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Bloops Crusts posted:Is that Corbyn's lovely opinion too? We need to get out of the EU so we can raise tariffs and return to a protectionist economy, because that's pro-worker or something, any anyone who disagrees is a stupid neoliberal? the EU is a protectionist economy. Not as much as America or China but it still is. It also is responsible for imposing austerity on its members. That said, it's better than the alternative and that was Corbyn's stance in the referendum quote:The EU is the future of the world. It's peace between nations, no borders or boundaries, people from all over uniting in common interest to take a stand for democracy and liberalism against more shadowy corners of the world, like Russia and China. lol quote:Just seems like the people in charge of Labor are a bunch of asshats. They're pulling a Hillary, going along with whatever the popular mood is at the moment, being totally lame and uninspiring, and not trying to sell people on an alternative vision. you're probably the first person to accuse Corbyn of chasing the popular mood. quote:gently caress, if Labor won't do it, why aren't the LibDems? What the hell are they doing right now? Why haven't they cast themselves as the Remain party and rallied the 49% who voted Remain to their cause? being the party of remain is pretty much all they stand for right now. They're soaring into the high single digits in the polls quote:I'm no expert on UK politics really? quote:but it seems to me if there were anybody smart in charge over there, they could cultivate that vision, tend it and nurture in, inspire passion in the populace, and exploit it for incredible political gain. Where the hell is the pro-EU leadership in Britain? the way the remain vote is concentrated in areas like London, Scotland and Northern Ireland makes that a difficult strategy to pull off. Particularly as the British parties don't run in N. Ireland except for UKIP and Scotland is solidly SNP. It's a strategy the Lib Dems, for whom winning every remain seat in England & Wales would represent their best ever performance at a general election, can risk, but for Labour only winning those seats would be an unmitigated disaster. 65 AD: Nero kills his pregnant wife by kicking her in the stomach
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Feb 10, 2017 08:57
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Lib Dems have 15% of Remain voters. The Conservatives have more Remain voters than they do.
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Feb 10, 2017 09:00
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Baron Corbyn posted:the EU is a protectionist economy. Not as much as America or China but it still is. It also is responsible for imposing austerity on its members. That said, it's better than the alternative and that was Corbyn's stance in the referendum That's the nicest thing I've ever heard anyone say of the EU.
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Feb 10, 2017 09:01
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Remember that the reason Brexit is happening is that both the Conservatives and Labour have spent much of the last 15 years blaming the EU for pretty much everything possible. And blaming immigrants for the rest. One person blaming the EU for crop circles is a Also, while we enjoy laughing at the lunacy and stupidity of leaning-far-right politicians in this country (remember "What happens when renewable energy runs out?"), they don't get widely reported on.
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Feb 10, 2017 09:29
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Jeremy Hunt on winter pressuresgrauniad posted:The health secretary said there was “no excuse” for some of the problems being seen in the health service and that some of the care being offered was not what anyone would want for theirfamily. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/10/jeremy-hunt-nhs-problems-completely-unacceptable
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Feb 10, 2017 09:56
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Baron Corbyn posted:The way the remain vote is concentrated in areas like London, Scotland and Northern Ireland makes that a difficult strategy to pull off. Particularly as the British parties don't run in N. Ireland except for UKIP and Scotland is solidly SNP. It's a strategy the Lib Dems, for whom winning every remain seat in England & Wales would represent their best ever performance at a general election, can risk, but for Labour only winning those seats would be an unmitigated disaster. Although I underatand your point and agree to an extent, it depends how motivated those voters are. A few of the huge Lib Dem swings we've seen were not in remain areas. Equally there has been no discernable UKIP surge to date. A lot of leave voters hadn't voted in a long while. It will be very interesting to see how many return to that pattern at a GE, and also how many revert to party, by-election style. It is not inconceivable at all that constituencies that voted leave will have a majority remain turnout at a GE.
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Feb 10, 2017 09:57
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Fans posted:Lib Dems have 15% of Remain voters. The Conservatives have more Remain voters than they do. Also they couldn't even get all of their 9 (nine) MPs to block the Article 50 As for the Dems in the US, Labour is not doing nearly as badly as the Democrats currently are - the Tories over here have the slimmest of majorities only propped up by making promises to the DUP, having an insane disciplinarian as PM and a stranglehold on the traditional media. The Democrats have handed almost all of the US over to the Republicans thanks to being completely inept at running electoral campaigns, as opposed to the only thing they care about, the Presidential election, where they were only mostly inept. The US Dems are at the "pre-Corbyn" stage, where the left of the party isn't really being seen as a viable threat to the neoliberal. If a true leftist looks like they are gaining power holy poo poo you are going to see the knives come out in a way that makes Labour's current problems look like a picnic by comparison.
