EU Politics: I miss Renaults(don't make fun of me)

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > EU Politics: I miss Renaults(don't make fun of me)

Libluini: May 18, 2012; I gravitated towards the Greens, eventually even joining the party itself.

The Linke is a party I grudgingly accept exists, but I've learned enough about DDR-history I can't bring myself to trust a party that was once the SED, a party leading the corrupt state apparatus ...; Grimey Drawer

Honj Steak posted:

Just listened to some radio news where a Bavarian CSU politician was just hitting the phrases as if it were still 2010 or something. Paraphrased "We must stay tough with Greece and they need to be disciplined and everything will end up being fine. Anything other than that would destroy trust in the Greek financial sector."

That guy seriously sounded like a broken record.

That's because CSU-politicians are golems forged in hell, they aren't actually human beings.

# ? Feb 21, 2017 13:25

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# ? May 29, 2024 18:03

you feelin fucky: May 23, 2009

Namarrgon posted:

Calling Timmermans a socialist should be a crime against humanity. In the Netherlands his party has been happily marching along with the right-wing liberals for the past 4 years (but really, much longer) and are now suddenly surprised why they are no longer popular.

Ah yes. Frans "People shouldn't complain about our handling of the crisis. Look at Greece's unemployment rate." Timmermans. A true socialist.

# ? Feb 21, 2017 13:43

you feelin fucky: May 23, 2009

Junior G-man posted:

RE: Austeritytalk

Or, you know, just watch Mark Blyth again.

But I'm sure GC will come by at any moment now and complain about lazy Greeks and Spaniards while the busy German worker bee stored for the winter, or some such morality fable.

Not just directed at you, but do people put a lot of faith in economic models? I did a lot of modelling and once or twice the same kind econometrists use. It would scare me if they did. Validation seemed almost absent in that field.

# ? Feb 21, 2017 14:21

Goa Tse-tung: Feb 11, 2008; ;3; Yams Fan

you feelin fucky posted:

Not just directed at you, but do people put a lot of faith in economic models?

Yes, several powerful people do, that's how we got in this mess.

# ? Feb 21, 2017 14:35

GaussianCopula: Jun 5, 2011; Jews fleeing the Holocaust are not in any way comparable to North Africans, who don't flee genocide but want to enjoy the social welfare systems of Northern Europe.

Tesseraction posted:

Which reminds me

German shirker bee more like.

"Greeks say they work the longest"

Additionally, as someone who likes physics, I'd like to point out that "work" is actually defined as power * time. So if Greeks work a lot, they just don't work hard enough.

you feelin fucky posted:

Not just directed at you, but do people put a lot of faith in economic models? I did a lot of modelling and once or twice the same kind econometrists use. It would scare me if they did. Validation seemed almost absent in that field.

To quote one of my favorite songs:

quote:

Econometricians, they�re ever too pious. Are they doing real science or confirming their bias? Their Keynesian models are tidy and neat. But that top down approach is a fatal conceit.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTQnarzmTOc

As for the general austerity critic - the proponents are don't want just cuts to spending, but deep structural reforms, which they believe are politically only possible under extreme pressure. The issue with Greece is that their systems is so sclerotic that it's easier to create diamonds than reform their country.

GaussianCopula fucked around with this message at 14:44 on Feb 21, 2017

# ? Feb 21, 2017 14:36

im on the net me boys: Feb 19, 2017; Hhhhhhhhhhhhhhhjjhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhjhhhhhhjhhhhhhhhhjjjhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh cannabis

GaussianCopula posted:

Additionally, as someone who likes physics, I'd like to point out that "work" is actually defined as power * time.

I wasn't aware that we were discussing physics.

# ? Feb 21, 2017 14:51

Cat Mattress: Jul 14, 2012; by Cyrano4747

Economists are about as trustworthy in their so-called science as Renaissance era doctors.

Austerity is pretty much the equivalent of prescribing bloodletting as the cure for everything, including anemia.

# ? Feb 21, 2017 15:02

GaussianCopula: Jun 5, 2011; Jews fleeing the Holocaust are not in any way comparable to North Africans, who don't flee genocide but want to enjoy the social welfare systems of Northern Europe.

Cat Mattress posted:

Economists are about as trustworthy in their so-called science as Renaissance era doctors.

Austerity is pretty much the equivalent of prescribing bloodletting as the cure for everything, including anemia.

