Fantasy Football 2016: There is no god. Existence is a joke

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > The Armchair Quarterback > Fantasy Football 2016: There is no god. Existence is a joke

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Nur_Neerg: Sep 1, 2004; The Lumbering but Unstoppable Sasquatch of the Appalachians

Sataere posted:

A few thoughts. Big thing though is that it is way too early on some of these thoughts.

1) You only have Tyrod at QB, you should not be cutting Wentz, even if you do trade for a QB.

2) I assume your rookie draft isn't until after the draft, but if you have the top pick and aren't interested in Fournette, trade down for more picks.

I also have the top pick in my rookie draft and Fournette seems to be the consensus one at the moment. I look forward to him saving me from my trash running backs.

1) I can always just roster Andy Dalton if I need a backup, Wentz has little value atm, but normally I don't have more than 1 QB on my active roster, streaming the bye. Wentz is only there because rookies that don't get started don't take a roster slot in my league.

2) I'd not seen that, all of the dynasty articles I've read are touting Cook as being ahead of Fournette in mock ADP by 1-2 spots, and calling him a tier 1 pick vs Fournette at tier 2. Got some links for me? Always need more reading material!

# ? Jan 20, 2017 22:41

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# ? May 23, 2024 13:26

Sataere: Jul 20, 2005; Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me

Nur_Neerg posted:

1) I can always just roster Andy Dalton if I need a backup, Wentz has little value atm, but normally I don't have more than 1 QB on my active roster, streaming the bye. Wentz is only there because rookies that don't get started don't take a roster slot in my league.

2) I'd not seen that, all of the dynasty articles I've read are touting Cook as being ahead of Fournette in mock ADP by 1-2 spots, and calling him a tier 1 pick vs Fournette at tier 2. Got some links for me? Always need more reading material!

Honestly, I am basing it on draft projections. Fournette has been talked about as a top ten draft pick in the draft. If people are projecting Cook ahead of him, I would be curious about the logic.

Mayne it's closer than I thought, as I haven't really started doing my research yet.

EDIT: How many teams and roster spots do you have that you only roster one QB. That seems odd.

# ? Jan 20, 2017 22:50

Nur_Neerg: Sep 1, 2004; The Lumbering but Unstoppable Sasquatch of the Appalachians

Sataere posted:

Honestly, I am basing it on draft projections. Fournette has been talked about as a top ten draft pick in the draft. If people are projecting Cook ahead of him, I would be curious about the logic.

Mayne it's closer than I thought, as I haven't really started doing my research yet.

EDIT: How many teams and roster spots do you have that you only roster one QB. That seems odd.

8 team, 16 active roster slots; I don't think I've ever rostered two QBs in any league, though I've never played 2QB, obviously :v:

Do folks normally roster a backup?

# ? Jan 20, 2017 22:59

Sataere: Jul 20, 2005; Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me

Nur_Neerg posted:

8 team, 16 active roster slots; I don't think I've ever rostered two QBs in any league, though I've never played 2QB, obviously Do folks normally roster a backup?

Your league is too easy. 24 man roster, keep 16 each year. And it's a 12 man league. Your league has too much talent going back into the playoff pool.

Everyone has multiple quarterbacks on the roster, or they are stuck starting Osweiler.

# ? Jan 20, 2017 23:41

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

The Fantasy Footballers Podcast went on a long rant today about how drafting a tight end high is a wasted pick.

REDEMPTION

# ? Jan 26, 2017 22:08

Ben Nevis: Jan 20, 2011

Sataere posted:

Your league is too easy. 24 man roster, keep 16 each year. And it's a 12 man league. Your league has too much talent going back into the playoff pool.

Everyone has multiple quarterbacks on the roster, or they are stuck starting Osweiler.

Yeah, this. If you had to decide right now, I'd probably keep Wentz just from uncertainty over Taylor. Fournette and Cook is a reasonable debate, and I'd probably let landing spot decide.

