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TheChirurgeon posted:If I recall correctly, it's based on some older analysis done for The Hidden Game of Football that looked at the value of yards and yards toward a first down. I haven't read it, but intuitively it makes sense that not every completion is a success--anything that doesn't get you a first down on third down or fourth down is easy, but also any 0-yard completion, and I expect the numbers probably come from the chances of getting a first down based on the yardage gained on the play--e.g. your chances of getting a first down if you get 45% or more of the required yards on first down, etc. That was my guess, but I was curious if there was an actual analysis of this I had not seen. Its an interesting concept. I would imagine it would involve finding the correlation between percentage of the first down yardage picked up on 1st/2nd/3rd down and what the corresponding percentage of successfully picking up the first down on that possession is. That is, it was probably found that picking up 45% of the yardage to a first down on 1st down is the tipping point of being more likely than not to pick up the first.
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Feb 21, 2017 22:58
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Cousins over Cam is caste football as hell.
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Feb 21, 2017 22:59
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TheChirurgeon posted:If I recall correctly, it's based on some older analysis done for The Hidden Game of Football that looked at the value of yards and yards toward a first down. I haven't read it, but intuitively it makes sense that not every completion is a success--anything that doesn't get you a first down on third down or fourth down is easy, but also any 0-yard completion, and I expect the numbers probably come from the chances of getting a first down based on the yardage gained on the play--e.g. your chances of getting a first down if you get 45% or more of the required yards on first down, etc. Yeah, it's taken directly from that book and buried on their methodology page that I honestly don't know how to get to other then from their First time here? page... which is itself buried. Man is their website design ancient / bad: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods DVOA is based on a further breakdown of that, where you can have fractions of a success (ie, getting 8 yards on 3rd and 10 is better then 0 yards, especially if you're in a situation where you have to or it'll make you consider going for it).
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Feb 21, 2017 23:01
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I think Kirk Cousins showed enough this past year to call him a top 10 QB, meanwhile Cam had a terrible season marred by injuries and poor play by his whole offensive cast, hard to say who is better at this point
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Feb 21, 2017 23:02
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Jiminy Christmas! Shoes! posted:I think Brady's "leadership" skills are more about work ethic and preparation than anything he says on the sidelines. His mere presence inspires more than anything the 31 other QBs in the league could ever say. There is only one GOAT and if you know you have him on your team, you will believe that the impossible (like a 25 point comeback with ~18min left to play in the Super Bowl) is possible. The other guys than just have to verbalize these thoughts.
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Feb 21, 2017 23:02
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 no.. days off?
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Feb 21, 2017 23:03
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SHOAH NUFF posted:I think Kirk Cousins showed enough this past year to call him a top 10 QB, meanwhile Cam had a terrible season marred by injuries and poor play by his whole offensive cast, hard to say who is better at this point The NFL let teams have all kinds of liberties with Cam so he spent the whole season concussed (and with a bad shoulder I think?) Also his weapons were laughable bad, as was his offensive line Like imagine if the NFL let Cousins take the beatings Cam does
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Feb 21, 2017 23:05
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fishing with the fam posted:That was my guess, but I was curious if there was an actual analysis of this I had not seen. Its an interesting concept. I would imagine it would involve finding the correlation between percentage of the first down yardage picked up on 1st/2nd/3rd down and what the corresponding percentage of successfully picking up the first down on that possession is. That is, it was probably found that picking up 45% of the yardage to a first down on 1st down is the tipping point of being more likely than not to pick up the first. I assumed it was that if you pick up 45% or more of the yardage you are more likely to make it than a given 1st and 10 - i.e., did you improve or reduce your odds of making the 1st down compared to the play before?
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Feb 21, 2017 23:05
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Imagine if Cam were as protected as Brady Does anyone have that gif of him kicking and thrashing on the ground whining for a flag and getting one? From years back by now
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Feb 21, 2017 23:05
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SHOAH NUFF posted:I think Kirk Cousins showed enough this past year to call him a top 10 QB, meanwhile Cam had a terrible season marred by injuries and poor play by his whole offensive cast, hard to say who is better at this point I know its crazy, but I'm gonna go with the one that has an MVP on his resume.
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Feb 21, 2017 23:06
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Intruder posted:The NFL let teams have all kinds of liberties with Cam so he spent the whole season concussed (and with a bad shoulder I think?) Yeah. It's not crazy to say Cousins is better than Cam but you have to take health and surrounding cast into account. Redskins quietly have great offensive talent, both OL and pass catchers. Jay Gruden is also head and shoulders above Shula as an offensive playcaller, the Skins offense is really well designed and executed
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Feb 21, 2017 23:06
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Kirk Cousins on the Panthers this season would look like Blaine Gabbert.
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Feb 21, 2017 23:07
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What would Brock Osweiler look like on the Panthers? Let's switch him and Cam and find out
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Feb 21, 2017 23:07
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If you were arguing who would be more likely to produce more next year, I could see and probably agree with arguing for Kirk, because Washington's offense is a fantastic unit. But at the same time, it's also really obvious that Cam is a better quarterback. See also the last like six? seven? years of Philip Rivers compared to most other quarterbacks.
