we started fetishising the Australian System, and the pitch in 2015 included the racist mug. Among the many popular criticisms of Corbyn that've leaked to the media, that he "doesn't get the working class" because he doesn't sufficiently villify migrants is among them. Who is there who's going to say "Actually migrants aren't stealing your jobs, the employment market just sucks and we're going to fix it", or "they're not taking the council houses/NHS beds, we just have nowhere near enough of them"? The trend of Labour does not appear to suggest this is a move that most of the PLP is willing to make.
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Feb 4, 2017 02:52
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spectralent posted:Yeah, but, again, who are these people? Because all previous experiences of Labour have shown that the way they think you have a proper discourse about immigration is to villify migrants. Tony Blair did this, which is how we started fetishising the Australian System, and the pitch in 2015 included the racist mug. Among the many popular criticisms of Corbyn that've leaked to the media, that he "doesn't get the working class" because he doesn't sufficiently villify migrants is among them. Who is there who's going to say "Actually migrants aren't stealing your jobs, the employment market just sucks and we're going to fix it", or "they're not taking the council houses/NHS beds, we just have nowhere near enough of them"? The trend of Labour does not appear to suggest this is a move that most of the PLP is willing to make.
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Feb 4, 2017 02:57
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If opposing Brexit meant losing every single Labour leave voter in return for retaining Remain voters, Labour would be better off at this point.
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Feb 4, 2017 03:11
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I wonder what Labour internal polling indicates at this point
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Feb 4, 2017 03:40
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jBrereton posted:Yes it actually has, unless you think the stats in the Brexit White Paper are entirely a fabrication.
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Feb 4, 2017 03:48
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spectralent posted:Yeah, but, again, who are these people? Because all previous experiences of Labour have shown that the way they think you have a proper discourse about immigration is to villify migrants. Tony Blair did this, which is how we started fetishising the Australian System, and the pitch in 2015 included the racist mug. Among the many popular criticisms of Corbyn that've leaked to the media, that he "doesn't get the working class" because he doesn't sufficiently villify migrants is among them. Who is there who's going to say "Actually migrants aren't stealing your jobs, the employment market just sucks and we're going to fix it", or "they're not taking the council houses/NHS beds, we just have nowhere near enough of them"? The trend of Labour does not appear to suggest this is a move that most of the PLP is willing to make. the public despises immigration regardless of the welfare system or lack thereof; this has been vividly true since the politics of the Commonwealth Immigrants Act 1962. They don't give a poo poo about whether the country has full employment, far above anything reached in this neoliberal age (the unemployment rate in 1960 was 1.7%). They don't care that they have booming numbers of council houses. There are always too many immigrants. (at the same time they also want to say that they love and support Hard Working Immigrants, that they believe that Families Should Be Reunited, that they think that Britain Should Help The Targets Of Genocide Because Never Again Etc Etc. But you can only decide how to square this circle once you are in office) some desultory I-feel-your-pain-ing is always necessary; there's no call for going overboard, though, since at its core the voters who care most about migrants also straight-up don't believe that Labour will control immigration, and will not believe Labour no matter what statements it issues. It's just: don't go around openly confronting or insulting these people, because they have friends and families and they, as a class, vote too.
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Feb 4, 2017 03:50
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Fangz posted:Okay, let's actually look into this. 3 YouGov polls: We're talking about Labour 'going pro-Brexit' in the last couple of weeks, and whether that's driving away the Remain-voting majority of those who intended to vote Labour. What's happened between April last year and now is interesting and all, but it hardly points to Labour's recent Article 50 stance as the cause. Kind of a lot has happened, you know? But if you want to look at those trends anyway, it might be more helpful to keep things consistent by including the don't knows and non-voters pre:
April
Leave Remain
Lab: 13% 43%
Con: 24% 21%
pre:
July
Leave Remain
Lab: 13% 32%
Con: 39% 22%
pre:
January
Leave Remain
Lab: 13% 28%
Con: 39% 23%
So it's more like a drop from 43% of Remain voters to 28%, with the vast majority of that loss being realised during the referendum and its outcome - the Tories almost doubling their share of the Leave vote by July. There's been some loss in the 6 months since then, which is obviously bad, but again there are lots of reasons why Labour might have lost a few percent of any demographic over that period There's been a shift in support for going ahead with Brexit among Remain voters, and it's become a key polling issue overall, which is apparently the specific reason Labour's positioned itself this way on Article 50. If this recent approach has caused an exodus of Remain voters, which is what we're talking about, it hasn't really shown itself in the recent polls e- sorry had some of the Tory votes reversed, phone postin is hard baka kaba fucked around with this message at 04:00 on Feb 4, 2017 |
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Feb 4, 2017 03:54
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ronya posted:I wonder what Labour internal polling indicates at this point this implies there's a clear indication from the polling which there isn't because this issue is, for some reason, not clear-cut
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Feb 4, 2017 03:55
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jBrereton posted:What the gently caress are you on about. Immigration hasn't been soaring. There's been a spike in the past couple of years, but only enough to take us back to 2005 levels. It has, however, been accentuated by a rate of emigration that's been shrinking since it peaked in 2008, making net migration figures spike because less people are leaving to compensate for the usual number of people arriving.