Spoeank posted:

The Fantasy Footballers Podcast went on a long rant today about how drafting a tight end high is a wasted pick.

REDEMPTION

I drafted Walker high and don't regret it.

Ben Nevis fucked around with this message at 22:57 on Jan 26, 2017

# ? Jan 26, 2017 22:54

Teemu Pokemon: Jun 19, 2004; To sign them is my real test

With full no movement clause

Spoeank posted:

The Fantasy Footballers Podcast went on a long rant today about how drafting a tight end high is a wasted pick.

REDEMPTION

Don't worry guys, I'm here to gloat

# ? Jan 27, 2017 01:32

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Teemu Pokemon posted:

Don't worry guys, I'm here to gloat

Ahem, we are here to gloat. And Benne.

Ben Nevis posted:

I drafted Walker high and don't regret it.

Delanie had 8.2 PPG this year. 8.2 was:
2016 #5
2015 #9
2014 #6
2013 #9
2012 #5

Delanie is interesting because he is top five because the position was weak this year, but his 8.2 varies wildly between #5 and #9 over the last 5 seasons. So he's useful but the position was down overall this year. If it was 2015 he got beat out by Ben Watson.

# ? Jan 27, 2017 01:59

RBX: Jan 2, 2011

If I could count on 8.5 from a TE all season that's a godsend. I'm not the type to chase points tho.

# ? Jan 27, 2017 02:44

sourdough: Apr 30, 2012

Spoeank posted:

Ahem, we are here to gloat. And Benne.

Delanie had 8.2 PPG this year. 8.2 was:
2016 #5
2015 #9
2014 #6
2013 #9
2012 #5

Delanie is interesting because he is top five because the position was weak this year, but his 8.2 varies wildly between #5 and #9 over the last 5 seasons. So he's useful but the position was down overall this year. If it was 2015 he got beat out by Ben Watson.

Yeeep. Now show the same for Black Unicorn. All you fuckers so sure he'd be elite if Gronk missed any time were wrong!!

# ? Jan 27, 2017 03:26

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

RVProfootballer posted:

Yeeep. Now show the same for Black Unicorn. All you fuckers so sure he'd be elite if Gronk missed any time were wrong!!

6.8 PPG without Gronk.

So... worse.

Edit but somehow 7th overall in TE fantasy points

Spoeank fucked around with this message at 04:32 on Jan 27, 2017

# ? Jan 27, 2017 03:53

Benne: Sep 2, 2011; STOP DOING HEROIN

I loving tried to warn people about Gary Barnidge

# ? Jan 27, 2017 04:24

Forever_Peace: May 7, 2007; Shoe do do do do do do do Shoe do do do do do do yeah Shoe do do do do do do do Shoe do do do do do do yeah

Spoeank posted:

6.8 PPG without Gronk.

So... worse.

Edit but somehow 7th overall in TE fantasy points

Isn't there a site that formally keeps track of streaming TE point totals each week? That seems like a good landmark for whether or not it was worth taking an early TE. If it was trivial to get respectable points for free, it was not worth it. My sense however is that streaming TE was a garbage fire this year.

# ? Jan 27, 2017 04:35

The Zack: Jan 1, 2005; Pillbug

Spoeank posted:

6.8 PPG without Gronk.

So... worse.

Edit but somehow 7th overall in TE fantasy points

He had a couple of monster games, but he was sooo inconsistent. 5 games below 3 points and 5 above 13 (half PPR). The rest were mostly about 5 points.

# ? Jan 27, 2017 12:47

sourdough: Apr 30, 2012

Spoeank posted:

6.8 PPG without Gronk.

So... worse.

Edit but somehow 7th overall in TE fantasy points

Pretty sure when I checked past years, he would've been in the range of TE#12 or 13.

# ? Jan 27, 2017 13:54

Sataere: Jul 20, 2005; Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me

Benne posted:

I loving tried to warn people about Gary Barnidge

I can't believe how many people were on that bandwagon. Everything about him screamed regression.

