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Smoke_Max posted:Hello, climate change thread, what's your take on this? Should I be a bit more hopeful or stay desperate? Just for what it's worth, CCS isn't so much a magical technology that might save us all as it is a bare minimum technology needed to stave off the worst of climate change. Even conservatively optimistic projections assume large scale carbon capture will happen sooner or later. The problem is that it hasn't been demonstrated on an industrial scale and there's every reason to think that it's going to be massively uneconomical for the foreseeable future. So... I don't know. Take that as optimistically or pessimistically as you want to, I guess.
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Feb 20, 2017 01:02
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Smoke_Max posted:Hello, climate change thread, what's your take on this? Should I be a bit more hopeful or stay desperate? Phew, okay, now to roll that out on WWII levels of collective public effort by 2040 and onward so we go net carbon neutral by 2050 and back down to 450ppm CO2 by 2100, warming only 2C, resulting in best-possible-case flooding, precipitation change, and climate-aggrivated war. As other have said, carbon capture and sequestration tech is actually already an integral part of CO2 concentration alternate futures that represent our best possible case climate catastrophes. The absolutely maximum rosy-eyed unicorns and candy future, RCP 2.6 (google this) still represents a climate disaster of +2C, which still basically equates to massive flooding/melting. Potato Salad fucked around with this message at 01:37 on Feb 20, 2017 |
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Feb 20, 2017 01:27
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This is your friendly reminder that those 2° projections only include forcings and immediate feedbacks i.e. water vapor (and even then only kinda). Feedback processes are not included, which could account for an additional 1° to 8° warming at 2° of forcing.
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Feb 20, 2017 01:35
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Gareth Gobulcoque posted:This is your friendly reminder that those 2° projections only include forcings and immediate feedbacks i.e. water vapor (and even then only kinda). Feedback processes are not included, which could account for an additional 1° to 8° warming at 2° of forcing. Source?
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Feb 20, 2017 01:48
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https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representative_Concentration_Pathways Read about representative concentration pathways on Wikipedia for starters. There is a fuckton to digest on concentration pathways. IMAGE (2.6) is the sparkles and unicorn pathway where the following timeline is adhered to: -Flatten CO2 emission growth in the 2020s (USA has actually essentially decoupled economic growth from CO2 emission growth in the 20-teens under Obama, at this point its the developing world that's still increasing GDP and CO2 emissions in tandem, so how to handle this bullet point could have been a foreign policy / development thread unto itself even without the confounding factor of antiscience internal USA isdues post-2016). -Diminish CO2 emissions throughout the 2030s / 2040s. Our children's societies, witnessing flooding firsthand or on video or pictures on social media through their young adulthoods, pay for and implement the first great sequestration projects in this time, especially as we oldfarts end up more and more tardy on our own generation's goals. -2050: carbon neutral society by here, even start net carbon negative as sequestration efforts ramp up. After this point, its really up to our grandchildren how far they want to wind back the clock. By models looking only at CO2 and directly-correlated agents, if our great grandkids want to walk that ball as far back as 450ppm by 2100, there's a planet with a whole load of flooding, precipitation change, massive population migrations, more dramatic extremes in weather, and +2C. "Source?" comes up pretty often on the topics of RCPs, so be aware this is more of an aggregate narrative compiled by climate scientists, economists and policy experts creating a series of possible futures based off IPCC AR5 data. The source rabbit hole goes as deep as you're willing to put in time reading dry scientific prose--the ARx reports are those "X thousands of scientists agree..." / "9X% of the scientific community's consensus agrees..." publication aggregation and summarization effort. Potato Salad fucked around with this message at 02:34 on Feb 20, 2017 |
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Feb 20, 2017 02:22
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It says that right in AR5. Radiative forcings with derived equilibrium feedbacks. The cmip5, used in ar5, models radiative forcings, fast carbon cycle feedbacks, and water vapor as feedback from clouds and as a ghg. These feedbacks are among the largest uncertainties within the models and not well understood. Long term feedback processes are even less well understood and account for a huge range of additional warming that is not modeled. I thought there was a brief discussion on this in ar5, but I can't find it at the moment. If you want sources for long term feedbacks and additional warming they could represent, that would take some digging. Google hansen feedback though cause he's definitely written on it a bunch. Edit: I'll never understand how Hansen can write a paper that says "oh, this is much worse" which is basically all of them and be so continuously optimistic. Gareth Gobulcoque fucked around with this message at 02:35 on Feb 20, 2017 |
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Feb 20, 2017 02:32
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I see that carbon capture technology and I'm confused. I will sound like a simpleton by asking, but why is there not a full scale effort to start funding that/using that now BEFORE we have a massive extinction event? Don't we need to keep those plankton alive in order to keep our atmosphere breathable for us? Even if we can use this technology down the road, doesn't it make sense to use it before the polar ice caps melt and before the reefs die, etc?
