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Inspector_666 posted:The projections generally undervalue good bullpens, and I don't see any reason why the Yankees can't at least hit the same win total as last season seeing as it's pretty much an identical team and if anything the roster generally underperformed last year. The yankees are such a bizarre team this year that I can easily see them going anywhere from 71 wins to 91 wins.
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Feb 8, 2017 16:15
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Paul Zuvella posted:The yankees are such a bizarre team this year that I can easily see them going anywhere from 71 wins to 91 wins. Pretty much. I'm basing my repeating mid-80s-wins idea on the kids not all flaming out, because if that does happen their win pct is secondary to the "Oh gently caress" that will envelop the entire operation.
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Feb 8, 2017 16:29
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R.D. Mangles posted:what kind of insane projection system has the cardinals at 75 wins One that accounts for a large regression of offense and identical pitching. Also one that accounts for Matheny.
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Feb 8, 2017 16:52
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Just read that article on Manfred talking about shifts:quote:Speaking to WFAN’s Mike Francesa on Wednesday, Manfred acknowledged “there has been an explosion in terms of the amount of shifting that’s going on,” referring to the practice of overloading one side of the field against pull hitters. And that's...bad??
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Feb 8, 2017 17:37
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tinstaach posted:Just read that article on Manfred talking about shifts:
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Feb 8, 2017 17:40
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Or players could adapt by learning how to hit better (or bunt one down the third base line)
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Feb 8, 2017 17:42
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Dr. Angela Ziegler posted:Or players could adapt by learning how to hit better (or bunt one down the third base line) That doesn't really change the fact that 3TO players are generally better than those that rely on putting balls into play. Bryant, Harper, Trout, and Goldschmidt are all top 10 3TO players.
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Feb 8, 2017 17:50
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Dr. Angela Ziegler posted:Or players could adapt by learning how to hit better (or bunt one down the third base line)
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Feb 8, 2017 18:35
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bawfuls posted:There is a reasonable argument to be made that fewer balls in play makes for less interesting baseball to watch. Pushing batters towards the Three True Outcomes would exacerbate this. I think "games are too long" is still the #1 problem, though.
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Feb 8, 2017 19:03
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Paul Zuvella posted:That doesn't really change the fact that 3TO players are generally better than those that rely on putting balls into play. Bryant, Harper, Trout, and Goldschmidt are all top 10 3TO players. Players who hit homers and walk a lot are good, players who hit homers but strike out a ton and don't walk aren't. Lumping both groups together as "3TO players" isn't particularly helpful. tadashi posted:I think "games are too long" is still the #1 problem, though. If Manfred wants to reduce game times then he should be all in favour of shifting, offence makes games longer. Julio Cruz fucked around with this message at 19:15 on Feb 8, 2017 |
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Feb 8, 2017 19:12
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tinstaach posted:And that's...bad?? Strikeouts are fascist.
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Feb 8, 2017 19:28
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Honestly it just kinda sucks to see dudes get put out by someone playing in a softball rover position. It not only cuts down on offense but in some ways makes defense less interesting. Whether or not it should actually be considered "good" defense, seeing the 2B make a diving stop and throwing a dude out on his knees from the edge of the dirt is just more fun to watch. Still, I'm not really in favor of banning the shift.
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Feb 8, 2017 19:34
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Dr. Angela Ziegler posted:Or players could adapt by learning how to hit better (or bunt one down the third base line)
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Feb 8, 2017 19:38
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Julio Cruz posted:Players who hit homers and walk a lot are good, players who hit homers but strike out a ton and don't walk aren't. Lumping both groups together as "3TO players" isn't particularly helpful. Strikeouts just don't matter as much as people seem to think. 41 of the top players in the game by fWAR have a K% above 20%. Players are going to create outs, its just part of the game. e: I would honestly be in favor of limiting where players can be on the field. LF, SS, 3B have to be to the right of the 2nd base bag, 2B, 1B and RF have to be the left of it. Just making it so the SS and 2B can't start a play on the opposite side of the bad would change things immensely. Paul Zuvella fucked around with this message at 19:43 on Feb 8, 2017 |
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Feb 8, 2017 19:40
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UZR IS BULLSHIT posted:Honestly it just kinda sucks to see dudes get put out by someone playing in a softball rover position. It not only cuts down on offense but in some ways makes defense less interesting. Whether or not it should actually be considered "good" defense, seeing the 2B make a diving stop and throwing a dude out on his knees from the edge of the dirt is just more fun to watch.
