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Kassad posted:Smog and mirrors? China’s steel capacity cuts were fake, report says. Wait, since when are loving Greenpeace credible analysts on the Chinese economy? icantfindaname fucked around with this message at 15:08 on Feb 13, 2017 |
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Feb 13, 2017 15:04
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The "International System" is a lie, you can go to bat for the "Washington Consensus" that's about it.
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Feb 13, 2017 15:57
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icantfindaname posted:Wait, since when are loving Greenpeace credible analysts on the Chinese economy? Greenpeace has a surprisingly big presence in China and they act as a umbrella organization for many of the local environmental organizations. Who do you consider a credible analyst on the Chinese economy?
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Feb 13, 2017 16:27
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caberham posted:But when someone interchangeably uses both terms and equate the government with the people then that's being racist The Chinese government is the biggest offender here.
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Feb 13, 2017 16:33
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It's a bad government
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Feb 13, 2017 16:57
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Some posters here are really bad
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Feb 13, 2017 17:01
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caberham posted:Some posters here are really bad 
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Feb 13, 2017 20:24
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sincx fucked around with this message at 05:43 on Mar 23, 2021 |
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Feb 13, 2017 22:40
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sincx posted:I forgot who mentioned /r/sino, but I just took a look, and the fact that they have /r/hapas listed as one of their affiliated subreddits is all you need to know. That's grim. 
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Feb 13, 2017 23:17
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Ardennes posted:Is it so surprising that rising powers would want a new "international system" once they grew powerful? Why was China destined to follow the rules largely put in place by the US in the first place? It seems hopelessly naive to be "disappointed" in something so predictable. I don't think that's necessarily so. China has benefited greatly from security and market access under the current system. It's reasonable for them to want to take some control of their own economic and security destiny but there's no fundamental reason they couldn't do that by contributing to the system, rather than trying to overthrow it, even just in their immediate neighborhood.
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Feb 13, 2017 23:54
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caberham posted:Some posters here are really bad i disagree, i think some posts are really bad, i don't think any posters are really bad 
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Feb 14, 2017 00:18
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The Great Autismo! posted:i disagree, i think some posts are really bad, i don't think any posters are really bad Counterpoint: Peven Stan
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Feb 14, 2017 00:19
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stone cold posted:Counterpoint: Peven Stan i would like to buy peven stan a bunch of beers at a bar and talk with him about political issues as long as i could get him to promise me that he wouldn't kill me for being a white nerd
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Feb 14, 2017 00:22
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The Great Autismo! posted:i would like to buy peven stan a bunch of beers at a bar and talk with him about political issues as long as i could get him to promise me that he wouldn't kill me for being a white nerd he'd never make that promise though 
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Feb 14, 2017 00:23
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EDIT: Just realized there's a China Economy thread I probably should've thrown this word vomit at. Oh well, my apologies. I've only been in China for two months, so I'm nothing in the realm of an expert, don't want to be, don't pretend to be. I came here last year for a few weeks to visit in-laws for the Spring Festival, so my second Spring Festival just came and went. It's purely my own personal experience and I don't want to try to label China's current economic climate as a whole from just what I've seen, and I don't know how the other Chinagoons feel, but... drat, it's getting a bit bleak out here. My in-laws include a restaurant owner, a real estate mogel wannabe, and an international logistics/trade company owner. My mother-in-law, the restaurant owner, started telling us last year that restaurants were having to tighten belts (her place is cheap and her rent is cheap/free, so she can weather storms like this if not profit from them). This year I can see it - I've seen restaurants open and close in the short time I've been here. I overhear conversations between restaurant owners and staff about what they need to trim from the menu and what changes they need to make (northern food place having to include Yunnan dishes