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No one should have faith in the Capitals' ability to win in the playoffs because of their history (OTOH Trump is president and the Cubs just won a World Series so anything can happen). But it's also reasonable to say that this is probably the best team they have ever had in the regular season despite having two seasons of 120+ points in the past 7 years or whatever. Their PDO will come back to Earth but their underlying play has been excellent for months (unlike last season) and I think it's reasonable to expect them to maintain a higher than 100 PDO given the quality of their goaltending and shooters. Mind_Taker fucked around with this message at 17:48 on Feb 10, 2017 |
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Feb 10, 2017 17:46
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Mind_Taker posted:No one should have faith in the Capitals' ability to win in the playoffs because of their history (OTOH Trump is president and the Cubs just won a World Series so anything can happen). Yeah but that's what every team with a high PDO says  Also just means they're due for regression riiiiiiiiiiiiight around the time the playoffs start
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Feb 10, 2017 18:13
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Speaking of high PDO holy crap JT Miller
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Feb 10, 2017 18:14
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I don't think have any statistical evidence to back this up so this is basically talking out of my rear end but one thing that always bothers me about the Caps and playoff hockey is they're not that fast a team so when it's the playoffs and everyone is going 100% all the time that seems like it hurts them more than it might other teams. The Pens gave the Caps absolute fits last year with their speed. The Pens used to have that problem too where younger and faster (but not necessarily more talented) teams would give them nightmares in the playoffs when everyone was going full bore all the time because their own team speed wasn't so great. It's not necessarily crippling. For all that the Caps still gave the Pens by far the hardest time they had last year in the playoffs. I know Pens/Tampa went 7 but that was basically all Vasilevsky going into jesus mode and the Pens out shot them every single game iirc. The Caps were the only team last year that fared well against the Pens in terms of possession.
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Feb 10, 2017 18:30
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It doesn't make a ton of sense for me to say this but the Caps D and goaltending just never really frighten me that much? I dunno. They have good D and Holtby is good but I've never felt like "oh no the Caps are just gonna lock this poo poo down and it's so hard to score against them ever" I assume they aren't relying on the power play as much this season though
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Feb 10, 2017 18:53
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The only knock on the Caps' D that I can think of is that they don't have that clear #1 Doughty/Keith/Letang guy like most cup teams, but their D group seems pretty well rounded and their forwards are so good I'm not sure it really matters.Ginette Reno posted:I don't think have any statistical evidence to back this up so this is basically talking out of my rear end but one thing that always bothers me about the Caps and playoff hockey is they're not that fast a team so when it's the playoffs and everyone is going 100% all the time that seems like it hurts them more than it might other teams. The Pens gave the Caps absolute fits last year with their speed. The only thing that makes me think the Pens could beat the Caps is the possibility that the Penguins are just trying to cruise through the regular season. I don't know if they legitimately changed their system, the league figured them out or began catching up to them in terms of speed, or they just don't care enough to put in 100% effort, but they've never really consistently looked like they did down the stretch and in the playoffs last season. I feel like a lot of their deficiencies this season are down to not putting enough effort into certain things like backchecking or skating hard to win footraces, but I don't know, can a team really turn it on on demand? Of course the Penguins could also beat the Caps in some crazy series where they get shutout like 3 times and then win a bunch of wild track meet games too.
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Feb 10, 2017 19:15
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Pornographic Memory posted:The only knock on the Caps' D that I can think of is that they don't have that clear #1 Doughty/Keith/Letang guy like most cup teams, but their D group seems pretty well rounded and their forwards are so good I'm not sure it really matters. I think the Pens were hot and everything was clicking last season. Usually that doesn't last indefinitely and things that were just working naturally last season may not be working as easily this season. They could get hot again, who knows. Playoffs are almost always about getting hot at the right time
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Feb 10, 2017 19:21
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It's not like the Pens look bad. They lead the league in scoring and this despite injuries to key players at various points in the season. It's mainly their defensive play that has been lacking, but the overall record is still great so it's hard to complain too much. They'd normally be in first place with the record they have but this year the Metro is so good that the Rangers who have a fantastic 35-18-1 record are in fourth place.
