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I don't think our current system of government is capable of regurgitating a good PM. So we may as well have a jam man.
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Feb 18, 2017 12:13
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LemonDrizzle posted:John Curtice on Labour's support and referendum voting patterns - the whole piece is worth reading, but the final two paragraphs makes the key point: http://ukandeu.ac.uk/is-labours-brexit-dilemma-being-misunderstood/?platform=hootsuite Personally I find 'analysis' like this a total waste of time. Of course Labour needs to keep the votes of Remain Labour voters. It also needs to keep the votes of Leave Labour voters. It also needs to win over voters from other political parties. It has to do all these things to win an election. Claiming that losing one section of the electorate is somehow worse than another when all are needed to win is wrong and dumb, and just used as a stick to beat whenever Corbyns strategy happens to be at that moment.
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Feb 18, 2017 12:18
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jabby posted:Personally I find 'analysis' like this a total waste of time. Of course Labour needs to keep the votes of Remain Labour voters. It also needs to keep the votes of Leave Labour voters. It also needs to win over voters from other political parties. It has to do all these things to win an election. Claiming that losing one section of the electorate is somehow worse than another when all are needed to win is wrong and dumb, and just used as a stick to beat whenever Corbyns strategy happens to be at that moment. There are far more Remain labour voters than Leave labour voters: losing a proportion of the former is therefore worse than losing the same proportion the latter. It's not rocket science.
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Feb 18, 2017 12:24
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Its telling that when I was listening to tonys brexit speech i was all inspired and agreed with everything in a dreamlike state, can anyone magic charisma +5 on jezza please? ?
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Feb 18, 2017 12:26
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Seaside Loafer posted:Its telling that when I was listening to tonys brexit speech i was all inspired and agreed with everything in a dreamlike state, can anyone magic charisma +5 on jezza please? I dunno, whenever I hear Tony speak it's hard to make out his words over the chorus of screaming dead, maimed & wounded Iraqi children that follows him everywhere.
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Feb 18, 2017 12:39
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Seaside Loafer posted:Its telling that when I was listening to tonys brexit speech i was all inspired and agreed with everything in a dreamlike state, can anyone magic charisma +5 on jezza please? The trick is to remember that it's Tony loving Blair, the architect of many of the problems we face today
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Feb 18, 2017 12:40
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I liked that article Tony wrote where he acknowledged that him saying things made people want to do the opposite. But that he still just couldn't stop himself from saying things.
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Feb 18, 2017 12:40
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Gort posted:The trick is to remember that it's Tony loving Blair, the architect of many of the problems we face today But not the architect of this one, which is arguably the biggest problem we've faced since the Second World War.
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Feb 18, 2017 14:06
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Jedit posted:But not the architect of this one, which is arguably the biggest problem we've faced since the Second World War. Oh well if you can find a single problem he's not responsible for it must mean he's great and not a poo poo
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Feb 18, 2017 14:13
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It's somewhat relevant when that issue is the specific one he has spoken out about.
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Feb 18, 2017 14:18
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Blair might not be responsible for Brexit, but he's responsible for Cameron, who is responsible for Brexit. Therefore, by the transitive property, Brexit is a war criminal.
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Feb 18, 2017 14:25
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https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/832931207050575872
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Feb 18, 2017 14:28
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I hate the tendency of the press to describe any incidence of an expert correcting public opinion as 'condescending', but Blair is not an expert and he did sound condescending about the Brexit thing. If we did have some actually charismatic economists or sociologists in the public sphere that would be a good thing. Like a Brian Cox of not loving yourself over just so that your immigrant neighbor is hosed over slightly more, or a Neil deGrasse Tyson of actually systemic effects do exist and just because you're not racist doesn't mean you don't unconsciously exploit dynamics.
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Feb 18, 2017 14:33
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big scary monsters posted:Blair might not be responsible for Brexit, but he's responsible for Cameron, who is responsible for Brexit. Therefore, by the transitive property, Brexit is a war criminal. Remind me again how he's responsible for Cameron? Guavanaut posted:I hate the tendency of the press to describe any incidence of an expert correcting public opinion as 'condescending', but Blair is not an expert and he did sound condescending about the Brexit thing. He wasn't correcting opinion: he was giving voice to the huge number of people who have been silenced by the Brexit mob. It's something labour should have been doing since June.
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Feb 18, 2017 14:35
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Carborundum posted:I am interested in your interpretation. What do you think is the overlap between people who voted Brexit and people who support TM? I don't really see what the point of this analysis is, beyond the cross tabs of brexit vote x party vote.