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Feb 8, 2017 19:45
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UZR IS BULLSHIT posted:Honestly it just kinda sucks to see dudes get put out by someone playing in a softball rover position. It not only cuts down on offense but in some ways makes defense less interesting. Whether or not it should actually be considered "good" defense, seeing the 2B make a diving stop and throwing a dude out on his knees from the edge of the dirt is just more fun to watch. It's not like David Ortiz shooting a soft groundball single through the right side for the millionth time is a super thrilling play either.
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Feb 8, 2017 19:46
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UZR IS BULLSHIT posted:Honestly it just kinda sucks to see dudes get put out by someone playing in a softball rover position. It not only cuts down on offense but in some ways makes defense less interesting. Whether or not it should actually be considered "good" defense, seeing the 2B make a diving stop and throwing a dude out on his knees from the edge of the dirt is just more fun to watch. Meh. To use another sports example. If you are playing basketball and you know your opponent can't go left. You are going to do everything in power to take the right hand away and force him to his weaker hand. It's boring, but great defense is often boring. If someone is in the right spot and makes the right read an otherwise tough play looks routine.
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Feb 8, 2017 19:50
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Assuming big power and pull hitting are pretty well correlated it seems like the Dawn of the Shift Age would disproportionately affect big bats and chase some power hitters out of the league or reduce their ABs, has this happened in practice?
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Feb 8, 2017 19:51
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Dexo posted:Meh. To use another sports example. If you are playing basketball and you know your opponent can't go left. You are going to do everything in power to take the right hand away and force him to his weaker hand. The difference is that, in baseball, a good hitter has 3-5 at bats. In Basketball, that dudes going to touch the ball like 70-80 more times. More opportunities for weird poo poo to happen, more opportunities for the defender to gently caress up leading to cool poo poo.
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Feb 8, 2017 19:52
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bewbies posted:Assuming big power and pull hitting are pretty well correlated it seems like the Dawn of the Shift Age would disproportionately affect big bats and chase some power hitters out of the league or reduce their ABs, has this happened in practice? Like we've previously discussed, it just makes 3TO players more valuable. Dudes who walk a ton and mash taters are way more valuable. It effects pull hitters that DON'T have home run power way more than pull hitters that mash taters.
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Feb 8, 2017 19:53
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Paul Zuvella posted:Strikeouts just don't matter as much as people seem to think. 41 of the top players in the game by fWAR have a K% above 20%. Players are going to create outs, its just part of the game. The point I'm making is that saying players with a higher 3TO percentage are better doesn't make sense when one of those outcomes (making an out) is a bad thing for a batter to be doing. Being able to say "some of them are good" is not a useful tool when the top guy is Chris Carter who is demonstrably not good.
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Feb 8, 2017 20:30
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Just do what Schwarber does and hit it through the shift.
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Feb 8, 2017 20:54
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bawfuls posted:That's the point of Manfred's quote. Players ARE adapting to increased shifts by moving towards a TTO approach. Strikeouts have been going up for 20-30 years, for a bunch of reasons: pitchers throwing harder, sabrmetrics erasing the stigma of striking out, relievers who come in to face one guy, pitchfx forcing umpires to call strikes at the knees... Home runs have spiked recently, but is that because of shifts? Teams mostly shift against LHH, but righties are hitting more dingers too. League-wide walk rates have been pretty low lately, compared to the last few decades.
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Feb 8, 2017 21:58
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The Pussy Boss posted:Are they, though?
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Feb 8, 2017 22:01
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Daniel Murphy is the hero we need
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Feb 8, 2017 22:16
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Cool old guy and LOOGY extraordinaire Javier Lopez is retiring. He may have stopped being able to get One Lefty Out, Guys, but drat if he didn't have a great run. https://twitter.com/AlexPavlovic/status/829447355111845888 Also for a brief period after Jeter retired he had more rings than any other active player (four).
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Feb 8, 2017 23:22
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Manfred has asserted that the big issue is pace. Obviously the big thing to fix would be a pitcher clock (which is showing success in the minor leagues, and is hopefully cultivating a faster pitch routine in minor league players), but the players' union is opposed to it. Hence why Manfred is trying to do things within his control. I'm just not seeing how shifts are causing a pacing issue.