I still maintain that you can't make blanket statements about the value of TE without context. If a healthy Gronk is at the back of a first round, I am taking him every time.

Getting a top flight guy like Olsen or Kelce early means you have consistency at one of the most volatile positions. You can find consistent value at RB and WR a lot easier than you can at TE.

The trick is not to reach or overdraft.

# ? Jan 27, 2017 21:58

Leperflesh: May 17, 2007

Sataere posted:

Getting a top flight guy like Olsen or Kelce early means you have consistency at one of the most volatile positions. You can find consistent value at RB and WR a lot easier than you can at TE.

The trick is not to reach or overdraft.

The trick is also to correctly guess who will be this year's high guy. Kelce and Olsen were 1 and 3 in PPR. #2 was the extremely reliable Kyle Rudolph. Jimmy Graham was #4, but he had two bad games weeks 14 and 15 that might have cost owners playoff games. Walker was 5. Ertz was 6, but had a horrible start to the season and wasn't worth owning until week 9, and only put up 5 points week 16 so may have cost some owners their championship.

Jordan Reed was #7, and LOL if you tried to rely on him! He had some monster games and was also predictably injured a lot, including three total points earned during weeks 13 through 16. He had monster games weeks 4, 8, and 12. Bleh.

Cameron Brate is #8. Very inconsistent too, although not as swingy as Reed. Dennis Pitta is next, but bolstered by a 20 point game week 17 so probably shouldn't be next, and also he was super swingy and his 10.1 average relies on three or four monster games, similar to Reed. It's exactly the same story for Martellus Bennet at #11, although for more recognizable reasons, and Jason Witten at #12 isn't much better.

Basically once you get past Kelce, Rudolph, and Olsen, you're in the weeds already. Throw in a healthy Gronk and I think you have listed all of the four tight ends worth drafting before like round 6+. Maybe 8+. If you streamed TE and picked up a Fedorowicz or a Jack Doyle for just the right games, you might have done very very well, but if you were less lucky or prescient you probably got stuck with an average of maybe 7 points per game or less at the TE position.

I think this is a strong argument to draft Travis Kelce or Greg Olsen or Kyle Rudolph very early, and if you can't, then gently caress it your TE slot is hosed. I'd add in Gronk but I feel the same way about him as about Reed: if you own him you need to consume another bench slot with another good TE and get ready to lose your top TE for the whole season at any moment, and that's probably too much to pay even for their healthy production, so don't do it.

Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 22:32 on Jan 27, 2017

# ? Jan 27, 2017 22:28

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Austin 👏 Seferian 👏 Jenkins 👏

(Not really tho, he drunk drove that dream away)

# ? Jan 27, 2017 22:41

Sataere: Jul 20, 2005; Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me

Leperflesh posted:

The trick is also to correctly guess who will be this year's high guy. Kelce and Olsen were 1 and 3 in PPR. #2 was the extremely reliable Kyle Rudolph. Jimmy Graham was #4, but he had two bad games weeks 14 and 15 that might have cost owners playoff games. Walker was 5. Ertz was 6, but had a horrible start to the season and wasn't worth owning until week 9, and only put up 5 points week 16 so may have cost some owners their championship.

Jordan Reed was #7, and LOL if you tried to rely on him! He had some monster games and was also predictably injured a lot, including three total points earned during weeks 13 through 16. He had monster games weeks 4, 8, and 12. Bleh.

Cameron Brate is #8. Very inconsistent too, although not as swingy as Reed. Dennis Pitta is next, but bolstered by a 20 point game week 17 so probably shouldn't be next, and also he was super swingy and his 10.1 average relies on three or four monster games, similar to Reed. It's exactly the same story for Martellus Bennet at #11, although for more recognizable reasons, and Jason Witten at #12 isn't much better.

Basically once you get past Kelce, Rudolph, and Olsen, you're in the weeds already. Throw in a healthy Gronk and I think you have listed all of the four tight ends worth drafting before like round 6+. Maybe 8+. If you streamed TE and picked up a Fedorowicz or a Jack Doyle for just the right games, you might have done very very well, but if you were less lucky or prescient you probably got stuck with an average of maybe 7 points per game or less at the TE position.