What is the alternative that does

a) Not require other people's money at below market rate

and

b) Does not violate EU treaties.

Right, there is none.

# ? Feb 21, 2017 15:05

Fados: Jan 7, 2013; I like Malcolm X, I can't be racist!

Put this racist dipshit on ignore immediately!

GaussianCopula posted:

What is the alternative that does

a) Not require other people's money at below market rate

and

b) Does not violate EU treaties.

Right, there is none.

I ear this approach worked really well for the Weimar Republic vis a vis Versailles, sounds like a plan.

# ? Feb 21, 2017 15:54

Andrast: Apr 21, 2010

GaussianCopula posted:

What is the alternative that does

a) Not require other people's money at below market rate

and

b) Does not violate EU treaties.

Right, there is none.

Maybe the EU treaties shouldn't be garbage then

# ? Feb 21, 2017 15:57

Tesseraction: Apr 5, 2009

GaussianCopula posted:

"Greeks say they work the longest"

Additionally, as someone who likes physics, I'd like to point out that "work" is actually defined as power * time. So if Greeks work a lot, they just don't work hard enough.

Ah, so you're saying that the untermenschen do not work hard enough. Would you say that working harder would set them free?

# ? Feb 21, 2017 16:01

GABA ghoul: Oct 29, 2011

Pluskut Tukker posted:

And, finally, the constraints of the Euro system mean that austerity is the only thing on the menu for some euro area member states - ending austerity means borrowing more as long as GDP isn't rising, and that wouldn't be feasible for most of the European South even were it allowed under the Stability Pact rules. So voters may not choose austerity, but parties gaining power find themselves with no other option but to implement it anway.

Thanks for your effort post.

Could countries like Italy and Portugal have continued to borrow at their 2008 debt:GDP ratios, even if they had never joined the Eurozone? At some point the increasing interest rates would have made spending cuts/austerity necessary anyway, right? I mean, I assume their external debt is/was in hard currencies and the ability to devalue their own currency wouldn't have helped them in that situation?

How important is the Stability Pact right now? It wasn't really enforced before 2008, has this changed now or are national governments just using it as a scapegoat? If it's enforced, how is it done?

# ? Feb 21, 2017 16:07

Cat Mattress: Jul 14, 2012; by Cyrano4747

GaussianCopula posted:

b) Does not violate EU treaties.

That's far too loving easy a way out.

"Look, the treaty stipulates that we have to sacrifice a thousand youth each year to Moloch. We can't just decide to stop that, we just can't!"

When policies have demonstrated to be a loving catastrophic mistake that is tearing the continent apart and offering no way out, you are there saying "the policy is enshrined in treaties and therefore cannot be questioned" and then you wonder why the gently caress you get Brexit and a general rise of anti-EU extreme-right populism.

Treaties get in the way? They get canceled. Not a loving problem. Having a functional society is more important than the bullshit economic doctrine of a bunch of assheaded dogmatic ideologues.

# ? Feb 21, 2017 16:07

9-Volt Assault: Jan 27, 2007; Beter twee tetten in de hand dan tien op de vlucht.

GaussianCopula posted:

What is the alternative that does

a) Not require other people's money at below market rate

and

b) Does not violate EU treaties.

Right, there is none.

Germany just has to foot the bill. They want the Euro, they gotta pay for it.

# ? Feb 21, 2017 16:16

GABA ghoul: Oct 29, 2011

People should really stop taking GC seriously and stop arguing with him about economics. He is a hardcore FYGM/Randian/objectivist. His entire worldview is a bad joke.

# ? Feb 21, 2017 16:21

Electronico6: Feb 25, 2011

Raspberry Jam It In Me posted:

Thanks for your effort post.

Could countries like Italy and Portugal have continued to borrow at their 2008 debt:GDP ratios, even if they had never joined the Eurozone? At some point the increasing interest rates would have made spending cuts/austerity necessary anyway, right? I mean, I assume their external debt is/was in hard currencies and the ability to devalue their own currency wouldn't have helped them in that situation?

How important is the Stability Pact right now? It wasn't really enforced before 2008, has this changed now or are national governments just using it as a scapegoat? If it's enforced, how is it done?