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Feb 9, 2017 00:06
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The Berzerker posted:Chris Carter is nothing super special but his signing just makes the Justin Smoak extension that much more horrible/funny/horrible Yeah, the Jays have handled the 1B/DH spot poorly. They signed Smoak to a 2/8.25 deal, paying a lot for a dude whose asset is that he has a great glove (which isn't really my first priority at 1B, but I digress). Then they mishandled the EE situation by misreading the market, and when EE didn't sign their 4/80 offer, they went out and overpaid for Morales, and also signed Steve Pearce. I mean, it's not my money, so who cares? But, I am not exactly thrilled with who the Jays are headed into the season with. I am not a fan of Carter, but I'd much rather see him launch dingers, even with his lovely average and high strikeouts, then watch whatever the heck it is that Smoak does. Also, I don't actually dislike Morales, but I would have much rather seen EE fill his role.
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Feb 9, 2017 00:09
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seiferguy posted:I'm just not seeing how shifts are causing a pacing issue. They aren't. I don't think the shift stuff is coming up in the game length arguments so much as they are in the general "Is baseball cool and hip and fun?!" arguments.
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Feb 9, 2017 00:11
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Inspector_666 posted:They aren't. I don't think the shift stuff is coming up in the game length arguments so much as they are in the general "Is baseball cool and hip and fun?!" arguments. Well, I think it's still something worth assessing if that's the case. Baseball is huge among baby boomers, but younger generations still aren't with it. I still think it's gonna take some time before teams start adjusting to shifts. Speaking of new rules, Joe Torre is considering a new extra innings rule that will be implemented in the low minors: http://sports.yahoo.com/news/mlb-plans-to-test-new-extra-innings-rules-in-rookie-ball-with-joe-torres-approval-224914115.html (It's placing a runner on 1st base starting in extra innings).
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Feb 9, 2017 00:16
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seiferguy posted:Well, I think it's still something worth assessing if that's the case. Baseball is huge among baby boomers, but younger generations still aren't with it. I still think it's gonna take some time before teams start adjusting to shifts. That rule would be ok in the regular season, but I hope to the gods they don't do it for post
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Feb 9, 2017 00:20
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seiferguy posted:Well, I think it's still something worth assessing if that's the case. Baseball is huge among baby boomers, but younger generations still aren't with it. I still think it's gonna take some time before teams start adjusting to shifts. The thing is that the length of the game isn't the issue. Pace of the game maybe, but I think they're focused on the wrong stuff, and part of this is also MLB being loving idiots about marketing. The NFL and NBA make their star players loving stars, most people, even casual-to-slightly-serious fans probably couldn't pick Mike Trout out of a lineup. (No pun originally intended.) Even if they're 100% sure that pace of play or time of games is the fix, they're focused on all the wrong places. A runner on base means more sac flies or bunts and gently caress. that. Speaking of outsized players, though: Brian Wilson eyeing MLB return as a knuckleballer.
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Feb 9, 2017 00:30
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Pat Venditte's on Italy's roster for the WBC.
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Feb 9, 2017 00:42
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USA roster is pretty good: https://twitter.com/WBCBaseball/status/829470570492338177
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Feb 9, 2017 00:44
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seiferguy posted:Well, I think it's still something worth assessing if that's the case. Baseball is huge among baby boomers, but younger generations still aren't with it. I still think it's gonna take some time before teams start adjusting to shifts.
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Feb 9, 2017 00:49
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Inspector_666 posted:USA roster is pretty good:  Posey/Goldschmidt/Kinsler/Crawford/Arenado infield is straight up insane.Not gonna let a single ball through.
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Feb 9, 2017 00:51
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Inspector_666 posted:The thing is that the length of the game isn't the issue. Pace of the game maybe, but I think they're focused on the wrong stuff, and part of this is also MLB being loving idiots about marketing. The NFL and NBA make their star players loving stars, most people, even casual-to-slightly-serious fans probably couldn't pick Mike Trout out of a lineup. (No pun originally intended.) Even if they're 100% sure that pace of play or time of games is the fix, they're focused on all the wrong places. "I may be 34 but I'm 26 biologically and just spent a month eating nothing but guac." 
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Feb 9, 2017 00:57
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Crazy Ted posted:If they're worried that much about extra innings lengthening games, limit regular season ones to 12 and allow for ties. Save time, save pitchers' arms in the process. Ties would be the #1 thing I don't want them to do.
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Feb 9, 2017 00:57
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Soul Glo posted:"I may be 34 but I'm 26 biologically and just spent a month eating nothing but guac." On a related note: he also spent a month on the toilet.
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Feb 9, 2017 01:01
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Inspector_666 posted:USA roster is pretty good: The lineup is going to be fearsome but they don't really have any dominant starters on that roster. I guess they start Stroman/Fulmer/Duffy and just use lots of guys out of the pen for a batter or two each?
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Feb 9, 2017 01:02
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