I think this is a strong argument to draft Travis Kelce or Greg Olsen or Kyle Rudolph very early, and if you can't, then gently caress it your TE slot is hosed. I'd add in Gronk but I feel the same way about him as about Reed: if you own him you need to consume another bench slot with another good TE and get ready to lose your top TE for the whole season at any moment, and that's probably too much to pay even for their healthy production, so don't do it.

It's probably too early, buthen I would probably include Eifert in that group. But he has the same Gronk/Reed issues of health.

I think what people forget us that you have the exact time same issues determining which QB, RB or WR us going to produce. The difference I'd there us a wider pool and a bigger focal point for offenses, so the position never feels as dire until week four when half of the NFL is dead.

# ? Jan 27, 2017 23:29

Leperflesh: May 17, 2007

You're also going to draft a lot more RBs and WRs, which lets you spread your risk. And even a mediocre mid-range QB is going to throw some passes every week and get you a few points, whereas a mediocre mid-range TE may get you zeros for half your games. If you don't have one of the top 12 or so you are streaming TEs, it's mandatory at that point (and I'd argue mandatory once you're below the top ~6).

Also depth charts actually mean something for these positions. The WR1 on any team other than the niners is going to be startable most weeks, maybe not a great producer but at least startable in the FLEX. Whereas the TE1s on at least half the NFL teams are unstartable most weeks.

Essentially this all comes back to a basic question of positional scarcity, but every-week-startable TEs are so scarce (I argued before there's approximately three to five of them) that if you can't snag one at an appropriate round, then gently caress drafting a TE before the mid-late rounds.

# ? Feb 10, 2017 02:08

Sataere: Jul 20, 2005; Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me

Leperflesh posted:

You're also going to draft a lot more RBs and WRs, which lets you spread your risk. And even a mediocre mid-range QB is going to throw some passes every week and get you a few points, whereas a mediocre mid-range TE may get you zeros for half your games. If you don't have one of the top 12 or so you are streaming TEs, it's mandatory at that point (and I'd argue mandatory once you're below the top ~6).

Also depth charts actually mean something for these positions. The WR1 on any team other than the niners is going to be startable most weeks, maybe not a great producer but at least startable in the FLEX. Whereas the TE1s on at least half the NFL teams are unstartable most weeks.

Essentially this all comes back to a basic question of positional scarcity, but every-week-startable TEs are so scarce (I argued before there's approximately three to five of them) that if you can't snag one at an appropriate round, then gently caress drafting a TE before the mid-late rounds.

Lol, it's been so long that I've forgottenwhat point I was trying to make.

# ? Feb 10, 2017 04:06

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

Lottery tickets work best when you get a lot of them.

# ? Feb 10, 2017 19:00

Leperflesh: May 17, 2007

Actually for real-life actual lottery tickets that's a path to the poorhouse so I'm starting to wonder if lottery tickets are actually a good strat in fantasy football, either. I think next year I'm gonna stick to 100% safe bets even if it means overdrafting them and I'll see how that goes.

# ? Feb 10, 2017 19:02

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

You should get 2-3 high variance WRs for your third WR slot and play the matchups until you kill yourself week 8 because you can't choose right.

# ? Feb 10, 2017 19:09

Teemu Pokemon: Jun 19, 2004; To sign them is my real test

With full no movement clause

You should draft just TEs with all your picks and then trade them when everyone else is starting Will Tye and Mercedes Lewis

# ? Feb 10, 2017 21:39

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Why would I trade for a te when I have will tye tho

# ? Feb 10, 2017 21:49

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

Leperflesh posted:

Actually for real-life actual lottery tickets that's a path to the poorhouse so I'm starting to wonder if lottery tickets are actually a good strat in fantasy football, either. I think next year I'm gonna stick to 100% safe bets even if it means overdrafting them and I'll see how that goes.