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Feb 18, 2017 14:37
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Do you think this changed a lot of minds?
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Feb 18, 2017 14:38
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jabby posted:Personally I find 'analysis' like this a total waste of time. Of course Labour needs to keep the votes of Remain Labour voters. It also needs to keep the votes of Leave Labour voters. It also needs to win over voters from other political parties. It has to do all these things to win an election. Claiming that losing one section of the electorate is somehow worse than another when all are needed to win is wrong and dumb, and just used as a stick to beat whenever Corbyns strategy happens to be at that moment. The key point, and it's probably been beaten to death at this point, is that even if you just care about popularity (which you shouldn't), it is a lot easier to lose remainer votes than pick up brexit votes from other parties. Corbyn's (30%?) brexit support doesn't win leave votes because it doesn't actually get to the heart of why brexit Tories and kippers voted that way, because Labour doesn't (and shouldn't) wanna go there. Unless Labour is prepared to go full Trump on immigration and human rights law...
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Feb 18, 2017 14:50
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Blair is probably responsible for some part of brexit as he's the guy who helped destabilise the middle east
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Feb 18, 2017 14:53
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Yeah the Middle East was stable as heck before 2001.
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Feb 18, 2017 15:03
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Tony Blair was the main news piece on the BBC website for a day, in a piece saying what he wanted to say. Current Labour could learn from this.
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Feb 18, 2017 15:08
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Pissflaps posted:Yeah the Middle East was stable as heck before 2001. it was an awful lot more stable than it is now.
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Feb 18, 2017 15:09
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Fangz posted:The key point, and it's probably been beaten to death at this point, is that even if you just care about popularity (which you shouldn't), it is a lot easier to lose remainer votes than pick up brexit votes from other parties. Corbyn's (30%?) brexit support doesn't win leave votes because it doesn't actually get to the heart of why brexit Tories and kippers voted that way, because Labour doesn't (and shouldn't) wanna go there. Unless Labour is prepared to go full Trump on immigration and human rights law... You are completely ignoring the possibility of Labour losing current Labour leave voters though by backing Remain. Not to mention the fact that a majority of Labour constituencies voted Leave IIRC, and that 40 of the top 50 Leave voting constituencies have Labour MPs.
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Feb 18, 2017 15:45
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MikeCrotch posted:You are completely ignoring the possibility of Labour losing current Labour leave voters though by backing Remain. Not to mention the fact that a majority of Labour constituencies voted Leave IIRC, and that 40 of the top 50 Leave voting constituencies have Labour MPs. And the majority of the labour voters in those constituencies voted remain. What you're completely ignoring is the the fact that in these Leave constituencies, those Leave voters mainly vote Tory, ukip or not at all.
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Feb 18, 2017 15:50
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Pissflaps posted:And the majority of the labour voters in those constituencies voted remain. this is a good point, but leave voters do tend to be a lot more single issue about the whole thing. About a third of Labour's voters went leave, how much of that can they afford to drop and still hold those constituencies?
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Feb 18, 2017 15:53
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Baron Corbyn posted:this is a good point, but leave voters do tend to be a lot more single issue about the whole thing. About a third of Labour's voters went leave, how much of that can they afford to drop and still hold those constituencies? This sounds like a wonderful argument for not deploying a three line whip against A50. It's not one that I agree with, but I can at least see where you're coming from. It's a pisspoor argument for a party that whipped for A50.
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Feb 18, 2017 16:14
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Baron Corbyn posted:this is a good point, but leave voters do tend to be a lot more single issue about the whole thing. About a third of Labour's voters went leave, how much of that can they afford to drop and still hold those constituencies? You see, I don't actually agree with that. Leave support is based typically on a bunch of things - immigration controls and opposition to progressive values especially. Remain support is based more on direct opposition to the effects of leaving the EU. It's not like saying 'oh alright Brexit' actually wins the support of brexiters, if you aren't willing to follow through on other policies. The best you do there is indicate potential future flexibility. Edit: Brexit supporting Labour voters can't really logically be single issue voters because why the heck would those people support Labour? Fangz fucked around with this message at 16:31 on Feb 18, 2017 |
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Feb 18, 2017 16:16
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Seaside Loafer posted:e: happy pop song to wash that poo poo out of your mind Thanks for posting that. Turns out half a dozen of the songs that I've really liked in the past year or two have been by or featured the same person: Dua Lipa. She's great (also I'm old and never know who anyone is these days).