There really wasn't anything special about Portugal's debt in 2008. Comparing it to Germany at the same time and there's very little that separate both, Italy on the other way was well on it's way.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/portugal/government-debt-to-gdp
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/germany/government-debt-to-gdp
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/italy/government-debt-to-gdp

The real issue in Portugal(and remains) was it's banking sector which began proper meltdown late 2009 and revealing glaring deficiencies in Portugal's larger economy, then you have TROIKA stepping in 2011 with the bail out and yeah.

This is just another problem that affected the countries that got TROIKA(Greece, Ireland, Portugal) and the two that avoided the bail out due to their size(Spain and Italy). They were all considered to have the same disease, and all given the same poison, when reality was all countries suffered from different conditions but all the same cause, the loving Euro.

# ? Feb 21, 2017 16:28

BabyFur Denny: Mar 18, 2003

Cat Mattress posted:

That's far too loving easy a way out.

"Look, the treaty stipulates that we have to sacrifice a thousand youth each year to Moloch. We can't just decide to stop that, we just can't!"

When policies have demonstrated to be a loving catastrophic mistake that is tearing the continent apart and offering no way out, you are there saying "the policy is enshrined in treaties and therefore cannot be questioned" and then you wonder why the gently caress you get Brexit and a general rise of anti-EU extreme-right populism.

Treaties get in the way? They get canceled. Not a loving problem. Having a functional society is more important than the bullshit economic doctrine of a bunch of assheaded dogmatic ideologues.

Sure, treaties can and sometimes definitely should be changed and the current politicians seem to be incapable of doing that.
However, if you do change the treaties, you should also have to accept that not everybody will agree to the change and rather leave.

So if you e.g. change the EU treaties to allow Greece etc. to run the deficit they would like to, you will also have to accept that Germany might want to leave and not cover Greece's debts anymore.

9-Volt Assault posted:

Germany just has to foot the bill. They want the Euro, they gotta pay for it.

They actually wanted the Euro the least out of all the Nations that got it.

BabyFur Denny fucked around with this message at 18:41 on Feb 21, 2017

# ? Feb 21, 2017 18:33

you feelin fucky: May 23, 2009

Cat Mattress posted:

That's far too loving easy a way out.

"Look, the treaty stipulates that we have to sacrifice a thousand youth each year to Moloch. We can't just decide to stop that, we just can't!"

When policies have demonstrated to be a loving catastrophic mistake that is tearing the continent apart and offering no way out, you are there saying "the policy is enshrined in treaties and therefore cannot be questioned" and then you wonder why the gently caress you get Brexit and a general rise of anti-EU extreme-right populism.

Treaties get in the way? They get canceled. Not a loving problem. Having a functional society is more important than the bullshit economic doctrine of a bunch of assheaded dogmatic ideologues.

Unfortunately exactly this has been the MO of national governments for the last 20 years. Need to pass an unpopular law through parliament, but afraid of the backlash? Attach it to EU legislation and pretend EU TREATIES force you to implement it. The problem isn't EU treaties, it's that national governments actually believe sacrificing to Moloch is a sound idea. The EU is just a vehicle to avoid democratic accountability.

# ? Feb 21, 2017 18:58

Fados: Jan 7, 2013; I like Malcolm X, I can't be racist!

Put this racist dipshit on ignore immediately!

It is also a great place to be working in the banking industry, seeing that the states buy out your bad loans when the going gets rough and call it a problem of 'cultural laziness'.

# ? Feb 21, 2017 19:07

NihilismNow: Aug 31, 2003

Tesseraction posted:

Which reminds me

German shirker bee more like.

Maybe Germany has the same "problem" as the Netherlands. Women rarely work full time so average hours are lower than you would expect, only 25% of working women have a full time job.Greece has a lower female labour participation rate than either NL or DE.

# ? Feb 21, 2017 19:26

GaussianCopula: Jun 5, 2011; Jews fleeing the Holocaust are not in any way comparable to North Africans, who don't flee genocide but want to enjoy the social welfare systems of Northern Europe.

Cat Mattress posted:

a general rise of anti-EU extreme-right populism.

The extreme-right populism is rooted in a strong objection to bailing out Greece and other PIGS countries, with France being the only exception. It is extremely unpopular in debtor states to give more money to Greece. If you want to make an argument that the Euro was a mistake and is now increasing tensions in the EU, I would completely agree but Germany was forced to participate by France over Re-Unification, because most countries aspire to have a hard currency.

