|
JFairfax posted:Kennedy was assassinated by a lone wolf I think you'll find that a was an unwilling agent of the Illuminati/NWO co-opted into being an assassin by the CIA's MKULTRA programme.
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2017 18:57
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 10, 2024 05:42 |
|
|
Lord of the Llamas posted:I'm saying we should use all the information instead of making retarded conclusions from just the headline numbers like TinTower and the commentariat do. The headline figures are the ONLY numbers in those crosstabs that use all the information.
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2017 18:57
|
|
|
Oberleutnant posted:I think you'll find that a was an unwilling agent of the Illuminati/NWO co-opted into being an assassin by the CIA's MKULTRA programme. if MKULTRA was required history you'd never again be called a conspiracy theorist for mentioning that papers are poo poo hacks these days
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2017 18:58
|
|
|
was it MKULTRA where the CIA briefly dosed elephants with acid to get an idea on physical tolerance?
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2017 18:59
|
|
|
Fangz posted:The headline figures are the ONLY numbers in those crosstabs that use all the information. They explicitly exclude don't knows and don't even give variance estimates so they're obviously throwing away some information. Meanwhile the rest of the world merrily throw around 95% confidence intervals based on the binomial distribution and sample size pretending they've got a loving clue.
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2017 19:00
|
|
|
Spangly A posted:was it MKULTRA where the CIA briefly dosed elephants with acid to get an idea on physical tolerance? That was where they briefly dosed homeless people, drug addicts, prostitutes, students, and their own staff unwillingly and unwittingly just for funsies, resulting in deaths and substantial psychological trauma. Well, they were experimenting with mind control and tevhniques for making people more/less reliable/resistant under questioning, as well as trying to figure out chemical compounds for causing permanent and temporary amnesia.
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2017 19:02
|
|
|
yeah they gave LSD to people without telling them. the CIA is real bad + evil
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2017 19:04
|
|
|
JFairfax posted:yeah they gave LSD to people without telling them. It's been a while since I sat down and went over the declassifieds for fun but I, noted drug lover, would not want to be injected by a KG of lsd, and I'm nearly certain they used a KG on at least one occasion. Possibly the elephant. While trying to work out if LSD was a truth serum e; lol now I'm remembering the Big Buzz and housewife syndrome
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2017 19:07
|
|
|
how do they know if an elephant is telling the truth or not?
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2017 19:09
|
|
|
Lord of the Llamas posted:They explicitly exclude don't knows and don't even give variance estimates so they're obviously throwing away some information. Meanwhile the rest of the world merrily throw around 95% confidence intervals based on the binomial distribution and sample size pretending they've got a loving clue. The removal of don't knows amounts to trying to model how the don't knows will vote. If you remove them naively that corresponds to an assumption that they will vote along the lines of the rest of the population or don't vote. Obviously data has been thrown away. But the point of the headline figures is that they are compiled on the basis of respondent level data that is not made available to the public. We don't know that respondent 157 is a female aged 43 living in West Anglia, whereas YouGov do. It is thus impossible (without very strong assumptions being made) to form estimates of the sort of the headline figures from the data presented in the crosstabs. The headline figures, assuming YouGov aren't complete idiots, correspond to our best estimate. If you wanna go full Nate Silver, then yeah you can make some progress. There, while we still don't have the internal data polling companies do, looking at how multiple polls from different companies move together gives us some data on how they work, allowing us to aggregate things successfully. Generally though the fact we lack the equivalent of state wide polling creates issues for us though. Specifically 538 did well because he could estimate correlations between state polls. We just can't do that in the UK. Fangz fucked around with this message at 19:19 on Feb 9, 2017 |
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2017 19:15
|
|
|
JFairfax posted:how do they know if an elephant is telling the truth or not? idk my only explanation of some MKULTRA stuff is that they weren't using gloves when handling LSD
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2017 19:16
|
|
|
JFairfax posted:how do they know if an elephant is telling the truth or not? Well, they say elephants never forget, so I guess you could tell them something, dose them with LSD and then ask them about the thing. If they say they don't know anything about it, you know they are lying.