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Feb 18, 2017 16:22
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, give her another view on top of the 97 million she already has (i think she might be forrin though)
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Fangz posted:You see, I don't actually agree with that. Leave support is based typically on a bunch of things - immigration controls and opposition to progressive values especially. Remain support is based more on direct opposition to the effects of leaving the EU. Demographically speaking, Labour voting Brexiters would have to be mostly older people who vote Labour because that's what they've always done. It's obviously only in the past year that Brexit has become the defining issue in British politics, and what will ultimately drive them away from the party though. I do agree with what your saying that what Corbyn is doing isn't going to win their support though. Most of the comments I see/hear from these people about Corbyn whipping for Brexit are along the lines of "I don't like Corbyn but good on him not being a typical remoaner" or the like. It might be keeping a few people onside but it's also probably alienating remain voters. I sympathise with Corbyn because he's been handed the shittiest situation to deal with. He's obviously not doing well but I'm not sure what any Labour leader could do in this scenario. (Excluding things that would completely put me off the party like going anti-immigrant)
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Feb 18, 2017 17:22
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winegums posted:Tony Blair was the main news piece on the BBC website for a day, in a piece saying what he wanted to say. Current Labour could learn from this. BBC News is stuffed with Blairites, almost more than the PLP. Every time that mentally-ill gobshite opens his mouth, the BBC give him top-billing on the website and 5-10 minutes on the evening news slots. Labour can learn plenty from Blair, but how to make the media report you accurately isn't one of those things.
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Feb 18, 2017 17:40
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Missed the news that Simon Fletcher has stood down. Losing your director of campaigns who's meant to be directing election strategy a week out from two byelections is, uh, bad
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Feb 18, 2017 17:50
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kingturnip posted:BBC News is stuffed with Blairites, almost more than the PLP. Uh? What you say makes it sound like this is actually a really big positive for Blair. Getting Blair's media relationships to rub off on the rest of Labour would be a *huge win*.
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Feb 18, 2017 17:54
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Reminder that Blair is now dramatically less popular than Corbyn due to his lying and maniacal warmongering. If he wanted to change minds he'd get someone else to give the message because he knows he has negative credibility.
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Feb 18, 2017 17:56
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Reminder that Tony Blair isn't the Labour Party leader, Jeremy '15%' Corbyn is.
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Feb 18, 2017 17:58
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Irony Be My Shield posted:Reminder that Blair is now dramatically less popular than Corbyn due to his lying and maniacal warmongering. Nah, it's basically a scenario where the electorate at large prefer Blair, but Labour voters prefer Corbyn. Sorta a reverse Brexit thing. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-corbyn-tony-blair-labour-leadership-win-general-election-comres-poll-a7363306.html
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Feb 18, 2017 18:01
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Him being less popular is immaterial and really I think he'd still have a good shot at winning an election now through simple charisma and being media savvy. Corbyn/Labour are never in the news unless they gently caress up, despite the tories constantly being poo poo.
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Feb 18, 2017 18:02
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That's a strange question because it's not asking how voters would vote, rather how they think other people would vote.
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Feb 18, 2017 18:03
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Fangz posted:Nah, it's basically a scenario where the electorate at large prefer Blair, but Labour voters prefer Corbyn. Sorta a reverse Brexit thing. Interesting. And of course this preference among Labour voters is from those planning to vote labour rather than those that actually did - the former group who would naturally be more predisposed towards Corbyn as his blundering has yet to drive them away.
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Feb 18, 2017 18:05
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Irony Be My Shield posted:That's a strange question because it's not asking how voters would vote, rather how they think other people would vote. There's a theory that this sort of question produces more accurate results than direct questioning. I'm not sure whether I buy it myself, but... To be entirely fair I mostly linked that poll because it's the only recent one I can find that poses a question like that. If you have anything recent comparing Corbyn and Blair it'd be interesting to see.
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Feb 18, 2017 18:05
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I don't think Blair should return as Labour Party leader, nor do I think he will. Having said that I think any comparisons in popularity don't tell the whole story: Corbyn's started off badly and are getting worse as people realise how terrible he is. Blair's would only get better as he is a skilful politician and orator.
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Feb 18, 2017 18:15
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Irony Be My Shield posted:Reminder that Blair is now dramatically less popular than Corbyn due to his lying and maniacal warmongering. Hmm. Makes you wonder what would happen if Labour tried applying Blair's media tactics to a leader who isn't a warmongering liar.
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Feb 18, 2017 18:28
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