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Feb 21, 2017 23:10
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SHOAH NUFF posted:The Skins offense is really well designed and executed
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Feb 21, 2017 23:10
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89 posted:That poo poo is about to blow up in a few weeks when Free Agency hits. The Skins have $60m in cap space, I'm sure they can make something work (though it would cost nearly half of that to franchise Cousins again)
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Feb 21, 2017 23:15
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Intruder posted:Like imagine if the NFL let Cousins take the beatings Cam does It wouldn't happen because Kirk Cousins isn't dumb enough to put himself in those situations.
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Feb 21, 2017 23:21
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Blitz7x posted:During the Superbowl the camera panned over Brady and she said "that guy is kinda cute, who is that" so I've already deleted Facebook and hit the gym and now I'm lawyering up As a Raiders fan your only concern should be whether or not she's willing and able to pay bail.
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Feb 21, 2017 23:36
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The Lions have hired erstwhile Texans offensive coordinator George Godsey as a DEFENSIVE assistant. Another ex-Patriot. 
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Feb 21, 2017 23:45
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lol Godsey got a job somewhere Then again the last terrible coordinator the Lions hired after the Texans fired him worked out pretty well IIRC
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Feb 21, 2017 23:50
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Jiminy Christmas! Shoes! posted:
That's right by the Jupiter island bridge. Holy poo poo it was actually him. I drove by that boat Saturday
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Feb 22, 2017 00:06
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Kalli posted:Here's some nerd stuff instead if you don't wanna "debate" Kirk vs Cam This is what I mean. Fire Harbaugh NOW!!! He's a useless pea brain coach. Let one of these bad teams whose fans are always telling me "Oh we'll take Harbaugh he's a great coach" yeah send him to the Jags and watch him not be able to do crap not inheriting an amazing roster like Harbaugh did. Also Flacco is done too.
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Feb 22, 2017 01:49
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Jiminy Christmas! Shoes! posted:That's not how the salary floor works. It doesn't apply to a single season, it looks back over a four year window. And if the team doesn't spend the money, it just goes to the NFLPA. lovely, there goes my hope of the Browns absorbing every awful contract in the NFL
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Feb 22, 2017 02:01
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DariusLikewise posted:lovely, there goes my hope of the Browns absorbing every awful contract in the NFL They'll do it anyway
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Feb 22, 2017 02:03
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https://twitter.com/SageRosenfels18/status/834201507742482433 There you go, Seahawks fans.
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Feb 22, 2017 02:07
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They'll have to overpay to get players to sign there, and that means they'll have to cut some guys in 2 years when those guys bust. The question is, do they have the FO and coaches to become the Raiders or the Jaguars in the meantime?
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Feb 22, 2017 02:08
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Chichevache posted:As a Raiders fan your only concern should be whether or not she's willing and able to pay bail. She'll wait for me, man
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Feb 22, 2017 02:10
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Coldforge posted:https://twitter.com/SageRosenfels18/status/834201507742482433 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j3_hi7gOjE0
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Feb 22, 2017 02:36
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Cutler is underrated.
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Feb 22, 2017 02:58
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fsif posted:Cutler is underrated. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MAg-wRp8U-k Same ol' Jay.
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Feb 22, 2017 03:18
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TheChirurgeon posted:this but unironically that's probably my favorite stat, i wish they had it for historical reference because i'd love to see where cutler is vsother qbs
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Feb 22, 2017 03:20
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Coldforge posted:https://twitter.com/SageRosenfels18/status/834201507742482433 It was meant to be, Coldforge.
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Feb 22, 2017 06:51
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Shangri-Law School posted:The Lions have hired erstwhile Texans offensive coordinator George Godsey as a DEFENSIVE assistant. Another ex-Patriot. Defensive Assistant - Special Projects. I wouldn't freak, who even knows what the gently caress he actually will do.
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Feb 22, 2017 09:17
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Rockin' the Hulk Hogan 'stache.
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Feb 22, 2017 11:27
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So, uhm, the Jets literally used burner phones to circumvent the "no tampering" rule with Revis - but somehow Goodell has no issue with that? http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/f...=mmehta+twitter Dock them at least 2 first round picks, because using burner phones and having a "no paper trail" guideline clearly means they broke rules with malice aforethought and should be punished accordingly.
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Feb 22, 2017 11:36
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otoh... punish the Pats for this.
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Feb 22, 2017 13:19
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Could anyone tell me why the bears offense looked so great under marc trestman for one year(2013) then dropped off quicker than dabbing? FFS even josh mccown looked like a pro bowler under that offense. was it just a situation not unlike chip kelly where the offense was figured out and failed to adjust? Edit: looking at pff and man that offense was stacked. cutler, prime forte, prime marshall, good alshon jeffery, and bennett. Chromatic fucked around with this message at 13:26 on Feb 22, 2017 |
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Feb 22, 2017 13:24
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Chromatic posted:Could anyone tell me why the bears offense looked so great under marc trestman for one year(2013) then dropped off quicker than dabbing? FFS even josh mccown looked like a pro bowler under that offense. It really had a lot going for it.
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Feb 22, 2017 13:31
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GaussianCopula posted:So, uhm, the Jets literally used burner phones to circumvent the "no tampering" rule with Revis - but somehow Goodell has no issue with that?
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Feb 22, 2017 14:35
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GaussianCopula posted:So, uhm, the Jets literally used burner phones to circumvent the "no tampering" rule with Revis - but somehow Goodell has no issue with that? on the other hand though, revis was punishment enough and they're still forced to be the jets
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Feb 22, 2017 14:57
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