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2017 19:19
|
|
|
remember when the american government spent 40 years infecting a black community with syphilis and then admitted there wasn't any reason behind it after stopping
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2017 19:22
|
|
|
remember when the CIA helped send Cocaine into the inner cities to destroy black neighbourhoods and spark the crack epidemic?
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2017 19:24
|
|
|
Jose posted:remember when the american government spent 40 years infecting a black community with syphilis and then admitted there wasn't any reason behind it after stopping I mean, no one was actively infected with syphilis, they just lied about treating them. It's still barbaric and shameful, it doesn't need exaggeration
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2017 19:29
|
|
|
Strictly speaking that's true. The yanks perferred to use prisoners and the mentally disabled for the experiments where they actively infected people for no reason. In fact there are a few other examples.
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2017 19:54
|
|
|
The world wars really were basically entirely political conflicts and I wish more people remembered that.
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2017 20:11
|
|
|
Spangly A posted:was it MKULTRA where the CIA briefly dosed elephants with acid to get an idea on physical tolerance? That's a hell of a fatality.
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2017 20:30
|
|
|
Fangz posted:The removal of don't knows amounts to trying to model how the don't knows will vote. If you remove them naively that corresponds to an assumption that they will vote along the lines of the rest of the population or don't vote. Indeed, and you could even model that assumption either as a complete exclusion or put a prior distribution on them, or come up with a more sophisticated model based on where the DKs appear in the other crosstabs. I've not for a moment said the headline figures aren't a good estimate of the expected means but people in news articles or internet forums don't present polling results without comment. Understanding whether a conclusion someone draws or assertion they make based on headline polling figures is valid is much more difficult if you don't look at more than just the headline figures - e.g. it's a different story if a headline drop in support for Labour is due to an increase in former supporters becoming DKs or them actively switching to other parties. It should also be much less surprising is a poll the day before an election is 4-5% off the result if there were 20% DKs as opposed to 10% DKs. Everywhere people discussing polls make explicit and implicit assumptions about how significant a 1% or x% gap in a polling result is and the whole point of what I'm arguing is that headline figures are insufficient to make strong claims about that in a lot of cases but that there's an awful lot of information released in the polls that an informed reader can draw a better conclusion with having to have access to the private data the polling firm holds. What I'm saying is that you don't have to go full Nate Silver for people to have a better quality of debate around poll results than Googling for a "margin of error calculator" and naively plugging in a couple of numbers. Whilst I would love to have tons more polling data available in the UK we really don't use what we already have very well and that's because your average politics nerd or journalist has no real grasp of the art or science of statistics and probability. It amazes me constantly how unwilling and hostile people are to debate the nature of variability and uncertainty and how we can reason about and understand it. Edit: Looking at a published YouGov poll again it's interesting that both the weighted/unweighted reported sample size is the same in both the includes and excludes DKs pages. Given that this covers 30% of the 1705 respondents even the naive margin of error calculation would be seriously wrong in that case and there's no way of realising that unless you look beyond the headline figures. Lord of the Llamas fucked around with this message at 21:23 on Feb 9, 2017 |
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2017 21:13
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/829757250113794049 https://twitter.com/JamesDuddridge/status/828714925753262081
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2017 21:57
|
|
|
Speaker of Parliament should not speak on behalf of parliament!
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2017 21:59
|
|
|
i really want trump to give a stump speech in commons https://twitter.com/mahirzeynalov/status/825116582238093319 Jose fucked around with this message at 22:13 on Feb 9, 2017 |
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2017 22:10
|
|
|
OwlFancier posted:The world wars really were basically entirely political conflicts and I wish more people remembered that. I like how people remember WWII for being a conflict arising due to nationalism and don't really think about WWI...which was also a conflict started by a critical mass of right wing nationalistic governments in Europe leading their countries into war for jingoistic reasons. Poincare lied, Jaures died
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2017 22:50
|
|
|
Pissflaps never posted the recipe!
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2017 22:56
|
|
|
OwlFancier posted:The world wars really were basically entirely political conflicts and I wish more people remembered that. that's a bit of an obvious statement as pretty much every war fits into the idea of 'war is the continuation of politics by other means'
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2017 22:57
|
|
|
JFairfax posted:that's a bit of an obvious statement as pretty much every war fits into the idea of 'war is the continuation of politics by other means' I think you'll find that the second world war was are brave boys going off to fight victor von doom and his evil plan to murder everyone in the world and we never do anything he would do because only bad people do that and we are good people.