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Feb 10, 2017 19:27
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I've watched the Caps since the mid-80s and the team over the last 2 months is better than any Caps team I've ever seen, taking into account the complete game they're playing. Individual players and lines on teams from the past have been more impressive, but this team has it clicking throughout the roster. They're flying very high and are going to regress in a few areas where they've been performing unsustainably, but it's still a very good, well built team with as good a chance as anyone in the playoffs. The past has almost nothing to do with it, but there's definitely no guarantees; good and even great teams still lose in the playoffs. Many of the Caps post-season failures have been shockingly close with "inevitable collapses" coming down to 1 goal over 7 games or 1 bad goalie interference call. This year's team should be a top favorite, but they still have to beat some extremely good and motivated teams. This season has been a ton of fun, but their regression is likely to start right now. One thing they've had amazing luck in is injuries, but the season is starting to add up. Burakovsky is out 4-6 weeks and has been playing really great hockey since he was benched for a couple games in December, Connolly wrenched his ankle last night as he hit career a high, and Beagle has taken a couple rough shot blocks in the past couple games. Oshie missed time earlier (and it showed in the team's performance) as did Carlson; both may be nursing things that could pop up during the final stretch of the season before any of this matters. A week off isn't known to keep goalies hot, and that's here too. We'll see soon enough. This year's team has made great strides to improve the defense and depth scoring, shelter Ovechkin from carrying the whole team on his back, and moved away from reliance on the power-play while still putting in goals. It's nice to look at the playoffs hopefully and the current run is still fun even knowing the next 20 games will almost certainly be less outlandishly dominant.
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Feb 10, 2017 19:28
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Seeing as Holland will make some dumbshit pickup at the trade deadline, keep the streak going for another year, and promptly be eliminated in 5 games in the first round, I would like to see Ovi get a cup. Or CBJ. Either would be cool.
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Feb 10, 2017 19:46
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I don't think the Penguins are coasting so much as they're showing fatigue from playing 106 games last season, having a bunch of people play in the World Cup and getting a late training camp, and then having a week off that tightens the rest of the season. I don't think they aren't good enough to go deep in the playoffs again or even win it all, but I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't.
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Feb 10, 2017 19:48
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Ginette Reno posted:It's not like the Pens look bad. They lead the league in scoring and this despite injuries to key players at various points in the season. It's mainly their defensive play that has been lacking, but the overall record is still great so it's hard to complain too much. They'd normally be in first place with the record they have but this year the Metro is so good that the Rangers who have a fantastic 35-18-1 record are in fourth place. Yeah I don't mean to sound like I'm too down on the Penguins - I think they'd come out on top over any team in the east but the Caps and they'd still be competitive enough to have a shot at winning against the Caps. I'm just wondering to myself out loud where their defensive game went because it was at least average last year on top of an amazing offense, and now it's in the toilet. It's not like Ben Lovejoy was the lynchpin of the defense or something. Or was he?? Maybe the Penguins can win the Cup again even with a defensive game generously described as "poopy" and bring run and gun hockey into vogue again, though, that'd be great. glynnenstein posted:I've watched the Caps since the mid-80s and the team over the last 2 months is better than any Caps team I've ever seen, taking into account the complete game they're playing. Individual players and lines on teams from the past have been more impressive, but this team has it clicking throughout the roster. They're flying very high and are going to regress in a few areas where they've been performing unsustainably, but it's still a very good, well built team with as good a chance as anyone in the playoffs. The past has almost nothing to do with it, but there's definitely no guarantees; good and even great teams still lose in the playoffs. Many of the Caps post-season failures have been shockingly close with "inevitable collapses" coming down to 1 goal over 7 games or 1 bad goalie interference call. This year's team should be a top favorite, but they still have to beat some extremely good and motivated teams. The Caps' luck with injuries so far is pretty insane. https://twitter.com/ManGamesLostNHL/status/827991604036247552 Lowest quality of players lost to injury and the lowest raw man-games lost.