The issue in the PIGS countries was that they political and regulatory systems were not ready for it, which led to a debt-fueled boom in the 2000s, until the GFC caused the housing bubbles in Spain/Portugal to burst and the Greek government debt had run completely out of control. It's important to understand that this was not caused by the Euro directly, but by the respective systems not being able to handle a hard currency.

The result is now that the standard of living in the affected countries has to be adjusted downward to not only match their economic means, but also to pay, at least in part, for the former gap between their economically viable standard of living and the actual standard of living.

# ? Feb 21, 2017 19:45

MiddleOne: Feb 17, 2011

GaussianCopula posted:

The extreme-right populism is rooted in a strong objection to bailing out Greece and other PIGS countries

What planet do you live on? :psyduck:

People like Nigel loving Farage have multiple times in the EU parliament argued that the treatment of the southern economies is a blatant example of EU overreach and he's not alone among the extreme-right populists in making that argument. The bail-out is the least controversial part of the anti-democratic farce that is the Troika. The only populist right that is still deluded that anything that has been happening in the Eurozone over the last 6 years makes sense is Merkel and a the good old former Sovjet economies who's ideology is best summed up as 'gently caress you got mine'.

# ? Feb 21, 2017 19:54

A Buttery Pastry: Sep 4, 2011; Delicious and Informative!

MiddleOne posted:

What planet do you live on?

Germania IV.

# ? Feb 21, 2017 20:15

His Divine Shadow: Aug 7, 2000; I'm not a fascist. I'm a priest. Fascists dress up in black and tell people what to do.

BabyFur Denny posted:

They actually wanted the Euro the least out of all the Nations that got it.

Doesn't matter one bit, if the eurozone is to survive, money transfers from germany to other EU members is required. Since that won't happen I vote the nuclear option. It's gonna happen anyway so might as well get it on with.

# ? Feb 21, 2017 20:28

Cat Mattress: Jul 14, 2012; by Cyrano4747

Germany didn't want the euro, so they were allowed to turn it into the Deutsche Mark with a different name.

# ? Feb 21, 2017 20:36

GABA ghoul: Oct 29, 2011

MiddleOne posted:

What planet do you live on? People like Nigel loving Farage have multiple times in the EU parliament argued that the treatment of the southern economies is a blatant example of EU overreach and he's not alone among the extreme-right populists in making that argument. The bail-out is the least controversial part of the anti-democratic farce that is the Troika. The only populist right that is still deluded that anything that has been happening in the Eurozone over the last 6 years makes sense is Merkel and a the good old former Sovjet economies who's ideology is best summed up as 'gently caress you got mine'.

He's projecting. German right wing populist consider the bailout to Greece a historic crime against the German people and the noble German wallet.

The AfD party program even has a line in it about how Greek natural resources should serve as collateral for the loans. :wtc:

# ? Feb 21, 2017 21:54

icantfindaname: Jul 1, 2008

Junior G-man posted:

RE: Austeritytalk

Or, you know, just watch Mark Blyth again.

But I'm sure GC will come by at any moment now and complain about lazy Greeks and Spaniards while the busy German worker bee stored for the winter, or some such morality fable.

lol at the loving washington post trying to grab populist-left cred

# ? Feb 21, 2017 21:56

LemonDrizzle: Mar 28, 2012; neoliberal shithead

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/834142079114686464

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/834141858360074240

this_is_fine.jpg

# ? Feb 21, 2017 22:02

Pissflaps: Oct 20, 2002; by VideoGames

So when Le Pen wins is she going to hold a Frexit referendum or just invoke article 50?

# ? Feb 21, 2017 22:04

GABA ghoul: Oct 29, 2011

hold on to your pantalons

# ? Feb 21, 2017 22:14

Dead Cosmonaut: Nov 14, 2015; by FactsAreUseless

Any chance of Hamon making it to 2nd round?

# ? Feb 21, 2017 23:07

Cat Mattress: Jul 14, 2012; by Cyrano4747

Dead Cosmonaut posted:

Any chance of Hamon making it to 2nd round?

If the polls are to be believed (and who still believes polls?) then for this to happen you'd need to have both Macron and Fillon lose a few more percentile points. So at this point that would require Bayrou to announce his candidacy and for him to manage to get back most of his 2012 voters who went about half and half to Macron and Fillon.