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Feb 20, 2017 02:35
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Burt Buckle posted:I see that carbon capture technology and I'm confused. I will sound like a simpleton by asking, but why is there not a full scale effort to start funding that/using that now BEFORE we have a massive extinction event? Don't we need to keep those plankton alive in order to keep our atmosphere breathable for us? Even if we can use this technology down the road, doesn't it make sense to use it before the polar ice caps melt and before the reefs die, etc? Because necessity is the mother of innovation and humans are lazy and self serving. Basically because FYGM. Nothing will happen until capital is threatened economically by climate change.
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Feb 20, 2017 02:38
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Burt Buckle posted:I will sound like a simpleton by asking, but why is there not a full scale effort to start funding that/using that now BEFORE we have a massive extinction event? Its expensive and no one wants to pay for it. The political right have so obfuscated the science around climate change in America (and other places) that even if a politician wanted to do something about it, the support from the public just isn't there. The general public quiet simply just doesn't grasp the gravity of this situation and will not tolerate massive spending to mitigate it.
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Feb 20, 2017 02:40
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Burt Buckle posted:doesn't it make sense to use it before the polar ice caps melt and before the reefs die, etc? You should disabuse yourself of the notion that the Arctic can be saved. It is dying and its death is irrevocable. Second, it's pretty much always going to be cheaper to cut emissions than capture them after they're in the atmosphere. Fun fact: going to zero emissions carries its own warming as we undo global dimming from polution!
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Feb 20, 2017 02:57
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BattleMoose posted:Its expensive and no one wants to pay for it. The political right have so obfuscated the science around climate change in America (and other places) that even if a politician wanted to do something about it, the support from the public just isn't there. The other snag is that a hell of a lot of people think things like "wait, what? Human extinction in a few centuries? Doesn't affect me at all so drill baby, drill!"
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Feb 20, 2017 03:05
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Someday solar power and electric cars will be more economical than gas/coal. I think I'm going to try and go that route when I get a house and just talk about how much money I'm saving. Even if I'm not.
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Feb 20, 2017 03:16
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Potato Salad posted:
I'm well aware of all this. I work in a related scientific field. I'm asking where the additional 1 to 8 degrees phrase came from, because that's specific enough to come from from a single paper, and I have not seen "additional feedback" nailed down so concretely. I guess I don't consider "do your own searching" to be a very helpful answer.