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Feb 10, 2017 19:54
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If it takes anyone way too long like it did for me, they're in the top left.
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Feb 10, 2017 19:56
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 Detroit
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Feb 10, 2017 20:02
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Does Franzen count for Detroit? Is he even expected to play again?
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Feb 10, 2017 20:03
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Larry Brooks wrote a column about an alternate universe where the Rangers were run like the Knicks. I'm now going to have nightmares tonight. http://nypost.com/2017/02/09/what-if-dolans-rangers-were-run-like-the-knicks/ As interesting as it was, I think it would be even better if Dolan wrote a book about it sort of like how OJ almost published his "if I did it here's how I would have done it" book.
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Feb 10, 2017 20:09
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Mike_V posted:Does Franzen count for Detroit? Is he even expected to play again? I'm guessing the guys unofficially retired on LTIR aren't counted because even though Detroit's far and away the injury leader, they're not the only team with one of those guys - Pittsburgh has Dupuis, Arizona has Pronger, and New Jersey has Savard.
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Feb 10, 2017 20:10
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Toronto has Horton and Robidas, so if they were counting those they'd be higher.
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Feb 10, 2017 20:13
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Jovial Cow posted:Larry Brooks wrote a column about an alternate universe where the Rangers were run like the Knicks. I'm now going to have nightmares tonight. Dolan is a great owner for the Rangers because he focuses all his energy on loving up the Knicks and just opens his wallet for the Rangers. Every time I see anything about the Knicks I'm just super glad they exist to distract Dolan from the Rangers. Though a lot of this seems to be Phil Jackson being a gigantic rear end in a top hat for some reason?
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Feb 10, 2017 20:16
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I was at the Rangers-Preds game last night aqnd there was a "Charles Oakley" chant for a little bit. It was funny as hell.
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Feb 10, 2017 20:30
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Dolan is terrible Oakley seems kind of like a crazy person so I'm not sure who I should be cheering for there
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Feb 10, 2017 20:37
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Levitate posted:Dolan is a great owner for the Rangers because he focuses all his energy on loving up the Knicks and just opens his wallet for the Rangers. Every time I see anything about the Knicks I'm just super glad they exist to distract Dolan from the Rangers.
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Feb 10, 2017 20:40
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Pornographic Memory posted:I'm guessing the guys unofficially retired on LTIR aren't counted because even though Detroit's far and away the injury leader, they're not the only team with one of those guys - Pittsburgh has Dupuis, Arizona has Pronger, and New Jersey has Savard.
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Feb 10, 2017 20:41
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I'm rooting for the caps to win the cup because I want them to set the trend of still trying to play hockey even though (and this is the crazy part) you have a 1 goal lead with 19 minutes left in the third. Or if you're a "defensive" team, at all.
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Feb 10, 2017 20:47
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Gio posted:lmao those mega-deals made during the previous CBA were/are so bad. Those weren't really crazy contracts. Just guys who died early.
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Feb 10, 2017 20:52
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pronger might have ended up on the coyotes anyways, he's only got 575k real salary
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Feb 10, 2017 20:59
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Aphrodite posted:Those weren't really crazy contracts. Just guys who died early.
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Feb 10, 2017 21:04
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Spring Break My Heart posted:The Rangers also had a pretty long stretch between 97 and 2006 where they had by far the biggest payroll of any team and never came close to making the playoffs. The salary cap actually helped a lot with this even if Sather took 2 giant shits on his way out (Girardi/Staal contracts). Levitate posted:Dolan is terrible Oakley seems kind of like a crazy person so I'm not sure who I should be cheering for there Oakley owns.
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Feb 10, 2017 21:08
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Aphrodite posted:Those weren't really crazy contracts. Just guys who died early. Looking forward to 2025 when Weber, Suter, and Parise still have $7.5m+ cap hits.