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Feb 4, 2017 04:05
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baka kaba posted:We're talking about Labour 'going pro-Brexit' in the last couple of weeks, and whether that's driving away the Remain-voting majority of those who intended to vote Labour. What's happened between April last year and now is interesting and all, but it hardly points to Labour's recent Article 50 stance as the cause. Kind of a lot has happened, you know? It's not actually a recent thing that Labour is going with brexit though. They hosed it up during the campaign and Corbyn came out for immediate triggering of article 50 on day one. I also don't know why you think it's reasonable to shed the likelihood to vote screen which is what you are doing by including non-voters. Like seriously, talking about whether there's a further exodus of remain voters is surely besides the point. The priority surely is to regain those voters. The pro-brexit strategy hasn't gained a single leave voter. Edit: like, what would you call an 'exodus of remainers'? Obviously we probably won't get to the point where remainers prefer the conservatives to labour - the end state here is probably equality, with remainers seeing no difference between Brexit Tory and Brexit Labour. And yeah, Labour lost half their lead amongst remainers between July and now. How much do they need to lose before you acknowledge this policy is nuts? There's not much left. Fangz fucked around with this message at 04:44 on Feb 4, 2017 |
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Feb 4, 2017 04:24
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If you want a true measure of how insane the Labour strategy is, note that the Lib dems gained more leave voters since July than Labour did.
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Feb 4, 2017 04:53
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if I were on Corbyn's strategic team I'd be much more nervous about whether the Brexit furore is weakening Momentum, especially now that the Momentum NCG elections have put a slate into place for a whole year anyway, have some drama fodder: https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/827500089430175746
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Feb 4, 2017 05:02
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Fangz posted:I also don't know why you think it's reasonable to shed the likelihood to vote screen which is what you are doing by including non-voters. It's reasonable because you're talking about winning over or losing the people who voted Remain, which is a fixed group. Excluding a chunk of them distorts the numbers - like if some of the non/don't know Remain voters decide they will actually support the government going forward, Labour's share will go down even though they haven't lost any votes (or even if they gain some, but not as many). Including all of them shows exactly where their support is or isn't going And it's not true that they haven't gained any leave voters. I don't know why you just decided to pick those 3 dates where the leave share is 13%, but those polls come out every week and last week's had Labour's leave support on 10%, the week before that it was 9. That doesn't prove we're headed to the moon, but an upward shift since the whole Article 50 positioning thing isn't evidence it's not working either This is meant to be a long-term strategy for making the best of a poo poo situation. It's too early to say if it's working or not, but whatever happened last year to lose Labour support, they have to move forward from here. And that means winning support from Remain voters too (who, remember, now poll with a majority supporting some form of Brexit)
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Feb 4, 2017 05:07
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I explained my reasoning pretty clearly, trying to cherry pick polling dates is pretty lovely! (You wanna talk about how the week before the two weeks you mentioned Labour was at 15% amongst leavers?) If you seriously want to play this 'long term strategy' card, then lol, okay, then what you are really saying is not that there's no evidence of remain leaving Labour en masse, but that it's impossible to give you any evidence that convinces you because you can just arbitrarily move the date further forward, claiming the plan would start working any day now. Well, screw you for wasting my time then. I'd ask you to supply whatever bullshit poll you think shows a majority of remainers support Brexit but it hardly seems worthwhile any more. Just, folks, ask yourself how satisfied you would be with this plan if Blair was doing it. Fangz fucked around with this message at 05:42 on Feb 4, 2017 |
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Feb 4, 2017 05:11
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there seems a serious level of dispute amongst the Momentum types over whether the Peterborough speech was supposed to serve the Labour left or the Labour right (which, to me, seems an extension of the underlying dispute whether Brexit can be Lexit made incarnate)
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Feb 4, 2017 05:19
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I bet that I can spout out the worst anti-english rheotic across england and still get better approval results then Corbyn.ronya posted:anyway, have some drama fodder: We already talked about that.
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Feb 4, 2017 05:41
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The labour party remains bad and poo poo, surprising no-one. Well, no-one it seems, apart from the few who think that a change of captain will somehow plug the holes in the hull of a sinking ship -- that ship having hit an iceberg. Thinking "anyone but Corbyn" can save the labour party at this stage is as daft as it turned out believing in Corbyn himself was in the first place. Some things you just can't foresee. Brexit came to wreck everything and ruin our lives. God sent it. gently caress this dogshit country and all who sail in her.