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Feb 20, 2017 03:28
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Convergence posted:I'm asking where the additional 1 to 8 degrees phrase came from, because that's specific enough to come from from a single paper, and I have not seen "additional feedback" nailed down so concretely. I guess I don't consider "do your own searching" to be a very helpful answer. That type of change, up to 8 degrees within decades timescale is consistent with changes that have occurred in Earth's previous climate. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dansgaard%E2%80%93Oeschger_event
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Feb 20, 2017 03:31
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Sorry, I'll have to get back to you when I have the time. It's not from one paper, but a compiled range over multiple papers. While I still read primary literature, I'm not in the field or even a related one anymore and so no longer really keep close tabs on specific papers. So it will take some time to figure out where I'm pulling those numbers from. If you're primarily interested in a concise layout in terms of x° for long feebacks, I definitely don't have that. If you're looking for probably 1° maybe more or maybe up to 8° or maybe 3° over 1 century then I can probably find them eventually. But, the point is more that we don't model long feedbacks and those represent a huge unknown pool of additional warming that could be a little or could be a lot. The actual numbers aren't that important since they cover such a broad range as to be functionally meaningless. BattleMoose posted:That type of change, up to 8 degrees within decades timescale is consistent with changes that have occurred in Earth's previous climate. These aren't huge global temperature swings though. The big swings seem more local? Gareth Gobulcoque fucked around with this message at 04:33 on Feb 20, 2017 |
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Feb 20, 2017 03:37
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Convergence posted:I'm well aware of all this. I work in a related scientific field. I'm asking where the additional 1 to 8 degrees phrase came from, because that's specific enough to come from from a single paper, and I have not seen "additional feedback" nailed down so concretely. I guess I don't consider "do your own searching" to be a very helpful answer. I actually misread that as a question about concentration futures and not additional feedback / agents like alteration to currents or albedo, so my bad. I'm personally far less confident in literature on oceanic effects; Greenland's rate of melt throws way more meltwater into the oceans than models have previously considered. What I'm reading so far points to  but I'm not at all well read yet.
Potato Salad fucked around with this message at 04:17 on Feb 20, 2017 |
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Feb 20, 2017 04:13
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Gareth Gobulcoque posted:
These are utterly massive temperature swings that occured over a very brief period of time, even a local change of 8 degrees over 40 years is utterly terrifying.
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Feb 20, 2017 04:28
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Burt Buckle posted:Someday solar power and electric cars will be more economical than gas/coal. I think I'm going to try and go that route when I get a house and just talk about how much money I'm saving. Even if I'm not. If you seriously care at all about the carbon impact of your home/mode of transportation, move into housing that isn't a single family home and locate yourself within reach of public transit. Also, buy a bike.
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Feb 20, 2017 04:55
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 My job affords me a lot of time to think about things, and having a photographic memory I tend to think about the past a lot. The past years events in the arctic have me thinking rather often about how rapidly global decline has accelerated in the past decade, climate wise and socio-economically. It is unsettling. Deeply unsettling, of late. I wouldn't give us more than another ten years of stability, tbqh. If you have the means or can acquire them, "what is to be done" can be answered by hardening yourself and those you care for as best as possible against widespread upheaval. I do not mean in the context of building a fallout shelter, or pretending you can vanish into the woods, or stockpiling canned beans; I mean looking at currently and past destabilized societies and emulating the lessons learned by those who survived. Read about life after the fall of the USSR in the Caucasian states, Bosnia in the 1990's, or Venezuela as it is currently unfolding. Yes, all of those societies were much less coddled than we are and thus had a natural advantage when it came to self sufficiency, but we can still learn. What we have right now is time on our hands to unlearn our heavy reliance on JiT consumerism for daily survival, and as individuals that is really the best we can do in the face of what is coming. That time is a finite resource which is running out, however. I have shitposted considerably in this thread in the vein of nihilism, suggesting that we are all going to die and should accept our inevitable fate of being utterly forgotten, but in truth I have become increasingly unnerved since last fall and I can no longer find it in me to joke about such things. It's no longer funny when the data gets real. 
Rime fucked around with this message at 04:28 on Feb 21, 2017 |
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Feb 21, 2017 04:21
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That's....a Rime post 
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Feb 21, 2017 04:24
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I'm optimistic so I believe we have two decades left. Or at least I did until November.
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Feb 21, 2017 04:52
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Yeah, turns out capitalist globalization emits not only dangerous chemicals and atmospheric greenhouse gases, but also a sort of voyeuristic ennui that fuels a broad desperation for nationalistic simplicity and the destruction of our fellow human beings. I guess we really did need to develop a global system of governance - and a global system of meaning-making - in order to live as a global species, or something... Ironically, however, the best way to "harden" one's self against societal collapse is to become well networked, influential, and known - and to develop a set of skills that helps you to maintain your connections to other people. So, basically what you need to do to do something about climate change mitigation. Societies don't crumble overnight, even if they can get lovely very fast. People continue to exist in networks, even when the conditions change.