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Feb 10, 2017 21:12
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looking forward to when half the red wings arent on the payroll anymore
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Feb 10, 2017 21:14
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Gio posted:i guess it depends on your definition of a bad contract but a 40+ contract w/ a nearly 5 mil cap hit is pretty bad imo. jagr is at 5.5MM
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Feb 10, 2017 21:22
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hifi posted:jagr is at 5.5MM yeah but thats jagr
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Feb 10, 2017 21:28
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Levitate posted:Dolan is terrible Oakley seems kind of like a crazy person so I'm not sure who I should be cheering for there Not this guy: 
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Feb 10, 2017 21:30
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Gio posted:looking forward to when half the red wings arent on the payroll anymore so 2022
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Feb 10, 2017 21:32
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Teemu Pokemon posted:so 2022 maybe 
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Feb 10, 2017 21:35
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If you get 6 great years, 3 good years and 3 bad years in a 12 year contract then it worked out phenomenally, even though it comes out as "too long" in the end. It's the ones that turned bad in the 3rd year that were the real issue.
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Feb 10, 2017 21:44
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Pornographic Memory posted:I'm guessing the guys unofficially retired on LTIR aren't counted because even though Detroit's far and away the injury leader, they're not the only team with one of those guys - Pittsburgh has Dupuis, Arizona has Pronger, and New Jersey has Savard. Detroit has 2 - they got Joe Vitale from Arizona in the Datsyuk 'trade'.
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Feb 10, 2017 21:50
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Re: Pens vs. Caps talk Right now, they look like the two best teams in the East by a decent margin. Of course, the playoffs are the playoffs and there are no guarantees, but today I'd definitely pick one of WSH or PIT to make it to the SCF. In a head to head match up, it feels like a bit of a coin toss; injuries will play a big part in picking the winner. For me, maybe the biggest question mark is Letang. He's the cornerstone of PIT's transition game and ability to generate offense from defense. With him in the lineup I'd probably be tempted to go all in on homerism and pick PIT over WSH. With no Letang, I lose a lot of my homer confidence. It does seem that WSH has a more balanced lineup across offense and defense than PIT, even more so than last year. I think I posted this earlier, but I have an unfounded suspicion that Sullivan is intentionally keeping HBK apart during the regular season, but that he'll go back to that line pretty quickly come postseason. And I'd be totally on board with this strategy -- obviously the Pens can put together a good enough regular season without HBK, and keeping them apart will only make them that much harder to gameplan against if they show up in the playoffs. Assuming a relatively healthy lineup, the Pens will again be in a position where they have enough scoring depth to keep Crosby, Malkin and Kessel all on separate lines, and IMO this was probably the single most important factor in their Cup last year.
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Feb 10, 2017 22:22
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Yeah the East is Pens/Caps well above the rest right now. I'd want no part of playing Washington.
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Feb 10, 2017 22:32
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Spring Break My Heart posted:The Rangers also had a pretty long stretch between 97 and 2006 where they had by far the biggest payroll of any team and never came close to making the playoffs. Actually I think the Leafs were right up there with them in terms of pay roll (and failure) But yeah in those days everyone felt that Dolan was pressing the team to sign all the star players and do this and do that and it was a big reason why the team failed (I think Neil Smith complained about this on his way out). One theory is that Sather finally convinced him to sell off and rebuild right before the lockout, and when they came out of the lockout Sather started running the team more like a real sports franchise and less like a video game and things started picking up (well that and getting Jagr and his buddies to kick all kinds of rear end and hiring a decent coach). Other people just say the cap protected Sather from himself and forced him to not blow up the team for every over the hill star that came along. I think one thing we have learned is that for one reason or another, Dolan trusted and liked Sather and so eventually gave him the space to run the team the way he wanted to. Dolan hasn't seemed to give the Knicks that kind of space and part of it is probably that he likes basketball more than hockey so he likes meddling in it more, and also that once the Rangers got on track to be pretty successful he was fine with sitting back and letting them take care of themselves. DJExile posted:Yeah the East is Pens/Caps well above the rest right now. I'd want no part of playing Washington. I like to think the Rangers could surprise if they either magically found a great deal for a defenseman, or Girardi suffered a season ending injury and somehow everyone clicked and started playing out of their minds on the blueline.
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Feb 10, 2017 22:44
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