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Feb 10, 2017 10:00
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Zalakwe posted:A few of the huge Lib Dem swings we've seen were not in remain areas. Noted Leave and Labour strongholds, Sleaford and Richmond-on-Trent
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Feb 10, 2017 10:01
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Zalakwe posted:Although I underatand your point and agree to an extent, it depends how motivated those voters are. A few of the huge Lib Dem swings we've seen were not in remain areas. Equally there has been no discernable UKIP surge to date. A lot of leave voters hadn't voted in a long while. It will be very interesting to see how many return to that pattern at a GE, and also how many revert to party, by-election style. It is not inconceivable at all that constituencies that voted leave will have a majority remain turnout at a GE. I wouldn't expect a UKIP surge. They're a single issue party who've achieved their aim and the Tories are a more seriously regarded party who have taken up hard brexit as an aim.
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Feb 10, 2017 10:16
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MikeCrotch posted:Noted Leave and Labour strongholds, Sleaford and Richmond-on-Trent I assume he's talking about council by elections but I wouldn't read much into those. The polling has shown consistently that the Tories are the big winners from the Brexit fallout, Labour are the big losers and everyone else is more or less where they were.
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Feb 10, 2017 10:18
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Looke posted:Jeremy Hunt on winter pressures 
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Feb 10, 2017 10:18
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Baron Corbyn posted:I wouldn't expect a UKIP surge. They're a single issue party who've achieved their aim and the Tories are a more seriously regarded party who have taken up hard brexit as an aim. UKIP are the most serially under performing party relative to media hype and expectations. The Independent posted:According to Labour’s own polling, a 15,000-majority could come down to as little as 1,000. A less overtly political source, the bookies, have brought Ukip’s odds down from 20/1 to 2/1. Oh.
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Feb 10, 2017 10:22
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Baron Corbyn posted:I wouldn't expect a UKIP surge. They're a single issue party who've achieved their aim and the Tories are a more seriously regarded party who have taken up hard brexit as an aim. UKIP are going from strength to strength in the east, trust me, they're trying to firmly establish themselves as the party of the working class.
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Feb 10, 2017 10:22
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I can't get enough of are Dan
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Lord of the Llamas posted:UKIP are the most serially under performing party relative to media hype and expectations. Yeah, I fully expect them to get a similar result in Stoke. HJB posted:UKIP are going from strength to strength in the east, trust me, they're trying to firmly establish themselves as the party of the working class. They're trying that, yeah. I'll believe they're succeeding when I see it. Barring massive electoral reform, they're going to struggle to get more MPs.
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Feb 10, 2017 10:26
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Looke posted:Jeremy Hunt on winter pressures Oh good, starve the beast is moving onto stage 2. Or 3. I forget what stage is what but the point is, plan is proceeding as intended. Bloops Crusts posted:Is that Corbyn's lovely opinion too? We need to get out of the EU so we can raise tariffs and return to a protectionist economy, because that's pro-worker or something, any anyone who disagrees is a stupid neoliberal? The EU is the future of the world. It's peace between nations, no borders or boundaries, people from all over uniting in common interest to take a stand for democracy and liberalism against more shadowy corners of the world, like Russia and China. Just seems like the people in charge of Labor are a bunch of asshats. They're pulling a Hillary, going along with whatever the popular mood is at the moment, being totally lame and uninspiring, and not trying to sell people on an alternative vision. gently caress, if Labor won't do it, why aren't the LibDems? What the hell are they doing right now? Why haven't they cast themselves as the Remain party and rallied the 49% who voted Remain to their cause? I'm no expert on UK politics, but it seems to me if there were anybody smart in charge over there, they could cultivate that vision, tend it and nurture in, inspire passion in the populace, and exploit it for incredible political gain. Where the hell is the pro-EU leadership in Britain? Hi friend. Liberalism is a terrible ideology and you should feel bad for being a liberal. Go join the DSA, get your self educated. HJB posted:UKIP are going from strength to strength in the east, trust me, they're trying to firmly establish themselves as the party of the working class. Kind of hard to do when you're a bunch of a lunatic libertarians though.
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Feb 10, 2017 10:27
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Baron Corbyn posted:They're trying that, yeah. I'll believe they're succeeding when I see it. Barring massive electoral reform, they're going to struggle to get more MPs. It's true they're not going to oust the Tories any time soon.