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Feb 4, 2017 06:39
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McDonnell is my least favourite Labour politician because of his previous support for the Provisional IRA and his apparent interest in thwarting the Good Friday Agreement back in the 1990s (a position he shares with, erm, the DUP) but even so I think he would make a better leader because at least he seems like he actually wants to be chancellor. By the same token, I'm mainly ill-disposed towards Corbyn because of how he seemed to feel about Northern Ireland during the Troubles. It isn't because they believe in a united Ireland; lots of sensible people believe in that. It's that they were opposed to peace agreements not because they were bad agreements but because they didn't go far enough towards giving the Provos everything they wanted.
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Feb 4, 2017 07:07
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lol https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3808692
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Feb 4, 2017 08:02
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TomViolence posted:The labour party remains bad and poo poo, surprising no-one. Well, no-one it seems, apart from the few who think that a change of captain will somehow plug the holes in the hull of a sinking ship -- that ship having hit an iceberg. Corbyn sailed Labour into the iceberg. He's hosed up and it's going to take a long, long time to put things right.
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Feb 4, 2017 08:29
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Pissflaps posted:Corbyn sailed Labour into the iceberg. He's hosed up and it's going to take a long, long time to put things right. Right is exactly where it doesn't need to go back to, thanks.
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Feb 4, 2017 08:35
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spectralent posted:I remember the racist mug
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Feb 4, 2017 08:39
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Kokoro Wish posted:Right is exactly where it doesn't need to go back to, thanks. Yes, yes, red Tories etc etc. I'm worried that Corbyn will stand down before the election. His nose needs to be rubbed in his mess.
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Feb 4, 2017 08:43
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Pissflaps posted:Corbyn sailed Labour into the iceberg. He's hosed up and it's going to take a long, long time to put things right. Labour was a sinking ship before that. Corbyn was the last worthwhile attempt at keeping it above the waterline. And now, like this tenuous and overstretched metaphor (godwilling), it is time for it to die.
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Feb 4, 2017 08:56
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You can keep telling yourself that for the next few Tory election wins if it makes you feel better.
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Feb 4, 2017 08:58
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Pissflaps posted:You can keep telling yourself that for the next few Tory election wins if it makes you feel better. Of course, labour didn't just lose two elections in a row before Corbyn was elected leader, after all.
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Feb 4, 2017 09:00
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Pissflaps posted:Yes, yes, red Tories etc etc. Glad you agree, good riddance to the centrists. Couldn't even win an election against an inept bunch of Tories. But then again, Diet Tory never would have.
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Feb 4, 2017 09:01
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Pissflaps posted:Yes, yes, red Tories etc etc. That's not very rational.
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Feb 4, 2017 09:09
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TomViolence posted:Of course, labour didn't just lose two elections in a row before Corbyn was elected leader, after all. Losing two elections in a row isn't unusual, especially when the first comes after a long period in government.
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Feb 4, 2017 09:14
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Kokoro Wish posted:Glad you agree, good riddance to the centrists. Couldn't even win an election against an inept bunch of Tories. But then again, Diet Tory never would have. I thought Tony Blair was a 'red tory' and he won three? Regarde Aduck posted:That's not very rational. If Corbyn doesn't lose the election personally Labour will be haunted by 'Corbyn would have won' types.
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Feb 4, 2017 09:16
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Pissflaps posted:Losing two elections in a row is common in British politics, especially when the first comes after a long period in government. Well, they haven't lost any in the time since so I don't know what you're griping about with regards to Corbyn's record. Still everything to play for and up to 4 years on the clock.
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Feb 4, 2017 09:17
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TomViolence posted:Well, they haven't lost any in the time since so I don't know what you're griping about with regards to Corbyn's record. Still everything to play for and up to 4 years on the clock. In four years time we'll be about nine months into the next Tory government.
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Feb 4, 2017 09:18
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John McDonnell assured on the Beeb this morning. Clearest anyone from Labour has been on Brexit - "article 50 not the big issue we set out our red lines weeks ago." Also an interesting line on post Brexit unity - "fallout will unify us but split the Tories."
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Feb 4, 2017 09:20
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...how is he planning to enforce his 'red lines' if he considers the triggering of article 50 to not be a big issue?  That's not clear at all that's even more confusing.
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Feb 4, 2017 09:21
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The big issue is that once article 50 is triggered and the democratic decision of the referendum is put into action, we get the best deal possible at the negotiations over the next two years. Article 50 is just the beginning and probably most minor step of the process.
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Feb 4, 2017 09:25
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Pissflaps posted:If Corbyn doesn't lose the election personally Labour will be haunted by 'Corbyn would have won' types. and if he does lead the party into the next election Labour will be haunted by 'Corbyn would have won if it weren't for the leadership challenge' or some other unprovable hypothetical. same as people still argue about whether Brown should've called that early election, or if Dave Milliband would've triumphed where Ed failed.
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Feb 4, 2017 09:26
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