just to stay afloat, for example). And the few restaurants that are open are just empty. I see more people in the wholesale markets and grabbing street food than sitting down in restaurants, and I see fewer people in all of the above than I saw last year. Wholesale prices are dropping and food traders are getting more desperate (they give us free food all the time as they can't sell it, and my MIL is apparently one of the few restaurant owners still able to buy from them at similar amounts). Real estate? Real estate is in the midst of an upheaval out here. One of the richest local tycoons is bankrupt and using court connections (and my in-laws) to sell off his assets, and even the decent assets aren't selling quickly. Plots of land in perfect locations are bare. Hotels are being left half-built (admittedly this was a stupid plan by the tycoon, but still - things in China are half-built but still finished). Property prices are falling quickly. And banks and shadow banks are getting very, very antsy about getting their money (my in-laws had a lovely bout of kidnapping and gang violence against one such bank recently). When the 2008 recession hit I was fairly insulated (being in college), but I could still see local small businesses being bought up by larger companies who weathered that storm and came out with new assets. Here, I'm not even seeing larger companies invest or gobble up little guys - it's simply businesses shuttering, doors closed, signs plastered all over demanding money. Logistics seems to still be doing well, if not better as there are more opportunities to undercut larger companies who are too unwieldy and bloated, but all I do for that aunt is act as an editor for their email correspondence for American trucking/transport. And it's not just business that I feel is in flux. The mood on the street isn't the same. There weren't nearly as many fireworks shot off this year, not nearly as many folks smoking cigarettes at stalls filled with fireworks as they figure out the best bang for the buck, so to speak. There just isn't as much energy, I feel, whether from the small business side or the demand side. The demand for leisure activities is plummeting and parks, spas and the like are at half the prices they had same time last year (outside of the Spring Festival). My wife dragged me out to get a massage and our masseuse (works at a popular local hot spring park, paid similar to commission) was making 13 RMB in a day on GOOD days due to lack of customers, and said she hadn't seen the park so empty in a long time (admittedly we still had trouble finding empty springs - old people gonna soak). And the pollution... Kunming is a relatively clean city, but last year any smog was met with disgust and dismissive comments from my family. This year, they shrug and mutter something along the lines of "Gotta do what you gotta do" - nobody has the financial comfort to complain about the environment anymore! And at least for my in-laws and their connections, everyone knows the economy isn't doing well. They can feel it, they can see it, and they are experiencing the effects. But it's a bit of a taboo topic, especially outside of personal conversation (or maybe they just don't want to talk poo poo about their own country in front of the foreigner, but even my wife gets the same feeling/treatment). There isn't much animosity yet towards me as a foreigner (or maybe I'm too naive to recognize it), but I have a feeling the next year or two will be marked with China either getting backed into economic corners and lashing out (which scares me personally and for what it might entail globally), or Trump getting suckered into deals to help pull China out of its malaise. Neither situation is ideal but at this point I have no clue what China can do to bring itself back up short of getting themselves into a war or getting external help. Though I came out here to help family rather than make money, I have to say... Denver was positively thriving compared to this city, even with a much its smaller population. And it had legal weed.
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Feb 14, 2017 03:59
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Amergin posted:Trump getting suckered into deals to help pull China out of its malaise. Probably this because he caved pretty effortlessly on the Taiwan issue. He already cancelled the TPP so that let off some pressure on China. He's in over his head and I think he realizes that now, he even publicly notes North Korea making him look weak when he's been trying to present himself as a strongman. Xi seems to know what he's doing and I just see him waiting out Trump, getting some concessions, and moving on. This also assumes Trump will still be President in that time, let alone within the year. If he's impeached, Pence will be too busy trying to pass ridiculous laws that not even Republicans will consider. Trump feeds off backlash. If you just ignore him, he tires out and doesn't have anything to use when you talk to him like an ordinary person. The man's entire career is running businesses into the ground while talking about how much of a cocksman he is. He's only able to do it for as long as he has because he started out filthy rich and at least saved a bit to bilk more people into his real estate scheme. His previous partners in Hong Kong also probably have Xi's ear too so he's probably even more of an open book. The real estate market will collapse though and China will become a worse version of Japan at best. There's really not another alternative to this other than some crazy coup or civil war, which I guess is always possible.