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Feb 10, 2017 10:31
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MikeCrotch posted:Noted Leave and Labour strongholds, Sleaford and Richmond-on-Trent By COP 2016 19 of the 26 Liberal Democrat council by-election gains since Brexit had been in leave areas. They mainly seem to be taking seats off the Conservatives, although not exclusively. I know another party that might like to do that.... Liberal Democrats GAIN Astley on North Norfolk from Con Liberal Democrats GAIN St. Teath and St. Breward on Cornwall from Ind Liberal Democrats GAIN Trowbridge, Grove on Wiltshire from Ind Liberal Democrats GAIN Newquay, Treviglas on Cornwall from UKIP Liberal Democrats GAIN Westone on Northampton from Con Liberal Democrats GAIN Newlyn and Goonhaven on Cornwall from Con Liberal Democrats GAIN Alston Moor on Eden from Con Liberal Democrats GAIN Four Lanes on Cornwall from UKIP Liberal Democrats GAIN Mosborough on Sheffield from Lab Liberal Democrats GAIN Tupton on North East Derbyshire from Lab Liberal Democrats GAIN Hadleigh on Suffolk from Con Liberal Democrats GAIN Teignmouth Central on Teignbridge from Con Liberal Democrats GAIN Adeyfield West on Dacorum from Con Liberal Democrats GAIN Broadstone on Poole from Con Liberal Democrats GAIN St. Mary’s on the East Riding of Yorkshire from Con Liberal Democrats GAIN Southbourne on Chichester from Con Liberal Democrats GAIN Blackdown on Taunton Deane from Con Liberal Democrats GAIN Bovey on Teignbridge from Con Liberal Democrats GAIN Chudleigh on Teignbridge from Con Baron Corbyn posted:I assume he's talking about council by elections but I wouldn't read much into those. The polling has shown consistently that the Tories are the big winners from the Brexit fallout, Labour are the big losers and everyone else is more or less where they were. Yes I was. They are not the be all and end all but they can tell us a lot about how motivated activists and supporters are. Activists by most models can be worth up to 5% in any given constituency at a GE - source: fighting lots of election campaigns and using the models personally. Makes you wonder where the other 35% odd percent is coming from in these swings, Brexit is likely motivating a lot of people. Zalakwe fucked around with this message at 11:00 on Feb 10, 2017 |
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Feb 10, 2017 10:41
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hakimashou posted:Corbyn has done such a bad job leading the labour party that people think yeah, it is it. It might have been the worst thing he could have done in an impossible situation, yeah, how does one go from that to drawing the conclusion Labour will be worse for the NHS than people actively sabotaging it?
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Feb 10, 2017 10:43
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BizarroAzrael posted:It might have been the worst thing he could have done in an impossible situation, yeah, how does one go from that to drawing the conclusion Labour will be worse for the NHS than people actively sabotaging it? By not responding to shitposters.
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Feb 10, 2017 10:45
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People trusted the NHS in David Cameron's hands more than they trusted it in Ed Miliband's. It's not new.
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Feb 10, 2017 11:02
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Gonzo McFee posted:People trusted the NHS in David Cameron's hands more than they trusted it in Ed Miliband's. It's not new. Deploying the dead kid helped.