Meanwhile, Hamon lost some steam and is now about equal to M�lenchon. But assuming that he goes back up, and that Bayrou does candidate and take votes away from the two right-wing dickheads, then yeah he could get to second round against Le Pen. None of the pollsters have really bothered looking at how the second round would end up, though it's likely in that match-up the Fillonnists would vote for the candidate matching their Republican Party convictions the most: Le Pen.

# ? Feb 21, 2017 23:21

Lord of the Llamas: Jul 9, 2002; EULER'VE TO SEE IT VENN SOMEONE CALLS IT THE WRONG THING AND PROVOKES MY WRATH

Cat Mattress posted:

If the polls are to be believed (and who still believes polls?) then for this to happen you'd need to have both Macron and Fillon lose a few more percentile points. So at this point that would require Bayrou to announce his candidacy and for him to manage to get back most of his 2012 voters who went about half and half to Macron and Fillon.

Meanwhile, Hamon lost some steam and is now about equal to M�lenchon. But assuming that he goes back up, and that Bayrou does candidate and take votes away from the two right-wing dickheads, then yeah he could get to second round against Le Pen. None of the pollsters have really bothered looking at how the second round would end up, though it's likely in that match-up the Fillonnists would vote for the candidate matching their Republican Party convictions the most: Le Pen.

Fillon + Le Pen + Aignan = 50% :suicide:

# ? Feb 22, 2017 11:40

Ardennes: May 12, 2002

Lord of the Llamas posted:

Fillon + Le Pen + Aignan = 50%

Admittedly, I haven't seen Le Pen really poll over 44%, but I think the broader question is what happens next election? I mean Le Pen's trajectory is still rising and I could see Fillon or Macron having a meltdown at some point of their presidencies.

Of course, it wouldn't be the first time in recent memory of a "shock" result in what was suppose to be a predictable defeat.

(Also, watching Fillon slowly climb back in the polls is a bit grotesque to be honest.)

# ? Feb 22, 2017 11:57

Lord of the Llamas: Jul 9, 2002; EULER'VE TO SEE IT VENN SOMEONE CALLS IT THE WRONG THING AND PROVOKES MY WRATH

Ardennes posted:

Admittedly, I haven't seen Le Pen really poll over 44%, but I think the broader question is what happens next election? I mean Le Pen's trajectory is still rising and I could see Fillon or Macron having a meltdown at some point of their presidencies.

Of course, it wouldn't be the first time in recent memory of a "shock" result in what was suppose to be a predictable defeat.

(Also, watching Fillon slowly climb back in the polls is a bit grotesque to be honest.)

A lot of Le Pen's support comes from young people*. Can the next President give them reasons to be optimistic about their lives or they'll somehow "grow out of it" ?

* i.e. in France young people are still less likely to vote right wing but those that do are overwhelmingly for Le Pen as opposed to Fillon, compared to say the UK where both UKIP and Conservative support is heavily skewed towards over 50s.

Lord of the Llamas fucked around with this message at 12:12 on Feb 22, 2017

# ? Feb 22, 2017 12:10

Stretch Marx: Apr 29, 2008; I'm ok with this.

GaussianCopula posted:

What is the alternative that does

a) Not require other people's money at below market rate

and

b) Does not violate EU treaties.

Right, there is none.

# ? Feb 22, 2017 12:24

Tesseraction: Apr 5, 2009

NihilismNow posted:

Maybe Germany has the same "problem" as the Netherlands. Women rarely work full time so average hours are lower than you would expect, only 25% of working women have a full time job.Greece has a lower female labour participation rate than either NL or DE.

Ah so now 'lazy greeks' has evolved to 'lazy greek bitches' cool.

# ? Feb 22, 2017 12:32

Doctor Malaver: May 23, 2007; Ce qui s'est pass� t'a rendu plus fort

Tesseraction posted:

Ah, so you're saying that the untermenschen do not work hard enough. Would you say that working harder would set them free?

Hey GC is German and I don't agree with him so I'll call him a nazi! Splendid idea! GaussianCopula? More like GoebbelsCopula, huh?

# ? Feb 22, 2017 12:35

His Divine Shadow: Aug 7, 2000; I'm not a fascist. I'm a priest. Fascists dress up in black and tell people what to do.

So you love Hitler, too?

# ? Feb 22, 2017 12:36

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# ? May 29, 2024 18:03

MiddleOne: Feb 17, 2011

Stretch Marx posted:

# ? Feb 22, 2017 12:37

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