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Feb 14, 2017 04:19
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Ardennes posted:China is struggling not to go down the same road as the US, there are pluses and minuses to this strategy. They are still over-producing but essentially keeping unemployment down and from those regions from becoming another rust belt. There's a lot of differences between the world international system in 1889 and 2017; while the current system gives a huge advantage to the US and shits on most of the developing or third world, it does however have its benefits. Compare Germany that felt it would be crippled without colonial possessions and China that can it seem work and expand trade agreements with any country it wants through multinational corporations through the magic of globalism? I think China's interests are too focused on regional issues well within reach* to have the same sort of revanchist drive that Germany's Imperial ambitions did. *Mainly to say that they have a sort of mobility within the international framework to pursue its interests without war; while Germany had limited options. Raenir Salazar fucked around with this message at 04:25 on Feb 14, 2017 |
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Feb 14, 2017 04:23
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Germany was also reigned by a stupid cocky emperor, coming from a family that barely had two generations of experience in running an empire.
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Feb 14, 2017 04:58
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Germany's weltmacht was an indefensible Asian port, the African states France and Britain didn't want and a few islands scattered around the world. A nation doesn't need to have foreign assets in order to go to war over them.
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Feb 14, 2017 05:38
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icantfindaname posted:Wait, since when are loving Greenpeace credible Couldn't resist.
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Feb 14, 2017 08:20
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hypnophant posted:I don't think that's necessarily so. China has benefited greatly from security and market access under the current system. It's reasonable for them to want to take some control of their own economic and security destiny but there's no fundamental reason they couldn't do that by contributing to the system, rather than trying to overthrow it, even just in their immediate neighborhood. They have benefited economically from the current system, but as far as "security" they were if anything always hostile to it, especially over the issue of Taiwan. If anything they see the "security" infrastructure set up by the US as immensely restrictive and if anything want to overturn it. Why should be satisfied with "some control" rather full control of their destiny especially if the US is no longer powerful enough to stop them politically and economically? Raenir Salazar posted:There's a lot of differences between the world international system in 1889 and 2017; while the current system gives a huge advantage to the US and shits on most of the developing or third world, it does however have its benefits. If anything I see China as "revising" the world order to fit their needs and that seems to still rely far more on political and economic control of SE Asia/Africa than it does with a military confrontation with the US. China is going to continue pressing into the South China Sea because they know no one can really stop them including the US, and that the costs are significantly less than an outright occupation of a country (and they already have their share of internal issues). China (as well as Russia/Iran) can subvert the current order was easily without open military confrontation with the US, and if anything want globalization on their terms (which obviously will benefit them).
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Feb 14, 2017 17:26
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Anyone optimistic about China, how do you think they are going to fix the issue of having such a horrible education system? Like, what steps are being taken now, and how is this going to be on the road to being fixed within ~20 years? If nothing is done, how is China realistically going to be a world power when the education system completely fails everyone as bad as it does?
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Feb 14, 2017 18:44
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Out source the higher education to the US.
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Feb 14, 2017 18:49
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whatever7 posted:Out source the higher education to the US. That's already badly watering down the higher education in the US and Canada. We're dealing with so many Chinese students who can't speak English or write a non-plagiarized essay to save their lives, that they are just making the courses easier to cater to the Chinese students who they charge insane out-of-state tuition to.
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Feb 14, 2017 19:29
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angel opportunity posted:That's already badly watering down the higher education in the US and Canada. We're dealing with so many Chinese students who can't speak English or write a non-plagiarized essay to save their lives, that they are just making the courses easier to cater to the Chinese students who they charge insane out-of-state tuition to. for the elites / wealthy, they outsource the high school as well.
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Feb 14, 2017 23:07
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whatever7 posted:Out source the higher education to the US. There's a difference between getting degrees and getting an education. Well, not in China, sadly.