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Feb 10, 2017 11:04
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The political power of appearing decisive even if all your decisions are terrible
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Feb 10, 2017 11:06
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Bloops Crusts posted:American here. Just popping in because I don't understand your loving country and maybe one of you can explain it to me. Over here on this side of the pond, since the Trumpocalypse, the Democrats are rallying, there's protests in the streets, people are pissed. The liberal party is standing up to Trump like a solid phalanx, shoulder to shoulder and elbows locked. But every time I check on what's going on over there in the UK, come to find Labor's pissed it all away again. 2) Unlike the Cheeto-in-Chief, a narrow majority of the country supports Brexit, because they are idiots; also May's polls are much better than Trump's (not that that's hard, but still) and she is a less divisive figure 3) Labour are poo poo / their voters are divided - support for Brexit is most strongly predicted by age and education and it cuts across party voting lines significantly, especially for Labour, which is these days a party of liberal city dwellers welded to a shrinking bloc of less-educated, poorer working-class supporters and, generally speaking, those two groups have opposite opinions about Brexit 4) 70% of our media have been printing outright lies and bollocks about those MEDDLING BRUSSELS EUROCRATS for 25 years at this point and politicians have used it as a convenient thing to blame whenever anything goes wrong. Imagine if Breitbart and Fox News accounted for 70% of US media consumption over the past three decades. Those chickens have come right the gently caress home to roost. 5) Britain is fundamentally poo poo and stupid and 70 years later, many of its inhabitants still haven't fully come to terms with the fact that it is now a moderately-sized island off the coast of Europe rather than a world-bestriding imperial colossus. Zephro fucked around with this message at 11:11 on Feb 10, 2017 |
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Feb 10, 2017 11:09
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Can't speak for Stoke but I think Labour will get dry bummed in Copeland, given I live and work in an adjacent constituency. The Labour candidate wouldn't even speak to the news during the week, actively running away. My constituency (Barrow and Furness) has been a safe Labour seat for a long time except for a couple of years where Labour went CND and the Tories swept to victory on a pro shipyard promise. I think the next time this constituency is contested it will be close, as you can imagine, in a county completely dependant on the money Trident and Sellafield bring Corbyn isn't the most popular figure. I have been a trade unionist for a long time but only joined the Labour Party recently, but even as a idealist left winger with no children (before I get mocked for that, I have noted and indeed been told that views are likely to change when you have kids) I am losing faith in Labour. As others have pointed out they can't even mount a credible opposition right now, so how they will win an election I don't know. Another potential decade of Tory free for all and I think irreparable damage will be done. On Brexit, I'm not surprised Labour are struggling and I do have some sympathy on that front. People in this thread keep pointing out 'majority of Labour voters voted remain' but that seems to overlook all the voters Labour have already lost who did not. For instance in safe seats that are having their majorities eroded. When a General Election comes around I do think Labour needs to offer starkly different policies to the stories to stand a chance: one thing that struck me after the last election was an intelligent friend shrugging and saying "why would I vote for the party that ran on a policy of 'we'll do austerity but not as well'". Unfortunately competence seems to resonate more than policy with some people, and Labour haven't looked competent for a while now.
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Feb 10, 2017 11:09
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people are idiots
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Feb 10, 2017 11:10
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Zalakwe posted:By COP 2016 19 of the 26 Liberal Democrat council by-election gains since Brexit had been in leave areas. They mainly seem to be taking seats off the Conservatives, although not exclusively. I know another party that might like to do that.... Even in "leave" areas you can have a good 30-40% remain voters and those won't be distributed randomly across an area so there's a decent chance you'll get council by-election gains in those places. You have to remember the Lib Dems are coming back from an extremely low watermark and they will have held many of those seat gains at some point in the not distant past. Big "swings" in by-elections are very misleading due to turnout being low, especially in council by-elections. The so called swing vote is much less important than ensuring your base turns out reliably and is supplemented by the tactical voters in these circumstances. The Lib Dems are especially reliant on the tactical voters. Even given the catastrophic results of 2015 (so you might expect mostly die hard supporters left) the LDs polling stats for their 2015 voters consistently show they have the lowest retention and highest undecided rates.
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Feb 10, 2017 11:13
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This gets mocked a lot but the literal founding principle of the EU was "if we integrate economically and politically maybe we can stop drowning Europe in a tide of blood every thirty years" and I think that is a pretty good ideal 
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Feb 10, 2017 11:14
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Bloops Crusts posted:I guess what I'm really wondering is why isn't there a grassroots movement to stop it? Speaking for myself, I'm strongly in favor of a united Europe, and I think the UK getting divorced from the EU is just about the most tragic thing in the world. I'd be out there knocking on doors, making phone calls, sitting down with my aunts and uncles in the countryside trying to talk them into changing their minds, harassing my MPs every single week and telling all my friends to do the same -- creating a movement. It just seems like Britons are so bored and disinterested in the whole thing. I know the UK has always been pretty euroskeptic, but beyond even that, there hardly seems to be any passion for the European project whatsoever. Not enough to motivate people to really take a stand against Leave, and as a result it seems like you're really allowing the Tories to stage a huge loving coup and put Labor six feet under for the next decade. It's a strange situation because many of the hard right are anti-Europe too, so where is your highly motivated pro-EU bloc going to come from? Agitated bankers?
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Feb 10, 2017 11:16
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Lord of the Llamas posted:Even in "leave" areas you can have a good 30-40% remain voters and those won't be distributed randomly across an area so there's a decent chance you'll get council by-election gains in those places. You have to remember the Lib Dems are coming back from an extremely low watermark and they will have held many of those seat gains at some point in the not distant past. Big "swings" in by-elections are very misleading due to turnout being low, especially in council by-elections. The so called swing vote is much less important than ensuring your base turns out reliably and is supplemented by the tactical voters in these circumstances. The Lib Dems are especially reliant on the tactical voters. Even given the catastrophic results of 2015 (so you might expect mostly die hard supporters left) the LDs polling stats for their 2015 voters consistently show they have the lowest retention and highest undecided rates. All of what you've said is fairly standard stuff and I don't disagree, although there are a few in there where the LDs haven't had a sniff previously and even came from a lost deposit position. None of it contradicts my central point though, remain voters are a valuable and very motivated constituency that is winning people elections.