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Feb 21, 2017 06:52
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Fasdar posted:Yeah, turns out capitalist globalization emits not only dangerous chemicals and atmospheric greenhouse gases, but also a sort of voyeuristic ennui that fuels a broad desperation for nationalistic simplicity and the destruction of our fellow human beings. I guess we really did need to develop a global system of governance - and a global system of meaning-making - in order to live as a global species, or something... Pretty much, and the bolded part is extra true. Personal effort towards fighting climate change and mitigation is tightly linked to the very same preparations you do to survive in a rapidly warming world. No man is an island, and we will always need a society to live in. There's no reason not to think about preparing yourself and your friends and family for a changing world at the same time as arguing for mitigation and actively fighting against global warming. In fact, if you can convince the people around you that even some preperation for the future changes is needed, you've already half way convinced them to help fight climate change through votes and actions - by directly linking their self interest with the root cause of the problem. The central problem with climate change is its slow onset. Making it palpable and something you must react to, I would expect people's views on it to change more effectively than any graph or paper. Big, dramatic changes like the Arctic in serious trouble is great for convincing people that the problem is real and current, but we can't count on that alone because most of the effects will be more gradual and less dramatic or at least blame-able on things other than global warming.
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Feb 21, 2017 09:00
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So why exactly should I care about anything then? I already have no friends, no SO and if I get one it's just another person I have to defend. I don't understand why keep fighting in this case. What is so special about the process of living? Why fight a war that has been lost? I genuinely want to know. Is it an instinct that I don't have? Is it a possible subconscious religious thing? I know if there turns out to be a God He will have to beg for my forgiveness. I don't understand. Please help me understand.
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Feb 21, 2017 14:16
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Being alive is a cool and good thing. It's definitely unusual that you don't cherish that fact and it hints at a depressive mental condition.
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Feb 21, 2017 14:26
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AceOfFlames posted:So why exactly should I care about anything then? I already have no friends, no SO and if I get one it's just another person I have to defend. I don't understand why keep fighting in this case. What is so special about the process of living? Why fight a war that has been lost? I genuinely want to know. Is it an instinct that I don't have? Is it a possible subconscious religious thing? I know if there turns out to be a God He will have to beg for my forgiveness. First, get some medical assistance for your sadbrains and start working out. It's corny but it works. Second, realize that humans - especially in the western world - have overall never had it so good as we have it now. We have access to incredible things, live incredibly rich lives, are up to our necks in first class entertainment and can realistically be expected to be able to prepare for and survive even a significant downturn in living quality. We are high up on the mountain of human achievement right now, and while maybe we won't be able to climb any more, we are so far from sea level even a big downturn leaves us with pretty great lives. You should care about not falling further down, and the fates of all the people in the world who aren't even on the climb in any significant way and that are at real danger of having horrible things happen to them, because we are human and we give a poo poo if people die for no good reason.
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Feb 21, 2017 14:27
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Honj Steak posted:Being alive is a cool and good thing. It's definitely unusual that you don't cherish that fact and it hints at a depressive mental condition. I like being alive. But in the context of a modern society. One where I don't have to struggle to survive. One in which I don't need to be physically strong. One in which I don't have to dig in the dirt for 12 hours a day to feed myself. One in which I as long as I stay out of but the most dangerous places in the planet I don't have to worry about being raped or murdered. One in which I have videogames, TV, movies, thousands of books contained in a device that fits in the palm of my hand. That is the life I am used to. The same that I cannot bear the thought of going away. I know I am not like other people. When the thin veneer of society falls, those who are different for any reason are the first to be exploited and hurt by the rest. And I cannot be any different. How can any sane person not be depressed by that?
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Feb 21, 2017 14:33
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AceOfFlames posted:I like being alive. But in the context of a modern society. One where I don't have to struggle to survive. One in which I don't need to be physically strong. One in which I don't have to dig in the dirt for 12 hours a day to feed myself. One in which I as long as I stay out of but the most dangerous places in the planet I don't have to worry about being raped or murdered. One in which I have videogames, TV, movies, thousands of books contained in a device that fits in the palm of my hand. I can't believe I'm posting into this abyss, but honestly maybe if you tried to do something with your life besides videogames, TV, movies, and a e-reader you might suddenly find yourself not quite so depressed. Get outside, get a life, then you might suddenly see more of what makes life worth fighting for. That you say to yourself that you cannot bear the thought of losing these really specific hobbies means you are suffering from an addiction to them. Talk to your therapist about developing a step down approach to limiting your electronics time. Oh, and stop reading the climate change thread, it's bad for your health.