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Feb 14, 2017 23:29
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That's also not going to work, because your average Chinese student like Meng Yuan, who graduated with a 2.2 GPA from the University of Iowa, does not have the GPA to get into a graduate school or continue their PhD in the United States. They also don't have any work experience, nor are they a top student, so they have to go back to China and can't stay in the United States. You would think this is a good thing, as getting an American educated young professional would be ideal, but they will likely end up taking a job at a place like Deloitte for 3,500 rmb/month, and realize they spent over 1,000,000 rmb on their American education, while their co-workers saved literally hundreds of thousands of RMB by going to Tianjin Normal University. At some point you'll stop seeing the outsourcing of education to the United States, because the system isn't working in China. It's basically being supported by parents that use the line of thinking "I know the odds are like 3% that my kid stays in USA and is successful, but it's our only chance, and MY CHILD is different than all the others!" Which isn't a rational though, and trust me, I've tried to explain this to people. I've had students in the United States now, that are getting ready to graduate, that message me and say "I'm unsure why I came here". I just had a conversation like this last week. They don't think they learned anything, their English is marginally better, their GPA is 2.4 and they have no plan for the rest of their life, because their original plan was "To go to USA to study and be successful". Yes, China is outsourcing degrees to the United States, but a degree does not equal education, especially with the way the universities are pandering to the Chinese students. Don't feel bad for the universities though they are overcharging them like crazy and getting it in cash up front, so they are happy as can be.
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Feb 14, 2017 23:49
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Ardennes posted:They have benefited economically from the current system, but as far as "security" they were if anything always hostile to it, especially over the issue of Taiwan. If anything they see the "security" infrastructure set up by the US as immensely restrictive and if anything want to overturn it. They've benefited from not having to fight any significant wars over the last half century. Also, global trade is reliant on maritime security, so they've certainly benefited from that. Imagine if China couldn't easily buy Middle Eastern gas, or sell products in western markets.
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Feb 14, 2017 23:50
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Well its not China's fault that American tax payers are willing to fund 11 carrier groups.
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Feb 14, 2017 23:58
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I've known quite a few people who came to Canada on a student visa and then ended up staying here full time and getting good jobs. All of them though actually bothered to socialize outside of their nationality, actually put effort into improving their english, and actually focused on building skills and understanding the subject rather than just putting in the absolute minimum effort into getting the degree or outright cheating. This seems to be a huge stumbling block for a majority of chinese international students I've encountered and I don't know what schools can do to help them break out of that pattern, it seems to be some deeply rooted cultural thing.
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Feb 14, 2017 23:59
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whatever7 posted:Well its not China's fault that American tax payers are willing to fund 11 carrier groups. Is this a hot take? I'm not sure what it's supposed to mean.
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Feb 15, 2017 00:05
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Baronjutter posted:I've known quite a few people who came to Canada on a student visa and then ended up staying here full time and getting good jobs. All of them though actually bothered to socialize outside of their nationality, actually put effort into improving their english, and actually focused on building skills and understanding the subject rather than just putting in the absolute minimum effort into getting the degree or outright cheating. This seems to be a huge stumbling block for a majority of chinese international students I've encountered and I don't know what schools can do to help them break out of that pattern, it seems to be some deeply rooted cultural thing. Yeah I helped people go to USA that have great lives now. One works at Google, one is in London, one is doing her phd in Seattle, one lives in Tokyo. They don't go back to China to help innovate and lead like china needs them to. The visa lottery to stay in USA every year is like hundreds of thousands of Chinese students vying for a spot to stay in USA and work. The odds are astronomical and that's assuming you already have a decent job that will sponsor you for a visa. If you outsourced education to USA or Canada and the super successful ones came back to lead China, that'd be ideal in theory for China. But again, that's not what's happening and is not reality.
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Feb 15, 2017 00:09
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How much of this is confirmation bias? Here at UWaterloo, math and engineering enroll huge numbers of Chinese internationals, and I don't see much reason to think that the international students have inferior performance. Many of them are bad, yes, but many of them are really really good. It's true that most of the top students end up working for American companies, but that's just because America dominates most fields. When I was working in the US the people from Tsinghua were uniformly very talented. They're not going to stay in China unless they have a very good reason (who knows, with Trump at the wheel).