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Feb 10, 2017 11:19
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hand-fed baby bird posted:Deploying the dead kid helped. Even before his son had died he was using him to shut down debate on Tory attitudes towards disabled people, going so far as to claim that he knew what it was like to claim for DLA despite being a millionaire and then going on to massively cut DLA for people far poorer than himself.
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Feb 10, 2017 11:21
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Zephro posted:1) there have been (some) big protests This is pretty much as well as I've seen it put. gently caress this stupid rainy fascist island.
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Feb 10, 2017 11:30
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Zalakwe posted:All of what you've said is fairly standard stuff and I don't disagree, although there are a few in there where the LDs haven't had a sniff previously and even came from a lost deposit position. None of it contradicts my central point though, remain voters are a valuable and very motivated constituency that is winning people elections. Oh definitely, it's basically been the counterweight to the "ugh coalition" effect they suffered in 2015. I think one of the main reasons TM hasn't been gagging for a general election is that the Tories aren't sure that they won't end up losing dozens of seats they gained in 2015 back to the LDs due to angry remain voters. I don't even think that the Tories will gain much from Labour if they can't win over the hardcore 10-15% of UKIP voters. Stoke is definitely going to be an interesting result and will tell us a lot about how the Brexiters are. To be honest I think one possible scenario there is a narrow LD victory (i.e. with under 30%) with the vote split 4 ways between all the parties. But I still think the most likely outcome is UKIP to massively under perform and a narrow Labour hold over the Tories.
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Feb 10, 2017 11:33
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Zephro posted:5) Britain is fundamentally poo poo and stupid and 70 years later, many of its inhabitants still haven't fully come to terms with the fact that it is now a moderately-sized island off the coast of Europe rather than a world-bestriding imperial colossus. If there is one thing I want Brexit to achieve, it is accelerating the end of the empire mentality. It won't be fast, but losing this pathetically giant chip on our collective shoulders might be helped along a bit when Britain has spent a decade and a bit in the wild, finally getting what it wants and nothing getting better, nor any interest whatsoever on the part of younger people in returning culturally to Wot Made Britane Grate. Bit of a long game that one, I will admit.
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Feb 10, 2017 11:34
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Bacon Terrorist posted:one thing that struck me after the last election was an intelligent friend shrugging and saying "why would I vote for the party that ran on a policy of 'we'll do austerity but not as well'". Yeah, this was the story of my life last election. Perceptibly there was no difference between Labour and the Tories; they were both pro-austerity, anti-benefits and migration parties, just one looked shuffling and awkward about it. I voted Labour, but I wasn't surprised it wasn't a rallying cry.
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Feb 10, 2017 11:55
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https://twitter.com/theobertram/status/829961986519728128 No doubt Corbyn fans think these are "fake polls" or some such.
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Feb 10, 2017 12:09
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^^^bad ratings for Corbyn? No way!Zalakwe posted:Brexit is likely motivating a lot of people. To do what though? Vote in a Lib Dem councillor = ??? baka kaba fucked around with this message at 12:12 on Feb 10, 2017 |
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Feb 10, 2017 12:09
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Grouch posted:https://twitter.com/theobertram/status/829961986519728128 It's hardly the most surprising development. In fact I'd go so far as to say it's totally expected. He cannot be long for the job.
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Feb 10, 2017 12:18
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Grouch posted:https://twitter.com/theobertram/status/829961986519728128 RIP the left the PLP had a chance to change direction and they hosed it with gleeful help from the media. socialism is over in the UK. goodbye NHS.
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Feb 10, 2017 12:18
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baka kaba posted:^^^bad ratings for Corbyn? No way! Or MP. So far. It's a wonder no-one has given them anything better to get behind.
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Feb 10, 2017 12:21
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I saw that poll and didn't think of posting it because I didn't think Corbyn continuing to be really unpopular would surprise anyone in this thread.  If you want the rest of the data looking at how people feel about the parties (not just the leaders), EU, Trump, Nuttall etc here you go; Nearly one in five Brits now have a favourable view of Donald Trump
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