What I mean is that every draft pick is a lottery pick. You can draft David Johnson or you could get Todd Gurley. That's why I am learning to avoid using early picks on positions that only require one player (TE, QB), and instead will be focusing on filling up WR and RB before grabbing a few QBs and a late round TE.

# ? Feb 10, 2017 22:53

Leperflesh: May 17, 2007

Ehh. I think there's a difference between the basic randomness inherent in fantasy football applicable to every player, and a "lottery ticket." Implicit in the term is the very long odds but with a huge payoff if you win. A gamble you expect to not pay out almost every time, but every once in a while you get extraordinarily lucky and it wins you your season.

That's not the same as a guy that most people would agree is a solid starter pick at the beginning of the season, and then due to the normal vagaries of fantasy football, they don't work out. I think a guy like Todd Gurley was a risk, but I wouldn't have rated him as a lottery ticket. Just more of a coinflip guy who came up tails this year mostly due to his situation (on a garbage team).

# ? Feb 10, 2017 23:18

Teemu Pokemon: Jun 19, 2004; To sign them is my real test

With full no movement clause

Beer4TheBeerGod posted:

What I mean is that every draft pick is a lottery pick. You can draft David Johnson or you could get Todd Gurley. That's why I am learning to avoid using early picks on positions that only require one player (TE, QB), and instead will be focusing on filling up WR and RB before grabbing a few QBs and a late round TE.

*holds envelope to head*

Things I've been saying for the last four years

# ? Feb 10, 2017 23:20

Ben Nevis: Jan 20, 2011

2017 is the year of Austin Seferian-Jenkins. Book it.

# ? Feb 11, 2017 00:03

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Ben Nevis posted:

2017 is the year of Austin Seferian-Jenkins. Book it.

# ? Feb 11, 2017 00:05

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

Teemu Pokemon posted:

*holds envelope to head*

Things I've been saying for the last four years

At this point "early picks" is going to mean single digit rounds.

# ? Feb 26, 2017 16:48

Teemu Pokemon: Jun 19, 2004; To sign them is my real test

With full no movement clause

Well, yeah, I have no problem grabbing a TE before the last 2 or 3 rounds if a guy I like falls, but that usually doesn't happen so my MO is gently caress TEs. Eifert was that guy two years ago, but the word got out on him late and I was only able to grab him in 1 of 4 leagues. I ended up with Barnidge and Watson in the other 3 and wasn't really any worse for wear with punting TEs

"What I've been saying for 4 years" is that because you need to fill at least 2 RB, 2 WR, and a flex vs. 1 TE, it doesn't make sense to waste dart throws on a position that a) only has 4-7 good players b) only has one positional requirement instead of 5

e: any TE past end-of-season TE5 or so is replacement level, meanwhile every RB3/WR4 in your league is at least a bye week starter, so why wouldn't you want to load up on those guys instead of stretching your odds even thinner by adding a TE into the mix? Before round 10, it's Gronk or bust

Teemu Pokemon fucked around with this message at 17:08 on Feb 26, 2017

# ? Feb 26, 2017 17:00

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Also:

If you draft RB7 and he ends up RB15, he's still a weekly starter for you.

If you draft TE7 and he ends up TE15, he's replacement level trash.

# ? Feb 26, 2017 19:33

ubiquitous rex: Oct 28, 2003; Mullet power!

Is it worth flipping my Alshon Jeffrey for Thomas Rawls and an improved draft pick in my keeper league? My other keeper WRs are AJ green and Allen Robinson, and my only decent RB is lamar Miller.

# ? Mar 1, 2017 05:04

Sataere: Jul 20, 2005; Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me

ubiquitous rex posted:

Is it worth flipping my Alshon Jeffrey for Thomas Rawls and an improved draft pick in my keeper league? My other keeper WRs are AJ green and Allen Robinson, and my only decent RB is lamar Miller.