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Feb 15, 2017 00:23
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sincx fucked around with this message at 05:43 on Mar 23, 2021 |
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Feb 15, 2017 00:42
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sincx posted:The H1B cap staying in place will do a lot to stop China's brain drain. Before 2008, yes, most of the smart people stayed in the US and most of the dumb people were forced to go back to the PRC because they couldn't find a job here. Now, the H1B lottery is so difficult that plenty of smart people are forced to go back to the PRC due to the lack of work visas. But they turn around and then go somewhere else. There was a great article about this in the Chronicle of Higher Education last week but now it's paywalled. Chinese students studying abroad and their paths are being studied and watched for sure. This isn't just all personal examples. The University of Edinburgh is doing a 10 year study on Chinese students who study abroad right now. I think angel opportunity and I care and post a lot about this because we both worked pretty much the same type of job (helping Chinese people go to the United States for education), only that AO was smart enough to do it from a college campus in USA, whereas I was in the trenches of Tianjin for like seven years.
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Feb 15, 2017 00:49
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hypnophant posted:They've benefited from not having to fight any significant wars over the last half century. Also, global trade is reliant on maritime security, so they've certainly benefited from that. Imagine if China couldn't easily buy Middle Eastern gas, or sell products in western markets. They fought a short but blood war with Vietnam and previously they literally fought us in Korea, eh the results are a bit mixed especially since any war that would happen would probably involve us at least indirectly. There hasn't been a major war since they haven't been strong enough to fight us and our allies...we will see if that changes. In all honesty, China at this point may honestly think about setting our their own security system to supplant ours (including naval), trade still occurred in the 19th century even if the world was still bloodier. Also, there is a reason there are building pipelines into Russia as well as rail links across Central Asia. I don't think China wants a world of complete chaos, but rather a world that fully benefits them and if that involves proxy wars and a military build-up so be it. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 00:54 on Feb 15, 2017 |
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Feb 15, 2017 00:50
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Is technical expertise what China is missing, though? That's not a rhetorical question, I don't know the answer. But isn't the main make-or-break question whether the hundreds of millions of working class people can be kept happy and productive? Having a native-grown Intel or such pop up isn't going to move the scales much in that regard.
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Feb 15, 2017 00:55
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Redmark posted:How much of this is confirmation bias? Here at UWaterloo, math and engineering enroll huge numbers of Chinese internationals, and I don't see much reason to think that the international students have inferior performance. Many of them are bad, yes, but many of them are really really good. It's the only attack they have left against chinese people. China is going to overtake the west economically and geopolitically sometime in the mid 2020s, thus ending 400+ years of unchallenged white dominance over the world.
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Feb 15, 2017 00:58
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sincx fucked around with this message at 05:43 on Mar 23, 2021 |
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Feb 15, 2017 01:12
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Peven Stan posted:It's the only attack they have left against chinese people. China is going to overtake the west economically and geopolitically sometime in the mid 2020s, thus ending 400+ years of unchallenged white dominance over the world. I know you think it's an attack but a critique of a country's education system, especially when academics from all over the world think it is arguably the worst education system there is, isn't really all that bad of a thing. I know I'm a white nerd that has really bathed in privilege my entire life, but I unironically want China to be successful and to improve their education system, because with how much China society cares about education, if you had even a DECENT education system it would unleash such a force of knowledge on mankind, it would be unbelievable. sincx posted:Other "good" countries are just as difficult to immigrate to. Some people who don't get through the H1B lottery do try to immigrate to Canada, but many are willing go back to China, especially if they can get a job in (or were originally from) a first tier city. I'm not saying that highly educated people don't work in China, I'm saying they are trying to go somewhere else. Since I've been in Tianjin I've met people that have immigrated to Australia, New Zealand, Canada, England and the United States. Yes, of course there are some highly educated people in tier 1 cities in China. The people I work with based in Beijing right now are fantastic. But that is not the norm and to pretend it is, or to pretend that all of this money and education is not leaving China, is not a big deal is pretty disingenuous. It's a huge problem.
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Feb 15, 2017 01:24
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