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2017 23:03
|
|
|
Jedit posted:He hasn't been a fuckwit making GBS threads up the UKMT. You don't actually believe that do you? You think all the bickering Corbyn has caused in this thread is good? hakimashou fucked around with this message at 23:13 on Feb 9, 2017 |
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2017 23:04
|
|
|
MikeCrotch posted:Does anyone know how the Colombian government's decision to ignore the result of the FARC referendum and sign a peace treaty anyway went? There was substantive change as a result of the referendum no vote though - the Beeb says all but one of the original 57 points of agreement were amended in some way as part of the revised deal, with the five biggest changes: quote:The five main points which have been changed are: They may have got the senate to ratify the revised agreement instead of using another referendum, but the result wasn't ignored.
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2017 23:51
|
|
|
What part of the original peace deal violates the family values of the Catholic Church? Was someone wearing a condom under their suit?
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2017 23:55
|
|
|
OwlFancier posted:The world wars really were basically entirely political conflicts and I wish more people remembered that. Thats a little reductionist.
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2017 23:56
|
|
|
MikeCrotch posted:I like how people remember WWII for being a conflict arising due to nationalism and don't really think about WWI...which was also a conflict started by a critical mass of right wing nationalistic governments in Europe leading their countries into war for jingoistic reasons. Poor Jaures. He was too good for us.
|
|
#
?
Feb 10, 2017 00:01
|
|
|
Guavanaut posted:What part of the original peace deal violates the family values of the Catholic Church? Was someone wearing a condom under their suit?
|
|
#
?
Feb 10, 2017 00:01
|
|
|
Rakosi posted:Thats a little reductionist.
|
|
#
?
Feb 10, 2017 00:04
|
|
|
Guavanaut posted:What part of the original peace deal violates the family values of the Catholic Church? Was someone wearing a condom under their suit? There was language in the original peace deal specifically addressing gender and LGBTI issues that guaranteed economic and social rights to people of "diverse sexual orientations and indentities". Cue salty right wing religious backlash from people still smarting over the legalisation of same sex marriage kustomkarkommando fucked around with this message at 00:24 on Feb 10, 2017 |
|
#
?
Feb 10, 2017 00:22
|
|
|
Oberleutnant posted:That was where they briefly dosed homeless people, drug addicts, prostitutes, students, and their own staff unwillingly and unwittingly just for funsies, resulting in deaths and substantial psychological trauma. Operation Midnight Climax was specifically forcing LSD on the CLIENTS of prostitutes, who generally were people who couldn't reveal how they'd been dosed and so wouldn't report it to the police.
|
|
#
?
Feb 10, 2017 00:32
|
|
|
kustomkarkommando posted:There was language in the original peace deal specifically addressing gender and LGBTI issues that guaranteed economic and social rights to people of "diverse sexual orientations and indentities". Cue salty right wing religious backlash from people still smarting over the legalisation of same sex marriage MrL_JaKiri posted:Operation Midnight Climax was specifically forcing LSD on the CLIENTS of prostitutes, who generally were people who couldn't reveal how they'd been dosed and so wouldn't report it to the police.
|
|
#
?
Feb 10, 2017 00:38
|
|
|
Special snowflakes demand BBC be a safe space for them.
|
|
#
?
Feb 10, 2017 00:48
|
|
|
gently caress's sake Owen Smith is pathetic on Question Time. If you are asked whether you'd be concerned about an elderly relative going into hospital with the current state of the NHS, the correct answer is yes. Not to say you're sure they'd get good care.
|
|
#
?
Feb 10, 2017 00:53
|
|
|
So it is possible to blindly accuse everyone of racism until you get your way.
|
|
#
?
Feb 10, 2017 00:58
|
|
I can't get enough of are Dan
|
|
| # ? May 10, 2024 05:42 |
|
|
Rakosi posted:Thats a little reductionist. black hand assassinates pm, "not political", says forum user HJB posted:So it is possible to blindly accuse everyone of racism until you get your way. only if you're white, though
|
|
#
?
Feb 10, 2017 00:58
|
|