Details. How many players, what scoring settings. What starts. Where are you drafting and how would it improve.

My gut says no, but I need more information.

# ? Mar 1, 2017 20:43

Quarterroys: Jul 1, 2008

I say no as well. Right now, Alshon is undervalued due to a down year, and is potentially moving on in free agency as the Bears opted not to place the franchise tag on him. Alshon has a history of WR1 production, and while injuries are a concern, I wouldn't sell low on him at this point.

I expect he'll regress to the mean and have a bounceback WR1 year in 2017 (as he has historically), assuming he stays somewhat healthy/clean from PEDs. If you're concerned about either of those things impacting his future value, at least wait to trade him away until free agency opens next week (3/9). If Alshon lands with a new team, he may get some increased hype a la Lamar Miller last year, and carry more trade value.

# ? Mar 1, 2017 22:06

Benne: Sep 2, 2011; STOP DOING HEROIN

ubiquitous rex posted:

Is it worth flipping my Alshon Jeffrey for Thomas Rawls and an improved draft pick in my keeper league? My other keeper WRs are AJ green and Allen Robinson, and my only decent RB is lamar Miller.

I would wait and see what team Jeffery lands with before doing anything with him. Moving him right now would just be selling low, he's an easy bounce-back candidate.

# ? Mar 2, 2017 04:42

Benne: Sep 2, 2011; STOP DOING HEROIN

Let's breathe some life back into this thread by doing some way-too-early draft speculation!

Here's what the first-round ADP looks like on FF Calculator:

code:

1. David Johnson
2. Le'Veon Bell
3. Ezekiel Elliott
4. Odell Beckham Jr.
5. Antonio Brown
6. Julio Jones
7. LeSean McCoy
8. Mike Evans
9. Devonta Freeman
10. Melvin Gordon
11. Jordan Howard
12. A.J. Green

Top 3 seems about right to me, though you can easily haggle over who should be where. First immediate takeaway is that RBs will be back in vogue after a year or two of ZERO RB STRATEGY dominating the conversation. I guess that was inevitable after DJ and Zeke lived up to the hype, and Howard came out of nowhere to be a waiver wire hero. I'm iffy about Devonta in the first with Tevin Coleman still hanging around, though.

Second round!

code:

13. Jordy Nelson
14. DeMarco Murray
15. Jay Ajayi
16. T.Y. Hilton
17. Todd Gurley
18. Dez Bryant
19. Lamar Miller
20. Michael Thomas
21. Carlos Hyde
22. Aaron Rodgers
23. Rob Gronkowski
24. Amari Cooper

Honestly thought Ajayi would be higher. People still believe in Gurley, but unless the Rams make significant offensive upgrades he's on my "do not draft" list at the moment. Miller is an eternal steal in the middle of the second round. I'll always be happy drafting Hilton and Dez at their respective spots.

Third round!

code:

25. Mark Ingram
26. C.J. Anderson
27. DeAndre Hopkins
28. Davante Adams
29. Adrian Peterson
30. Tom Brady
31. Keenan Allen
32. Latavius Murray
33. Thomas Rawls
34. Spencer Ware
35. Brandin Cooks
36. Tyreek Hill

Godspeed to the next fool who convinces himself "this is the year for CJA." Peterson might be washed and I fully expect his ADP to drop like a stone over the months. Latavius is a weird case -- he's shown moments of brilliance, but barely cracking 4.0 YPA behind the Raiders' line is not a good sign. Wanna see what team he goes to next before I make a serious evaluation. Tyreek is one of this year's biggest candidates to be overdrafted.

Anyone else got hot takes on this?

# ? Mar 2, 2017 05:00

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# ? May 23, 2024 13:26

Matt Zerella: Oct 7, 2002; Norris'es are back baby. It's good again. Awoouu (fox Howl)

My hot take is "Lesean McCoy in the 1st round: no thanks"

# ? Mar 2, 2017 05:04

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > The Armchair Quarterback > Fantasy Football 2016: There is no god. Existence is a joke

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