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Feb 21, 2017 14:42
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Like, if you can't find that walking in a park is nice or talking with friends for hours is nice, that's the first front you need to work on advancing, period. Also I can tell you therapy is actually pretty useful from personal experience.
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Feb 21, 2017 14:48
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I keep saying it, but dude, sky and dirt are so human, you'll slip into it if the time comes. you're more resilient than you think.
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Feb 21, 2017 14:49
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Potato Salad posted:Like, if you can't find that walking in a park is nice or talking with friends for hours is nice, that's the first front you need to work on advancing, period. Also I can tell you therapy is actually pretty useful from personal experience. I do go for walks often and do I do enjoy talking with friends. Unfortunately most of them moved away. Working on getting new ones. AceOfFlames fucked around with this message at 15:00 on Feb 21, 2017 |
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Feb 21, 2017 14:55
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Ace, you, very specifically you, should go join a commune for a while. (or an Amish/shaker community if religion is your jam) Electronics are fancy and all, but I assure you, being a peasant is not as bad as it's made out to be, and I think you'll find that community is what makes life worth living to social apes.
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Feb 21, 2017 15:07
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Well, there's the full-bore "join a commune" post.
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Feb 21, 2017 15:09
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Potato Salad posted:Well, there's the full-bore "join a commune" post. :Shhhhhh: if he's at a commune he won't be able to post and interrupt our calm rational acceptance of our doom.
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Feb 21, 2017 15:10
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Here's an article about La Paz in Bolivia adapting to changing weather patterns and disappearing glaciers. It's reasonably manageable in a city of 600k but I suspect we'll see it happen on a much larger scale soon enough.
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Feb 21, 2017 15:38
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That is a really, really good article considering the source. drat.  Ace, you should probably seek therapy to discuss these things. Or at least do a significant amount of personal introspection so that you can come to grips with the harsh nature of reality. You are pissing and moaning about killing yourself because one day videogames might not exist, while countless children currently slave in the brick factories of Bangladesh and millions of all ages die of malnourishment and thirst world wide. Take a step back and slap yourself, goddamn. Rime fucked around with this message at 16:42 on Feb 21, 2017 |
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Feb 21, 2017 16:38
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AceOfFlames posted:So why exactly should I care about anything then? I already have no friends, no SO and if I get one it's just another person I have to defend. I don't understand why keep fighting in this case. What is so special about the process of living? Why fight a war that has been lost? I genuinely want to know. Is it an instinct that I don't have? Is it a possible subconscious religious thing? I know if there turns out to be a God He will have to beg for my forgiveness. Bitch you are going to die either way! All humans die! Why do you spend so much drat time worrying about the future being bad when the present is still fine? What in the hell is the difference to you today? If the mad max future of resource wars and the collapse of civilization happens sooner rather than later you can kill yourself then, but in the mean time why don't you live your drat life? And why are you posting this in the climate change thread even though you have an e/n thread now?
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Feb 21, 2017 17:43
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Reminder that AceofFlames lives a comfortable middle-class lifestyle in the loving Netherlands where even the insanity of the Trump administration is relegated to bewildered Netherlandish headlines.
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Feb 21, 2017 17:49
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Oxxidation posted:Reminder that AceofFlames lives a comfortable middle-class lifestyle in the loving Netherlands where even the insanity of the Trump administration is relegated to bewildered Netherlandish headlines.
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Feb 21, 2017 18:11
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A Buttery Pastry posted:You say "the loving Netherlands" like the whole country isn't a minor sea level rise and a "freak" storm away from being nearly entirely flooded. I live on a coast and things aren't much rosier here. At least the Dutch can build boats out of their impractical wooden shoes.
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Feb 21, 2017 18:13
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